Chinese Economics Thread

[Tyler]

Im not sure there is corruption regarding evergrande. AFAIK, china´s real estate is in a huge bubble (fuelled by constant liquidity from the government in order to grow the economy). Unsurprisingly, you have a situation like this.

There are stringent mortgage requirements for buyers of apartments. The Chinese government has not printed much money for the past couple years. The interest rates and bank reserve ratio have remain high. All these mean liquidity was introduced only when needed.

 

[styx]

i think that china cannot avoid middle income trap at this point. But because all the world economy will be seriously damaged by climate change not for the crackdown or us hostility. These will be hard times also for the chinese

 

[AndrewS]

i think that china cannot avoid middle income trap at this point. But because all the world economy will be seriously damaged by climate change not for the crackdown or us hostility. These will be hard times also for the chinese

The middle-income trap is when an economy cannot generate high-value jobs.

But remember that:

1. Total Chinese R&D spending today is the largest in the world - as per the National Science Foundation reports to Congress
2. Given that China is a middle-income country, China has an exceptionally high percentage of R&D spending at 2.5% of GDP. Only high-income countries can sustain anything over 2%, yet Chinese R&D spending is still growing fast. That should support the transition from middle-income to high-income status

 

[styx]

The middle-income trap is when an economy cannot generate high-value jobs.

But remember that:

1. Total Chinese R&D spending today is the largest in the world - as per the National Science Foundation reports to Congress
2. Given that China is a middle-income country, China has an exceptionally high percentage of R&D spending at 2.5% of GDP. Only high-income countries can sustain anything over 2%, yet Chinese R&D spending is still growing fast. That should support the transition from middle-income to high-income status

yes but it's not my point, i feel a sense of an imminent global economic catastrophe driven by the climate change. The ominous signals are everywhere (chip shortage, economic bubbles, inflation etc) it's like human economic system has reached earth peak resorces. And i thik that chinese government understood this before others.

 

[MrCrazyBoyRavi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1439523847305302017

Is Evergrande a good investment ?

 

[styx]

The middle-income trap is when an economy cannot generate high-value jobs.

But remember that:

1. Total Chinese R&D spending today is the largest in the world - as per the National Science Foundation reports to Congress
2. Given that China is a middle-income country, China has an exceptionally high percentage of R&D spending at 2.5% of GDP. Only high-income countries can sustain anything over 2%, yet Chinese R&D spending is still growing fast. That should support the transition from middle-income to high-income status

also soviet R&D in the 60's 70's was the second of the world.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

yes but it's not my point, i feel a sense of an imminent global economic catastrophe driven by the climate change. The ominous signals are everywhere (chip shortage, economic bubbles, inflation etc) it's like human economic system has reached earth peak resorces. And i thik that chinese government understood this before others.

The ominous signals are everywhere (chip shortage, economic bubbles, inflation etc)

Were all of this occurring pre-Trump/ China economic sanctions era/covid-19? All the things you mentioned need not happened but happened because the other side needed it to happen for now obvious geopolitical reasons that am sure you have some familiarity with. The eruption of Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated the existing problems that most of the western world is now gripping with. So I do take issue and contentions with your characterization of the situation on how these problems manifested artificially and not based on some unforeseen natural cataclysmic events.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

also soviet R&D in the 60's 70's was the second of the world.

Was the Soviet economy globally integrated and intertwined? And did Soviet economy was as big or managed to reach 70% of the U.S. economic output? Yes or No?

 

[Orthan]

also soviet R&D in the 60's 70's was the second of the world.

How much of that R&D was for the military? i bet that it was a lot. I remember seeing on TV that 2 thirds of the soviet scientists worked for the military.

 

[styx]

soviet economy ranked 2nd during all the cold war, except in the perestroika years (japan bubble years). Soviet output was about 50% of USA but the soviets where only a bit more than americans, chinese are 5 times the americans.