Chinese Economics Thread

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
On the issue of automation in China and elsewhere in the world. We have to take into consideration that the workforce in the coming decades will decrease as the population ages in North America, Europe and East Asia. Worker shortage may become a issue and in order to take care of the growing numbers of old you have to produce more with fewer people. Otherwise you could end up with massive inflation as production goes down because of labour shortage. Automation can potentially prevent a collapse of our living standards as the population ages. But you will need more skills to run a economy like that. That means alot of STEM students. Who can run and develop the systems of the future.
The Indians will just come in and take the hitech jobs in the US.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
There are huge wage disparities in China. Sector to sector. Region to region.
I think eventually the minimum wage will increase.

With regards to HSR network construction. I think even if China totally stopped HSR construction right now they would be ok.
The proposed plan to connect all cities with at least 5 million people is also ok.
Eventually construction will stop. But we are still far from hitting the point where that will happen.
Idiots living in suburbia sprawl who drive to the airport with the massive energy waste that entails cannot understand it.

Using maglev to connect all their major cities is going to be the big next step up after conventional rail I think.
It will basically kill the airline industry for internal flying except for really remote places.
This will enable vast movements of people across wide regions and increase circulation. Turbo-boosting the economy.

If they are decreasing Metro construction in China, now that I think is a problem.
China is still vastly underserved by Metro facilities. The Metro systems also need to be rationalized.
China needs to increase commonality in Metro with standards both in track and rolling stock like they did with HSR.
This will drive down both costs and maintenance. This is the next big thing I think.

China's current efforts done by Xi's government with getting people outside the countryside into mid sized cities is going to make major changes to the fabric of Chinese society. It will enable the mechanization of farming and there will likely be huge increases not only in farming output but also in farming productivity. The government needs to support factory farms including vertical farming.

After transport China needs to improve is energy sector. The investments into the natural gas and oil pipelines are only the start.
Can you imagine that only now is China connecting Beijing and Shanghai with natural gas pipes? Huge investment which will take over a decade. This will enable increased efficiency in moving energy supplies from one place to another. It will enable China to move away from dirty coal in urban centers.

The next big thing in energy, I think, will be the high voltage electric interconnect. Right now China is making a huge investment in these kinds of facilities, dwarfing the rest of the world. If you look at it these grids basically connect the country from the coast to the country.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
There are huge wage disparities in China. Sector to sector. Region to region.
I think eventually the minimum wage will increase.

With regards to HSR network construction. I think even if China totally stopped HSR construction right now they would be ok.
The proposed plan to connect all cities with at least 5 million people is also ok.
Eventually construction will stop. But we are still far from hitting the point where that will happen.
Idiots living in suburbia sprawl who drive to the airport with the massive energy waste that entails cannot understand it.

Using maglev to connect all their major cities is going to be the big next step up after conventional rail I think.
It will basically kill the airline industry for internal flying except for really remote places.
This will enable vast movements of people across wide regions and increase circulation. Turbo-boosting the economy.

If they are decreasing Metro construction in China, now that I think is a problem.
China is still vastly underserved by Metro facilities. The Metro systems also need to be rationalized.
China needs to increase commonality in Metro with standards both in track and rolling stock like they did with HSR.
This will drive down both costs and maintenance. This is the next big thing I think.

China's current efforts done by Xi's government with getting people outside the countryside into mid sized cities is going to make major changes to the fabric of Chinese society. It will enable the mechanization of farming and there will likely be huge increases not only in farming output but also in farming productivity.

After transport China needs to improve is energy sector. The investments into the natural gas and oil pipelines are only the start.
Can you imagine that only now is China connecting Beijing and Shanghai with natural gas pipes? Huge investment which will take over a decade. This will enable increased efficiency in moving energy supplies from one place to another. It will enable China to move away from coal in urban centers.

The next big thing in energy, I think, will be the high voltage electric interconnect. Right now China is making a huge investment in these kinds of facilities, dwarfing the rest of the world. If you look at it these grids basically connect the country from the coast to the country.
I thought China was merely being cautious and prudent when it made aware its decision to support only profitable / self sustaining HSR lines.

Extending the same thought to Metro construction and everything else seems rational and natural. What if China, in its long term planning or analysis found that further Metro expansions aren't going to be a great boost like before?

And Maglevs are a cash drain. I don't expect them to be laid down and expanded like the HSR. There are likely to be two or three lines just for enhancing the identities of certain city clusters or Zones.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is unsustainable and is literally the thesis behind Involution. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan went down this route of not explicitly forcing wages or job benefits up and basically all their young people either left the country or they decided to drop out of society. Also, cratering birth rates.

We are already seeing the leading edges of this phenomenon with the rise of 内卷 as an intellectual concept and the rise of Chinese neets, return to agriculture advocates, etc.

There are intense and negative trickle down social effects that unglue society itself from thinking zero-sum hyper competition is sufficient to force people to work. If I were a mainland worker not on the high end of the scale, I'd be insanely worried if I knew someone who thought like you was in a PRC ministry level position.

I said high consumer consumption was not a requirement for a society to get to high-income status.

That is not the same as saying consumer consumption is not relevant.

I agree that South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have problems due to low wages and that a high minimum would help solve many of these issues.

I already did a post a few week's ago that based on the experiences of the UK, France and Germany - a minimum wage of $13-$15 per hour should be feasible for the USA.

The same argument applies to South Korea, Taiwan and Japan


Wrong on the first bolded point. Not everyone can enter a higher value add industry and you need to have wages for lower skill jobs like janitorial staff wages track with cost of living increases.
I think it is obvious that there aren't enough high-value add jobs for everyone, nor is everyone suited to such jobs.

But it is these sorts of jobs and industries which produce the surplus wealth required if you want to redistribute.
And a high minimum wage is one of the methods to do this.

Additionally, while R&D may be a necessary pre-requisite for a high income society, it is not a sufficient replacement for wage increases.

I think you misunderstand the causality.

High levels of R&D spending always results in a high-income society. That is what the real-life data shows.

But a high-income society doesn't have to be based on R&D.
They can be based on natural resources, as you mentioned previously.

My position is largely in line with the CPC on this one and if you want to argue that the Chinese government is also stupid to put so much emphasis on consumer demand (i.e. household income) then be my guest.

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A few weeks ago, we already had a discussion which looked at how in the USA, all the economic gains for the past 20+ years had accrued to the top whilst wages for the average worker had been stagnant for decades.

For janitorial staff in the US, I would support an eventual minimum wage of $15 per hour (2000+ USD per month), like we already see in Western Europe. In the case of China, the question is how fast minimum wages should increase, which is a difficult call.

And where did I say the Chinese government is stupid for focusing on consumption?

My point is that technology upgrading comes first.
Then there's the spare resources for higher consumption by lower income earners.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I thought China was merely being cautious and prudent when it made aware its decision to support only profitable / self sustaining HSR lines.

Extending the same thought to Metro construction and everything else seems rational and natural. What if China, in its long term planning or analysis found that further Metro expansions aren't going to be a great boost like before?

And Maglevs are a cash drain. I don't expect them to be laid down and expanded like the HSR. There are likely to be two or three lines just for enhancing the identities of certain city clusters or Zones.

Yes I looked at a map and the line that was cancelled, according to that article, already has another 350 kph rail line right next to it.

I disagree with the Metro construction stop because I think China is underserved in this regard. For example in the Soviet Union the threshold for building a Metro system was for a city to have 1 million people. How many of those cities in China have Metros?

The maglev would only be built connecting major cities over 10 million people.
 
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