Chinese Economics Thread

j17wang

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
Matheus S said:
Update:

Today, Chinese foreign trade data came out.

China's trade surplus soared to a record $676.4 billion.

The trade balance jumped almost 27 percent over the previous year. Imports and exports totaled US$6.05 trillion in 2021, up 30% from 2020. Among them, exports increased by 30% to US$3.36 trillion. Imports totaled US$2.69 trillion, an increase of 30%.

Between China and the US, Chinese exports surpassed its imports by a record $396.6 billion. The United States was China's third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade up nearly 29% to $755.6 billion.

Imports from China, in turn, increased 19.5% in December and ended 2021 with a growth of 30.1%, driven, in part, by rising commodity prices. The monthly data, however, was below the 31.7% registered in November and the market forecast of 24.2%.

With a positive balance of US$ 94.46 billion in December, the Chinese trade balance totaled a surplus of US$ 676.43 billion in 2021, above any other ever recorded. The monthly data also exceeded the expectations of economists consulted by The Wall Street Journal, who had expected a balance of US$ 77 billion.
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WTF, I always thought US would be #1? I guess both JPY and GER are ahead?
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
sndef888 said:
Does anyone have the numbers for China's 2021 GDP and predicted 2022 GDP?

Been seeing lots of conflicting answers, IMF says 2021 is 16.8 trillion (2021) and 18.46 trillion (2022) but that seems implausible as it would mean over 9% growth in 2022 isn't it?

Also saw someone saying it's 17.7 trillion for 2021
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The growth is based on Yuan denomination, my educated guess is that Yuan appreciated against USD in 2021
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01 Jan 2021 : 1 USD = 6.5317 Yuan
31 Dec 2021: 1 USD = 6.3721 Yuan

So, yuan appreciated by ~2.5% against USD in 2021
 
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K

kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
The growth is based on Yuan denomination, my educated guess is that Yuan appreciated against USD in 2021
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01 Jan 2021 : 1 USD = 6.5317 Yuan
31 Dec 2021: 1 USD = 6.3721 Yuan

So, yuan appreciated by ~2.5% against USD in 2021
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China's 2021 GDP announcement will be 10AM Monday Beijing. That would be 0200 GMT/9PM Sunday New York. Estimate is around 8% in CNY (and +2.5% currency appreciation in USD).
 
T

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
kentchang said:
China's 2021 GDP announcement will be 10AM Monday Beijing. That would be 0200 GMT/9PM Sunday New York. Estimate is around 8% in CNY (and +2.5% currency appreciation in USD).
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The rmb should appreciate faster to keep up with economic growth.
 
L

LesAdieux

Junior Member
kentchang said:
China's 2021 GDP announcement will be 10AM Monday Beijing. That would be 0200 GMT/9PM Sunday New York. Estimate is around 8% in CNY (and +2.5% currency appreciation in USD).
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the RMB has appreciated by 6.98% in 2021, from average 6.90 in 2020 to 6.45; the GDP deflator should be around 4.5%, the growth rate about 8%, so total nominal growth at 20%, 17.5~17.7 trillion, we'll find it out tomorrow.
 
X

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
Are the RMB inflation (I think it was around ~2%) and USD inflation (~7%) accounted in the exchange rate or not? My guess is that the latter is but RMB inflation should be added separately, if so then we are looking at around $18 trillion in nominal terms.
 
L

LesAdieux

Junior Member
xypher said:
Are the RMB inflation (I think it was around ~2%) and USD inflation (~7%) accounted in the exchange rate or not? My guess is that the latter is but RMB inflation should be added separately, if so then we are looking at around $18 trillion in nominal terms.
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no, but more general prices index, GDP deflator is used in GDP accounting. CPI is used in computing REER: real effective exchange rate.
 
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