Chinese Economics Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

How much of that R&D was for the military? i bet that it was a lot. I remember seeing on TV that 2 thirds of the soviet scientists worked for the military.

That is the problem with Soviet 30% of government spending is for military They built some of the best jet for the era but it doesn't do much for the civilian economy where shortage for consumer good is rampant. Soviet never developed consumer good economy like china does. Too much talent worked for defense industry leaving civilian sector with less talent. Another thing Chinese are entrepreneur by nature generating new product idea and job. The private sector of China is now much larger than the state sector something like 60% or even higher whereas in Soviet Union private sector are minuscule.

China is well connected with the world exporting the most whereas Soviet Union are an island by itself (autarky) . So there is no comparison between old Soviet Union and modern China . China will advance to the rich country within 2 to 3 years as it now gdp/capita is around $10000 and the limit for rich country gdp/capita is $12000
Ad Andrew said countries can't escape middle income if they can't generate high value product. But China spend humongous amount for money and talent in high tech, modern transportation, internet and cloud computing, AI, NEV etc. And expand the university education tremendously to the tune of 8 million graduate this year of which one third is STEM

 

[Overbom]

soviet economy ranked 2nd during all the cold war, except in the perestroika years (japan bubble years). Soviet output was about 50% of USA but the soviets where only a bit more than americans, chinese are 5 times the americans.

Soviet has nothing to be compared with China except being communist.

The whole system was corrupt from top to bottom.
Soviets also lost the computer/electronic train
Soviets also has huge administrative/bureaucratic inefficiencies
Etc.

Nothing to compare

 

[Hendrik_2000]

soviet economy ranked 2nd during all the cold war, except in the perestroika years (japan bubble years). Soviet output was about 50% of USA but the soviets where only a bit more than americans, chinese are 5 times the americans.

China is way more dynamic compare to Soviet Union Chinese economy is now close to 73% of US economy and She is the world factory . Chinese economy is driven by private initiative than state . Chinese economy is market driven instead of quota like soviet Union. Chinese economy is stepping up the ladder and very innovative and competitive . Chinese economy is efficient with huge supply chain and excellent infrastructure. Chinese economy is connected to the world market and their share is getting larger by the year. Soviet export is negligible So there is no comparison between Chinese economy and Soviet economy

 

[styx]

in my opinion is very auspicable that chinese economy will surpass usa on nominal base. But also on my opionion chinese government is making errors. I hope that this crackdown is guided by something beyond CCP desire to rule china by hard means, but this hope is fading.

 

[kentchang]

yes but it's not my point, i feel a sense of an imminent global economic catastrophe driven by the climate change. The ominous signals are everywhere (chip shortage, economic bubbles, inflation etc) it's like human economic system has reached earth peak resorces. And i thik that chinese government understood this before others.

You are a just an all-around sky-is-falling pessimist. Name one decade we didn't have some sort of shortage, natural disasters, economic bubbles, or inflation somewhere? The world did not end in 2000 or 2012. You forgot to list the 2019 biblical-proportion locust infestation.

China is projected to be a high-income country 15 months from now (i.e. end of 2022). Very doubtful climate change will have any impact.

The 2021 World Bank high-income cutoff is $12,696 (2020 = $12,615). China's 2020 number is $10,484 and is projected to reach $12,763 in 2022 (latest IMF estimate). All numbers in USD, not PPP so RMB appreciation helps.

China's high school graduation rate is still very low (~30% and average life-time schooling is only 14 years) so if China does make it to the high-income bracket, China will disapprove the theory that only countries with above 50% high school graduation rate can escape from the Middle-Income Trap.

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[Bob Smith]

You are a just an all-around sky-is-falling pessimist. Name one decade we didn't have some sort of shortage, natural disasters, economic bubbles, or inflation somewhere? The world did not end in 2000 or 2012. You forgot to list the 2019 biblical-proportion locust infestation.

China is projected to be a high-income country 15 months from now (i.e. end of 2022). Very doubtful climate change will have any impact.

The 2021 World Bank high-income cutoff is $12,696 (2020 = $12,615). China's 2020 number is $10,484 and is projected to reach $12,763 in 2022 (latest IMF estimate). All numbers in USD, not PPP so RMB appreciation helps.

China's high school graduation rate is still very low (~30% and average life-time schooling is only 14 years) so if China does make it to the high-income bracket, China will disapprove the theory that only countries with above 50% high school graduation rate can escape from the Middle-Income Trap.

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Anyone who argue China is going to hit a middle income trap at this point are either arguing in bad faith or completely ignorant of data.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China's high school graduation rate is still very low (~30% and average life-time schooling is only 14 years)

Source?

 

[caudaceus]

Source?

That aside I'd like to focus educational level on young folks, because if you don't graduate high school by 20 (more or less) you won't ever graduate at all.

 

[Maikeru]

Source?

Can't find anything re secondary education but I found this re tertiary:

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Which suggests mid-table mediocrity for China (think Crystal Palace) but of course does not account for the type and value of degree i.e. STEM vs Intersectional Feminist Underwater Basket Weaving with Critical Race Theory.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Can't find anything re secondary education but I found this re tertiary:

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Which suggests mid-table mediocrity for China (think Crystal Palace) but of course does not account for the type and value of degree i.e. STEM vs Intersectional Feminist Underwater Basket Weaving with Critical Race Theory.

all I see from that data is that if tertiary education enrollment percentages is a hard limit on prosperity, then China can get as high GDP per capita as Italy and with a little bit higher enrollment, as high as Germany.