Chinese Economics Thread

[caudaceus]

Biden's nest play is to get a "great alliance of democracies" to resist China...which is gonna be hard when other fellow democracies are too busy eating up the lunch of democracies which resist China- as we've seen with US and EU companies eating Australia's lunch in the China market.

I have seen this called a lot. But, dont you think that democracies have their own interest and they might not suitable with each other ?

 

[AndrewS]

There was unconfirmed rumor that China would retaliate the de-listing of the three Chinese telecom companies by requiring US companies entering China to declare their associations with US military.

Perhaps it would have been better to let the NYSE delist the Chinese telecoms companies.

Then quietly require US companies to declare their associations with the US military?

You pretty much would have every large US company saying they were part of the military-industrial complex.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Hi bajingan,

I think the West aside from Covid is overflowing with Kidney Disease with all these saltiness....LOL.

We can harvest a few kidneys from Falungong people to transplant into Westerners with kidney problems

 

[Deleted member 15887]

Yea and wasn't China's 2020 GDP finalized at 98.65 trillion yuan?

Also not sure where @cbl21 is getting over $30 trillion PPP from. China GDP PPP was $23.39 trillion in 2019 and estimated at $24.16 trillion in 2020. Where are you getting the extra ~$6 trillion from? That's a huge difference.

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Discrepancy in data depends on how you define the PPP conversion rate. Some orgs like the World Bank think its much more than 3.5, other orgs think its still 3.5. With the latter, its close to $30 trillion USD.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

Ok so the IMF October edition puts the estimate for 2020 at 102,491.039 billion (102.49 trillion) yuan

At 6.90 that equals $14.853 trillion so you are right a little under $15 trillion for mainland China.

Some people estimate <6.40 average dollar-yuan rate for 2021. If we assume 6.40 to be true and it doesn't seem all that unlikely, and we tack on 2% inflation and 8% GDP growth like you did then China at $17,562.54 billion ($17.56 trillion) will add almost $2.7 trillion to its GDP this year.

I don't even think these are optimistic. They should be seen as a median estimate!

China is likely to add more to its GDP than the entire economic existence of UK or France. Won't even count India since there seems to be pretty widespread accusations from international orgs of fraud. Would not be surprised if their GDP is closer to Italy than to UK.

IMF's data was forecasted earlier probably in September, finalized and released in October, so its probably out of date now because they probably didn't forsee the 4th-quarter boom

 

[caudaceus]

Lots of interesting discussions about Chinese GDP adjusted to USD. But, realistically what would happen the moment China passed US GDP?
I bet things life more or less are same with some Twitter rants or some congress members grandstanding by reducing subsidy / aid / loan to China. That's it.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

Lots of interesting discussions about Chinese GDP adjusted to USD. But, realistically what would happen the moment China passed US GDP?
I bet things life more or less are same with some Twitter rants or some congress members grandstanding by reducing subsidy / aid / loan to China. That's it.

For one, it makes it much harder for America to try to "form coalitions" and act as top dog when they have a smaller economy than China. Because for most countries, economic interests almost always come first.

 

[sinophilia]

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Discrepancy in data depends on how you define the PPP conversion rate. Some orgs like the World Bank think its much more than 3.5, other orgs think its still 3.5. With the latter, its close to $30 trillion USD.

It seems when you compare China’s PPP to nominal GDP it’s more like 1.7 no?

I think I may be misunderstanding but >3.5 would imply China’s PPP GDP is about $45 trillion already and will grow by >$15 trillion this year to >$60 trillion right?

I don’t think that’s right! I’ve seen people argue that IMF/World Bank are wrong at putting it at 1.7 and the # should be 2.0 or even >2.0

 

[Deleted member 15887]

It seems when you compare China’s PPP to nominal GDP it’s more like 1.7 no?

I think I may be misunderstanding but >3.5 would imply China’s PPP GDP is about $45 trillion already and will grow by >$15 trillion this year to >$60 trillion right?

I don’t think that’s right! I’ve seen people argue that IMF/World Bank are wrong at putting it at 1.7 and the # should be 2.0 or even >2.0

I meant 3.5 as in the PPP conversion rate between the RMB and the USD (i.e., ￥3.5 RMB= $1 USD). You then would divide ￥103 trillion RMB by 3.5 to obtain your PPP GDP of ~$30 trillion USD.

 

[sinophilia]

I meant 3.5 as in the PPP conversion rate between the RMB and the USD (i.e., ￥3.5 RMB= $1 USD). You then would divide ￥103 trillion RMB by 3.5 to obtain your PPP GDP of ~$30 trillion USD.

Ah yes that’s fair. That would provide a 2.0 as I was saying.

Yea I think it’s somewhere between 1.7 as stated by IMF/WB and 2.0 but I’ve seen people argue it may be higher.

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