Chinese Economics Thread

[KYli]

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This article mentions that there is electrical shortages in China due to lack of coal
Is there any truth to this report or this is just anglo propaganda?

Not much, Australia only represented 2% of China coal consumption. 60% of that goes to steel mills. It is absurd to think a mere less than 1% supply couldn't be offset by domestic supply. Brutal winter in some part of China, power plants are offline for maintenance, emission target in zhejiang, and a surge of exports demand for some exports oriented area are cited as the reasons why electrical shortages in a few provinces.

That's why I argue against relying solely on wind, solar, and nuclear. Until power storage can be built cheaply and efficiently, coal, gas, and oil power plants are needed to meet a demand surge like hot summer or brutal winter.

 

[Kaeshmiri]

If Biden does not reverse the entity list, then US is essentially trying to deny Chinese semiconductor technology.

That’s like an oil blockade.

Will have to go into war mode for the next 10 years. Full mobilization into the task like H bomb development

Biden wont reverse a single thing. He already faces allegation of being a Chinese mole with the whole Hunter Biden thing. Infact i expect him to be more tough on China to shed off this image that's being projected.

I expect the chip ban to soon cover every Chinese company and we may well see US sanctions entering the financial sphere including China being cut off from SWIFT.

Things will only go downhill from here and War will be imminent.

 

[gadgetcool5]

If Biden does not reverse the entity list, then US is essentially trying to deny Chinese semiconductor technology.

That’s like an oil blockade.

Will have to go into war mode for the next 10 years. Full mobilization into the task like H bomb development

The difference is that oil exists in a lot of places, like Siberia, the Middle East, Indonesia, Venezuela, etc. etc.

Whereas semiconductors manufacturing equipment (produced by APM, Lam, KLA-Tencor, Cymer, Cadence, and Synposys) only exists on the mainland US and Netherlands. China is not going to get that by conquest. There are no shortcuts. The only valuable piece of the semiconductor supply chain is in Taiwan. IMO if China wants Taiwan it should use the four year window 2020-24 while Biden is in office to go for it. After that, it will be too late. IMO though it's pointless as TW people's hearts and minds must be won in the long run and that will never happen. Might as well offer an EU-style deal to Taiwan instead.

 

[manqiangrexue]

The difference is that oil exists in a lot of places, like Siberia, the Middle East, Indonesia, Venezuela, etc. etc.

Whereas semiconductors manufacturing equipment (produced by APM, Lam, KLA-Tencor, Cymer, Cadence, and Synposys) only exists on the mainland US and Netherlands. China is not going to get that by conquest. There are no shortcuts. The only valuable piece of the semiconductor supply chain is in Taiwan.

TSMC is overrated. It's all about EUVL; TSMC can't do anything without being provided with lithographs. Liang has said that the design all the way down to 3nm is finished for SMIC, just waiting for SMEE. Now TSMC's Jiang is with SMIC too. TSMC is no big deal.

IMO if China wants Taiwan it should use the four year window 2020-24 while Biden is in office to go for it. After that, it will be too late.

There is absolutely no reason that it would be too late. The longer it is dragged on, the stronger China gets both absolutely and in relation to the US.

IMO though it's pointless as TW people's hearts and minds must be won in the long run and that will never happen.

China has done many things that the West thought it could never do; China doesn't know the meaning of never and neither do you, but in opposite ways LOL.

Might as well offer an EU-style deal to Taiwan instead.

Not surprising from someone whose solution to every problem is to avoid conflict and offer concession. Every true warm-blooded Chinese person knows it's WWIII and hell on earth before the ROC is allowed independence. Spineless hanjians make other suggestions.

 

[gadgetcool5]

There is absolutely no reason that it would be too late. The longer it is dragged on, the stronger China gets both absolutely and in relation to the US.

If a Republican is in office there will be US intervention for sure. Biden would probably realize WW3 is a bad idea and focus the US on shoring up Japan and South Korea. He's China's best chance by far.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If a Republican is in office there will be US intervention for sure. Biden would probably realize WW3 is a bad idea and focus the US on shoring up Japan and South Korea. He's China's best chance by far.

China's best chance is in China's own abilities, not in a weak foreign leader. Democrat or Republican, they will listen when America's generals convene and tell them they cannot win this fight. If there is physical conflict over the ROC, China will win because it can, not because it's allowed to.

PS. You have a terrible handle on American politics. Democrats and Republicans trade places all the time and most US presidents are 2-term. You're talking like you think that Biden will surely be a one-term president and the last democrat in the American presidency.

 

[gadgetcool5]

China's best chance is in China's own abilities, not in a weak foreign leader. Democrat or Republican, they will listen when America's generals convene and tell them they cannot win this fight. If there is physical conflict over the ROC, China will win because it can, not because it's allowed to.

WW3 with the US is a bad idea though. You can't win that due to the US nuclear arsenal.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

No one can win, simply put. Not China, not the US, not the world.

 

[manqiangrexue]

WW3 with the US is a bad idea though. You can't win that due to the US nuclear arsenal.

Save your advice for Steve Bannon's interview. Concession is a worse, unthinkable idea. That's what MAD is, nobody "wins" WWIII, but China has more will than the US ever will to fight over Taiwan... as long as it's not infiltrated by spineless hanjian like yourself. Death before dishonor; America will blink.

 

[j17wang]

DJI is now placed on the Entities List. If sales are ever banned in America, it could be devastating for the company. Are anyone else buying lots of drones besides Americans?

Yes, I am Canadian. I buy DJI drones as well. Actually drones are being brought by lots of people across the world (including Europe). But I think Americans probably buy more of the enterprise ones, although the biggest market for that is still China.