bajingan
Senior Member
So a guy with an ugly mug like me got a chance to be an influencer lol
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
There are plenty.
The vast majority of the underdeveloped rural farming regions, mostly in the west of China, are at least a decade behind, comparing to the east, let alone the tier 1 metropolitans on the coast. I believe a big portion of the government's next round of poverty alleviation mandate is to boost development in this part of the country.
In these regions, many residents, including some living in small towns, still do not have access to the kind of roads, power grids, cellphone/internet, etc. that the rest of country now take as granted. A lot of the farmer residences built 30, 20 or even 10 years ago are not up to the building codes: lack of proper sewage and garbage disposal, insufficient thermal insulation, inadequat seismic-proof, etc. In some areas, clean water supply is also an issue to be addressed.
At the same time a lot need to be done to meet the carbon emission reduction goals. From replacing the coal burning power stations, to upgrading power grids, to installing more EV recharge stations, to improving energy efficiency of steel mills/oil refineries/etc, to adding insulation to existing residential and commercial buildings, just name a few. And it is going to happen all over the place in the country.
Even in the more developed, more urbanized east, cities, the smaller ones in particular, still need more and better public facilities: libraries, sport complex, community centers, care homes.
Most of these projects can easily become new sources of growth for the decades to come. Some of these will require public funding, while the others can attract investment from the private sector.
It says nothing about :
(1) China reasons for intentionally cutting back on steel productions.
(2) China cooling down the real estate.
(3) seasonal variation on manufacturing productions
(4) Nagative effects of Covid on its economy (even though China handle it well, it still has much negatives on the economy just like every other countries).
Of course China economic growth will suffer as China economy is interconnected with the rest of the world.
Just shipping alone is constraining China growth.
Instead it concentrates on the presumed negative effects of related industries due to the "problems" of the steel sector.
China is indeed starting to use monetary and fiscal policies to boost the economy. However we should not forget that the broader startegic direction of the Chinese economy remains the same
That is to divert property investment into other more productive sectors. This is already happening, however I think that the transition is getting too fast and China had to slow down.
Already in many cities, property sales and sale prices are down by double digits. This in turn generates the usual Western propaganda headlines about "China's collapse", but i see this more of a positive that the strategic direction of China is being followed (albeit a little too fast for its liking)
So the recipe for 2022 is, fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the downward pressure on gdp by the slowimg property sector. 2022 should have increased investment on hi-tech/manufacturing sectors
property prices dropping double digits is only a good thing for the long term. Lower property prices mean you need a lower mortgage, with a lower mortgage you either decrease workers costs or give workers more buying power. As a home owner I would definitely cry when my home drops double digits in value
But for society its so much better in the long run when the short term pain is over.Lower prices is a positive but not to drop too fast. Don't forget that a lot of loans have houses as collateral. Sudden 2-digit drop in prices could be a financial hazard if not properly managed.property prices dropping double digits is only a good thing for the long term. Lower property prices mean you need a lower mortgage, with a lower mortgage you either decrease workers costs or give workers more buying power. As a home owner I would definitely cry when my home drops double digits in value
In some areas I even saw a -30% in prices. This is definetely a financial risk which is why the government is now intervening.
In general, decreasing prices is the main direction. However, stability is also super important for the coming year (as per the recent economic work conference comments)
US-China gas deals defy tensions between world powers
USA gradually replacing Australia in LNG exports to China.
Probably LNG is one component of US-China trade deal.
That's a lot of LNG from USA by the way.
China to overtake Japan as largest LNG purchaser this year or next year and keep growing from here until 2040.
US is also growing its LNG exports and becoming one of the biggest LNG exporters.
USA gradually replacing Australia in LNG exports to China.
Probably LNG is one component of US-China trade deal.
That's a lot of LNG from USA by the way.
China to overtake Japan as largest LNG purchaser this year or next year and keep growing from here until 2040.
US is also growing its LNG exports and becoming one of the biggest LNG exporters.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The Western world counting on the US to takeover China so they can cut up China like a pie like they did after the Opium Wars and divvy up Chinese money for themselves. US allies believing in America as indispensable and exceptional are counting on it or else why would they sacrifice their trading relations with China now if they weren't expecting that kind of payoff in the future. The only freedom they care about in China is their freedom in China. They talk about China needing banking reforms as one of the major points that the West expects from China. Yeah the kind of banking reforms that allowed the US and Great Britain to pull money out easily from allied countries like what happened in the 2008 Western Financial Crisis that left those countries in dire financial default. Yeah they want China to follow like how the US and Great Britain get to decide which countries are to be sanctioned which also means they alone get to decide when to drop sanctions and get a jump ahead of everyone else on making the money like when they decided to drop sanctions on Libya and they got the best oil deals on Libyan crude that has been said to be the best quality oil in the world. When they accuse China of abusing technology, they're saying they want to dictate what technology China can and cannot develop but of course they're free to develop them as they wish. Translation they can only develop advance technology so they control who gets that technology and make sure they make all the money from licensing fees and royalties from people using "their"" technology. All the technologies they accuse China can't be trusted with are or will be the pillars of the economies of the top countries in the future. Look at Tiktok. Everything they accuse is what their social media companies are doing. What they're really complaining about is they want their social media companies influencing the world not China's. That's why the US is targeting everything that China is beating the US on. They don't want China in a position of power that they only want for themselves. It has nothing to do with what they say upfront why they're wary of China developing them. That's what they're talking about when they accuse China of going against "the world system..." A system designed to favor them.
It’s also the reason the US grooms the elites of foreign nations eg India so that those elites will have far more in common with the monied classes of the Hamptons than their own people.
A ‘country’ like Australia sacrificing its economy for the US is nothing since the elites of that country are basically Anglo American elites. Only the ppl suffer, and since when did liberal democracies care what the ppl think?
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