Chinese Economics Thread

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Litebreeze said:
I can't help but thinking, is this the end of 'hide your power, bide your time'?:cool:
To the new beginning? Wonder what will Deng say if he were around? :rolleyes:
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China already has a larger output of goods and services than the USA.
Furthermore, China is aiming to double the size of its economy in the next 15 years.

How are China supposed to hide its brightness/power/influence?
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
nugroho said:
after this fully operational

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Simandou only has 2 billion tonnes of iron ore.
So production of 100 million tonnes per year is feasible, which is nowhere near enough to replace all Australian production.
Australian mines produce 900 million tonne per year.

But it is feasible for Simandou to permanently take away some Australian iron ore exports
 
LCR34

LCR34

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Simandou only has 2 billion tonnes of iron ore.
So production of 100 million tonnes per year is feasible, which is nowhere near enough to replace all Australian production.
Australian mines produce 900 million tonne per year.

But it is feasible for Simandou to permanently take away some Australian iron ore exports
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A relative actually made millions brokering recycled/used metal parts to China back in 05-07'. Could foresee the trend returns if China cant quench its insatiable hunger for metal.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Dolcevita said:
You are looking at this from simplistic view. If you exclude the iron export in form of net steel export from China, Brazil should meet China's domestic needs.
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I already did a back of the envelope calculation, and it doesn't look like Brazil is enough. Rationale below.

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In 2019, China imported 664 million tonnes of Australian iron ore. At a grade of 65%, that's enough to produce 431 million tonnes of steel.

In 2019, China produced 875 million tonnes of steel, which was split:

1. Domestic Construction: 488 million tonnes
2. Everything else (domestic consumption + exported products): 487 million tonnes
 
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Deleted member 15887

Guest
drowingfish said:
actually, it seems that tight monetary and prudent fiscal policies has been Xi's default position. He last attempted to deleverage in 2017-18, made limited progress, but had to reverse course as a result of the trade war and virus. Now that China is in a stronger economic position in comparison with everyone else, Xi may feel tempted to turn up the heat again on big money in China.

This is probably one thing that he and Li Keqiang can find common ground in. Xi wants to squeeze big money because of their potential to subvert CCP rule, Li wants to squeeze big money because they take all the bank loans away from small businesses. I suspect some of the defaults by SOE's were by design, to assuage the idea that SOE's are safe haven for liquidities not due to market qualities because they are government-backed.
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What are Xi and Li's biggest differences and disagreements in your view? Other than disagreeing abt what should be considered poverty, I don't really see any huge friction between them.
 
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