Fricking knew it. My silly mistake. I was about to say I must be using 2019 #s.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Fricking knew it. My silly mistake. I was about to say I must be using 2019 #s.
Ok so the IMF October edition puts the estimate for 2020 at 102,491.039 billion (102.49 trillion) yuan
At 6.90 that equals $14.853 trillion so you are right a little under $15 trillion for mainland China.
Some people estimate <6.40 average dollar-yuan rate for 2021. If we assume 6.40 to be true and it doesn't seem all that unlikely, and we tack on 2% inflation and 8% GDP growth like you did then China at $17,562.54 billion ($17.56 trillion) will add almost $2.7 trillion to its GDP this year.
I don't even think these are optimistic. They should be seen as a median estimate!
China is likely to add more to its GDP than the entire economic existence of UK or France. Won't even count India since there seems to be pretty widespread accusations from international orgs of fraud. Would not be surprised if their GDP is closer to Italy than to UK.
At 6.90 that equals $14.853 trillion so you are right a little under $15 trillion for mainland China.
Some people estimate <6.40 average dollar-yuan rate for 2021. If we assume 6.40 to be true and it doesn't seem all that unlikely, and we tack on 2% inflation and 8% GDP growth like you did then China at $17,562.54 billion ($17.56 trillion) will add almost $2.7 trillion to its GDP this year.
I don't even think these are optimistic. They should be seen as a median estimate!
China is likely to add more to its GDP than the entire economic existence of UK or France. Won't even count India since there seems to be pretty widespread accusations from international orgs of fraud. Would not be surprised if their GDP is closer to Italy than to UK.
Skywatcher
Captain
The board of directors at Goldman Sachs and the other big Wall Street banks/hedge funds made some phone calls.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Is it a rumour or any links?
Skywatcher
Captain
A hunch on my part.
I think it's actually unconstitutional to prevent Americans from investing their money. Not like they care about the constitution...
There was unconfirmed rumor that China would retaliate the de-listing of the three Chinese telecom companies by requiring US companies entering China to declare their associations with US military.
bajingan
Senior Member
More saltiness than the dead sea lol
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The old India growth story is back! I love this little gem that seems to be legislated by law to pop up in these 'China is weak' pieces.
Also, I know Western authors don't even know how to debate anymore (for some reason) but his entire argument literally rests on only one point he made that is relevant to the title!
The fact that China has never actually tried to economically coerced a country to such an extent that it has done serious economic damage. That's it. This is the only point he makes in support of his stupid title. So basically, not. one. single. iota. of information about how China is "weaker than it looks".
He doesn't even make the claim that China TRIED to economically coerce a country but failed. No. He says China doesn't even try to despite saying it will. So by the same stupid token, America's military must be weaker than it looks because it keeps threatening Iran, North Korea, China et al. but never doing shit.