Not really, last year's GDP will be converted to USD using the average yuan/dollar exchange rate of last year, which is about 6.89. So the $GDP will be just udner $15 trillion. But this year's $GDP will get a huge bump from the appreciation of the yuan in the latter part of last year, assuming the same exchange trend and GDP growth rate of 8-9%, as most economists expect.
Chinese Economics Thread
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Not really, last year's GDP will be converted to USD using the average yuan/dollar exchange rate of last year, which is about 6.89. So the $GDP will be just udner $15 trillion. But this year's $GDP will get a huge bump from the appreciation of the yuan in the latter part of last year, assuming the same exchange trend and GDP growth rate of 8-9%, as most economists expect.
Wall Street Steps Up Hiring in China, With Analysts in Demand
- China research analyst tally nears 3,500, bucking global drop
- Broker consolidation seen damping demand in years ahead
Registered analysts climbed 8% to 3,475 last year, according to the Securities Association of China. By comparison, the combined equities research tally at 12 major banks worldwide shrank by 12% in the first half, data from consultant Crisil Coalition show.
China has for years been bucking a global trend of cutbacks among Wall Street banks, who have been weighed down by tougher regulations. The country’s rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and expanding capital markets have fed demand for more sell-side analysts on everything from equities to fixed-income and commodities. Its decision to allow foreign banks to take full control of brokerages last year added to the momentum.
@Gatekeeper let's start afresh as 22 year olds
Yes, really.
If the size of the Chinese economy is X number of Yuan, and the RMB exchange rate at the end of the year is Y, then the size of the Chinese economy at the end of the year 2020 is that X times Y.
If that means at the current income level and today's exchange rate, the Chinese economy could be 80% of the US economy, I do not know, I never check.
But if next year, meaning this year, China grows at 8%-9% and there is another 10% appreciation to the Yuan, then China and America would be relatively the same size in dollar terms.
In4ser
Junior Member
IMO S. Korea is a lost cause because has fallen into the consumer debt model of growth that the US itself has been trapped in. Credit Card debt makes up for around 40% of the country's GDP, compared with 18% in the United States. That's why S. Korea has the highest household debt ratio in Asia and it is facing demographic decline worse than China or the US. And most of the household consumption is in things that don't really provide real value or increase productivity (i.e. entertainment and fashion).
The problem with modern Korea is social conformity. They are overly concerned with fitting in and being cool that it comes at the price of practicality. This is a problem because the upkeep costs for appearances skyrocket when you try to "Keep up with the Joneses" because there's always a new trend or must-have item around the corner. For Koreans, they must have their kids have to go to private school, get plastic surgery, wear fashionable clothes, and hold a Starbucks coffee in hand. Even if you aren't overly concerned with fitting, you will get ostracized by everyone else if you don't and so it isn't so much a choice but a necessity in both private AND professional life.
K-Pop and K-Dramas might be good for soft power but it also promotes a lot of shallowness and insecurity that plagues Korea (which is more so there than in China, Taiwan or Japan).
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Again, the convention is to use average exchange rate, not year-end rate. Nobody uses year-end exchange rate.
This year, assuming the average exchange rate is 6.4, then the yuan appreciation will be (6.89 - 6.4) / 6.89 = 7.1%. If we further assume inflation rate is 2%, then the nominal GDP growth rate will be approximately (1+8%)*(1+7.1%)*(1+2%) - 1 = 18%!
If we use your estimate of 2020 GDP of 103 trillion yuan, which is $14.95 (=103/6.89), then this year's nominal GDP will be $17.64 trillion.
Looking at the way the dollar is moving and a Biden presidency, this prediction might happen within his 1st term:
Might even collapse faster depending on how he wants to proceed with the trade war n sanctions.
Forefingers don't have "避风头" in their vocabularies.
Great video!! Even better that it’s coming from a Japanese journalist
D
Deleted member 15887
Guest
I must say, 2020 was the worst year for 反贼 and Chinese liberals in recent memory. Not only did their hopes of China/CPC collapsing get dashed, China emerged stronger than ever from the pandemic, its rise vis-a-vis the US accelerated by 5-6 years, and Xi and the Communist Party's rule more popular than ever!
Remember people, there are two types of exchange rate regimes.
Floating and fixed.
The Chinese Communist Party still tries to fix the value of the RMB, but allows a daily narrow trading band.
If that is what the price of the RMB the government wants, that is the price the CCP will have.