Chinese Economics Thread

weig2000

Captain
Comparison with past years exports for China

2019(Jan-Aug):
US$1607.04 billion
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2021(Jan-Aug):
US$2.1 trillion
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So thats an increase of half a trillion in just 2 years (should be 1 due to covid..)
Or, ~30% increase in 2 years.

Guys, I might be wrong but I think that Made-in-China 2025 might be working, to the dismay of western "analysts"

According to Ministry of Commerce officials, the total merchandise trade volume this year is projected to be at $5.1 trillion, reaching the target set for the 14th Five-Year Plan (at the end of 2025).

Yes, you read it right - the merchandise trade target set for the end of the five-year plan will be achieved by the end of the first year of the five-year plan!
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Both are events more and more educated Chinese consider wrong.

Wow! This implies non of us here are educated. How condescending is that?


Well my argument is that by apologizing for mistakes of GLF and CR, the CCP could become less vulnerable to those who try to delegitimize it by playing the original sins card. The reason why I compared GLF and CR to white supremacy in the West is because every country and regime has its own original sins, and these original sins make every country vulnerable to a certain extend. To your second point about the original intent of GLP and CR, while GLF indeed had to intent of improving China's rural economic development and industrial self-sufficiency, CR was simply a game played by Mao and his lieutenants to purge their political rivals through mob rule. Thus, CR was indeed sinister since Mao and his lieutenants intended to maximize their monopoly of political power at the expense of the CCP itself, the Chinese economy, education system, and national defense. Instead of willingly accept his own mistakes back in 1958 and let Liu Shaoqi and Deng take charge of China's economy during the 1950-1966 period, Mao launched the CR because he feared that his opponents were trying to delegitimize him due to the failure of GLF.

End Result: Mao built the PRC, but nearly destroyed it when his own colleagues simply had different economic development strategy from him after 1959.

Justice: The Gang of Four was indeed punished, but critical examinations of the CR is still not encouraged (if not censored) in Chinese universities and social science research institutes.

Contemporary Chinese Government Position: CR was indeed wrong and should not be repeated. However, research institutes outside of the Party are not allowed to study it for fear of creating domestic division. Hence, still count as semi-cover-up. Also, while right-wing scholars continue to have their arguments censored, Maoists (including those calling for another CR or abolishment of private properties) were never subjected the strict censorship that right-wing and liberal scholars are subjected to. Isn't this double standard with CCP characteristics?

You are entitled to your opinons, but please please keep them to yourself! Especially when it's so condescending .

That's to say nothing of your Western condescension.

Soot on.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
I'm hearing a lot about Evergrande problems in the MSM these days. Will it become systemic issue similar to the 08?

IIRC look at it this way.

The bank or financial company, had two jobs, or doing business on two levels.

One is trying to get money from people they made loans to, so this is like a collection agency, (to simply things).

Two is making loans to others, (being a banker making loans).

Now the situation on the ground, as we know in 2008, everyone owed everyone else a lot of money and were on the hook for derivatives contracts.

IIRC there was actually a contract or derivative on the failure of Lehman Bros. People were actually betting on that. It was long-shot, but it came in.

Once Lehman Bros failed, it was the domino effect, and they could not pay, and their creditors without that money owed could pay their creditors, and those creditors could not pay their creditors and so on.

So once Lehman Bros failed, everyone was short on money on Wall Street. The collection agencies that part of the business needed money.

When a business needs money, they get a loan.

But now, this is the other level of the business, that the same companies had to go to each other to get a loan. But with taking a hit to balance sheet, you can only loan out so much, so no one was lending.

At first with the Lehman Bros failing, the collection agency at the firm could not collect any money, and since they took a lost, they had no money to lend out at the banking division at the same firm.

So the entire system seized up, because there was no money.

When everyone demands money, interest rates shoot up, which tanked the economy and the stock market and bond markets took a beating.

The systemic risk worked like that I believe, everyone owed everyone else on Wall Street money or derivatives, and they were the same people giving out the loans, to support this game.

China does not have such derivative markets, I do not think so.

If this real estate firm collapses, it should affect some people, but not the entire system. The derivatives were the main cause for the systemic risk back in Wall Street in 2008.

---------------------------------------------------------

Note that the derivatives here are not just the simple futures or options, there were much more complicated ones. Those Wall Street firms dreamed them up on their own, without any regulatory oversight.

---------------------------------------------------------

The reason for this long winded post, is the system was never reformed as far as I can tell.

Wall Street still playing the same games. The systemic risk is still all there, just like in 2008.

Obama did nothing to clean it up. His VP Biden and lackeys are now in power.

Maybe Orange Man will do something about it when he reappears.

We can only hope!

:D
 
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DarkStar

Junior Member
Registered Member
George Soros is obviously upset that President Xi is not Boris Yeltsin, and that China is not following the kleptocracy dependency that warped Russia’s economy. Soros thought the ending of the Cold War would simply let him buy up the most lucrative rent-yielding assets, as he has aimed to do in the Baltics and Ukraine. China said “No,” so it is not deemed to be a “market economy,” Soros-style. It has not made its social organization marketable, and has avoided the financial dependency that makes “markets” a vehicle for U.S. control via sanctions and foreign buyouts.
China should make a point of turning Soros into a pauper; let that be a lesson to western billionaires who hope to do a repeat of the 97 eaat asian financial crisis.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Australians are greedy and they only look at others through the lens of their own greed. So what if they "declare victory" in what? China can get the things they use to get from Australia somewhere else. That isn't victory for China? But what they can't escape is they lost what they had. Greedy people want more and especially if they had it and then lost it pisses them off. So they did lose because they wanted it all and didn't get it. Soros... another one who only sees the world through the lens of how much they get from it not anyone else. In the US there's the question of the richest 3% owning most of the wealth. Now who do you think is more honestly going to spread the wealth around? I was reading some guy's comment yesterday whining about how the US should stop outsourcing to China and instead outsource to Mexico and other Latin countries. Mexicans make on average double what a Chinese makes yet over in China you see gleaming new cities and infrastructure like HSR. You don't see that in Mexico. So who do you think is more trustworthy with that money?
 

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Translation of the much talked about essay by Li Guangman:

Everyone Can Sense That a Profound Transformation is Underway!
China’s entertainment industry has never lacked for scandals that stink to high heaven. Taken together, the recent back-to-back scandals involving Kris Wu and Henry Huo, Zhang Zhehan’s “devil worship” at Japan’s Yasukuni Shrine, and now the rape allegation against Hunan TV host Qian Feng have made people feel that the Chinese entertainment industry is rotten to the core. Without a swift crackdown, entertainment will not be the only thing that rots—the arts, literature, culture, performance, film and television spheres will all follow suit.

In the past few days, yet another storm has struck the beleaguered world of entertainment: the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) launched a heavy crackdown on celebrity “fan clubs,” the State Taxation Administration (STA) fined actress Zheng Shuang 299 million yuan [$46 million] for tax evasion, and Zhao Wei and Gao Xiaosong were banned and deplatformed. What does this heavy blow against the entertainment world portend?

On August 25, the CAC issued
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aimed at cleaning up chaotic celebrity fan clubs: first, cancel celebrity and artist rankings; second, optimize and adjust ranking rules; third, strictly regulate entertainment agencies; fourth, standardize fan group accounts; fifth, ban doxxing; sixth, clean up groups that violate regulations; seventh, ban enticing fans into making purchases; eighth, tighten programming regulations; ninth, strictly control participation by minors; and tenth, standardize fan fundraising. The guidelines specifically call for [all localities] to improve their political stance while ensuring political and ideological security online, creating a “clean” cyberspace, and advancing the work of cleaning up chaotic fan clubs. As this is obviously a political action, all localities must view this rectification campaign from a larger political perspective.

Not coincidentally, on August 27, the STA announced their decision in actress Zheng Shuang’s tax evasion case. Their investigation found that Zheng Shuang signed a 160 million yuan contract to star in the 2019 television series “A Chinese Ghost Story.” She was subsequently paid 156 million yuan in two installments. She falsely reported the first installment of 48 million yuan as corporate income rather than personal income, thus evading taxation. For the second installment of 108 million, the producers signed a fake contract with a company controlled by Zheng Shuang and made payments structured as “capital injections,” enabling her to avoid industry regulators’ oversight, receive “sky-high remuneration,” conceal her income by filing false reports, and evade taxation. Over the course of “A Chinese Ghost Story,” Zheng Shuang evaded 43.027 million yuan in taxes, and underpaid another 16.1778 million yuan in owed taxes. The investigation also found that, after the film and TV industry revised its income and taxation structures in 2018, Zheng Shang again disguised 35.07 million yuan in performance fees by falsely reporting them as corporate income rather than personal income. The facts are that Zheng Shuang evaded 2.2426 million yuan in taxes, and underpaid another 10.3429 million yuan in taxes. In total, from 2019 to 2020, Zheng Shuang failed to report 191 million yuan in personal income, evaded 45.27 million yuan in taxes, and underpaid another 26.52 million yuan in taxes.

In accordance with the relevant laws and regulations, Zheng Shuang has been ordered to pay 299 million yuan in combined taxes, late fees, and penalties: 71.7903 million of this is unpaid taxes and 8.8898 million is late fees. For the portion of her income that she misrepresented in order to evade taxes, she was fined 30.6857 million yuan, or four times the misrepresented amount; for the portion of her income that she attempted to conceal by falsely reporting it as a “capital injection,” she was fined 188 million yuan, the maximum penalty of five times the falsely reported amount. According to the Criminal Law of the People’s Republic of China, the tax agency will hand her case to the police should she fail to pay in time. The National Radio and Television Administration subsequently issued a notice requiring TV broadcasters at all levels to stop airing any programmes in which Zheng Shuang appeared, and to ban her from participating in future productions. Lately, Zhao Wei [Vicky Zhao], no stranger to the headlines, is in trouble again. On August 26, Zhao Wei’s “super topic” page disappeared from Weibo and her name was deleted from the credits for “My Fair Princess,” “Romance in the Rain,” and various other films and television series on Tencent and iQiyi.

By rights, Zhao Wei should have disappeared from the Chinese public eye twenty years ago, but instead, she has thrived. Twenty years ago, she became the target of an internet-wide crusade for wearing a dress emblazoned with the “rising sun” flag of the invading Imperial Japanese Army. But rather than being banned, she somehow became a mover and shaker in China’s capital markets, hailed as China’s “female Warren Buffet.” Back when she was rubbing shoulders with Jack Ma, Wang Lin, and other titans, she was able to control public opinion and routinely had unflattering news stories about her scrapped before publication. Later, when she directed “No Other Love,” she cast the die-hard Taiwan independence advocate Dai Liren [Leon Dai] as the male lead and the anti-Chinese actress Kiko Mizuhara—who supports praying at Yasukuni Shrine—as the female lead, thus incurring the public’s wrath. What strikes one as odd is that the whole thing blew over so quickly. Recently, Zhang Zhehan, an actor signed to Zhao Wei’s production company, appeared at Yasukuni Shrine multiple times, performed a Nazi salute, and cozied up to Japanese right-wingers, triggering a national uproar in China. The question remains how Zhao, despite so much negative publicity, was not toppled sooner. It was puzzling, but now we can look back and see: retribution had to bide its time.

Gao Xiaosong, another American whose works were deplatformed at the same time as Zhao Wei’s, has long been broadcasting programs such as “Xiao Speaks” and “Xiaosong Pedia” on Chinese television and the internet. He spouts utter nonsense about history, bends the knee to worship America, and has hoodwinked a certain group of Chinese into becoming his fans.

What sort of feeling do we get, just by looking at the events of the last two days—the crackdown on fan groups, Zheng Shuang being fined, and works by Zhao Wei and Gao Xiaosong being banned and deplatformed? If we take a broader political perspective on this series of events, we can discern a historical and developmental trend.

Consider the suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, the central government’s antitrust policies and reorganization of the economic order, the 18.2 billion yuan fine levied on Alibaba and the investigation of Didi Global, the grand commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, the proposed path to common prosperity, and the recent series of actions to clean up the mess in the entertainment industry. What these events tell us is that a monumental change is taking place in China, and that the economic, financial, cultural, and political spheres are undergoing a profound transformation—or, one could say, a profound revolution. It marks a return from “capitalist cliques” to the People, a shift from “capital-centered” to “people-centered.” It is, therefore, a political transformation in which the People will once again be front and center, and all those who obstruct this people-centered transformation will be left behind. This profound transformation also marks a return to the original intent of the Chinese Communist Party, a return to a people-centered approach, and a return to the essence of socialism.


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