Chinese Economics Thread

crobato

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China aiming to make world's fastest rail link: state media

2 days ago

SHANGHAI (AFP) — China is aiming to make a high-speed rail line linking Beijing and Shanghai the world's fastest when it opens in 2012, state media reported Monday.

Chinese-designed trains capable of speeds up to 380 kilometres (236 miles) an hour will make the 1,300-kilometre journey in about four hours, the China Daily quoted Zhang Shuguang, the Ministry of Railways' deputy chief engineer, as saying.

Previously the trains had been planned to run at up 350 kilometres an hour, the same speed as the current generation of Chinese "bullet" rail services, and take about five hours.

The quickest trains can currently travel between Beijing and Shanghai is 10 hours.

Construction has begun on the new rail line and is expected to be completed within four years, the report said, citing the ministry.

The line is part of China's ambitious plans to build more than 12,000 kilometers of high speed railway to connect its major urban centers.

The government has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to upgrade its rail system by 2020, with the Beijing-Shanghai line being the first of the major north-south high speed lines.

All the new lines will be double track and by 2020 China should have separate networks for passenger travel and cargo, state media previously reported.

Last month China opened a high speed line linking Beijing and the eastern port city of Tianjin.

The Ministry of Railways said then the 120-kilometre railway was the first in the world in which trains could travel at 350 kilometres an hour.

Japan's Shinkansen "bullet train" and Siemen's ICE train average about 300 kilometres an hour, but a new version of the Japanese train, the Fastech 360Z, is expected to operate at 360 kilometres an hour when it enters service.

China already has a train service capable of reaching speeds of more than 430 kilometres an hour, the MAGLEV line between central Shanghai and its main international airport.

However, China does not count that as the world's fastest regular train, as the futuristic technology sees it float above the rail line using magnetic levitation.
 

antimatter

Banned Idiot
investing in financial instituions has no fundamental values at all. You risk all those just try to make a buck or 2??

You are not controlling the market share, you are not gaining technical abilities.

when foreign companies enter the chinese market they want to control their share in CHina, they are not satisfy just invest a bit here and there on the chinese stock market..

example of that, coca-cola wants to gain control the juice market in china.

BEIJING - Coca-Cola said on Wednesday it has offered to buy Huiyuan, China's largest fruit juice company, for the equivalent of US$2.4 billion in cash, in what would be the second-largest acquisition in the US-based company's history.

If successful, the acquisition of Huiyuan would represent the largest purchase of a controlling stake in a Chinese company by a foreign company, according to Thomsom Reuters.

Coca-Cola intends to make an all-cash offer to purchase China Huiyuan Juice Group Limited, a Hong Kong-listed company that owns the Huiyuan juice business throughout China. The deal is part of a larger program to grow internationally through acquisitions.
 

crobato

Colonel
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Chinese auto brands gearing up for new challenges

Although local firms have a lot of catching up to do, big global players would be wrong to lower their guard

GRACE TIAN

Unlike Japan and the US, the world's two largest auto manufacturers which have seen their own car brands widely accepted at home and abroad, China still sees its automobile market dominated by foreign brands including Volkswagen, GM and Honda, though most of them are produced by their joint ventures (JVs) with local businesses.

It took China 20 years to transform itself from a land of bicycles to a huge automobile market. China's auto market has maintained a 20% to 30% annual growth rate for the past four years. With its output and sales topping 8.8 million and 8.79 million respectively last year, many media forecast that the sales figure would likely cross the 10-million mark this year if the growth rate is not lower than 14%.

Therefore, China would become the second country in the world whose auto sales exceed 10 million after the United States.

The numbers may be dizzying, yet it is still only half-true to say that China is a car manufacturing giant in its own right. Actually it is not Chinese companies but those foreign JVs that have manufactured most of the passenger cars in the country during the past few years. In other words, most of the cars made in China are actually not made by China.

Chery and Geely, which are regarded as the national pride for homegrown cars, were the only two wholly Chinese-owned automakers on the list of the top 10 passenger carmakers in terms of sales in China since 2005.

However, their rankings have been lowered to the seventh and 10th in July 2008 from fourth and ninth at the end 2007 [see chart].

Meanwhile, the market share of domestic car brands has also seen a significant drop since late 2007 after hitting a record high of 30.6% at the beginning of 2007.

But by December 2007, the domestic brands only took up 18.62%, a record low in the past few years.

Although the share rebounded to around 24% in the first half of 2008, we may not be overly optimistic about the situation.

The continuously rising raw material costs and oil prices have certainly added to the challenges of the Chinese auto market. However, the increasing incomes of urban households and falling prices of all types of vehicles resulting from price competition among the auto manufacturers in the country have jointly caused the shrinking of the low-end car market, the stronghold of Chinese automakers like Chery and Geely.

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacdhturers, sales of cars with emissions lower than one litre saw slow growth in the first half of this year to 410,800, a slight increase of 0.17% year on year, while SUV sales volume, by contrast, increased by 42% to 224,400 units over the same period last year. It is easily seen that the competition has been gradually moved to the middle- and high-end segments, which most domestic automakers are not ready to touch yet.

Moreover, the development of Chinese automakers has stagnated, in terms of financial strengths, R&D capabilities, production scales, as well as branding and marketing strategies.

Though domestic automakers are also seeking overseas expansion, the progress is much slower than their foreign counterparts' massive foray into China. It can be estimated that in a short period of time, these Chinese automakers are unable to go head-to-head with those foreign big names in international markets in an all-round way.

However, it is notable that the Chinese auto manufacturers, unlike seven years ago when they first joined the auto industry without much government's blessing, are now expected to enjoy more favourable policies, as the Chinese government has realised that the country needs more independent innovation and brand building, two factors that are crucial for Chinese companies to compete with those well-established MNCs in the future.

China's auto market is transforming itself into a highly competitive one from a purely lucrative one, which may temporarily bring trouble to the local automakers.

However, this may not necessarily be a bad omen. The recent sales tax cut on small cars, though the direct economic benefit is minimal, is a positive signal from the central government and helped boost the confidence of Chinese automakers.

Foreign auto giants may not think Chinese brands would pose any serious threat to them. However, the great potential of the Chinese carmakers such as Chery and Geely cannot be underestimated. It is the opportune time for the Chinese players to brace for more upcoming challenges and grab a bigger share in the global market.

The contributor is the Research Director and Managing Consultant with China Knowledge Consulting. The firm provides corporate services, financial advisory, marketing strategy and recruitment to foreign businesses seeking business opportunities in China. Opinions expressed are her own.

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crobato

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China's central bank is in need of capital.


It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Those investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars into the strong yuan, casting a spotlight on the central bank’s tiny capital base. The bank’s capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying spree, despite private warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

Now the central bank needs an infusion of capital. Central banks can, of course, print more money, but that would stoke inflation. Instead, the People’s Bank of China has begun discussions with the finance ministry on ways to shore up its capital, said three people familiar with the discussions who insisted on anonymity because the subject is delicate in China.

The central bank’s predicament has several repercussions. For one, it makes it less likely that China will allow the yuan to continue rising against the dollar, say central banking experts. This could heighten trade tensions with the United States. The Bush administration and many Democrats in Congress have sought a stronger yuan to reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exports and trim the American trade deficit.

The central bank has been the main advocate within China for a stronger yuan. But it now finds itself increasingly beholden to the finance ministry, which has tended to oppose a stronger yuan. As the yuan slips in value, China’s exports gain an edge over the goods of other countries.

The two bureaucracies have been ferocious rivals. Accepting an injection of capital from the finance ministry could reduce the independence of the central bank, said Eswar S. Prasad, the former division chief for China at the International Monetary Fund.

“Central banks hate doing that because it puts them more under the thumb of the finance ministry,” he said.

Mr. Prasad said that during his trips to Beijing on behalf of the I.M.F., he had repeatedly cautioned China over the enormous scale of its holdings of American bonds, emphasizing that it left China vulnerable to losses from either a strengthening of the yuan or from a rise in American interest rates. When interest rates rise, the prices of bonds fall.

Officials at the central bank declined to comment, while finance ministry officials did not respond to calls or questions via fax seeking comment. Data in a study by the Bank of International Settlements based in Basel, Switzerland, sometimes called the central bank for central banks, shows that many central banks had small capital bases relative to foreign reserves at the end of 2002, though few were as low as the People’s Bank of China.

Given the poor performance of foreign bonds, the Chinese government could decide to shift some of its foreign exchange reserves into global stock markets.

The central bank started making modest purchases of foreign stocks last winter, but has kept almost all of its reserves in bonds, like other central banks.

The finance ministry, however, has pushed for investments in overseas stocks. Last year, it wrested control of the $200 billion China Investment Corporation, which had been bankrolled by the central bank. That corporation’s most publicized move, a $3 billion investment in the Blackstone Group in May of last year, has lost more than 43 percent of its value.

The central bank’s difficulties do not, by themselves, pose a threat to the economy, economists agree. The government has ample resources and is running a budget surplus. Most likely, the finance ministry would simply transfer bonds of other Chinese government agencies to the bank to increase its capital. But even in a country that strongly discourages criticism of its economic policies, hints of dissatisfaction are appearing over China’s foreign investments.

For instance, a Chinese blogger complained last month, “It is as if China has made a gift to the United States Navy of 200 brand new aircraft carriers.”

Bankers estimate that $1 trillion of China’s total foreign exchange reserves of $1.8 trillion are in American securities. With aircraft carriers costing up to $5 billion apiece, $1 trillion would, in theory, buy 200 of them.

By buying United States bonds, the Chinese government has been investing a large chunk of the country’s savings in assets earning just 3 percent annually in dollars. And those low returns turn into real declines of about 10 percent a year after factoring in inflation and the yuan’s appreciation against the dollar.

The yuan has risen 21 percent against the dollar since China stopped pegging its currency to the dollar in July 2005.

The actual declines in value of the central bank’s various investments are a carefully guarded state secret.

Still China finds itself hemmed in. If it were to curtail its purchases of dollar-denominated securities drastically, the dollar would likely fall and American interest rates could soar.

Along with Treasuries, China has invested heavily in mortgage-backed bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the struggling mortgage finance giants that are sponsored by the United States government. Standard & Poor’s estimates China’s holdings at $340 billion.

Some bond traders suspect that the central bank has scaled back its purchases of these securities, as have China’s commercial banks. But the central bank trades this debt through many third parties in many countries, making its activity opaque to outside analysts.

The central bank has gone to great lengths to maintain its foreign purchases. The money to buy foreign bonds has come from the reserves required that commercial banks must deposit with the central bank. In effect, China’s commercial banks have been lending the central bank more than $1 trillion at an interest rate of less than 2 percent.

To keep the banks strong when they were getting such little interest on their reserves, the central bank has kept deposit rates low. The gap between what banks are paying on deposits and the rates they are charging ordinary customers to borrow is several percentage points. This amounts to a transfer of wealth from ordinary Chinese savers to the central bank and on to Americans who are selling their debt to the Chinese.

The central bank is now under considerable pressure to reduce the commercial banks’ reserve requirements to encourage growth as the Chinese economy shows signs of slowing.

Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese central banking at Northwestern University, said that when he visited the People’s Bank of China for a series of meetings this summer, he was surprised by how many officials resented the institution’s losses.

He said the officials blamed the United States and believed the controversial assertions set forth in the book “Currency War,” a Chinese best seller published a year ago. The book suggests that the United States deliberately lured China into buying its securities knowing that they would later plunge in value.

“A lot of policy makers in China, at least midlevel policy makers, believe this,” Mr. Shih said.
 

crobato

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The most watched TV show on Earth.

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2008 Beijing Olympics Set Global TV Mark
Nielsen: 4.7B viewers watched some portion of 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.
By John Eggerton -- Broadcasting & Cable, 9/5/2008 3:22:00 PM

Nielsen Media Research said the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games drew the largest global TV audience in history.
2008 Beijing Olympic Games

According to the company, between the Aug. 8 opening ceremonies and the extinguishing of the flame Aug. 24, 4.7 billion viewers, or 70% of everybody on the planet, watched some portion of the Games.

That topped the previous record of 3.9 billion for the 2004 Athens Games.

The Chinese share was the sort of number network programmers can only dream of, with 94% of the nation's most populous country tuning in.

It was also the most-viewed show in U.S. TV history, with 211 million watching some portion of the Games and an average daily audience of 27 million, Nielsen said.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well Fall is here and as predicted the inflation has come down, Export gone up and Capital investment gone up. The economy is in good shape
From Financial Times

Chinese inflation falls sharply
By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: September 10 2008 04:32 | Last updated: September 10 2008 20:01

China’s inflation rate dropped sharply in August for a fourth month, giving policymakers – who have been focused on battling rising prices for the past year – more room to boost the economy if growth begins to slow sharply.

Consumer price inflation dropped from 6.3 per cent in July and a peak of 8.7 per cent in February to 4.9 per cent last month. The figure, which was well below analysts’ forecasts, was the lowest since June 2007.

China on track for gradual slowdown - Aug-25Chinese trade data reduce slowdown fears - Aug-11Editorial comment: China’s next gold - Aug-11S&P raises China’s debt rating - Aug-01Lex: China and commodities - Jul-31WTO rules against China over tariffs - Jul-19Although factory price inflation nudged up further to 10.1 per cent last month from 10 per cent in July, economists said the new figures showed that China was close to overcoming a spike in consumer prices that had led the government to impose tough controls on bank credit.

Chinese authorities have used tighter monetary policy to try to engineer a gradual slowdown in the economy, which was growing at an annualised rate of nearly 12 per cent at the end of last year. However an increasing number of voices in Beijing are suggesting the measures have gone too far and are calling for new policies to boost growth.

Policy shifts under discussion include a further relaxation of the quotas on lending by commercial banks and increases in public spending.

“There are increasing noises that this tightening policy has lasted too long, and more and more worries about growth skidding seriously,” said Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered, who predicts growth will drop to 8.6 per cent in 2009, from 10.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2008.

The drop in consumer inflation also gives the authorities more space to increase energy prices, which are well below those in many developed countries.

Other government statistics released on Wednesday indicated a softening in economic activity, although they did not suggest a decline in growth.

Exports increased by 21.1 per cent in August year on year, though they were down from an increase of 26.9 per cent in July, while imports increased by 23.1 per cent, down from July’s 33.7 per cent rise. The trade surplus reached a record $28.7bn.

Fixed-asset investment increased by 28.1 per cent in the year to August, slightly lower than July’s 29.3 per cent rise.

Many economists argue consumption and investment figures show economic activity remains robust, though there have been a few recent warning signs of potential problems, including falling car sales and an increasingly sluggish property market.
 
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crobato

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The Greeks and the Chinese
Doing business for aeons

Aug 21st 2008 | ATHENS AND BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
The lofty theory, and tough reality, of a link between two peoples who have always known the meaning of diaspora

Daphne Tolis


IT IS an easy speech to write. At any meeting between dignitaries from Greece and China, dutiful reference is made to the two nations’ ancient cultures, both of which left a tangible legacy in the shape of high-quality ceramics, sculptures and the musings of poets and philosophers. A bit more daringly, it might be noted that the two nations have been pinching one another’s secrets for at least 1,500 years—since Christian monks smuggled silkworm eggs from China to Byzantium in hollow canes.

And anyone who has the patience to peruse government websites will discover that 2008 is “Hellenic Year in China”—as the larger nation (by a factor of more than 100) succeeds the smaller as host of a sporting festival that began in Greece. Beijing’s theatre-goers are duly being treated to a new interpretation of the classical play, “Medea”, by Dimitris Papaioannou, a Greek director whose dazzling shows began and ended the 2004 Olympics. And George Koumentakis, who put together the music for the 2004 games, has gracious things to say about the Beijing opening—“subtle rather than ostentatious, worthy of an emerging superpower that feels quite comfortable with its past.”

But look away from those diplomatic dinners and gala performances, and consider the real lives of people, rich and poor, with an eye for the chances offered by a globalising world. It turns out that the Chinese and the Greeks are interacting in all sorts of hard-headed ways, never dreamed of by a cultural attaché or choreographer.

Most obviously, quite a few Greek shipowners have become billionaires since 2004 thanks to the “China trade”: the transport of coal, oil, iron ore and other bulk commodities which stoke China’s growth. Last year Greek ships carried about 60% of China’s imports of raw materials. Greek owners have poured a sizeable percentage of their profits back into China in the form of orders for new ships. With the big state-owned Chinese yards now working at full capacity, small private ones have entered the game—leaving many a bemused Greek buyer stranded in the Chinese boondocks, wondering whether his would-be suppliers really can bang a ship together.

Although this growth may be starting to slow—bulk freight rates are down 30% from a peak in May—the Greek shipping industry will continue benefiting from long-term charter deals with existing customers. As one Greek banker says, “this has been a once-in-a-century shipping boom.”

The Greek government, too, is deeply involved in business with China. In June Cosco, the biggest Chinese state-owned shipping company, won a tender to build and operate a new container terminal at the port of Piraeus. A 35-year concession gives China access to a strategic hub for exports to Western Europe and the emerging markets of the Black Sea. The deal should bring investment of more than €600m ($900m) and create 1,000 dockers’ jobs. “The Chinese were desperate for a foothold in the Mediterranean and we were able to provide it,” purrs a Greek official.

For a much grittier slice of Sino-Hellenic reality, visit some of the poor parts of Athens, or certain Greek islands, where Chinese retailers—selling cheap consumer goods, especially clothes—have become part of the urban landscape.

The local Hellenes are at once bemused, suspicious and surreptitiously grateful. Since 1990, once-homogenous Greece has received a vast influx of labour migrants from ex-communist Europe, Africa and Asia. But the Chinese, mostly from the south-eastern provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian, are unlike all the others—they don’t come as cheap labourers, but as small entrepreneurs with capital of their own. The rigour of life in their home regions has made them pretty robust: those areas were dirt-poor in the final years of the Maoist era but boomed after being declared special economic zones. And just like many Greek islands, that bit of China has a long memory of sending its brightest sons overseas to seek their fortunes.

Compared with the Albanian builders and Filipino nurses who also live in Athens, the city’s Chinese community is elusive. The lanterns that mark out Chinese shops are easy to spot—but the number of Chinese people visible on the street, or even at the till, is small.
A rumour mill gone crazy

This “invisibility” fuels many myths, says Tracey Rosen, a doctoral student who is studying the 30,000 or so Chinese who live in Greece. There are rumours that all their merchandise is made on ships on the high seas, where no labour laws apply, and that it can be dangerous—televisions that explode, underwear that gives you a rash. On Crete, says Ms Rosen, local Greeks rarely admit going to Chinese stores; they say the only customers are other poor immigrants. But older Greek women, in particular, do quietly patronise the Chinese, often getting clothes for daughters and granddaughters whose extravagance risks busting the family budget. In some contexts, the words “cheap” and “Chinese” are interchangeable. When a Greek electronics chain tells its customers that “we’ve become Chinese!” that means a sale is on.

With no more than minimal Greek, the Chinese have little to do with the local police, and get scant help when their cash or merchandise is stolen. Most retailers are young couples who leave their children in the care of grandparents back in China, and their life in Greece can be hard.

On the road from the Cretan port of Heraklion to the south coast, there is a Chinese shop in almost every settlement—even, for example, in Agia Varvara, whose other features are one paved intersection, a bread shop and a garage. The young retailer from Wenzhou in Zhejiang province laments, in a south Chinese twang, that business is “pretty bad”—and his neighbour, the Greek baker, rather pointedly concurs.

But some Cretans have warmer words for the newcomers. “We are all children under God,” declares a local lady in a village near Rethymnon. She likes the fact that the Chinese are clean and polite—and feels sorry for the ordinary Chinese vendors in the local street-market who seem to be working under the sway of a rich and powerful compatriot.

In kinder moments, Greeks recall the deep commonality between all people who know the bittersweet experience of diaspora—an experience that involves responding nimbly to every opportunity, in the knowledge that it may end very quickly. One example: the hardy folk from the Greek island of Kefalonia who migrated, after 1900, to Manchuria, where they flourished in the liquor and property business. Their world collapsed in 1949 when the Communists took power.

Sociology and economics aside, any relationship between two nations also comes down to individuals who straddle the gap in surprising ways. Take Ioannis Solos, a young practitioner of traditional medicine from the Greek town of Agrinion who lives in Beijing. Having studied for five years under top Chinese professors, he now co-writes learned papers on Eastern medicine in Mandarin, drawing on a deep knowledge of ancient Chinese philosophy and cosmology. “I’ve gradually come to realise that Chinese thought is very simple and very profound,” he says. “When I was a child in Greece, my friends called me o kinezos—the Chinese—but they didn’t know how prophetic the nickname was.”

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crobato

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Probe finds 20 percent of China milk companies in scandal

By Ben Blanchard



SHIJIAZHUANG, China (Reuters) - Twenty percent of Chinese dairy firms probed in the wake of a baby milk health scare have been found to have produced melamine-tainted formula, state media reported on Tuesday.


Chinese quality officials last week ordered a nationwide probe into all baby milk powders after it was reported that dozens of children had developed kidney stones after drinking tainted formula produced by the Sanlu Group.

Two infants have since died and more than 1,200 diagnosed with kidney illness in a growing scandal that authorities have warned may be yet to peak.

The head of the state-owned company has been sacked.

The results of the government-led probe announced on Tuesday showed that Sanlu Group, which has been the focus of public anger over the scandal, is by far from the only offending company.

Out of 109 dairy producers checked, 22 had been found to have produced batches of milk contaminated with melamine, including Beijing Olympic Games supplier Yili and other major brands, state television said, citing China's quality watchdog.

State-owned Sanlu, 43 percent owned by New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra, topped the list of offenders with all 11 batches checked found to be tainted with melamine, a banned toxin linked to pet deaths in the United States last year.

Hong Kong-listed Mengniu Dairy was rated as the seventh worst, with three out of 28 batches shown to be contaminated with melamine. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, a Shanghai-listed dairy firm and Beijing Games sponsor, was also named.

The 69 tainted batches out of 491 tested "would be taken off the shelves, sealed, recalled and destroyed," the report said, promising "serious" punishment to those found responsible.

All Shanghai-listed dairy stocks fell their 10 percent limit in early trade but recovered some of their losses later in the day.

CHAIRWOMAN SACKED

Melamine is rich in nitrogen, an element often used to measure protein, and can be used to disguise diluted milk. It is the same additive which caused the deaths of pets in the United States last year from contaminated pet food.

The Municipal Party Committee of Shijiazhuang, capital of northern Hebei province and headquarters of Sanlu, sacked the company's board chairwoman and general manager, Tian Wenhua, as hundreds of angry parents queued outside the company's offices on Tuesday.

Tian "bore very large responsibility" for the quality scare, state media portal Chinanews.com said in a brief statement on its website, citing the government committee.

Sanlu last week halted production after investigators announced they had found the problem, but the company had been receiving complaints in March that babies' urine was discolored and that some had been admitted to hospital, officials said.

Local Chinese officials acted last week only after the New Zealand government contacted Beijing, New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark said on Monday.

China's Health Ministry has pledged free health care for babies sickened by the contaminated milk powder but also warned the numbers of those affected could rise sharply, Xinhua news agency said.

"... the number of parents who take their children for medical check-ups could rise drastically in the future," said Deputy Health Minister Ma Xiaowei, according to Xinhua.

Hebei police arrested two dealers on Tuesday for selling adulterated milk to Sanlu, bringing to four the total so far arrested, Xinhua said. One of the newly arrested men ran a farm that produced 3 tons of milk a day.

Police had detained another 22 people for questioning.

Dairy industry experts said that China's dairy industry had grown too quickly for safety administration to keep up.

"There are no uniform standards and there are loopholes in legal oversight," Lao Bing, manager of the Shanghai-based Mingtai Dairy Industry Sales Fund, told Reuters.

China has been beset by scandals about toxic and unsafe products in recent years. In 2004, at least 13 babies died after drinking fake milk powder that had no nutritional value.

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