Chinese Economics Thread

delft

Brigadier
Obama is talking nonsense and he has been president long enough to know it. As for "gaming" the international system, the US has been doing so at least since they let their trading partners pay for the war against Vietnam and, in its aftermath, floated the dollar in 1971. But of course this is electioneering and there everything is allowed.
 

Player 0

Junior Member
Does anyone really think this matters?

Both Clinton and Bush did the same during their election period and both had very good trade terms with China. I doubt it'll be any different now, in fact if history is any judge the republicans will be more likely to backtrack on their tough talk as their policies like those of McCain showed they were very pro-immigrant and pro-trade.

Either it all depends on what big business want, labour unions and grass roots groups and the rhetoric that appeals to them is all for show.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Harsh language... China should be scared... Not!

I like the spin of how Obama's initiative at the APEC summit has brought together countries against China. That didn't happen during the Cold War? It's the same countries. Nothing new.

Personally I'd like to see someone follow through with their threats. I know that's a shocker for those who support such threats because I know they tease it exactly for the same reasons a terrorist makes a threat. They like to think people are going to be in a panic and they get a power trip over it. Take a look at the reactions to China maybe not helping bail the EU out. A lot of anger at China just thinking of not helping. But the contradiction is buying US debt sets off alarm bells. So why is this any different? Because they're just looking at any excuse to hate China. Just like I pointed out before about China holding back on rare earths is an outsourcing story where everyone that is against outsourcing gets what they want. But they're still angry.

Contrary to what the propagandists put out there, China's doing business with the EU and the US still don't make the majority of China's foreign trade. Yeah it would be a disturbance if a trade war were to happen but that would just force a positive readjustment for China. Just think about how a large portion of China's pollution is due to manufacturing for foreign corporations. Or how about the scouring of the world for raw materials, where China has been criticized, that go into in part in making those very products. The charge is China uses slave labor and artificially lowers prices to undercut the competition. Really? If that's the case then China doesn't get much from that. Slave labor means workers are getting paid nothing or very little. Artifically lowering prices overseas means the factory owner isn't making a profit. How long does US manufacturing have to be killed so China can then exploit and so someday that hasn't happened yet for some reason send prices through the roof? When you take a look at China's richest, you don't see many having to do with foreign corporations or markets. What does that say is the domestic market is the pillar of the Chinese economy. China has a market the size of a continent. Can they say the same for all the other countries that are needed to gang up on China who have been insulated from the West's financial crisis because of China? You think the West has any power to call for an embargo of China, because that's what they would need, when doing business with China has kept all the supposedly key countries against China comfortable from the West's troubles?

Please, someone carry through with your threats so that reality falls on top of you like a ton of bricks. But then that's why they don't follow through on their threats.
 

lostsoul

Junior Member
Obama uses very strong language about china´s trade, IPR, and currency pratices:

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what do you think? so far the obama administration hasnt endorsed strong anti-china legislation that is pending right now in congress. But could it change next year, a year of election?

It's all for US public consumption. Blame everyone else apart from the White House Administration. Article on ZeroHedge pointing out since 2005 the US$ has dropped 16% while the RMB has increased 38%. With the constant QE by Bernanke (printing more FIAT paper) is just another way of devaluing your currency. The USA forced Japan to increase the power of the Yen in the 80's ( iirc). Look what is happening to Japan's economy now - stagflation ever since. China should carry on buying gold then tell Uncle Sam to buy his own treasuries. ;)
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
All those prediction of China crashing like a ton of brick is nothing but schadenfreude

BlackRock Doubts China Economy In For Hard Landing

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BlackRock, one of the biggest investment funds in the world, is not sold on a China hard landing.
Dismantling The China Hard Landing Narrative

“While there are undoubtedly some significant risks to growth brewing in China’s economy, such as with: local government funding vehicle debt levels, a credit growth slowdown, the possibility of a property price bubble, and the negative impacts on exports from developed world troubles, but a hard economic landing — or severe financial crisis– in China is not our base case,” BlackRock Investment Institute said in a report last month. The Institute provides intelligent reports for BlackRock fund managers and high net worth clients.

China’s strong fiscal situation and implicit government support for the banking system, provide ample cover from a hard landing.

BlackRock economists said there was a very low likelihood of economic hard landing in at least the next 6 to 12 months. “We believe that inflation — while perhaps understated by official statistics — has likely peaked in China, and should trend down to more
manageable levels.” Inflation fell below 6% this month, its lowest level on the year. Inflation in China is the lowest of all the big emerging markets.

Additionally, since the Chinese government’s top officials are going to be replaced next year by new leaders within the Communist Party, there is an incentive to keep the status quo and avoid social unrest. Interest rates could come down as early as the first quarter of 2012, with the new leadership offering up targeted fiscal incentives for small and mid-sized companies to encourage job growth as the economy slows from 10%-plus growth to around 9% next year, according to International Monetary Fund GDP forecasts.

BlackRock said that based on its evidence, local government debt levels should be manageable even if state banks were forced to write down significant amounts of non-performing loans because of real estate. The banking sector would likely be supported materially by central government resources if commercial real estate developers defaulted on loans.

Hard landing aficionados point to China’s housing bubble as one reason for their call. There has been a tremendous amount of discussion of a property bubble hurting China’s banking system and the economy overall. BlackRock said that, “We acknowledge that
there are material risks embedded in segments of the real estate markets, and in the lending that supports it, we also think some
of the rhetoric on this issue has been overdone. There does appear to be a property bubble in China’s Tier 1 cities such as
Shanghai and Beijing, but this must be understood in the broader context that many other regions of the country are not experiencing analogous bubble-like conditions. The oft repeated stories of empty apartment buildings and whole cities have been
exaggerated and there is little evidence of exceptionally high vacancy rates.”

China’s central government has enacted policies to curb housing price inflation, including raising interest rates and the amount of money required for a down payment on first, second and third homes. Housing prices have been declining as a result of these policies, but on balance, home prices in nearly all of China’s mid-sized to large cities have risen by at least 1% to as much as 10% over the last 12 months ending in September, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The genuine challenge to China’s economy is future demographics. China’s economy added more than 100 million people to its working population over the past decade, but it will add less than 20 million over the next ten years due to an aging population. Those retirees will need China’s working age population to pay taxes to support the country’s fledgling social safety network, putting it in a similar boat as the U.S. in 2015.
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I wonder if Lenovo will be one of the first well known chinese tech brands, they and huawei are both top seeds in this race i think.
Lenovo are certainly stepping up their game, 2nd largest PC maker or something now,in 2011.

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Protect And Attack: Lenovo's New Strategy

By: Chuck SalterNovember 22, 2011
Once an unlikely rival for HP and Apple, Chinese computer maker Lenovo has grown and adapted as quickly as its homeland. Now, with a savvy blend of East and West, it's poised to be China's first global brand.

J
ust west of the Bird's Nest, that architectural jewel of the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing, rises an electronics district of Olympic proportions. It's called Zhongguancun, and if you need a computer or smartphone or camera or any other digital device when in China's capital, this is the place to go. Hundreds of mostly compact stores crowd the complex's dozen glass towers as tightly as commuters on the subway at rush hour. It's like a year-round Consumer Electronics Show, with every major brand, from Apple to HP to Dell to Sony, vying for attention and sales.

But one brand is nearly ubiquitous: Lenovo. In the U.S., we think a couple of Starbucks located a block apart is overkill. Here in Beijing's high-tech mecca, the Chinese computer maker doesn't have three stores or even three dozen: Lenovo has 100 stores in just this one shopping area. Some are so close together you can walk out of one store and see two more, one to the left, beyond the street vendors cooking pork on portable grills, and another straight ahead, just past the sea of parked bikes. The bigger Lenovo locations offer the gamut of products--laptops, desktops, netbooks, notebooks, tablets, smartphones--while the smaller ones cater to niches, say, small-business owners or young consumers. Outside the Zhongguancun towers, a Times Square-size digital screen continually plays the company's ads. A third of the computers sold in the district are Lenovos, roughly approximating its market share in the whole of China, where it is by far the No. 1 seller of PCs. Its network of 15,000-plus stores reaches into the most remote of villages. That's almost as many locations as Starbucks has in the entire world--and roughly 14,700 more stores than Apple has.

For the past two years, Lenovo has been the fastest-growing company in the PC industry. In the third quarter of 2011, it sold a record 13.5% of PCs worldwide, leapfrogging Dell and Acer to seize the No. 2 spot. (Only HP sells more.) Dominating China has much to do with Lenovo's success; the rising supereconomy became the world's largest PC market this year. "If you wanted a company to maximize the current world economic condition, you'd design one very similar to this," says Silicon Valley-based tech analyst Rob Enderle. "There's no other company like it."

"This is Lenovo's moment," says Lenovo CEO Yang Yuanqing, 47, a former salesman who once delivered computers by bicycle and is now China's highest-paid chief executive. (His 2011 salary: $12 million.) Yang calls Lenovo's strategy "protect and attack," three words you hear repeatedly at the company's headquarters in Beijing and its offices in Raleigh, North Carolina, where Yang spends a third of his time. Lenovo seeks to protect its core business--the China and enterprise (large-scale commercial and public-sector) markets, which generated about 70% of its $21 billion in revenue last year. On the attack side, he's pumping Lenovo's profits--$273 million in 2010--into emerging markets, new product categories (tablets, smartphones, smart TVs), and, of course, the U.S.

Ask the average American to name top Chinese brands and the list usually starts and stops with Tsingtao beer. As Lenovo CMO David Roman--formerly of Apple and HP--says, "The business is ahead of the brand." Stateside, Lenovo is best known as the outfit that came out of nowhere to buy IBM's PC division and ThinkPad brand in 2005. Which is why in 2011, Lenovo launched its largest-ever branding campaign, aiming to become the first global consumer brand to emerge from China.

Lenovo is a company the likes of which we've never seen. It is a product of Communist China (the government still owns 36% of its parent, Legend Holdings); it is heavily influenced by the democratized West; it boasts an international workforce of 27,000 employees and customers in more than 160 countries. But the story of Lenovo's rise is also a parable for Chinese business: In just 30 years, an enterprise launched in the Beijing equivalent of a garage--by a founder who endured forced relocation and admits he bungled his early attempts at business--has blossomed at a pace no one predicted. Lenovo is redefining "Made in China," producing the industry's highest-quality machines; it ranked No. 1 in the 2011 Computer Reliability Report, ahead of Apple and HP. And the company's culture skillfully blends an Eastern way of thinking with the best of Western business, demonstrating innovation and nimbleness that would impress--and unnerve--the most skeptical Silicon Valley digerati.

A few miles north of the Zhongguancun shops, on the top floor of a gleaming Beijing tower, Lenovo founder Liu Chuanzhi meets me in September at Legend Holdings' offices. We sit across from each other in an elegant conference room, at a long table arranged as if heads of state were negotiating a treaty (four place settings on each side, complete with teacups and water glasses). Liu, who is 67 but seems older, is short, with wire-frame glasses and a pensive manner. Rotating my business card in his fingers, he listens intently, both to the questions I pose in English and to his interpreter's translation. He chooses his words carefully, letting them out in a low, raspy stream. "Chinese people know Americans or the United States more than vice versa," he nods at one point. "Much more."

He's known to Lenovo employees as Chairman Liu, or simply the Chairman, an honorific that echoes that of another Chinese leader, Mao Zedong. Throughout his homeland, Liu commands respect akin to Henry Ford or Sam Walton in the U.S., and his journey reflects the evolution of his country. After graduating from a military college in 1968, he was assigned by the government to be a researcher for the Ministry of Defense. "It was impossible for most Chinese to do what they wanted," he recalls. "China, in those old days, was dominated by class struggle."

That same year, the Cultural Revolution upended his life. Mao sent young graduates like Liu, the son of a banker, to be "reeducated" in the countryside. For two years, he worked on state-owned farms and lived in a shared, wood-frame tent. In the summer, the mercury soared past 100 degrees, but the mental anguish and fears for the future were worse than the heat. "We might end up there for the rest of our lives," he says. "I felt that the hope for myself and for the whole of China was very slim."

After Mao declared the end of the Cultural Revolution, Liu was allowed to leave the countryside. He was assigned to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a government research institute in Beijing. He felt fortunate not to be consigned to a factory but still felt caged--"There was no shifting jobs," he says--until an unexpected door opened in the early 1980s. With Mao dead and Deng Xiaoping in power, the academy's president was encouraged to find ways to help the economy. He made a visit to IBM--prophetic, it would turn out--where he saw how R&D fueled growth. Upon his return to Beijing, he encouraged his staff to turn their research into businesses. Liu, then 40, says he felt like "a person who has experienced starvation and suddenly you're presented with steak."

In China, some jobs are called iron rice bowls; they'll always provide enough for you to eat, but they're utilitarian and unfulfilling. Liu flung his iron rice bowl away. In 1984, he and 10 colleagues, armed with 200,000 RMB (about $25,000) from the academy, started the Chinese Academy of Sciences Computer Technology Research Institute New Technology Development Co. The name was as cumbersome as the group was clueless about business; none had studied or even read a book about it. Based in a cramped guard shack on the outskirts of Beijing, the company--which changed its name to Legend and in 2004 to Lenovo--developed a Chinese-character card that made foreign PCs accessible to Chinese-language users. Most firms formed in the early days of China's liberalization were state controlled, but Liu negotiated some independence for Legend. He forged a partnership with the U.S. company AST, which became China's top-selling brand. But even as he was building relationships with multinationals, Liu says he had to deploy "local smarts" to survive in the chaos of China's emerging semicapitalism, including buying foreign currency on the black market to purchase parts. Then, in 1990, despite misgivings from AST, he launched a Legend-branded PC. Business flourished--until the government changed its rules again.

In 1991, Chinese tariffs on foreign computers were lowered, eventually spawning an influx of competitors. Liu's company stumbled, losing money for the first time. His health faltered and he wound up in the hospital, where his managers visited his bedside and discussed how to save the company. The answer, Liu decided, was to reorganize its PC business and put one of those managers, a 29-year-old named Yang Yuanqing, in charge. Yang, who goes by the nickname YY, is tall and bespectacled, with a reserved smile and side-parted straight black hair. He's a child of the Cultural Revolution; like Liu, Yang's parents, both surgeons, were dispatched to work as rural laborers. Yang had to cook meals for his siblings over a coal fire. After he graduated from college, he joined what would later become Lenovo as a salesman. "I sold the product and then had to install everything," he says. "I had to pick up the machine from the warehouse to test it and used a bicycle to deliver it. I had to collect the money myself. And if a customer had a problem, I became the service people."

We're at Lenovo's headquarters, a Beijing campus where serene pools of water separate the office buildings. Other than the young guard manning the entrance, who looks as humorless as those stationed around Tiananmen Square, the vibe inside feels cheery and collegiate. Young employees are everywhere, hanging out in the lobby's tea cafe, holding a dance practice (soundtrack: Lady Gaga) ahead of China's National Day celebrations, and dining in the boisterous cafeteria, where the scheduled lunch hour encourages bonding.

When Yang took over the PC unit, he focused on speed, inspired by what he saw at Lenovo's more-experienced foreign partners. In 1996, Lenovo was the first in China to offer a Pentium-powered machine--at a lower price than the competition was asking for slower PCs.

"Our orders, um, how you say--" Yang says, turning to Lawrence Yu, his executive assistant, who graduated from Harvard Business School.

"Surge," Yu says.

"Yes, surge," Yang says, smiling.

As the PC giants released a comparable product in China, Lenovo moved on to the next-generation chip.

Another surge. And on it went. "There's no way they can catch up," he recalls, punctuating his accented but nearly fluent English with his trademark laugh--a subtle heh-heh that often coincides with his tweaking the competition. By 1997, Lenovo was China's top-selling PC maker, a position it still holds.

Chairman Liu had long dreamed of building a global company. So, in 2005, Lenovo paid $1.75 billion for IBM's PC business, a stunning move that the Chinese media described as a snake swallowing an elephant. Acquiring an American icon made Liu something of a national hero in China. But it also created a corporate marriage of immense complexity that, initially, did not go well. IBM's PC unit had $10 billion in revenue, but it was losing money. Lenovo was profitable but generated less than a third as much revenue and was run by executives who didn't speak English and had zero multinational experience. (Not to mention the cultural chasm: Liu used to insist that late arrivals to a meeting stand in the corner, a punishment he imposed even on himself.) Deciding that Westerners were better equipped to take their creation to the next level, Liu and Yang stepped back, handing the CEO title first to IBM vet Steve Ward and then to former Dell exec Bill Amelio. The experiment floundered. The Americans couldn't bridge the culture gap with Beijing, and during four difficult years of cost cutting, morale plunged. Then the 2008 financial crisis devastated Lenovo's enterprise business. The company posted a $226 million loss, its biggest ever.

So, in 2009, Yang and Liu reclaimed their previous roles, and Yang launched his protect-and-attack strategy to forge a return to profitability. The key to success, says Yang, remains speed, which takes many forms. Lenovo is slashing the delivery time to Dubai from eight weeks to four, thanks to a new, well-placed distribution center. Its LePhone A60, Lenovo's new smartphone in China, took less than six months to develop, half the typical cycle. And the company is keeping as little as five weeks of inventory on hand so that stores can pivot based on sales. "You cannot tolerate high inventory," Yang says, flashing his authoritarian side.

Speed is highly valued in Lenovo's decision-making process as well. Two years ago, Yang streamlined the company's senior leadership team from more than two dozen members to nine. "They've reduced the number of approvals needed to make a change," says Ezra Gottheil, a senior analyst with TBR. "That closes the decision cycle."

Although the leaders are based in six different cities on three continents, they meet at least bimonthly to review the business, typically spending three or four days together in a key market, visiting local stores and listening to partners, customers, and employees. While the goal is to align big-picture goals, the team also seeks quick action. After a visit to India, Lenovo boosted its marketing and overhauled store displays throughout the country. Market share promptly shot up.

The emphasis on speed at Lenovo is particularly compelling because it's twinned with a deliberate effort to slow other things down. Upon his return as chairman, Liu emphasized a concept called fu pan. It means "replaying the chess board." The idea is to examine your every move to improve the next time. Lenovo trains its managers in fu pan, which can entail short reviews of an incident from that workday or a far more in-depth process. "I'm going to do one about this interview," Anjani Bhargava, an executive director in organizational development, tells me. "I want to go over what I said." Adds CFO Wong Wai Ming: "The most dangerous thing is to be successful. You then think every decision is the right one. That's why you have to review what you do."

Slideshow: Lenovo: The Apple Of China... And Then Some

One Sunday morning in September, Yang takes the stage in a ballroom at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in San Francisco for an annual gathering of Lenovo's top 100 executives from around the globe. Nearly all, including Yang, wear red San Francisco 49ers T-shirts. (After the morning session, the group is headed to the 49ers-Dallas Cowboys game.) Yang, normally low-key, sounds like a coach giving a pep talk: Dell has no clear strategy! HP's future is anybody's call! "We must attack the market without hesitation!" he exclaims. "Right, team?"

"Yes!!!!" the Lenovo execs roar.

The resounding chorus reflects an intense, even militaristic camaraderie that has taken root in the past two years. Company unity has always been a priority for Chairman Liu; in the early days, he bought a pig farm to ensure that employees would have food in hard times. But maintaining that ethos has been a challenge since the IBM purchase, especially as Lenovo's ranks diversified. The execs in San Francisco represent 14 nationalities. Conversations spring up in a half-dozen languages. Two of the newest top managers hail from Germany and Japan, thanks to Lenovo's acquisitions of PC makers Medion and NEC. Another much-ballyhooed hire comes from Italy; following a secret meeting in China last summer, Yang persuaded longtime rival Gianfranco Lanci, who had left his post as CEO of Acer, to be a Lenovo consultant.

Yang recognizes that integrating non-Chinese perspectives and talents is critical to Lenovo's success. (Blending East and West even happens in his family: One of his sons attends school in Beijing, the other in Raleigh.) That's why the exec team is going to the 49ers game and later holding an Iron Chef-style team-cooking contest.

Non-Chinese talent is crucial to their marketing plans. "The brand is definitely the most important area," says Yang, who oversaw Lenovo's first-ever advertising effort; his team spelled out the company name in the office windows because they couldn't afford a billboard.

Enter David Roman, whom Yang successfully recruited as CMO in 2010. Roman earned a reputation as a stellar marketer at Apple and then at HP, where he oversaw its "The Computer Is Personal Again" campaign, Advertising Age's top campaign in 2006. "There are going to be global brands from outside the U.S. and Europe, and China is going to have a number of those," says Roman. "The opportunity to be in the driver's seat for maybe the first one is very compelling."

At Lenovo, his challenge isn't changing consumers' perception of a brand. It's introducing a brand and having it resonate. Last spring, for its first-ever global branding campaign, Lenovo selected Saatchi & Saatchi's concept: "For Those Who Do." The slogan brings to mind Nike's "Just Do It." Just as Nike emphasized what athletes could do in its shoes, Roman says, Lenovo is spotlighting how people use its computers--"do machines," in the campaign's parlance. When we meet in Lenovo's North Carolina office in July, Roman is typically blunt. "Lenovo hasn't been a marketing company," he says. "Its heritage is as a production and distribution company." He pulls out his laptop and plays a few new TV ads for me. One is shot from the herky-jerky perspective of a dirt-bike rider who has strapped a Lenovo laptop to his handlebars. Roman says he's targeting young creatives with a voracious appetite for the latest technology; irreverence is a key ingredient. One slogan in the campaign's social-media push--but not on TV--is "Get off your mental ass." Some employees in Raleigh have taken to wearing T-shirts adorned with the phrase. "I personally don't like it," Roman says. But he knows he's not the intended audience. Plus, he notes, "good marketing tends to be quite divisive."

To engage consumers, Lenovo is taking other creative risks as well. For the "Do" launch, Roman's team turned a Japanese train terminal into what looks like a giant Lenovo laptop, with commuters entering and exiting across the image of a keyboard. In Israel, it wrapped a building on a busy thoroughfare with a Lenovo ad. In Indonesia, its billboard was a Lenovo-branded climbing wall that "doers" could scale. In Mexico, it created an online series profiling "doers."

At this year's Fashion's Night Out during New York Fashion Week, Lenovo hosted a computer lounge at Saks Fifth Avenue. Sandwiched between Tory Burch's wares and Elie Tahari's was Lenovo's IdeaPad U300, its debut "ultra-book," a new category of superlight, superthin laptops. It's the company's most stylish machine yet, and it's designed to appeal to women. The exterior is muted orange, its texture soft to the touch, like leather. Closed, the laptop looks like a book.

Lenovo has even launched a pilot program at the London department store Harrods. "We know women influence around 80% of consumer electronics purchases," says Lenovo marketing manager Tracey Trachta. So far, Harrods sales are ahead of projections. "You have a different mentality in a department store," says Trachta. "There's more of a chance for an emotional connection with the brand."

Some people do have a connection with the ThinkPad, the best-selling laptop of all time. But most don't identify it with Lenovo. "I'm still surprised to be in a meeting where I ask somebody what they have, and they say, 'I have an IBM laptop,'" says analyst Enderle. Last March, before the "Do" campaign, Lenovo ranked 10th among PC brands that U.S. consumers were considering. By July, it was 7th. Still, says Roman, awareness doesn't translate into sales until you crack the top three. Which is his target.

Ironically, the one country where "For Those Who Do" doesn't translate is China. "'Do' is actually looked at as the opposite of planning and thinking," Roman says. "It's negative. 'Do' is the manual labor." That inconvenient snag didn't stop the campaign from rolling out everywhere but China. There, the brand needs no introduction, and the "Do" campaign is nowhere to be seen. Lenovo has stuck with the Chinese phrase Lian Xiang, which conveys the message it always has: roughly translated, "imagination."

On weekdays in Yi County, 85 miles southwest of Beijing in Hebei Province, kids drop by the Lenovo store after school to watch Disney shows on a PC. At night, families gather on the sidewalk outside the store to watch a movie on a monitor that Lenovo mandates for just such community activities. Last night's feature: Kung Fu Panda. "They bring their own chairs," store owner Li Yingchao tells me. "Movies cost 40 or 50 RMB [$6 to $7] here, so this is better. It's free."

Yi is no Beijing. It has about 550,000 residents--more than Cleveland but in Lenovo's lowest tier in China. The company's store here has a gleaming white marble floor and an assortment of laptops and desktops. One wall displays Lenovo's history, emphasizing its Chinese lineage. The storefront is the nicest in a dusty commercial district; goods spill onto the sidewalk from nearby shops, and at the corner, old people huddle around a carboard box, playing cards. Here, the name Lenovo means something--many things, including progress and pride.

When I first met Yang, he told me: "You should visit a very small city. Apple, they said they want to challenge us, but it is only in first-tier or second-tier cities." Heh-heh. "You cannot find an Apple store in a small city or town. You cannot find a Dell or HP. But when you go to rural areas, you can find Lenovo everywhere."

So after Yi, I go 20 miles farther, past fields of corn and the occasional herd of roadside sheep, to Da Longhua (population: 12,000). The only apples in this village are sold at the local market, which pops up at a crossroads every five days. Lenovo advertises with a character painted on the concrete wall of a junkyard and has a shop on the side of a two-lane highway. None of the five PCs on the shelves has a price tag. Gao Hua, who runs the shop, says one isn't necessary. His customers all know and trust him. They buy their food at the crossroads market, and they buy their computers from him. The week I visited, Gao had sold all-in-one desktops to three families on market day. "They sit down and ask, 'What do you suggest?'" Gao says. "Five minutes, it sells."

The rural market holds huge growth opportunities for Lenovo, which already posts annual China revenue north of $10 billion. More than half of China's 1.3 billion residents live outside the cities, and the country's rapid economic growth is gradually reaching them--as is broadband access. The majority of Lenovo's Chinese outlets are in rural areas, poised to sell computers to the millions who have never owned them. Today it's their first PC, tomorrow their first tablet or smartphone. And Lenovo expects this pattern will repeat itself in other emerging markets; China is a test lab where it can try out tactics and strategies before rolling them out in other countries including India, where it has more than 700 stores. The rural stores offer Lenovo's most affordable desktops. Priced at less than $500, they come preloaded with applications to help farmers price their crops and with features such as one-button instant messaging to simplify tasks for first-time computer users.

One of the more popular Lenovo products in rural China is the wedding computer. Rural families will often pool their money to buy a bride and groom their first PC. The wedding computer comes in red, which Chinese consider to be the luckiest color.

Gao delivers many of these PCs in his silver Nissan SUV, and as he bounces down the road, the big red box holding the wedding computer seems almost to jump with joy. It's emblazoned with a big red Chinese character: xi, which means "double happiness." The word couldn't be more appropriate, although it's hard to know who will be happier--the couple that receives that PC or Lenovo, which made and sold it.

A version of this article appears in the December 2011/January 2012 issue of Fast Company.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Macau gambling revenues is about to surpass all of Nevada.

Gaming in Macau still going gangbusters


By Howard Stutz
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

Posted: Nov. 25, 2011 | 4:39 p.m.


Any rumors that Macau's gaming market was slowing were put to rest this week.

The government's secretary for the economy and finance projected the Chinese gaming enclave could provide the special administrative region roughly $10.6 billion in taxes in 2012.

If the figure holds, it would exceed what the entire Nevada casino industry collected in just gaming revenues alone during 2010. The calendar year gaming revenues were $10.4 billion. Fiscal year 2010 gaming taxes collected by Nevada were $631 million.

However, analysts believe the Macau estimates for 2012 could be viewed as conservative.

Several Wall Street researchers who visited Macau recently said local casino operators and government officials rarely go out on a limb with growth projections.

"We detected a whiff of caution during our trip given the state of the global economy, particularly in Europe, and the potential for slowing Chinese gross domestic product growth," Credit Suisse gaming analyst Joel Simkins told investors. "We believe business in Macau largely remains on trend."

In 2010, Macau produced $23.5 billion in gaming revenues, more than five times the total on the Strip.

Through October, gaming revenues from Macau's 34 casinos have increased 45 percent over the same 10 months of 2010.

"We did not uncover any earth-shattering evidence of a slowdown in Macau," Janney Montgomery Scott gaming analyst Brian McGill wrote in a research note. "We do find it disconcerting that it seems virtually everyone is on the same side of the fence. The argument seems to center around the fact that Macau did so well during a period of fiscal tightening in China, just think of the potential when China reverses to loosen monetary policy."

The Macau government based its 2012 tax projections on the region's gaming market producing an average of 240 billion patacas, or $29.9 billion in gaming revenues. The figures take into account the opening of Sands Cotai Central, a Las Vegas Sands Corp. development that includes multiple hotel-casinos and 5,800 rooms.

The opening of Sands Cotai Central could be Macau's last casino opening until 2015.

"In our view, growth at or exceeding 20 percent in 2012 is not unreasonable," Simkins said.

Three Nevada-based companies are licensed to operate in Macau.

Las Vegas Sands operates three resorts in Macau -- The Venetian Macau, Sands Macau and the Four Seasons Macau. Wynn Resorts Ltd. operates Wynn Macau and Encore. MGM Resorts International runs the MGM Grand Macau.

Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts both plan to build hotel-casinos on Macau's Cotai Strip region.

JP Morgan gaming analyst Joe Greff said management teams in Macau told him the market showed no signs of slowing trends or cracks in demand, despite recent negative headlines out of mainland China.

"The theme was relatively consistent across all of our meetings," Greff said. "Gross gaming revenue growth continues to remain robust driven by strength in both the mass market and VIP gaming segments."

McGill said the only negative issue on the horizon was a potential smoking ban in 2013. Many Macau casinos have nonsmoking areas, but they were the least busy locations on the gaming floors.

"We came away confident in the long-term outlook for Macau," McGill said. "However, our view is that with the market at $33 billion and significant global economic uncertainty, it could be a more volatile ride higher than many expect right now."

Most analysts favor Las Vegas Sands because of its additional operations in Singapore. The company's Marina Bay Sands is one of just two casinos in the island nation.

"We were more positive about Singapore as the market is still in its infancy, whereas Macau is slightly more advanced," Simkins said.

Other areas of Asia continue to pop up for casino development potential, including Vietnam and Japan. MGM Resorts and Pinnacle Entertainment are involved in a resort project in Vietnam.

Greff said Las Vegas Sands officials believe potential legislation to legalize casinos in Japan could move forward by year's end.

"At this point, we believe Japan gaming is a matter of when and not if," Greff said. "Las Vegas Sands will be a front-runner for one of the licenses given its proven model in Singapore and Macau, as well as its solid balance sheet."
 
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