Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

Agree. Getting Taiwan through forced invasion is not what China wants. It doesn’t do China any good to get Taiwan this way.

It's not what China wants but it's way better than letting the ROC declare independence. Quite frankly I don't know where Chinese people will hide our faces if this is allowed to happen. The CCP has done a fantastic job cultivating China's rise and very few things (not even an economic slump) can delegitimize it but allowing Taiwan's independence will do it.

Unfortunately, time is not on China’s side. Younger generation of Taiwanese kids are just as nationalistic and have nothing to do with Mainland China.

Isolation is clearly not working. US is making it harder. We are not closer to reunification. And with each generation, the two “countries” are growing further apart.

But time is on China's side because Chinese force grows with time. If you look in history, there are very very few examples (if any) of 2 entities uniting into a country because of common values or brotherhood but many more examples of forceful conquest (or simply threat of such) to annex land. As long as Chinese power is growing, time is on China's side.

 

[horse]

Agree. Getting Taiwan through forced invasion is not what China wants. It doesn’t do China any good to get Taiwan this way.

Unfortunately, time is not on China’s side. Younger generation of Taiwanese kids are just as nationalistic and have nothing to do with Mainland China.

Isolation is clearly not working. US is making it harder. We are not closer to reunification. And with each generation, the two “countries” are growing further apart.

Kids are kids.

Everyone grows up, and has to face reality one day.

Another thing Lee Kwan Yui said about Taiwan, was that for Taiwan, all roads lead to China.

Taiwan can resist and exhaust itself on that road. Or Taiwan on that road can take full advantage of their position.

Either way, Taiwan will arrive at the same place, further integration with China.

Events of the past few decades seem to have borne this out.

 

[Petrolicious88]

It's not what China wants but it's way better than letting the ROC declare independence. Quite frankly I don't know where Chinese people will hide our faces if this is allowed to happen. The CCP has done a fantastic job cultivating China's rise and very few things (not even an economic slump) can delegitimize it but allowing Taiwan's independence will do it.

But time is on China's side because Chinese force grows with time. If you look in history, there are very very few examples (if any) of 2 entities uniting into a country because of common values or brotherhood but many more examples of forceful conquest (or simply threat of such) to annex land. As long as Chinese power is growing, time is on China's side.

Taiwan is not stupid enough to formally declare independence and risk a Chinese invasion. Why do that when you can just keep the status quo where you are pretty much already independent.

Invasion of Taiwan is not the best way to get Taiwan. And there won’t be an invasion if Taiwan doesn’t formally declare independence.

You are assuming in time China will become so powerful like the US where it can just invade countries like Iraq with impunity. Maybe, maybe not. That remains an assuming until it becomes a reality.

 

[horse]

Case in point ...

The most advanced mainland Chinese semiconductor company is SMIC.

Don't ya get the impression, that the more we read about it, that the more the corporate secrets come out, the more it looks like an entire Taiwanese operation, on the mainland.

Hey, the Taiwanese are Chinese. What is the big deal?

 

[manqiangrexue]

Taiwan is not stupid enough to formally declare independence and risk a Chinese invasion. Why do that when you can just keep the status quo where you are pretty much already independent.

Good, then China can run down the clock on them until Chinese power is unopposable in Asia.

Invasion of Taiwan is not the best way to get Taiwan. And there won’t be an invasion if Taiwan doesn’t formally declare independence.

Not with the current power balance. But when the power balance becomes so skewed in China's favor that it's a joke for any country to say they would intervene, the calculus changes. And likely no bloodshed will be necessary even when China dictates the terms.

You are assuming in time China will become so powerful like the US where it can just invade countries like Iraq with impunity. Maybe, maybe not. That remains an assuming until it becomes a reality.

Well, Taiwan is like 100 miles away; it's not exactly Iraq. But yes, everything depends on China's continued growth. If you're not even getting stronger, then forget about reclaiming territory; that's true for everyone. It's not a done deal but it looks easily more likely than not at this point.

 

[nugroho]

It's true but the problem isn't lack of coal, it's local government trying to hit annual emission target. They thought all would be well but the big boost in export means a lot of energy use throughout the year, and the effect of the pandemic shutdown on emission was overestimated and more than made up by all that manufacturing.

Well okay in theory it does have a tiny bit to do with the trade war with Australia, because Australia's coal is quite clean burning. Switching to lower grades of coal from Mongolia/domestic means the emission is also worse.

I think Australian coal will be substituted by Indonesian coal

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Agree. Getting Taiwan through forced invasion is not what China wants. It doesn’t do China any good to get Taiwan this way.

Why not?

 

[siegecrossbow]

It's true but the problem isn't lack of coal, it's local government trying to hit annual emission target. They thought all would be well but the big boost in export means a lot of energy use throughout the year, and the effect of the pandemic shutdown on emission was overestimated and more than made up by all that manufacturing.

Well okay in theory it does have a tiny bit to do with the trade war with Australia, because Australia's coal is quite clean burning. Switching to lower grades of coal from Mongolia/domestic means the emission is also worse.

It has nothing to do with Australian coal and has everything to do with "genius" bureaucrats who wants to meet the emission quota by shutting off street lights.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Power crunch turning the lights out in China

The Economic Observer newspaper reported that China’s hydropower plants have fed 21.7 billion fewer kilowatt-hours on to the state grid so far this month due to the dry season, but thermal power generation had also been losing steam due to thermal coal and natural gas undersupplies.

The retail price of thermal coal from the resource-rich Shanxi province has surged to 663 yuan per tonne this week, a two-year high, while the LNG net price for power producers hit 7,800 per tonne.

Yu’an, a popular financial analysis blog on WeChat updated by former Xinhua reporters, revealed that Beijing’s Australian coal ban had also left many power producers in limbo

“Power plants have in the past years retrofitted their equipment to use quality Australian coal but they cannot switch to domestic alternative overnight simply because comparable pure thermal coal is not easy to source from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia due to stricter safety and environmental rules,” noted one post on the blog.

“Imports from Russia and Indonesia are still on their way to China.”

It also added that more than 80 Australian vessels with coal had been “held up” off Chinese ports. These hold about 8.8 million tonnes but despite reports about individual ports granting entry to some ships most sit at sea waiting for a U-turn from Beijing on its coal ban.

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[KenC]

Global Times reports the extreme weather in the south and high industrial activities causing the short supply issue. China only has small surplus of electrical supply.

A director of the China Renewable Energy Society, who declined to be identified, told the Global Times on Thursday that China actually has a tiny surplus of electricity, and electricity rates have been falling. The shortage of power in several provinces will be short-lived.

"The main reason for the electricity shortages is the sudden drop in temperatures in the south, which has led to a surge in demand for electricity and affected supply. In the south, due to high humidity and low temperatures, freezing rain easily forms, and it will affect power towers and transmission lines, and therefore power transmission.

"Extreme weather also affects wind turbines, hydropower plants and photovoltaic power facilities," said the director.

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