Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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So during the two years of the pandemic,
US average growth is projected to be 1.9% (-3.5% followed by 5.6%)
China average growth is 5.2% (2.3% followed by 8.1%)
Overall China's growth beats the US by about 3.3 percentage points, which is very similar to 2019 when China grew at 6% and the US at 2.3%. I dare say China would have come out a much bigger winner if it had wanted to. The US gov't has been doing everything it can in the past couple years to rev up growth, to the point where it has now created an inflation problem for itself, whereas China has been cracking down on economic activity like mad (especially 2021). If each economy had been left to its natural devices, China's Covid-free economy would have outperformed by a much greater margin.
The quarter-by-quarter slowdown is a bit worrisome, due to regulatory clampdown, electricity shortage and anti-Covid policies. I was expecting anywhere between 8.5%-10% growth rate earlier last year. I think this year the policies will be pro-growth, particularly the fiscal policy. There might also be some adjustment in Covid policy, but it's hard to say.
But yeah, overall growth figures are not bad, beat the US growth comfortably. We will see how this year will turn out.
@weig2000 bro do you trust the numbers coming from the US, from what @gadgetcool5 posted I think the drop in 2020 is greater than -3.5% more like double at -6.8%? My take since the US is 70% is related to service industry, shutting down the economy for a month had a devastating cascading effect. With major high export product like Boeing is having issue well before covid happen?
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Guys, we really ought to be looking at the long-term picture. All that which China has done in 2021, is to ensure a fairer, more level playing ground not just for the Chinese people, but also for companies. These are long overdue problems that urgently need to be solved. The reason why China got around to do them in 2021, was because due to the pandemic all of its major competitors are in a shithole they dug for themselves and China can AFFORD to be slow and sacrifice a little growth for higher quality growth in the future.
Merely pursuing good numbers is no longer the priority of the Chinese government. Everything it is doing today, will pay off in the future.
Merely pursuing good numbers is no longer the priority of the Chinese government. Everything it is doing today, will pay off in the future.
It's a delicate balancing act. China can't afford for the economy to completely lose steam and momentum, and China also doesn't want growth at the expense of fairness and environment. Hence you see seemingly contradictory actions taken by the Chinese government, such as the cracking down of big real estate developers while at the same time delaying property taxes implementation, or injecting liquidity into the economy just as it announces 8.1% growth for the past year.
Like Laozi once said, "治大国若烹小鲜", or in English "To govern a large country is analagous to cooking a delicate cuisine".
You need subtlety and nuance. Don't be like the Americans.
Like Laozi once said, "治大国若烹小鲜", or in English "To govern a large country is analagous to cooking a delicate cuisine".
You need subtlety and nuance. Don't be like the Americans.
Your intuition about US numbers are spot on. The US economic data are mumbo-jumbo and getting more confusing over time. You can't exactly accuse them of faking data because they don't need to fake - they're just more innovative in defining the data, because the US economy is largely a service economy. Just like you can't accuse there are much corruption in the US simply because much of the corruptions are legalized.
antiterror13
Brigadier
IMF estimated that Chinese GDP nominal 2021 would be $16.64T ... more than $1T off
, well $1T is the size of ~ Mexico or Indonesia or 50% more than Taiwan Interesting how many % the Chinese defense spending would increase this year, lower or higher than 8.1% ? ... I'd bet 10-11% , thats in Yuan, in US$ would be easily 15%
IMF estimated that Chinese GDP nominal 2021 would be $16.64T ... more than $1T off
Interesting how many % the Chinese defense spending would increase this year, lower or higher than 8.1% ? ... I'd bet 10-11% , thats in Yuan, in US$ would be easily 15%
I have long looked at the Chinese GDP forecast from the US with quite some amusement. I'm not talking about medium or long term forecast such as 5-, 10-, 20-year out. I'm talking about usually next year forecast. Particularly when the forecast are for the side-by-side comparison with the US. It's always biased to one direction (and you clearly can guess which direction) for China. Thing is, I'm OK with forecast error and everything, but when you compare the two respective forecast for China and the US, they're usually clearly biased in two different directions, even against clear evidence. Like, in the last two months of last year, you still constantly saw nonsensical forecast like you quoted from IMF above.
It's almost like these kind of forecast are done with heavy dose of hopium.