Chinese Economics Thread

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
More banking assets is not necessarily a good thing. Every dollar of asset is also a dollar of liability. China may have four times the population of America but the nominal GDP is only little over 70% of the US. And the per capita income is only one sixth of the US. rather China is able to better handle its bubble's compared to either the US or Japan remains to be seen.

This on the other hand is definitely a bad thing. China's slower growth is helping to keep inflation at bay. China once again is back at stimulating the economy. If inflation rises its going to be a much bigger problem than slower growth.

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There could as well be a differing sets of perspectives on these matters, which doesn't necessarily negate what you said, but both interpretations may not be mutually exclusive.

The size just reflects the depth and breadth of China's banking industry growth vis-a-vis that of US. China's banking concentration and intensity may also be an indicator of business expectation that continued growth are baked in, notwithstanding the relatively under-developed equity market. If business expects growth, debt is a cheaper route of financing overall compared to equity, as equity/ownership would grow proportionally, generally speaking, as business grows, but debt stays the same with the principal and interest so to speak.

From 2011 to 2021, China's economy grew roughly about 240% while housing prices in top 50 cities rose about 150%, compared to Japan's bubble in 1980's which saw their housing prices went up more than double to that of their economic growth. With the current situation in construction sector, it's only a good thing in a much larger overall picture. China will not be a repeat of Japan. These are all publicly available data so everybody can look them up.

Appreciating RMB means deflation within the Chinese border, boosting domestic purchasing power, resulting in a much bigger domestic market for FDI, while it means inflation for everybody else buying from China. The days of China exporting deflation is gradually turning over to a new chapter. Inflation, most likely, is not a China problem for a foreseeable future. One offshoot of generally stronger RMB is a path to gradual de-dollarization. That also means the mantra of breakneck growth growth growth jobs jobs jobs is coming to an end stage and China is re-orienting herself to a different trajectory. If the same mantra is still operative, we'd never saw a rolling blackouts.

As an economy grows larger and larger, growth rate naturally get less and less, as the base is getting much bigger and bigger.
It doesn't mean absolute RMB amounts added in ,on a yearly basis, get smaller, instead it's the opposite. It gets bigger.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Chinese government owns the banking sector. This means they have tools at their disposal other nations would only dream of.
If they wanted to they could just cut the debts, print like mad, or whatever. They can control the capital flow in the market to cut down inflation.

I am more concerned about what will be the next sources for growth after infrastructure in China like the high speed rail and metro systems are mostly finished in less than a decade's time. We already see signs of investment into the electric car industry. There were also attempts in the civilian aircraft industry but those have been much less successful.

Comparing Japan with China is nonsensical because both countries are worlds apart be it in population, land resources, or state configuration. Even if the average Chinese citizen only had half the wealth of the average US citizen China would still have an economy many times larger than the US.

I think the US GDP figures are inflated by things like their medical and education sectors, which are wildly inflated to a degree nowhere else in the world. They aren't worth that amount of capital. One only needs to travel to the US and look at their main cities to see how degraded everything is compared to "poor" little Japan for example. There is trash everywhere and people openly defecate on the street in some places. The supposed wealth of the US is, I think, a mirage which exists on paper and computer ledgers.
 

DarkStar

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Chinese government owns the banking sector. This means they have tools at their disposal other nations would only dream of.
If they wanted to they could just cut the debts, print like mad, or whatever. They can control the capital flow in the market to cut down inflation.

I am more concerned about what will be the next sources for growth after infrastructure in China like the high speed rail and metro systems are mostly finished in less than a decade's time. We already see signs of investment into the electric car industry. There were also attempts in the civilian aircraft industry but those have been much less successful.

Comparing Japan with China is nonsensical because both countries are worlds apart be it in population, land resources, or state configuration. Even if the average Chinese citizen only had half the wealth of the average US citizen China would still have an economy many times larger than the US.

I think the US GDP figures are inflated by things like their medical and education sectors, which are wildly inflated to a degree nowhere else in the world. They aren't worth that amount of capital. One only needs to travel to the US and look at their main cities to see how degraded everything is compared to "poor" little Japan for example. There is trash everywhere and people openly defecate on the street in some places. The supposed wealth of the US is, I think, a mirage which exists on paper and computer ledgers.
 
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