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Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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I didn't say anything about Russia holding US bonds. I said the US Financial institutions holding Russian sovereign bonds (attractive yield). These institutions are now banned from buying Russia's debt.
It has, but there are still plenty of sanctions thats can be applied to damage Russia even more.
I think you have a point here, but I still think that Russia would need to raise cash. (Who knows what the US and the EU will do to force Russia to spend more money)
Agreed that China will cover Russia's back. However it will still require something. Maybe help for Taiwan or allow more Chinese influence in Central Asia.
There is no way that Xi will not help Putin. But there is also no way that Russia will get free help. Maybe very generous help but China will require some geopolitical help somewhere.
If China doesn't request anything in return then I would truly believe that China and Russia are very very close to an alliance and they have an unprecedented trust between them, we will see
Maybe it doesn't, maybe it does, but Biden might also try to force Russia's hand. If they start talking about accepting Ukraine into NATO then Russia would have to invade. There is also the water crisis in Crimea. Complex stuff
I think this is the true US goal. They want to bait Russia into attacking Ukraine, so that the US can force Germany to stop the pipeline and thus divide Russia and Germany.
Except Russia has really low debt. Their government budget actually runs a surplus.
Thats true. This will only affect them if they go to war with Ukraine and the US and EU start freezing Russian assets in their countries. Or if the US bleeds Russia in Ukraine.
In those cases Russia would need to raise money fast. However it still a small problem.because they have a lot of reserves
The only thing is how hard the sanctions would be if Russia attacked Ukraine
But Russia doesn't really have to use foreign currencies to finance their military adventures, they make their own stuff and have made their economy autarkic. Its pretty much sanction proof and in GDP PPP Russian economy is just below that of Germany. That is with the neo liberal shock therapy they had to recover from. The Russian also has maneuvered the economic siege fare from the west just fine after 2014.
But the military expenditure do bite into overall development of Russian infrastructure, the top of their military expenditure was in 2016 and has dropped since then. But time will tell don't think Russia will suffer much from western sanctions, they are also fully prepared if they get banned from the SWIFT system. I think Russia is like 5 years further along with decoupling from western finance then china.
Maybe if China will sanction Russia, Russia might be in economic trouble. But then again China has to spend a lot of resources to secure their long northern border. Maybe so much that challenging the US in the south China sea becomes impossible. If Russia, China and Iran work together they can make the US overspend and overstretch the US military expenditure.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Well good news China shale gas finally taking off
Editor OilPrice.com
Sat, April 17, 2021, 10:00 AM
During the first two months of 2021, the Chinese oil and gas giant Sinopec managed to bring 28 new shale gas wells on stream in the country. The company also announced that the shale gas production from its major Fuling field compared to last year. And despite the recent collapse in oil and gas prices, as well as the uncertainty brought by the Covid-19 pandemic, Sinopec remains optimistic on the future of shale gas. Its latest achievement was the completion of the first phase of a , adding 1 billion cubic meters of shale capacity.
This series of breakthroughs reveal a more global trend: a possible revolution in the Chinese shale gas sector. But in a country traditionally relying on conventional gas resources, how realistic is this “shale boom”?
A “coal to shale gas” switch?
The share of natural gas in China’s total energy consumption reached a modest 8% in 2019. However, this figure is expected to climb as a result of China’s strategy to move away from coal, resulting in rising industrial and residential gas consumption. One of the drivers of the rise in gas production is likely to be shale gas, which represented 6% of total gas production in the country in 2019.
Inspired by the fracking boom of the 2000s in the United States, China is eager to reproduce a similar trend domestically. Its proven and are the world’s largest shale gas reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Being the second country in the world to achieve shale gas commercialization, China expects its shale gas production to grow in the coming years, and already plans a 34 billion cubic meters output in 2021. To do so, it will rely on its main asset: the Sichuan basin, where it has bet on doubling shale gas production through 2025.(cont)
China’s Shale Gas Industry Is Finally Taking Off
Editor OilPrice.com
Sat, April 17, 2021, 10:00 AM
During the first two months of 2021, the Chinese oil and gas giant Sinopec managed to bring 28 new shale gas wells on stream in the country. The company also announced that the shale gas production from its major Fuling field compared to last year. And despite the recent collapse in oil and gas prices, as well as the uncertainty brought by the Covid-19 pandemic, Sinopec remains optimistic on the future of shale gas. Its latest achievement was the completion of the first phase of a , adding 1 billion cubic meters of shale capacity.
This series of breakthroughs reveal a more global trend: a possible revolution in the Chinese shale gas sector. But in a country traditionally relying on conventional gas resources, how realistic is this “shale boom”?
A “coal to shale gas” switch?
The share of natural gas in China’s total energy consumption reached a modest 8% in 2019. However, this figure is expected to climb as a result of China’s strategy to move away from coal, resulting in rising industrial and residential gas consumption. One of the drivers of the rise in gas production is likely to be shale gas, which represented 6% of total gas production in the country in 2019.
Inspired by the fracking boom of the 2000s in the United States, China is eager to reproduce a similar trend domestically. Its proven and are the world’s largest shale gas reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Being the second country in the world to achieve shale gas commercialization, China expects its shale gas production to grow in the coming years, and already plans a 34 billion cubic meters output in 2021. To do so, it will rely on its main asset: the Sichuan basin, where it has bet on doubling shale gas production through 2025.(cont)
Well I think it is good that China got access to shale oil and gas. This gives them a buffer against oil shocks.
But it is a terrible waste of capital. Shale oil and gas are not economically net positive. They basically destroy enormous amounts of capital to provide some oil and gas at way above market price.
But it is a terrible waste of capital. Shale oil and gas are not economically net positive. They basically destroy enormous amounts of capital to provide some oil and gas at way above market price.
Shale gas is the best thing. China severely lacks energy security. Having domestic gas available is huge!
I read somewhere that most of China's gas and oil from fracking is in a earthquake area. While fracking might induce more earthquakes it also requires an intense amount of water.
Why is that?