Chinese Economics Thread

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by Michael Pettis

Before starting on the subject of debt I wanted to make a quick reference to something sent to me by Charles Horner, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. I am glad to say that the overinvestment thesis is much more widely acknowledged today than it was even two or three years ago, but one myth, I think, is that most of the overinvestment excesses in China are concentrated in the real estate sector. I have always argued that it is infrastructure where the most amount of investment has been wasted.

Its impossible to prove one way or the other, but Horner sent me a paper in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, by Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg, with the rather alarming title “Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it”, which suggests why we need to be so worried about infrastructure spending in China – aside from the fact that the numbers are simply huge.

In the paper Flyvbjerg looks at infrastructure projects in a number of countries (not in China, though, because he needed decent data) and shows how the benefits of these projects are systematically overstated and the costs systematically understated. More important, he shows how these terrible results are simply the expected outcomes of the way infrastructure projects are typically designed and implemented.

It is not a very happy paper in general, but I am pretty sure that many people who read it probably had a thought similar to mine: if infrastructure spending can be so seriously mismanaged in relatively transparent systems with greater political accountability, what might happen in a country with a huge infrastructure boom stretching over decades, much less transparency, and very little political accountability? Isn’t the potential for waste vast?

Who knows, but it seems that Beijing is increasingly worried about that possibility. Here is an article from this week’s Caijing:

A golden but brief era for urban railway suppliers, builders and related companies across China appears to have ended in recent months. Local governments nationwide have slashed infrastructure spending since last summer, and the urban rail business has slowed to a crawl after several years of rapid growth.

…NDRC imposed extremely tight regulations on the approval process for subway construction before 2008, said Jin Yongxiang, general manager of Beijing’s Dayue Consulting Firm, which advises subway projects. Jin said “the situation took a 180 degree turn” in April 2009, when the State Council reduced the minimum capital requirement for urban rail projects to 25 percent. At that time, a NDRC source told Caixin, credit was loose and bank loans were easy to obtain.

“In some cases, the NDRC gave a nod to an urban rail project even if a local government had yet to meet the minimum capital requirement,” the source said. “With NDRC’s approval for subway projects, banks were willing to lend and would not hold city governments to the capital requirement.” In some cities, though, enthusiasm for the urban railway building went too far.

For example, rail lines were built where few people live on the outskirts of the Hunan Province city of Changsha, said Wang Chengli, an urban transit professor at the city’s Central South University. Today, exit gates for some of the city’s finished subway stations lead to farm fields. Wang said Changsha authorities installed far fewer kilometers of track in the city’s center than in its suburbs. Each project was approved by the central government, he added.

Zhang says China learned important lessons from the fast-track subway program. For example, he now thinks subways should never have been built in “many cities.” “The only cities that should have built subways are super-large ones such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Nanjing and Guangzhou,” Zhang said. “Provincial capitals such as Shenyang and Taiyuan can handle their transit needs with a single, light-rail line.” Subways can be uneconomical in smaller cities. Zhang said final costs for many projects were often much higher than a local government’s estimate.

Little by little the claim repeated by so many China bulls – that you can never spend too much on infrastructure – is being eroded. It is possible, it turns out, to waste a lot of money even on infrastructure, and if debt-fueled investment is being wasted in China, as I have been arguing for over half a decade, then without doubt debt must be rising at an unsustainable pace. Last week Bloomberg had this article, which suggests that even the official numbers, which show debt soaring, may be understating the reality:

Debt accumulated by companies financing local governments such as Tianjin…is rising, a survey of Chinese-language bond prospectuses issued this year indicates. It also suggests the total owed by all such entities likely dwarfs the count by China’s national auditor and figures disclosed by banks. Bloomberg News tallied the debt disclosed by all 231 local government financing companies that sold bonds, notes or commercial paper through Dec. 10 this year. The total amounted to 3.96 trillion yuan ($622 billion), mostly in bank loans, more than the current size of the European bailout fund.

There are 6,576 of such entities across China, according to a June count by the National Audit Office, which put their total debt at 4.97 trillion yuan. That means the 231 borrowers studied by Bloomberg have alone amassed more than three-quarters of the overall debt.

The fact so few of the companies have accumulated that much debt suggests a bigger problem, says Fraser Howie, the Singapore-based managing director of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets who has written two books on China’s financial system. “You should be more worried than you think,” he said of Bloomberg’s findings. “Certainly more worried than the banks will tell you.”

Why debt matters

There is more to the article. For example Huang Jifa, in the investment banking division at ICBC, reportedly says that local government loans aren’t a problem because the projects will generate returns, even if not immediately. “The money that Chinese local governments have borrowed is not like the money people borrowed in Europe or Greece,” Huang said in a Nov. 24 interview. “The Chinese government’s borrowed money is all invested. Many projects will have returns.”

Maybe, but I am pretty skeptical. The problem of course is that it doesn’t matter that many infrastructure projects in China have returns. I am sure many do (as did many projects in Greece, no doubt). What really matters is whether all the various projects in the aggregate are generating greater returns than the debt servicing cost, adjusting of course for all hidden and explicit subsidies. If not, then debt levels must be rising faster than the economy’s ability to service the debt.

Here, by the way, is another interesting related article, from last week’s South China Morning Post.

Auditors have uncovered 530 billion yuan (US$84.21 billion) worth of irregularities with local government debt, the National Audit Office said on Wednesday. An audit report, published on China’s central government website, reveals some of the problems investment analysts had believed to lay beneath the 10.7 trillion mountain of debt that local governments had amassed by the end of last year.

The report, conducted for the last year budget year, found problems including 46.5 billion yuan worth of “irregular credit guarantees”, 73.2 billion yuan worth of loans secured against irregular collateral, 35.1 billion yuan spent on stocks, houses and polluting plants and 132 billion yuan worth of expenditure not made by its approved deadline.

“A fifth problem is the fraudulent and underpayment of registered capital in financing vehicles, which amounted to 244.15 billion yuan,” the report said. The local governments involved have been ordered to correct wrongdoings, but the clean-up work remains less than half done in some areas, the report shows.

Xinhua later added an update to the story in which they focused on the amount of the irregularity that had been recouped:

Nearly half of the misused funds uncovered in the auditing of China’s local government debts in 2010 has been recouped, authorities said on Wednesday. Of the 530.9 billion yuan (about 84.3 billion U.S. dollars) of misused funds uncovered for the year 2010, around 259.2 billion yuan had been recouped by Oct. 2011, the National Audit Office (NAO) said in a report on the year’s auditing progress.

…Violations of the management of local debts involved illegal guarantees for local debts, misdirected funds to capital, property and energy-consuming markets, and the operation of fake investment companies, the report said, adding that the governments have been moving actively to correct the irregularities.

This particular story is less important than the frequency with which we hear similar stories. Every credit bubble in history seems to have been accompanied by a surge in accounting “irregularities”. Irving Fisher explained why in the 1930s, and Hyman Minsky also indirectly showed why this might happen. It is, I guess, a necessary accompaniment to out-of-control credit expansion.

I get many calls from investors and journalists on these debt-related topics, usually because they worry about the ability of specific borrowers and sectors to service the reported debt, and I always make the same response. The debt will be serviced. One way or the other it will be assumed by the central government through the banking system.

But this is not the important issue. The important issue is that it is clearly proving impossible to keep GDP growth levels high without explosive debt growth, and there are serious debt capacity limits to this kind of debt growth. I have no idea where the debt will next show up, or what the next debt panic will be (I suspect this year it will be SOE debt), but I have no doubt that there will be more of these debt panics. This is not an accident. It is intrinsic to the way the development model works.

The problem, then, is not that there will be defaults. The problem is that the only alternative to default is to service the debt, and this is what will cause the real damage to the economy. If the economic benefits generated by the investment are less than the correctly-valued debt-servicing costs, as they almost certainly are, the difference has to be made up in the form of a transfer of resources from some sector of the economy.

As we saw in the last debt crisis, a decade ago, debt-servicing costs are only manageable in China thanks to financial repression – i.e. extremely low lending rates funded by even lower deposit rates — which implies a huge transfer, equal to several percentage points of GDP annually, from household savers to corporate and government borrowers. Households, in other words, typically clean up banking messes.

Only consume!

The problem with this solution is in what it implies about future growth in demand. If investment is being wasted, it must be reduced or it will create a debt crisis eventually. If the external environment is tough, the demand impact of a sharp drop in investment cannot be made up for by a surge in the trade surplus – in fact the trade surplus may actually contribute negative demand. So where will the demand come from needed to pull the Chinese economy? The only possibility is a surge in domestic consumption.

Can consumption possibly surge? No, not if the household sector is going to be forced to clean up the banking mess again. This is the same problem that caused household consumption to drop after the last banking crisis from a very low 46% of GDP in 2000 to an astonishing 34% in 2010.

In that light, it was interesting to see this article in Wednesday’s South China Morning Post:

The Chinese government is planning new policies to boost domestic consumption, especially of vehicles and appliances, in a bid to offset the effects of sagging export demand, the China Daily reported on Wednesday, quoting a government official. With tax rebates on vehicles and domestic appliances either having expired or due to expire, the government is working on new measures, said Huang Hai, former assistant minister of commerce and a member of the economic and trade policy consulting committee linked to the Ministry of Commerce.

These may include subsidies for families living in affordable housing that buy electrical appliances and for consumers planning to change cars, the paper said. The newspaper also quoted a Ministry of Commerce spokesman as saying that the ministry was considering new programmes to expand consumption, with details to be announced next week.

Huang also said over 10 government agencies, including the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance, are expected to co-operate and propose concrete plans to boost consumption at a meeting slated for April.

“If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again,” WC Fields advised but, he added, “then quit. There’s no point in being a damn fool about it.” I don’t think this new attempt to boost consumption has any chance of succeeding, any more than similar polices did in 2009 and 2010.

Sure, consumption of automobiles and white goods surged back then, just as you would have expected given the subsidies, and they will surge again no doubt, but since those subsidies were ultimately paid for by the household sector, the policies did not translate into an overall surge in consumption because there was no net increase in household wealth. In fact during both of those years consumption continued to decline sharply as a share of GDP.

The Financial Times version of this story makes a classic mistake:

China has ample room to stimulate consumption. Household spending accounted for half of gross domestic product two decades ago but dwindled to just 33.8 per cent of GDP in 2010, a record low for a major economy in peacetime. China is probably now at a turning point in that consumption is beginning to become a bigger force in the economy, but this will be a “longer-term process”, said Zhu Haibin, an economist with JPMorgan.

For years China bulls have been arguing that because the Chinese save so extraordinarily much money, there is plenty of room to stimulate consumption – just get them to save a little less. The problem with this reasoning is that consumption is not low because Chinese households save a lot (they save in line with other Asian countries as a share of their income, and less than some). It is low because household income is such a low share of GDP.

It isn’t about household savings

The only way to boost household consumption is either to redistribute income from the low-consuming rich to the high consuming poor, or, better yet, to redistribute wealth from the state to households. Both of these have serious political implications that have to be resolved and are unlikely even to be addressed with consumption subsidies. After five years of this argument, during which time consumption has plummeted relative to total savings, you would think they would start to abandon the idea that all we need to do to get consumption to surge is to reduce household savings a little.

When we add in the possibility of a continued decline in house prices throughout China, we may start to feel some kind of wealth effect dragging consumption growth down even further as a share of GDP, although I am not sure I am too worried about that. The housing boom seems to have mainly benefitted speculators, and I don’t think that it translated into a significant increase in consumption when housing prices were on their way up. In that case it shouldn’t matter too much on the way down either, although it is better to wait and see what happens.

Nonetheless on Tuesday Xinhua has this to say about housing prices:

Sales of both new and existing homes in Beijing plummeted in 2011 as a result of the government’s efforts to cool down the runaway property market. New home sales in Beijing dropped 18.4 percent to 90,605 units in 2011 from a year ago, the Beijing News reported Monday, citing data from the city’s housing regulator.

In terms of square footage, sales slumped 22.4 percent to 9.56 million square meters last year, falling below 10 million square meters for the first time in six years, the paper said. Existing property transactions also plunged. Sales in 2011 shrank 38.2 percent to 121,512 units, hitting a three-year low. Monthly sales of existing homes have stayed below 10,000 units since April, the paper said.

Increased down-payment requirements and mortgage rates, as well as limits on home purchases, led to the declines, the paper said, citing Zhang Dawei, a chief analyst with Centaline Property. Consumers will likely expect further price drops in 2012, as the government has reiterated that it will maintain the policies, Zhang said. Property prices in Beijing are likely to fall 10 percent to 20 percent over the next six to 12 months, he said.

On a related note, on Tuesday, Li Yan, a young musician I know, called me up to ask me for some advice. His parents, who come from and still live in a small town in Hebei province, wanted to buy him an apartment in Beijing, where he lives and works, because they were sure that in a few years the same apartment would cost an awful lot more. He wanted to know from me whether it made sense to do so. He had heard prices are coming down rapidly and asked me whether he should tell his parents to wait. Yes, I told him, wait.

I mention this story because Li Yan is a 21-year-old kid who has just started to become famous among Chinese youth for his wild antics and wilder music, and I suspect he thinks about and discusses finance and real estate as often as I think about and discuss life on Venus. Yet even he has heard that real estate prices are dropping. Two years ago, of course, no one in China had any doubt that real estate prices can only go up.

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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I think this is another example like the issue of fluorescent bulbs earlier. 30% less tires from China because of the tariff and all it did was send jobs to other low-end manufacturing countries not the US and on top of that tires prices went higher up.

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Obama's Half-Truth On China Tire Tariffs


“We’ve brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration – and it’s made a difference. Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires.”– President Barack Obama, State of the Union Address, Jan. 24, 2012.

For an America unemployed, China is as good a scapegoat as Goldman Sachs. On Tuesday, President Barack Obama said that a two year old trade tariff on automobile tires Made in China led to over a thousand jobs in the U.S. tire business. It did create some jobs, but not much. In 2010, roughly 51,600 people were employed by tire manufacturers, rising to 51,700 in 2011, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the number has declined by the thousands since the tougher trade policy was enacted. In 2009, 55,000 people were employed in the industry on average throughout that year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industry has been shedding U.S. workers for more than a decade, dropping from a high of 86,800 back in 2000. Making tires overseas is just cheaper for the big brands, and they have been moving production in that direction for a long time.

The tariffs did ultimately lead to a 30% reduction in Made in China tire imports from 2009 to 2011, but that didn’t mean 30% more tires were produced in the U.S. It just meant that 30% more tires were imported from Canada; 110% more from South Korea; 44% more from Japan; 152% more from Indonesia; 154% more from Thailand; 117% more from Mexico and 285% more from low volume provider Taiwan, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

The tariff will be up for review this year and is one of the most publicized of the ongoing China-U.S. trade disputes.

Last week, Wall Street Journal reporter John Bussey spoke to a tire retailer and a spokesman from Goodyear about the tariffs. The consensus on both sides of the business is that China’s low cost tires now cost too much, and the consumers are paying the price for it. In some cases, tire prices have nearly doubled.


Image by Sean MacEntee via Flickr

The measure was meant to whack imports of passenger and light-truck tires and give a boost to manufacturers and job creation in the U.S. But a close look at the government numbers shows there has been no big boost at all.

“The tariffs didn’t have any material impact on our North American business,” Keith Price, a spokesman for Goodyear told the Journal. “The stuff coming in from China is primarily low end. We got out of that market years go.”

Obama’s tariff has had only a marginal effect. And whether or not the jobs that were created — a thousand at least according to the president — is due to the China policy, or just a revved up U.S. auto industry is unknown. The U.S. Census Bureau does not produce manufacturing output data for the lower-end tires that were effected by the tariff. State and local government incentives are doing a better job at increasing the manufacturing jobs in this sector. Bridgestone is investing $1.2 billion in South Carolina to produce high end construction vehicle tires. The company said it would create 850 jobs over the next 8 years. Those particular tires do not have Chinese competition affected by the tariff.

U.S. China Business Council President John Frisbie said Tuesday night in a statement after Obama’s speech that the multinational lobby disagreed with the president’s assessment on the success of the tariff.

“We disagree that the tariffs on imports of low-end Chinese tires have had any positive effect on American jobs or the American economy. All evidence suggests that the beneficiaries have been other low-end tire producers in Asia and Mexico,” he said.

“Few issues loom as large on America’s economic and foreign policy agendas as our relationship with China. This is the defining global strategic issue for the United States going forward. U.S. exports to China are strong and getting stronger. American companies have numerous options when China doesn’t play fair. Direct negotiation with China is the best first approach to dealing with commercial problems American companies have with China. But we also can use other sound legal tools—such as anti-dumping investigations and World Trade Organization cases—and have done so successfully,” Frisbie said.

The U.S. China trade deficit continues to grow month over month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Yet, China has been the America’s fastest growing export market since it joined the World Trade Organization and is the only major market since 2000 to have averaged the 15% growth per year needed to meet Obama’s goal of doubling U.S. exports by 2014.
 

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Brigadier

In China, Human Costs Are Built Into an iPad


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The explosion ripped through Building A5 on a Friday evening last May, an eruption of fire and noise that twisted metal pipes as if they were discarded straws. When workers in the cafeteria ran outside, they saw black smoke pouring from shattered windows. It came from the area where employees polished thousands of iPad cases a day.

Two people were killed immediately, and over a dozen others hurt. As the injured were rushed into ambulances, one in particular stood out. His features had been smeared by the blast, scrubbed by heat and violence until a mat of red and black had replaced his mouth and nose.

“Are you Lai Xiaodong’s father?” a caller asked when the phone rang at Mr. Lai’s childhood home. Six months earlier, the 22-year-old had moved to Chengdu, in southwest China, to become one of the millions of human cogs powering the largest, fastest and most sophisticated manufacturing system on earth. That system has made it possible for Apple and hundreds of other companies to build devices almost as quickly as they can be dreamed up.

“He’s in trouble,” the caller told Mr. Lai’s father. “Get to the hospital as soon as possible.”

In the last decade, Apple has become one of the mightiest, richest and most successful companies in the world, in part by mastering global manufacturing. Apple and its high-technology peers — as well as dozens of other American industries — have achieved a pace of innovation nearly unmatched in modern history.

However, the workers assembling iPhones, iPads and other devices often labor in harsh conditions, according to employees inside those plants, worker advocates and documents published by companies themselves. Problems are as varied as onerous work environments and serious — sometimes deadly — safety problems.

Employees work excessive overtime, in some cases seven days a week, and live in crowded dorms. Some say they stand so long that their legs swell until they can hardly walk. Under-age workers have helped build Apple’s products, and the company’s suppliers have improperly disposed of hazardous waste and falsified records, according to company reports and advocacy groups that, within China, are often considered reliable, independent monitors.

More troubling, the groups say, is some suppliers’ disregard for workers’ health. Two years ago, 137 workers at an Apple supplier in eastern China were injured after they were ordered to use a poisonous chemical to clean iPhone screens. Within seven months last year, two explosions at iPad factories, including in Chengdu, killed four people and injured 77. Before those blasts, Apple had been alerted to hazardous conditions inside the Chengdu plant, according to a Chinese group that published that warning.

“If Apple was warned, and didn’t act, that’s reprehensible,” said Nicholas Ashford, a former chairman of the National Advisory Committee on Occupational Safety and Health, a group that advises the United States Labor Department. “But what’s morally repugnant in one country is accepted business practices in another, and companies take advantage of that.”

Apple is not the only electronics company doing business within a troubling supply system. Bleak working conditions have been documented at factories manufacturing products for Dell, Hewlett-Packard, I.B.M., Lenovo, Motorola, Nokia, Sony, Toshiba and others.

Current and former Apple executives, moreover, say the company has made significant strides in improving factories in recent years. Apple has a supplier code of conduct that details standards on labor issues, safety protections and other topics. The company has mounted a vigorous auditing campaign, and when abuses are discovered, Apple says, corrections are demanded.

And Apple’s annual supplier responsibility reports, in many cases, are the first to report abuses. This month, for the first time, the company released a list identifying many of its suppliers.

But significant problems remain. More than half of the suppliers audited by Apple have violated at least one aspect of the code of conduct every year since 2007, according to Apple’s reports, and in some instances have violated the law. While many violations involve working conditions, rather than safety hazards, troubling patterns persist.

“Apple never cared about anything other than increasing product quality and decreasing production cost,” said Li Mingqi, who until April worked in management at Foxconn Technology, one of Apple’s most important manufacturing partners. Mr. Li, who is suing Foxconn over his dismissal, helped manage the Chengdu factory where the explosion occurred.

“Workers’ welfare has nothing to do with their interests,” he said.

Some former Apple executives say there is an unresolved tension within the company: executives want to improve conditions within factories, but that dedication falters when it conflicts with crucial supplier relationships or the fast delivery of new products. Tuesday, Apple reported one of the most lucrative quarters of any corporation in history, with $13.06 billion in profits on $46.3 billion in sales. Its sales would have been even higher, executives said, if overseas factories had been able to produce more.

Executives at other corporations report similar internal pressures. This system may not be pretty, they argue, but a radical overhaul would slow innovation. Customers want amazing new electronics delivered every year.

“We’ve known about labor abuses in some factories for four years, and they’re still going on,” said one former Apple executive who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of confidentiality agreements. “Why? Because the system works for us. Suppliers would change everything tomorrow if Apple told them they didn’t have another choice.”

“If half of iPhones were malfunctioning, do you think Apple would let it go on for four years?” the executive asked.

Apple, in its published reports, has said it requires every discovered labor violation to be remedied, and suppliers that refuse are terminated. Privately, however, some former executives concede that finding new suppliers is time-consuming and costly. Foxconn is one of the few manufacturers in the world with the scale to build sufficient numbers of iPhones and iPads. So Apple is “not going to leave Foxconn and they’re not going to leave China,” said Heather White, a research fellow at Harvard and a former member of the Monitoring International Labor Standards committee at the National Academy of Sciences. “There’s a lot of rationalization.”

Apple was provided with extensive summaries of this article, but the company declined to comment. The reporting is based on interviews with more than three dozen current or former employees and contractors, including a half-dozen current or former executives with firsthand knowledge of Apple’s supplier responsibility group, as well as others within the technology industry.

In 2010, Steven P. Jobs discussed the company’s relationships with suppliers at an industry conference.

“I actually think Apple does one of the best jobs of any companies in our industry, and maybe in any industry, of understanding the working conditions in our supply chain,” said Mr. Jobs, who was Apple’s chief executive at the time and who died last October.

“I mean, you go to this place, and, it’s a factory, but, my gosh, I mean, they’ve got restaurants and movie theaters and hospitals and swimming pools, and I mean, for a factory, it’s a pretty nice factory.”

Others, including workers inside such plants, acknowledge the cafeterias and medical facilities, but insist conditions are punishing.

“We’re trying really hard to make things better,” said one former Apple executive. “But most people would still be really disturbed if they saw where their iPhone comes from.”

The Road to Chengdu

In the fall of 2010, about six months before the explosion in the iPad factory, Lai Xiaodong carefully wrapped his clothes around his college diploma, so it wouldn’t crease in his suitcase. He told friends he would no longer be around for their weekly poker games, and said goodbye to his teachers. He was leaving for Chengdu, a city of 12 million that was rapidly becoming one of the world’s most important manufacturing hubs.

Though painfully shy, Mr. Lai had surprised everyone by persuading a beautiful nursing student to become his girlfriend. She wanted to marry, she said, and so his goal was to earn enough money to buy an apartment.

Factories in Chengdu manufacture products for hundreds of companies. But Mr. Lai was focused on Foxconn Technology, China’s largest exporter and one of the nation’s biggest employers, with 1.2 million workers. The company has plants throughout China, and assembles an estimated 40 percent of the world’s consumer electronics, including for customers like Amazon, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Nintendo, Nokia and Samsung.

Foxconn’s factory in Chengdu, Mr. Lai knew, was special. Inside, workers were building Apple’s latest, potentially greatest product: the iPad.

When Mr. Lai finally landed a job repairing machines at the plant, one of the first things he noticed were the almost blinding lights. Shifts ran 24 hours a day, and the factory was always bright. At any moment, there were thousands of workers standing on assembly lines or sitting in backless chairs, crouching next to large machinery, or jogging between loading bays. Some workers’ legs swelled so much they waddled. “It’s hard to stand all day,” said Zhao Sheng, a plant worker.

Banners on the walls warned the 120,000 employees: “Work hard on the job today or work hard to find a job tomorrow.” Apple’s supplier code of conduct dictates that, except in unusual circumstances, employees are not supposed to work more than 60 hours a week. But at Foxconn, some worked more, according to interviews, workers’ pay stubs and surveys by outside groups. Mr. Lai was soon spending 12 hours a day, six days a week inside the factory, according to his paychecks. Employees who arrived late were sometimes required to write confession letters and copy quotations. There were “continuous shifts,” when workers were told to work two stretches in a row, according to interviews.

Mr. Lai’s college degree enabled him to earn a salary of around $22 a day, including overtime — more than many others. When his days ended, he would retreat to a small bedroom just big enough for a mattress, wardrobe and a desk where he obsessively played an online game called Fight the Landlord, said his girlfriend, Luo Xiaohong.

Those accommodations were better than many of the company’s dorms, where 70,000 Foxconn workers lived, at times stuffed 20 people to a three-room apartment, employees said. Last year, a dispute over paychecks set off a riot in one of the dormitories, and workers started throwing bottles, trash cans and flaming paper from their windows, according to witnesses. Two hundred police officers wrestled with workers, arresting eight. Afterward, trash cans were removed, and piles of rubbish — and rodents — became a problem. Mr. Lai felt lucky to have a place of his own.

Foxconn, in a statement, disputed workers’ accounts of continuous shifts, extended overtime, crowded living accommodations and the causes of the riot. The company said that its operations adhered to customers’ codes of conduct, industry standards and national laws. “Conditions at Foxconn are anything but harsh,” the company wrote. Foxconn also said that it had never been cited by a customer or government for under-age or overworked employees or toxic exposures.

“All assembly line employees are given regular breaks, including one-hour lunch breaks,” the company wrote, and only 5 percent of assembly line workers are required to stand to carry out their tasks. Work stations have been designed to ergonomic standards, and employees have opportunities for job rotation and promotion, the statement said.

“Foxconn has a very good safety record,” the company wrote. “Foxconn has come a long way in our efforts to lead our industry in China in areas such as workplace conditions and the care and treatment of our employees.”

Apple’s Code of Conduct

In 2005, some of Apple’s top executives gathered inside their Cupertino, Calif., headquarters for a special meeting. Other companies had created codes of conduct to police their suppliers. It was time, Apple decided, to follow suit. The code Apple published that year demands “that working conditions in Apple’s supply chain are safe, that workers are treated with respect and dignity, and that manufacturing processes are environmentally responsible.”

But the next year, a British newspaper, The Mail on Sunday, secretly visited a Foxconn factory in Shenzhen, China, where iPods were manufactured, and reported on workers’ long hours, push-ups meted out as punishment and crowded dorms. Executives in Cupertino were shocked. “Apple is filled with really good people who had no idea this was going on,” a former employee said. “We wanted it changed, immediately.”

Apple audited that factory, the company’s first such inspection, and ordered improvements. Executives also undertook a series of initiatives that included an annual audit report, first published in 2007. By last year, Apple had inspected 396 facilities — including the company’s direct suppliers, as well as many of those suppliers’ suppliers — one of the largest such programs within the electronics industry.

Those audits have found consistent violations of Apple’s code of conduct, according to summaries published by the company. In 2007, for instance, Apple conducted over three dozen audits, two-thirds of which indicated that employees regularly worked more than 60 hours a week. In addition, there were six “core violations,” the most serious kind, including hiring 15-year-olds as well as falsifying records.

Over the next three years, Apple conducted 312 audits, and every year, about half or more showed evidence of large numbers of employees laboring more than six days a week as well as working extended overtime. Some workers received less than minimum wage or had pay withheld as punishment. Apple found 70 core violations over that period, including cases of involuntary labor, under-age workers, record falsifications, improper disposal of hazardous waste and over a hundred workers injured by toxic chemical exposures.

Last year, the company conducted 229 audits. There were slight improvements in some categories and the detected rate of core violations declined. However, within 93 facilities, at least half of workers exceeded the 60-hours-a-week work limit. At a similar number, employees worked more than six days a week. There were incidents of discrimination, improper safety precautions, failure to pay required overtime rates and other violations. That year, four employees were killed and 77 injured in workplace explosions.

“If you see the same pattern of problems, year after year, that means the company’s ignoring the issue rather than solving it,” said one former Apple executive with firsthand knowledge of the supplier responsibility group. “Noncompliance is tolerated, as long as the suppliers promise to try harder next time. If we meant business, core violations would disappear.”

Apple says that when an audit reveals a violation, the company requires suppliers to address the problem within 90 days and make changes to prevent a recurrence. “If a supplier is unwilling to change, we terminate our relationship,” the company says on its Web site.

The seriousness of that threat, however, is unclear. Apple has found violations in hundreds of audits, but fewer than 15 suppliers have been terminated for transgressions since 2007, according to former Apple executives.

“Once the deal is set and Foxconn becomes an authorized Apple supplier, Apple will no longer give any attention to worker conditions or anything that is irrelevant to its products,” said Mr. Li, the former Foxconn manager. Mr. Li spent seven years with Foxconn in Shenzhen and Chengdu and was forced out in April after he objected to a relocation to Chengdu, he said. Foxconn disputed his comments, and said “both Foxconn and Apple take the welfare of our employees very seriously.”

Apple’s efforts have spurred some changes. Facilities that were reaudited “showed continued performance improvements and better working conditions,” the company wrote in its 2011 supplier responsibility progress report. In addition, the number of audited facilities has grown every year, and some executives say those expanding efforts obscure year-to-year improvements.

Apple also has trained over a million workers about their rights and methods for injury and disease prevention. A few years ago, after auditors insisted on interviewing low-level factory employees, they discovered that some had been forced to pay onerous “recruitment fees” — which Apple classifies as involuntary labor. As of last year, the company had forced suppliers to reimburse more than $6.7 million in such charges.

“Apple is a leader in preventing under-age labor,” said Dionne Harrison of Impactt, a firm paid by Apple to help prevent and respond to child labor among its suppliers. “They’re doing as much as they possibly can.”

Other consultants disagree.

“We’ve spent years telling Apple there are serious problems and recommending changes,” said a consultant at BSR — also known as Business for Social Responsibility — which has been twice retained by Apple to provide advice on labor issues. “They don’t want to pre-empt problems, they just want to avoid embarrassments.”

‘We Could Have Saved Lives’

In 2006, BSR, along with a division of the World Bank and other groups, initiated a project to improve working conditions in factories building cellphones and other devices in China and elsewhere. The groups and companies pledged to test various ideas. Foxconn agreed to participate.

For four months, BSR and another group negotiated with Foxconn regarding a pilot program to create worker “hotlines,” so that employees could report abusive conditions, seek mental counseling and discuss workplace problems. Apple was not a participant in the project, but was briefed on it, according to the BSR consultant, who had detailed knowledge.

As negotiations proceeded, Foxconn’s requirements for participation kept changing. First Foxconn asked to shift from installing new hotlines to evaluating existing hotlines. Then Foxconn insisted that mental health counseling be excluded. Foxconn asked participants to sign agreements saying they would not disclose what they observed, and then rewrote those agreements multiple times. Finally, an agreement was struck, and the project was scheduled to begin in January 2008. A day before the start, Foxconn demanded more changes, until it was clear the project would not proceed, according to the consultant and a 2008 summary by BSR that did not name Foxconn.

The next year, a Foxconn employee fell or jumped from an apartment building after losing an iPhone prototype. Over the next two years, at least 18 other Foxconn workers attempted suicide or fell from buildings in manners that suggested suicide attempts. In 2010, two years after the pilot program fell apart and after multiple suicide attempts, Foxconn created a dedicated mental health hotline and began offering free psychological counseling.

“We could have saved lives, and we asked Apple to pressure Foxconn, but they wouldn’t do it,” said the BSR consultant, who asked not to be identified because of confidentiality agreements. “Companies like H.P. and Intel and Nike push their suppliers. But Apple wants to keep an arm’s length, and Foxconn is their most important manufacturer, so they refuse to push.”

BSR, in a written statement, said the views of that consultant were not those of the company.

“My BSR colleagues and I view Apple as a company that is making a highly serious effort to ensure that labor conditions in its supply chain meet the expectations of applicable laws, the company’s standards and the expectations of consumers,” wrote Aron Cramer, BSR’s president. Mr. Cramer added that asking Apple to pressure Foxconn would have been inconsistent with the purpose of the pilot program, and there were multiple reasons the pilot program did not proceed.

Foxconn, in a statement, said it acted quickly and comprehensively to address suicides, and “the record has shown that those measures have been successful.”

A Demanding Client

Every month, officials at companies from around the world trek to Cupertino or invite Apple executives to visit their foreign factories, all in pursuit of a goal: becoming a supplier.

When news arrives that Apple is interested in a particular product or service, small celebrations often erupt. Whiskey is drunk. Karaoke is sung.

Then, Apple’s requests start.

Apple typically asks suppliers to specify how much every part costs, how many workers are needed and the size of their salaries. Executives want to know every financial detail. Afterward, Apple calculates how much it will pay for a part. Most suppliers are allowed only the slimmest of profits.

So suppliers often try to cut corners, replace expensive chemicals with less costly alternatives, or push their employees to work faster and longer, according to people at those companies.

“The only way you make money working for Apple is figuring out how to do things more efficiently or cheaper,” said an executive at one company that helped bring the iPad to market. “And then they’ll come back the next year, and force a 10 percent price cut.”

In January 2010, workers at a Chinese factory owned by Wintek, an Apple manufacturing partner, went on strike over a variety of issues, including widespread rumors that workers were being exposed to toxins. Investigations by news organizations revealed that over a hundred employees had been injured by n-hexane, a toxic chemical that can cause nerve damage and paralysis.

Employees said they had been ordered to use n-hexane to clean iPhone screens because it evaporated almost three times as fast as rubbing alcohol. Faster evaporation meant workers could clean more screens each minute.

Apple commented on the Wintek injuries a year later. In its supplier responsibility report, Apple said it had “required Wintek to stop using n-hexane” and that “Apple has verified that all affected workers have been treated successfully, and we continue to monitor their medical reports until full recuperation.” Apple also said it required Wintek to fix the ventilation system.

That same month, a New York Times reporter interviewed a dozen injured Wintek workers who said they had never been contacted by Apple or its intermediaries, and that Wintek had pressured them to resign and take cash settlements that would absolve the company of liability. After those interviews, Wintek pledged to provide more compensation to the injured workers and Apple sent a representative to speak with some of them.

Six months later, trade publications reported that Apple significantly cut prices paid to Wintek.

“You can set all the rules you want, but they’re meaningless if you don’t give suppliers enough profit to treat workers well,” said one former Apple executive with firsthand knowledge of the supplier responsibility group. “If you squeeze margins, you’re forcing them to cut safety.”
Wintek is still one of Apple’s most important suppliers. Wintek, in a statement, declined to comment except to say that after the episode, the company took “ample measures” to address the situation and “is committed to ensuring employee welfare and creating a safe and healthy work environment.”

Many major technology companies have worked with factories where conditions are troubling. However, independent monitors and suppliers say some act differently. Executives at multiple suppliers, in interviews, said that Hewlett-Packard and others allowed them slightly more profits and other allowances if they were used to improve worker conditions.

“Our suppliers are very open with us,” said Zoe McMahon, an executive in Hewlett-Packard’s supply chain social and environmental responsibility program. “They let us know when they are struggling to meet our expectations, and that influences our decisions.”

The Explosion

On the afternoon of the blast at the iPad plant, Lai Xiaodong telephoned his girlfriend, as he did every day. They had hoped to see each other that evening, but Mr. Lai’s manager said he had to work overtime, he told her.

He had been promoted quickly at Foxconn, and after just a few months was in charge of a team that maintained the machines that polished iPad cases. The sanding area was loud and hazy with aluminum dust. Workers wore masks and earplugs, but no matter how many times they showered, they were recognizable by the slight aluminum sparkle in their hair and at the corners of their eyes.

Just two weeks before the explosion, an advocacy group in Hong Kong published a report warning of unsafe conditions at the Chengdu plant, including problems with aluminum dust. The group, Students and Scholars Against Corporate Misbehavior, or Sacom, had videotaped workers covered with tiny aluminum particles. “Occupational health and safety issues in Chengdu are alarming,” the report read. “Workers also highlight the problem of poor ventilation and inadequate personal protective equipment.”

A copy of that report was sent to Apple. “There was no response,” said Debby Chan Sze Wan of the group. “A few months later I went to Cupertino, and went into the Apple lobby, but no one would meet with me. I’ve never heard from anyone from Apple at all.”

The morning of the explosion, Mr. Lai rode his bicycle to work. The iPad had gone on sale just weeks earlier, and workers were told thousands of cases needed to be polished each day. The factory was frantic, employees said. Rows of machines buffed cases as masked employees pushed buttons. Large air ducts hovered over each station, but they could not keep up with the three lines of machines polishing nonstop. Aluminum dust was everywhere.

Dust is a known safety hazard. In 2003, an aluminum dust explosion in Indiana destroyed a wheel factory and killed a worker. In 2008, agricultural dust inside a sugar factory in Georgia caused an explosion that killed 14.

Two hours into Mr. Lai’s second shift, the building started to shake, as if an earthquake was under way. There was a series of blasts, plant workers said.

Then the screams began.

When Mr. Lai’s colleagues ran outside, dark smoke was mixing with a light rain, according to cellphone videos. The toll would eventually count four dead, 18 injured.

At the hospital, Mr. Lai’s girlfriend saw that his skin was almost completely burned away. “I recognized him from his legs, otherwise I wouldn’t know who that person was,” she said.

Eventually, his family arrived. Over 90 percent of his body had been seared. “My mom ran away from the room at the first sight of him. I cried. Nobody could stand it,” his brother said. When his mother eventually returned, she tried to avoid touching her son, for fear that it would cause pain.

“If I had known,” she said, “I would have grabbed his arm, I would have touched him.”

“He was very tough,” she said. “He held on for two days.”

After Mr. Lai died, Foxconn workers drove to Mr. Lai’s hometown and delivered a box of ashes. The company later wired a check for about $150,000.

Foxconn, in a statement, said that at the time of the explosion the Chengdu plant was in compliance with all relevant laws and regulations, and “after ensuring that the families of the deceased employees were given the support they required, we ensured that all of the injured employees were given the highest quality medical care.” After the explosion, the company added, Foxconn immediately halted work in all polishing workshops, and later improved ventilation and dust disposal, and adopted technologies to enhance worker safety.

In its most recent supplier responsibility report, Apple wrote that after the explosion, the company contacted “the foremost experts in process safety” and assembled a team to investigate and make recommendations to prevent future accidents.

In December, however, seven months after the blast that killed Mr. Lai, another iPad factory exploded, this one in Shanghai. Once again, aluminum dust was the cause, according to interviews and Apple’s most recent supplier responsibility report. That blast injured 59 workers, with 23 hospitalized.

“It is gross negligence, after an explosion occurs, not to realize that every factory should be inspected,” said Nicholas Ashford, the occupational safety expert, who is now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “If it were terribly difficult to deal with aluminum dust, I would understand. But do you know how easy dust is to control? It’s called ventilation. We solved this problem over a century ago.”

In its most recent supplier responsibility report, Apple wrote that while the explosions both involved combustible aluminum dust, the causes were different. The company declined, however, to provide details. The report added that Apple had now audited all suppliers polishing aluminum products and had put stronger precautions in place. All suppliers have initiated required countermeasures, except one, which remains shut down, the report said.

For Mr. Lai’s family, questions remain. “We’re really not sure why he died,” said Mr. Lai’s mother, standing beside a shrine she built near their home. “We don’t understand what happened.”

Hitting the Apple Lottery

Every year, as rumors about Apple’s forthcoming products start to emerge, trade publications and Web sites begin speculating about which suppliers are likely to win the Apple lottery. Getting a contract from Apple can lift a company’s value by millions because of the implied endorsement of manufacturing quality. But few companies openly brag about the work: Apple generally requires suppliers to sign contracts promising they will not divulge anything, including the partnership.

That lack of transparency gives Apple an edge at keeping its plans secret. But it also has been a barrier to improving working conditions, according to advocates and former Apple executives.

This month, after numerous requests by advocacy and news organizations, including The New York Times, Apple released the names of 156 of its suppliers. In the report accompanying that list, Apple said they “account for more than 97 percent of what we pay to suppliers to manufacture our products.”

However, the company has not revealed the names of hundreds of other companies that do not directly contract with Apple, but supply the suppliers. The company’s supplier list does not disclose where factories are, and many are hard to find. And independent monitoring organizations say when they have tried to inspect Apple’s suppliers, they have been barred from entry — on Apple’s orders, they have been told.

“We’ve had this conversation hundreds of times,” said a former executive in Apple’s supplier responsibility group. “There is a genuine, companywide commitment to the code of conduct. But taking it to the next level and creating real change conflicts with secrecy and business goals, and so there’s only so far we can go.” Former Apple employees say they were generally prohibited from engaging with most outside groups.

“There’s a real culture of secrecy here that influences everything,” the former executive said.

Some other technology companies operate differently.

“We talk to a lot of outsiders,” said Gary Niekerk, director of corporate citizenship at Intel. “The world’s complex, and unless we’re dialoguing with outside groups, we miss a lot.”

Given Apple’s prominence and leadership in global manufacturing, if the company were to radically change its ways, it could overhaul how business is done. “Every company wants to be Apple,” said Sasha Lezhnev at the Enough Project, a group focused on corporate accountability. “If they committed to building a conflict-free iPhone, it would transform technology.”

But ultimately, say former Apple executives, there are few real outside pressures for change. Apple is one of the most admired brands. In a national survey conducted by The New York Times in November, 56 percent of respondents said they couldn’t think of anything negative about Apple. Fourteen percent said the worst thing about the company was that its products were too expensive. Just 2 percent mentioned overseas labor practices.

People like Ms. White of Harvard say that until consumers demand better conditions in overseas factories — as they did for companies like Nike and Gap, which today have overhauled conditions among suppliers — or regulators act, there is little impetus for radical change. Some Apple insiders agree.

“You can either manufacture in comfortable, worker-friendly factories, or you can reinvent the product every year, and make it better and faster and cheaper, which requires factories that seem harsh by American standards,” said a current Apple executive.

“And right now, customers care more about a new iPhone than working conditions in China.”

---------- Post added at 12:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:55 AM ----------

China's Hidden Wealth Feeds an Income Gap

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The Chinese economy is a little like the Milky Way: we keep discovering it’s larger than we thought, the difference may run in the trillions, and much is hidden from view.


As year-end reports on 2011 emerge from companies and organizations around the world, an astonishing picture is building of extravagant, high-end Chinese spending that offers a glaring contrast to the hardscrabble, high-saving image of most Chinese.

Wealthy Chinese are snapping up gold, Rolls-Royces and yachts, Louis Vuitton, Chanel and Gucci faster than ever before, with increases registering not in baby steps, as a decade ago, but in giant leaps — 20, 50, even 80 percent, year on year. The Chinese have become the world’s biggest duty-free shoppers.

Where is all the money coming from?

Tantalizing research by Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of the National Economic Research Institute at the independent China Reform Foundation, based in Beijing, may offer a kind of Kepler telescope for viewing the economy at something like its true size.

In an interview last week at a Beijing restaurant, where incense swirled around a bust of Lu Xun, the critical, celebrated 20th-century writer, Mr. Wang said the hidden, or “gray,” economy, already very large, had grown significantly since the government began its giant stimulus package in late 2008 in response to the global economic crisis.

“It was already about 9.3 trillion renminbi” annually, or $1.47 trillion, said Mr. Wang, whose mild manner belies the explosive nature of his work.

The stimulus, a mix of central and local government investment whose real size is unclear but is believed to far outstrip the official total of 4 trillion renminbi, hit channels already flush with cash, said Mr. Wang.

The clue? Last year’s runaway luxury spending.

“Today, looking at the luxury goods purchases, looking at the signs, it’s still a very serious issue,” said Mr. Wang, who gives the impression of being a careful man who doesn’t rush to speculate. “I think the pace of increase of the gray economy is very fast.”

Officially, the Chinese economy grew 9.2 percent last year, reaching 47.16 trillion renminbi. Mr. Wang’s two reports on the hidden economy, published in 2007 and 2010, suggest that gray economic activity is growing faster than gross domestic product.

Of course, the Chinese economy has been growing rapidly for about three decades, creating much legitimate wealth. Incomes are rising, about 8.4 percent in real terms in the cities last year, Mr. Wang said.

Yet “average incomes haven’t risen as fast as luxury spending,” suggesting that the luxury spending is being fed by other, hidden sources, he said.

The government knows that many people hide their income. The day before our interview, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics, Ma Jiantang, made what Mr. Wang considered “a very interesting” statement to the news media.

Asked by reporters why the bureau didn’t publish a figure for China’s overall Gini coefficient — a measurement of income inequality — Mr. Ma said it was because they knew their figures for high earners were wrong and therefore any results were inaccurate.

“The National Bureau of Statistics’ firsthand data are inaccurate,” said Mr. Wang, marveling that they admitted it.

The admission is particularly satisfying for Mr. Wang, who in 2010 became embroiled in a public dispute with two officials from the bureau who called Mr. Wang’s gray economy figure “too high.”

“They said they were representing themselves, but they weren’t,” he said, smiling slightly.

Using innovative research techniques that bypassed official data, Mr. Wang estimated that not only were trillions of renminbi failing to appear in official assessments, but about two-thirds of it belonged to the top 10 percent of the population.

His conclusion: the rich were hiding their wealth, and society was far more unequal than the government was admitting — a politically sensitive subject.

How much has the hidden economy expanded since the stimulus?

“I don’t have the figures, so I just don’t know,” said Mr. Wang, pointing out that many people, not just the superrich, have the opportunity to hide income. “But the last few years have not seen systematic development. It has not been transparent.”

Disbursement of government investment has created enormous opportunities for “rent-seeking behavior” or special favors, said Mr. Wang, adding: “In reality, that’s corruption.”

Under pressure to expand local economies, officials have stepped up seizures and sales of farmers’ land, a frequent cause of unrest. “Land sales have been a really big factor. Local officials have been continually selling land in a completely unsystematic way,” leading both to more income and to very uneven distribution, with farmers rarely getting anything near the value of their land, he said.

In an article in Caixin Online published on the same day as our interview, titled “How to Accurately Count Rich People’s Income,” Mr. Wang noted that squirreling away money and lying about income were hardly exclusively Chinese phenomena. “These conditions also exist in developed countries, but there are major differences when it comes to extent,” he told Caixin.

Some economists estimate that the Chinese income gap, as measured according to the Gini coefficient, is currently around 0.48, above the alert threshold of 0.4, with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality.

Yet no one really knows where it lies. To correct that, China needs to begin systematic political, financial and administrative reform aimed at establishing the truth, Mr. Wang told Caixin. It must increase transparency and strengthen the public’s ability to monitor power-holders, he said. “These are the basic ways to solve the problem,” he told Caixin.

After all, he told me: “When economic reform began back in 1978, it was never meant to happen alone. There was supposed to be political reform, too.”
 
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escobar

Brigadier
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So, who's afraid of China's economic power?

Mention the topic in polite conversation, and chances are that you'll hear complaints about dumping cheap products, stealing jobs and grabbing resources.

If you talk to politicians and economists, you may hear complaints that China is keeping its currency undervalued. There are worries about the size of its foreign currency reserves - currently approaching a massive $4tn (£2.55tn).

So much economic power creates fear and hostility, especially in countries like the United States during an election year, warns Richard Levin, president of Yale University.

Those worries are only bound to increase.

Rich country, poor country?

China's economy, with its 1.3 billion people, keeps on growing rapidly, at a rate of around 10% a year. Already it is the world's second-largest economy. Some here at the World Economic Forum in Davos wonder whether China can still be called a developing economy at all.

China's economic growth, says Pascal Lamy, boss of the World Trade Organisation, "will bump into public perception problems".

"There is this perception that there is a Chinese official behind every Chinese business person. That China is grabbing resources. That there is a new colonial 'something'. That they are after technology, stealing, transferring it, all these negative things that translate into [a view] that this is a country that doesn't play by the rules."

Mr Lamy does not agree with these perceptions.

But China, he says, has to develop "a better narrative", tell the world what it really does or suffer a backlash.

"The world outside China still wonders whether China is a poor country with lots of rich people, or a rich country with lots of poor people," says Mr Lamy.

Beginner's mistakes

China is changing so fast, it's probably difficult to make that call.

John Zhao, chief executive of China's largest private equity firm, Hony Capital, reminded the Davos elite that not that long ago, the Beijing government would tell any Chinese travelling abroad "we make you a nice set of suits, so that you don't look poor".

These days, he said, the West sees mainly very wealthy Chinese travelling abroad. "That also gives the wrong impression. They are wealthy, but they are a minority. Most Chinese are still poor."

But what about China's dubious reputation of doing business abroad? Mr Zhao blames it on beginner's mistakes.

The Chinese government did not know what to do with all its foreign reserves, he says, so they did what everybody else did: buy US Treasury bonds.

And yes, while "there are a few bad Chinese companies" that "intentionally commit fraud," most try to learn and follow the rules.

"We have no hundred-year history of corporate governance," says Mr Zhao.

Robert Greifeld, chief executive of the Nasdaq stock market, notes that the West also has a "rich history of corporate misdeeds - from Parmalat to Enron," and reports that Chinese firms have an "insatiable appetite to learn Western corporate reporting standards".

The big imbalance

However, the trouble with China is much more than just a matter of perception or company reports, argues Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and now with Yale University.

It's about real economic imbalances, where Chinese consumers and companies save too much, while the West saves too little.

Mr Levin believes that it is about time for the Chinese government to use some of its foreign reserves to invest in its own people, for example by building up a social safety net or boosting a pension systems under pressure from a rapidly ageing population.

More importantly, Mr Roach said, nobody should ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room: China's reluctance to free the exchange rate of its currency, the renminbi.

It is a controversial topic. So controversial that Mr Lamy noted to general laughter that his briefing notes told him "to shut up" should the topic come up at Davos.

Still, he listed what everyone generally agrees on: The renminbi is undervalued, should be "internationalised" (which means allowed to float freely).

"But it gets difficult when you ask how much," he said. "5% or 30%?"

And, Mr Lamy asked, how would the Chinese public take it when their government's stockpile of dollar reserves suddenly loses a lot of its value?

Return to normal?

Some old China hands disagree with the whole premise that China is behaving unusually at all.

"China is not grabbing resources, it is investing in resources that otherwise would not be developed, whether its in Brazil or Australia or Africa," argues one Davos attendee.

"Is China investing a lot? No, it's a little. Given that it's the world's second-largest economy, it is not investing nearly enough."

Another business leader reminded Davos participants that today's "prejudices" against China were just the same as those "50 years ago, when the Americans were flooding Europe with their products".

Just as we all became a bit "Americanised, maybe we all are going to be a bit more Chinese, but that doesn't bother me either," he said.

The dating game

And what if Chinese companies snap up Western firms?

"More and more Chinese companies are looking at firms like Coca-Cola and General Electric and see their success, so they are learning from them... and are interested in becoming multinationals."

It doesn't always work, though.

Mr Zhao tells the story of a German company that decided to spurn the better takeover deal offered by a Chinese firm and sold the company to a French owner instead.
They made the right decision," says Mr Zhao. "If they felt they could not operate within the Chinese company, the deal would have been a disaster. So that's why we are telling Chinese companies: work on your corporate culture."

Another Chinese executive compared the corporate relationship between China and the West to courtship: "Before marriage, you should date. And so I hope Chinese companies will open offices around the world, so that they learn the culture."

Win-win

"Get ready for more Chinese investment, it will happen," Pascal Lamy told the Western bosses and politicians in the audience. And turning to the many Chinese in the audience he warned that "for this to be a win-win, China has to address perceptions on both sides, in the West and within China".

Otherwise, China's reputation would end up like that of global trade, where the results "are great, but in politics it's [considered to be] terrible".

The outside world should understand that China is changing, was the impassioned plea of Michael Wong, a young entrepreneur whose company, TouchPal, makes smartphone applications that can be found on 20% of the world's Google Android phones.

Companies like his were pushing for change, for example working hard to ensure the protection of intellectual property.

"The stereotype of China may be true for the past, it may even be true for now, but it will change, much faster than you think, in three to five years," said Mr Wong.

"We are the future of China."

---------- Post added at 05:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:39 PM ----------

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Optimists predicting smooth growth of the Chinese economy in 2012 seem to base themselves partly on an assumption that domestic spending is an adequate, sustainable substitute for exports in bolstering GDP. However, I'm not so sure.

With an economic crisis biting deep into foreign demand for Chinese goods that enjoyed spectacular sales in recent years, hopes have been placed on the local consumer to keep the ship not only afloat, but sailing full steam ahead.

For example, domestic sales of consumer products, such as electrical appliances (about a third of whose output had been shipped abroad in recent years), benefitted greatly from a central government policy to keep the market buzzing by subsidizing purchases to move goods off the shelf.

However, that policy seems to have run its course, creating a need for a new one.

Government subsidies are all very well, but I cannot see how they can promote long-term healthy and stable economic growth. It's really a matter of transferring money from one pocket to the other to create an illusion that all is well.

Most subsidies were aimed at persuading previous non-users, especially in rural areas, to purchase a whole range of home appliances - so-called "white goods".

And, in recent years, it seems to have been a good policy, with manufacturers consistently enjoying annual sales growth of 20 to 30 percent. However, even the massive, mouth-watering market of China has its limitations. Once you have bought a washing machine or refrigerator you are removed from the equation for a number of years until it wears out and needs to be replaced.

Anyway, the scheme is now abandoned in many areas. A program that offered 10 percent discounts for those willing to buy a new appliance in place of an old one was revoked before the end of 2011, and subsidies offered to rural households to buy "luxury" items like TV sets expired in some areas (for example, Henan, Shandong and Sichuan). Added to this are those too poor to afford such items even with discounts.

Walk into an appliance store in most places right now and the evidence is there before you: not many customers.

According to trade sources, at the height of the sweltering summer heat in 2011, there were well over 16 million unsold, unwanted air conditioners piled up in warehouses.

As such inventories have grown - microwave ovens, cookers and refrigerator sales have also slumped - appliance stores and appliance manufacturers have resorted to the usual coping measures: laying off or dismissing workers and cutting the wages of the workers who remain.

That has inevitably led to protests, creating just the sort of social unrest the government fears most in undermining the national stability needed to keep the economic wheels turning.

And there is nothing more likely to stifle consumer enthusiasm for spending on "big ticket items" than loss of job security. That's when money tends to end up stored under the bed mattress, especially when the global economic picture still looks somewhat gloomy.

The statistics show clearly how things are slowing down: in the first half of 2011, revenue from sales of household appliances rose 12.8 percent, which was almost half the figure at the height of the boom in 2010.

Many people actually borrowed money to take advantage of the discounts and now they must pay back the loans - further dampening the market for fresh sales. The industry itself concedes growth prospects are not good for the next two or three years.

Actually, this may not be a bad thing. The government subsidies ensured domestic manufacturers could offload inferior products with no incentive to improve. If these products are now piling up in the warehouses, then maybe the manufacturers will be encouraged to turn their attention to improving the technology and the quality (also needed in foreign markets if and when the global economy improves).

No doubt, many factories will plead hardship and ask the government for subsidies for new R&D programs - another potential drain on the already overloaded State finances.

Surely, though, this is a chance for industrial restructuring through mergers and closures to create a sector that better meets future needs. This has already been carried out fairly ruthlessly by the government in some sectors (tobacco, for example) - "short-term pain in expectation of long-term gain".

And, local governments could do more if they wanted. They pour billions down the drain every year in an unhealthy construction boom that is creating "ghosts towns" with high-rise apartments and office buildings that will never be filled and luxury hotels that will never have enough guests to make money.

Let's stop this nonsense and put money into things that might have a real chance to promote sound economic growth and create real long-term, unsubsidized, consumers.
 

escobar

Brigadier
According to china future PM, provincial figures are not true.


China Provincial GDP figures

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Preliminary statistics show that China’s GDP grew at a robust 9.2 percent in 2011 to RMB47.16 trillion (US$7.26 trillion), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said last week at a press conference.

While this rate represents a drop of 1.2 percent compared to the 10.4 percent GDP growth experienced in 2010, last year’s growth rate was still 1.2 percent above the 8 percent year-on-year growth target set at the beginning of 2011.

NBS Chief Ma Jiantang told reporters that China’s economy grew 9.7 percent and 9.5 percent year-on-year for the first and the second quarters of 2011, respectively. However, the economy slowed down to 9.1 percent in the third quarter, which was followed by growth of 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

Though the data show a decline, Ma said that China’s economy is still growing stronger than expected and hailed China’s economic performance in 2011 as a “good start” for the country’s 12th Five-Year Plan, from 2011 to 2015.

“Although GDP growth fell on a quarterly basis, it was within a reasonable range and the country’s economic fundamentals were not changed. We have confidence for 2012′s growth,” said Ma.

“We should no longer be obsessed with the speed of growth,” said Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Lu predicted the expansion of China’s GDP growth will slow down to 8.5 percent in 2012. A report released by the Center for Forecasting Science under the Chinese Academy of Sciences also forecasts economic growth of 8.5 percent for this year.

Provincial GDP Statistics
When breaking down China’s 2011 statistics, an impressive 22 provinces reported GDP figures in excess of RMB1 trillion (US$158 billion), according to the yearly economic reports of local governments.

chinaprovincesmap.jpg
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at 2012-01-27[/IMG]

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By luritie at 2012-01-27[/IMG]

South China’s Guangdong Province, the longtime leader of the Pearl River Delta’s bustling economy, is the country’s first region to claim a GDP over RMB5 trillion, increasing 10 percent year-on-year in 2011. Fixed asset investment into Guangdong grew by 17.6 percent last year to RMB1.69 trillion (US$267 billion) and the province’s trade volume amounted to US$913.48 billion, expanding 37 percent from 2010. Provincial Governor Zhu Xiaodan said that Guangdong will slow GDP growth to 8.5 percent in 2012, and will be more focused on the quality of economic development.

In East China, Jiangsu Province’s GDP grew 9.2 percent to RMB4.8 trillion (US$759 billion) in 2011, according to the provincial government’s report. Jiangsu’s GDP per capita reached US$9,500, and the region’s used FDI amounted to US$32 billion.

Deputy Governor of Shandong Province Wang Junmin told reporters that recent data show Shandong’s GDP came in at RMB4.5 trillion (US$711 billion) in 2011. Meanwhile, Zhejiang Province, a major manufacturing hub in the Yangtze River Delta, reported that in 2011, the province’s GDP increased by 9 percent to RMB3.2 trillion (US$506 billion).

Economic data from Sichuan show that it is the first province from West China to join the “2-trillion” club, with a GDP of RMB2.15 trillion (US$340 billion), provincial authorities said. Official figures show that the province’s growth rate was 14.7 percent year-on-year, more than 5 percent higher than the national average. Seven cities in Sichuan each reported GDP levels of over RMB100 billion last year, namely Chengdu RMB680 billion, Mianyang RMB118.91 billion, Deyang RMB113.75 billion, Yibin RMB109.12 billion, Nanchong RMB102.95 billion, Dazhou RMB101.18 billion and Liangshan RMB100 billion.

These annual reports from the local authorities reveal that while China’s economic growth slowed slightly, the country managed to avoid any major economic shocks and, instead, exceeded the national growth target by a significant margin.
 
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escobar

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Sany Heavy Industry Co. the construction-equipment maker run by China’s richest man, agreed to buy German concrete pump maker Putzmeister Holding GmbH in what they said is the largest Chinese-German transaction yet.

Sany and Chinese private equity company CITIC PE Advisors Ltd. will buy 100 percent of Putzmeister for an undisclosed price, according to an e-mailed statement today. Aichtal in Germany will become Sany’s new headquarter for concrete machinery and Norbert Scheuch will remain in his position as the head of Putzmeister under the Chinese owner.

Putzmeister, which has 3,000 employees and sales of 570 million euros ($751 million), provided concrete pumps to quell the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan last year and the Chernobyl meltdown in the 1980s. Chinese companies are increasingly hunting for European targets. Chinese solar-panel maker LDK Solar Co. plans to buy Germany’s Sunways AG (SWW) and Italian luxury-yacht builder Ferretti Group was sold to Shandong Heavy Industry Group-Weichai Group.

“With this merger Putzmeister and Sany will create a new and global market leader for concrete pumps,” said Liang Wengen, chairman and founder of Sany, in the statement. “Putzmeister will remain as an independent brand with its own management within the Sany group.”
 

Maggern

Junior Member
Interesting, so now we clearly see how growth is shifting to the next tier of provinces from the coast, with Chongqing being dead smack in the middle.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Interesting, so now we clearly see how growth is shifting to the next tier of provinces from the coast, with Chongqing being dead smack in the middle.

you got it

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U.S. Raps 'Damaging' China Policies

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sharply criticized China's state-led economic system on Friday, the latest salvo in an escalating trade conflict between the two countries.
"China does present a really unique challenge to the global trading system, because the structure of its economy, even though it has more of a market economy now, is overwhelmingly dominated by the state," he said at a public forum in Davos, Switzerland, during the World Economic Forum.

Chinese policies, including subsidized prices for energy and land and preferential access to capital, have been "very damaging" to trade partners, he said. "That's why it's very important that we get China to move comprehensively not just on the exchange rate but on dialing back its subsidies and distortions."

China's state-led capitalist system emerged as a hot topic at the World Economic Forum this week, as participants pondered the country's economic success in contrast to recent challenges faced by more free-market systems in the U.S. and Europe. Even within China, there has been rising debate over how fast to move ahead with liberalizing reforms and what kind of economic model the country ultimately aims for.

On the issue of the Chinese currency, Mr. Geithner argued that though the yuan has appreciated, it remains undervalued and is "still below almost all measures of fundamentals."

The yuan should rise not just against the U.S. dollar but also against the euro and the yen, he added.

In 2011, the yuan rose nearly 5% against the U.S. dollar, and around 6% against the euro.

Mr. Geithner's remarks fit the Obama administration's broader effort to be more assertive with China this election year, at a time when U.S. economic growth remains tepid and unemployment high.
Still, the tone was milder than that struck this week by President Barack Obama. In his State of the Union address, the president said this administration has brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration, and added, "But we need to do more. It's not right when another country lets our movies, music and software be pirated. It's not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg upon ours only because they're heavily subsidized."

Mr. Obama then announced plans to create a U.S. government task force designed to monitor China for possible trade and other commercial violations.

The White House plans to get tougher with Beijing on issues of currency, market access and intellectual property rights—all topics expected to be raised when China's Vice President Xi Jinping visits Washington next month.

The administration's moves are no surprise to Beijing. Mr. Geithner discussed the administration's plans with China's leaders during a trip there earlier this month. And Mr. Obama telegraphed his plans to challenge China more during his trip through Asia in November.

Members of Congress have increasingly pressured the White House to get tougher with China, and doing so has bipartisan appeal. Lawmakers of both parties, as well as union leaders and business owners, blame China for U.S. job losses and complain that China has unfair economic advantages.

At an earlier Davos panel on Friday hosted by the pro-reform Chinese magazine Caixin, editor-in-chief Hu Shuli identified delayed economic reform as one of the key risks for the Chinese economy, along with weakening exports in the wake the of the euro-zone crisis.

Reform efforts have stalled in China since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, which to many Chinese severely discredited the Western free-market model. Key reforms that would open up the country's financial sector such as the liberalization of interest rates and the opening of the capital account have been put on the back burner, and the timeline for their realization is uncertain.

The stall in liberalization has led to increasing public frustration on the part of some pro-reform intellectuals in China.

"What we need is reform-minded leaders and grassroots entrepreneurs, not a loose monetary policy and low interest rates," Zhang Weiying, a professor of economics at the elite Peking University, said at the Caixin forum in Davos.


Xu Xiaonian, an economics professor at the China-Europe International Business School, was even more strident in his remarks, saying China's state-capitalist model was in fact pioneered by Otto Von Bismarck, the 19th-century statesman credited with uniting Germany."When Bismarck invented this idea in 1870 it gave Germany impressive performance over the main superpower of the time, Great Britain," he said. But the state-capitalist system, he argued, ultimately played a role in precipitating two world wars and Nazism.

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China is committed to helping African nations to improve their abilities for self-development, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said on Friday.

Gao, also International Trade Representative of the Ministry of Commerce, made the remarks in an article published by Xinhua ahead of top Chinese political advisor Jia Qinglin's visit to Africa. Jia, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, is scheduled to attend the opening ceremony of the 18th African Union summit and pay an official visit to Ethiopia from Friday to Sunday.

"The major task of the economic and trade cooperation between China and Africa is to help improve Africa's development conditions and enhance its self-development capability," said the official.

In his article, Gao hailed the "fruitful" economic cooperation between China and Africa during the past few years.
China has become the largest trading partner of Africa and their trade volume reached 160 billion U.S. dollars in 2011, in comparison with 12 million dollars in 1950, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

At the same time, Africa has become one of China's top investment destinations. More than 2,000 Chinese enterprises are investing in the continent.

During the past few years, China has not only helped African nations to build schools, hospitals, bridges and other important projects, but has also sent many agricultural experts, medical professionals and volunteers to train nearly 30,000 personnel.

"As globalization goes on, the development of Africa cannot advance without the engagement of the outside world," Gao said, adding that both developed and emerging economies are development partners of Africa.

"Meanwhile, it should be Africans themselves that make their decisions on development," said the Chinese official, adding that outside partners should treat Africa fairly and see Africans' needs as their opportunities to maintain the momentum of cooperation, benefit each other and achieve common development.

While expanding aid to Africa, China is also providing preferential loans to African nations to improve the infrastructure and people's livelihoods there, Gao said.

China has set up six economic and trade cooperation zones and some development funds in Africa to attract more direct investment from China and incubate more small and medium-sized local enterprises.

"The Chinese enterprises (that run business in Africa) have started to combine their own development closely with the development of the local communities," said the vice commerce minister.

A China-Africa Brightness Action initiative, funded by Chinese enterprises and launched in 2010, on the 10th anniversary of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum, has provided more than 1,000 African patients with free eye surgery and brought light and hope to cataract patients living on the African continent, Gao said, "which is a vivid example of Chinese enterprises' commitment to social responsibility."

As the world is undergoing complex changes, China and Africa have even more common interests, sharing rare opportunities for development while addressing global challenges, said the official.

China and Africa are highly complementary to each other in economic terms, and China's products, technology and managerial experience are suitable for the development of Africa, especially when Africa is in the initial phase of industrialization and urbanization, Gao said.

The official said that China will make more efforts to balance its trade with Africa, increase investment in and expand aid to the continent and promote economic integration in Africa to help enhance Africans' capacity for self-development.

To deepen economic and trade cooperation serves not only the two sides' own development, but also their long-term interests, Gao added.

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The annual output value of China's satellite navigation industry is estimated to reach more than 225 billion yuan ($35.64 billion) in 2015, according to a latest research report on the country's geographic information sector.

Compiled by a think-tank under the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation, the report predicted the industry would become the country's third new IT economic growth point, after mobile communication and Internet.

More than 5,000 Chinese firms and organizations were now involved in the application and services of satellite navigation and the industry generated more than 50 billion yuan of output value in 2010, according to the report, published by the Social Sciences Academic Press.

China aims to increase the total number of satellite navigation terminals used by the public across the country to 340 million by 2015.

China began to build its Beidou Navigation Satellite System in 2000 with a goal of breaking its dependence on the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) and creating its own global positioning system by 2020.

The homegrown Beidou system began providing initial positioning, navigation and timing operational services to China and its surrounding areas from late last month.

Six more satellites will be launched in 2012 to further expand its service area to cover most parts of the Asia-Pacific region, according to the management office of the China Satellite Navigation System.
 

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Attack on China's currency exchange rate is totally unfair, as the renminbi (RMB), also known as yuan, has been continuously appreciating, an adviser to China's central bank said here on Friday.

"RMB exchange rate has probably caused the biggest misunderstanding between China and the world," Li Daokui, a member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) told Xinhua in an exclusive interview.

"Perceptions about the RMB exchange rate in the international community are absolutely groundless, as the yuan is probably the only emerging economy's currency that has been rising against the U.S. dollar since August last year," said Li.

"Take India's rupee for an example. The currency has declined about 20 percent against the U.S. dollar, while the yuan has been rising continuously, moderately and progressively," Li told Xinhua on the sidelines of the Annual Meeting of World Economic Forum in Davos.

Since the Chinese government embarked on the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism in June 2010, the currency has appreciated by more than 7.5 percent against the U.S. dollar, according to the PBOC.

Taking into account the higher rate of domestic inflation in China compared with the United States, the yuan has appreciated even more against the U.S. dollar, according to a report submitted by the U.S. Department of Treasury to the U.S. Congress on international economic and exchange rate policies in December.

The RMB has risen against the U.S. dollar on a real, inflation-adjusted basis by nearly 12 percent since June 2010 and nearly 40 percent since China first initiated its currency reform in 2005, said the report.

"Especially during October and November, many Chinese private investors started to spend the Chinese currency buying U.S. dollars, which is an indication that the currency is near an equilibrium level," Li said.

Thanks to a stronger yuan, China's trade surplus has shrunk from about 8 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) before the financial crisis in 2008 to 2.3 percent registered in 2011, according to the PBOC.

Li expected China's trade surplus to further decline in 2012 to 1 percent, mainly due to the stronger Chinese currency, which means the reform of the yuan's exchange rate mechanism has been successful.

"However, people in the international community don't even know the latest figures and their minds are filled with the old figures about China's trade surplus," the central bank adviser said.

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India-China bilateral trade hit a record $73.9 billion last year, but the ballooning trade deficit in Beijing's favour rose to over $27 billion, raising concern among Indian authorities.



The bilateral trade registered a $12.2 billion increase in 2011, taking the total to $73.9 billion as against $61.7 billion in 2010, according to official trade figures for the last year.

The trade deficit in 2011, however, piled up to $27.07 billion even though Indian exports to China went up to $23.4 billion registering a growth of almost 12.26 per cent compared to the same period in year 2010.

"The overall trade figure looks good but the deficit remains a cause for concern," Indian Ambassador to China S Jaishankar told PTI.
He said efforts are being made to improve market access for Indian products in China.

"We have some early signs of movement in access to the Indian IT products. But these are early days," he said, referring to various campaigns organised by the Indian Embassy to push IT and Pharmaceutical exports to China.

Most important thing is that the bilateral trade is growing well despite the global economic downturn, he said.

Chinese officials have been acknowledging India's concerns over trade deficit and the issue was expected to figure in detail in India-China Trade Ministers talks during the BRICS Commerce Meeting on March 28 in New Delhi.

The Indian exports, mainly composed of primary products and commodity sector, increased despite the decline of iron ore exports, which dominated exports to China for long due to ban on mining in Karnataka and Goa, said K Nagraj Naidu, head of the economic and trade wing of the Indian Embassy.

Chinese exports to India continue to surge crossing the $50 billion mark. The exports logged $50.04 billion registering a growth of 23.51 per cent over 2010.
The share of India-China bilateral trade in China's overall trade increased to about 3.8 per cent compared to 2.06 per cent in 2010.

Naidu said India's exports of ores, slag and ash to China have dropped by 11 per cent to 10.45 billion in 2011.
Iron ore which has traditionally been the top item of export has dropped by 14 per cent to $9.6 billion in 2011 compared to the $11.2 billion exports in 2010.

The share of iron ore in the basket of Indian exports to China has dropped to 41 per cent in 2011 compared to 54 per cent in 2010 and 55 per cent in 2009, he said.
The drop in iron ore exports could be attributed to the ban on mining in Karnataka, illegal mining in Goa, restriction on iron ore truck movements in Orissa.

Also the other reason could be that China is diversifying its spot iron ore purchases away from India, largely in favour of South Africa, Naidu said.
India's cotton, yarn and fabric exports to China have seen a growth of 49 per cent reaching $3.1 billion in 2011.

While India's concerns over trade deficit remained, Indian officials say that there are encouraging signs about Chinese investments in India even though figures are not available as most of the investments are coming through Singapore and Mauritius.

The high volumes of Chinese trade in India is also focussed on infrastructure development specially, telecom and energy generation equipment.


Over all trade and investment appears to emerging as a strong binding force for the bilateral ties, according to the officials.
India's items of export which have seen positive growth rates include, copper ($two billion) precious stones ($1.1 billion), organic chemicals ($999 million) slat, sulphur, earth, stone ($514 million) and machinery ($478 million).

Under machinery, India's principal exports to China included diesel machines worth $47 million and crank shafts worth $32 million. India is Chinas 16th largest source of imports.
 
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