Chinese Economics Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
about the rate of inflation, lets see when inflation in china approaches those countriues inflation. thats what will happen if CPC doesnt wake up.

yeah, chinas banks are making big profits..thats because the property market bubble hasnt burst yet. When that happens, they will have a problem as big or bigger than the 90´s, when chinas banks came saddlened with huge debts that came from excessive state lending. Same story happening again. local governments are cheating the system. the central government will pick the bill.

you want to compare a city state of 5 million (singapure) to the 3rd largest country in the world, 2nd largest economy and the most populated one (china) ??? You have much much less control of SOE´s in a big country.

china doesnt have a long time to reorient their economy. their salaries are increasing, and there is a lot of talk of moving industries out of the country. Yeah, the country is modernizing, but majority of china´s workers are poorly qualified, unable to adapt to the new economy.

There is not going to be economic implosion . Western press like to spread the malicious rumor out of jealously. I have heard it for at least 3 decades. None has materialized sofar. It is more of wishfull thinking than reality

Why to begin with demand far outstripped the supply. In the next 2 decades China has to move 300 million surplus labor into the cities. So they are still far from saturated.

In China downpayment for home are 40% now and required a stringent credit worthy borrower unlike in west where you can buy home for 0 downpayment
The bank reserve ratio is 20% meaning they have 20Cent in cash for every dollar that they lent .So total 60% of the loan is backed by asset.
The goverment debt is only 20% of GDP a very low number compare that to US 100% of GDP or Japan 200% of GDP

Having mortgage of questionable quality they bundled and sliced the mortgage and sell it as premium quality investment to the public and institution. Then compounded the problem they insured it with no asset backup. All the while the regulatory body pretend nothing happened .

That is how you got financial crisis . No such thing happened in China! .

Most of the capital investment are directed to building road, railway, low income housing, school,hospital, airport.etc. Those investment are not meant to directly make money even in the west public transit,school, hospital are subsidized!

But they will bring multiplier effect by facilitating better transportation, healthier population, better educated worker etc. In the end it will benefit economy indirectly!
 
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bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Foreign exchange reserves aren't used like that to begin with, but the whole issue with the 'property bubble' et al is simply not the same sort of situation that occurred with western property bubbles, but people keep conflating the two. Also I would strongly question the conventional capitalist 'wisdom' that SOEs are always inherently inefficient, particulary since administrative quality controls are not something strictly reserved for profit generation alone, even taking into consideration the size of the Chinese economy and population.

Possibly using ones forex in that manner is'nt the norm, but lets say when a countries' internal revenues don't meet the needs of the government, it decides to use its surplus forex in stead of borrowing.

But SOE's and other favoured companies apparently get most of the investment capital at the expense of private companies. So under those circumstances, what chance has a private individual coming up Chinese versions of "Microsoft" "Apple" "Space X" etc etc
 
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Maggern

Junior Member
It's a standard Anglo-American notion that SOEs are inherently inefficient and constitue nothing more than a drain on public funds. As a Norwegian, I don't mind SOEs. They are very important in many economies as they provide stable jobs for millions and in some cases provide services that no private enterprise would enter (or perform at the same scale with the same marginal profits). As long as SOEs are exposed to competition, they will shrug off most of their inefficiencies (though not all). Major close-to monopoly private enterprises like Wal-Mart, Microsoft etc also have tendencies towards inefficiency, as by the laws of economics.

And yeah, the "property bubble" will not kill the banks if it bursts, as most of the property financing is done through savings rather than lending.
 

Martian

Senior Member
Inside Macau's new $2 billion casino

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Macau's newest casino opened its doors Sunday hoping to lure visitors from across Asia in the latest sign that gambling firms are betting large on continued growth at the world's biggest gaming hub. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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The HK$14.9 billion (S$2.37 billion) Galaxy Macau, which boasts 450 gaming tables, 1,100 slot machines, and more than 2,200 hotel rooms, hopes to tap the burgeoning gaming revenues being drawn by the former Portuguese colony. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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An employee walks past a fountain and lighting installation at the lobby of Galaxy Macau, the latest resort in Macau, as it opens for business on May 15, 2011. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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Lying on a 550,000-square-metre plot on the glitzy Cotai strip, the Galaxy boasts three plush hotels, a rooftop wave pool and a man-made beach. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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Attendants welcome guests inside Galaxy Macau, the latest resort in Macau, during its opening on May 15, 2011. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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Employees walk inside the "High Limits Area" of a casino on the opening day of Galaxy Macau, the latest resort in Macau on May 15, 2011. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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Croupiers sit in front of gaming tables inside a casino on the opening day of Galaxy Macau, the latest resort in Macau on May 15, 2011. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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A casino official checks a slot machine prior to the opening of the Galaxy Macau casino on May 15, 2011. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)

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Galaxy Entertainment Group Chairman Lui Che-woo speaks during a news conference on the opening day of Galaxy Macau, the latest resort in Macau on May 15, 2011. (Text and Photo: AFP, Reuters)
 
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ahho

Junior Member
Amazing how you can transform the life of people by building roads, bridges, car factory

GM Bets Big on Rural China Markets

Success of Microvans Prompts Push to Manufacture Other No-Frills Vehicles for Emerging Consumers.

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By NORIHIKO SHIROUZU

HUANGZHONG VILLAGE, China—Farmer Zhang Zuoming and his extended family's growing fleet of microvans in this dusty village in China's far west explains why General Motors Co. is rushing to recalibrate its China strategy.

As a decade-long boom in car sales along the prosperous coast eases, inland villages like this one have become the new sales frontier for GM and other foreign auto makers.

Inexpensive microvans, on a Liuzhou, China, assembly line, have helped wheat farmer Zhang Zuoming become an entrepreneur.

Huangzhong villagers are part of a larger swath of people in less developed parts of China becoming rich enough to buy a no-frills car. Their growing demand for cheap yet sturdy vehicles is at the heart of GM's strategy to double its sales in China to around five million units by 2015 from about 2.35 million in 2010.

Roughly half of all the vehicles that GM sells in China are Wuling microvans, made by a company in which GM has a 44% stake. The other primary partner in the venture is SAIC Motor Corp., GM's main joint venture partner in China, which owns 50%. The rest is owned by a local company in southern China where SAIC GM Wuling Automobile Co. is based.

As General Motors makes a push into China's automotive hinterland, SAIC-GM Wuling executive Scott Tien introduces WSJ's Norihiko Shirouzu to the little truck that's come to dominate the country's rural roadways.
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Wuling is now scouting for a location to build a third manufacturing complex to meet explosive demand. With GM's help, the Wuling joint venture also launched a second low-cost brand called Baojun (which means "treasured horse") last year. Its first product, a sedan called the Baojun 630, was recently unveiled at the Shanghai auto show.

GM estimates that the market for low-cost cars in China already amounts to six million vehicles a year—bigger than major auto markets such as France and Japan. It is dominated by local companies including Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and Chery Automobile Co.

"The decade of 2000 to 2010 was an era marked by very dramatic growth on the coast. But real growth is going to happen now more toward the interior of the country," says Wuling Executive Vice President Matthew Tsien, a 28-year GM veteran who has been sent into China to improve Wuling's performance.

Four years ago, Mr. Zhang lost his supplementary factory job as his employer for nearly two decades folded after failing to meet government environmental standards.

The 2,000-yuan-a-year job—about $310—wasn't high-paying, but the 41-year-old didn't want to go back to his 500-yuan-a-year life as a full-time wheat farmer. The decision he made in 2007, to buy a $4,500 Wuling microvan, with government subsidies, transformed his life.

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Norihiko Shirouzu/The Wall Street Journal
Zhang Zuoming

Today he drives his workhorse van, and a second Wuling model he added in 2008, to haul goods. He brings home 50,000 yuan a year and has used the new wealth to remodel his house and take his father and other relatives to Beijing for sightseeing. Mr. Zhang, his brothers and nephews in Huangzhong, 15 miles outside Xining, capital of the far-Western province of Qinghai, have since bought four more Wuling vans. Other villagers have followed suit.

"My whole family needs to eat, and we totally count on these Wuling vans," Mr. Zhang says in his living room, gesturing toward one of the Wulings parked outside his house. "This has brought real happiness and joy around here." He was able to buy his second Wuling with a windfall profit he made when the government paid him compensation for some of his land it annexed to build a power plant.

According to an estimate by U.S. consulting firm Alix Partners, the number of households in China with annual income of more than 60,000 yuan—a level deemed sufficient for a family to buy a no-frills car—is estimated to nearly double over the next four years to 65.6 million.


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Since 2002, GM has been working with Wuling, a relatively unknown producer of microvans in Liuzhou, an industrial hub in the poor southern province of Guangxi. The move has paid off handsomely. Wuling has seen its sales surge nearly eight fold since 2002 to 1.15 million microvans last year.

As sales growth slows in big cities on China's eastern seaboard—in part because of traffic-fighting restrictions on car sales and market saturation—GM and SAIC are making fresh moves to penetrate inland regions.

GM's Mr. Tsien says the site for the new Wuling plant the joint venture is thinking about building most likely would be sited in an inland province like Sichuan. He says Wuling has already been adding capacity since late last year to the existing plants, a move that will boost the company's overall capacity to 1.3 million vehicles a year this year.

GM and SAIC are so sure of the new Baojun brand's potential in inland Chinese cities, that they are ready to build an all-new factory dedicated to the vehicle in Liuzhou with capacity to produce 400,000 a year. The plant will start production by the end of 2012.

"There's a massive market for people who want affordable vehicles," said Kevin Wale, head of GM's China operations.

GM faces competition. A joint venture between Nissan Motor Co. and Dongfeng Motor Group Co., for example, has announced plans to launch a China-only brand, Qichen, which is due to start selling its own no-frills cars in 2012.

Wuling began building mini farm trucks in the 1960s and entered a segment that has come to be known as "mini commercial vehicles," or microvans, in the mid-1980s with technological assistance from Japan's Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Daihatsu Motor Co. SAIC invested in Wuling in 2001, and GM did so the following year.

Since 2002, GM and SAIC helped Wuling improve what were spartan workhorse vehicles used primarily by farmers and small shop owners. They provided technology and made them more reliable and durable for the pot-holed roads they travel along.

For a swelling tide of households in China who are now wealthy enough to buy cars, boxy Wuling vans come with bare-bone features. Some have one airbag as an option, and navigation systems are not offered at all. CD players, air-conditioning, power windows and power locks are all optional features.

When GM first bought its stake in Wuling, the brand sold 147,000 vehicles that year and "was struggling to be profitable," Mr. Tsien says. It was an important investment for GM, but within the company it was hardly noticed.

"If somebody were to mention [Wuling], I would not have known what it was, and I worked for GM," he says. "So clearly our significance has increased."

Wuling is fast evolving into a centerpiece of GM's global strategy, as demand for its thrifty vans takes off.

Another satisfied customer is Ba Peijun, who runs a small meat-delivery service in a rural village called Gongmazhuang outside the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou. The 48-year-old villager's business began taking off after he bought a Wuling van in 2004 for 36,500 yuan with loans from his sister and friends.

"Wuling van quality is really great. It is sturdy, seldom needs repair," Mr. Ba said. "It can haul more cargo—more or less double what I was able to carry on my old van. It's of great help to my business." By 2008, thanks in part to the new van, Mr. Ba was able to save enough money to start a second business—a pancake restaurant. He has since bought a second car, a VW Santana.

So many villagers in Gongmazhuang have purchased Wuling vans that people around the place often refer to it as Wuling Village.


[video]http://online.wsj.com/video/gm-china-minivan-joint-venture/15A938B2-C79E-4CA6-A773-169C3B19C100.html[/video]

Ah the wuling microvan and the microvan class in China is basically a good gap bridging vehicle. You can buy a new one at 50000 yuan and a used one for 20000 and it can get you a job as a contract driver or a family car. I never understand why North America never allow this class of car to be made here since it is a people mover. I know there is safety concern, but why are there double standards when you can pretty much import this thing
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
After suffering, and surviving, decades of sanctions, Cubans may finally be able to enjoy the benefits of booming oil prices, with some Chinese help in technology and credit.

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VARADERO, Cuba - Vice-President Xi Jinping said on Monday that he was delighted to see strengthened cooperation between China and Cuba in the petrochemical industry.

Xi made the remarks while inspecting an oil drilling project in Varadero, about 130 kilometers from Havana.

Great Wall Drilling Co (GWDC), a subsidiary of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), has been working with Cuban oil companies to provide drilling services in the region.

Accompanied by Cuban Vice-President Ramiro Valdes, Xi listened to introductions from Chinese and Cuban oil executives on bilateral cooperation in the petroleum industry.

"I hope the cooperation (between the Chinese and Cuban petroleum industries) will be carried out on a solid basis to seek common benefits and a win-win situation," Xi said.

Since August 2005, GWDC has drilled 63 wells along the coast from Havana to Varadero, of which 31 are contracted with Cuba's state petroleum company, CUPET, and the rest with other Cuban oil firms. Total output of petroleum and natural gas from these wells has reached 13 million barrels.

GWDC is only responsible for drilling, with Cuban oil companies take over the wells after this is completed.

GWDC has five drilling rigs and six technical service teams in Cuba, employing around 400 Chinese and Cuban workers.

Cuban Minister of Basic Industry Tomas Benitez Hernandez said that CNPC has been doing a good job in protecting the environment in its drilling, pointing out all the work has been conducted on the coastline between Havana and Varadero, two important tourist cities for the Caribbean nation.

Bilateral cooperation in the petroleum industry is a role model of cooperation between the two countries, he said.

It also reflects the friendship between the two nations, he said.

Besides working with GWDC, Cuban petroleum companies have also bought technological equipment from CNPC, he said, adding that it has been functioning well.

Cuba is also working with other Chinese partners to expand the nation's oil refining capacity with funding from China Development Bank.

These oil refining and liquefied gas projects are of great importance to Cuba, said Hernandez. They will help change the country's energy structure, he added.

He expressed Cuba's willingness to cooperate with Chinese companies, citing great potential in areas such as the Gulf of Mexico.

Companies from Canada, Spain, Angola and Vietnam are also cooperating with Cuba's petroleum industry.

One of the 13 economic and technological cooperation agreements signed between China and Cuba on June 6 involves expanded cooperation between CNPC and CUPET.

Xi wound up his busy three-day trip to Cuba on Tuesday morning.

His four-nation tour, which started on June 1 in Italy, will also take him to Uruguay and Chile, whose trade with China has been expanding fast in the past few years.

China is the second largest trade partner of Uruguay after Brazil, while China is Chile's largest trade partner and top export destination.

China Daily
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Soo... I'm not taking this article very seriously. What do you guys think?

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China's 'Wealth Drain': New Signs That Rich Chinese Are Set on Emigrating
By Xin Haiguang / Economic Observer / WorldCrunch Saturday, June 11, 2011


BEIJING — Is China facing a "Wealth Drain"? Do too many of the best and brightest — and above all, richest — Chinese dream of packing up their accumulated capital, and going to live abroad?

According to a new study, a majority of Chinese who have more than 10 million Yuan ($1.53 million) worth of individual assets find the idea of real—estate investment a lot less tempting than so—called "investment emigration." Nearly 60% of people interviewed claim they are either considering emigration through investment overseas, or have already completed the process, according to the 2011 Private Wealth Report on China published by China Merchants Bank and a business consulting firm Bain & Company. The richer you are, the study suggests, the likelier it is that you resort to emigration. And among those who possess more than 100 million yuan, 27 % have already emigrated while 47% are considering leaving.
(See: "On the Cutting Edge — China's Extraordinary Buildings")

The fact that more and more rich Chinese are seeking to emigrate is turning into a hot topic in China, and statistics prove that the trend is a real one. According to Caixin online, a Chinese website specialized in finance, the compound annual growth rate of overseas investment by Chinese individuals approached 100% between 2008 and 2010. The compound growth rate of the Chinese who used investments to emigrate to the United States in the past five years is 73%.

So why are wealthy Chinese so eager to leave their country? The simplest answer is that there are a lot of things in China that even the richest cannot buy (emigration is obviously not one of them). China's rich are fond of saying that nothing "is a problem if money can solve it." Among the irresolvable problems that spark emigration, there are material ones, and emotional ones.

The former includes issues like laws and regulations, the education system, social welfare, inheritance tax, quality of air, investing atmosphere, food safety, ability to travel, and so on. In short, these are the material factors that any State must provide to its people in order to ensure their happiness. In emerging countries such as China, these factors are still often found wanting.

Emotional reasons behind rich people's immigration are generally linked to the lack of a sense of personal safety, including safety of personal wealth, as well as fear about an uncertain future.
(See: "China Stamps Out Democracy Protests")

It thus appears that it is a certain "lack of well—being" that is pushing wealthy Chinese to emigrate. The results of the Private Wealth Report are very much in line with other studies. A recent Gallop Wellbeing Survey showed that most Chinese people feel depressed, even as China has sky—high economic growth rates that Europe and America can only dream of. According to the survey, which asked respondents to choose between "thriving," "struggling," and "suffering" to describe their situation, only 12% think themselves as "thriving," while 17% describe themselves as "suffering," and 71% "struggling." The number of Chinese who feel that their life is improving is comparable to the number of Afghans and Yemeni who feel the same way, while the number of persons feeling they are "struggling" is approximately the same as in Haiti, Azerbaijan and Nepal.

It is a paradox that, in a country where more and more people are getting richer by the day — albeit to the detriment of the poor, who have benefitted very little from the country's new wealth — the general feeling of well—being should remain at rock—bottom. The poor grumble while the rich flee.

The truth is that, unless they emigrate, the wealthy have to suffer from the same causes of unhappiness as the poor. Take food safety. Last year, when a Chinese woman living in Canada was asked by the International Herald Tribune why she had left her country, she said it was because of the Sanlu (toxic baby milk) case, and also because of the "hatred against the rich." Her answer highlights the fact that, as the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider, and the poor are complaining more and more, the rich are also getting more nervous. Some rich people even worry that the "redistribution of wealth might start all over again."


Although the danger seems overblown for now, people are starting to wonder where the public hatred of the rich might lead. The wealthy also know that they bear some of the responsibility for the unequal distribution of wealth. The so—called "original sin of wealth" is not totally without foundation, and it is often difficult for the rich to stop enriching themselves. Fluctuating market conditions bring out a survival instinct that sometimes makes them commit illegal or immoral acts. Once they realize this, they often chose to avoid the trap by emigrating and starting afresh.

The situation would not be as serious, of course, if the number of people deciding to leave were low. But once a few personal choices take the shape of a massive drain, the consequences of their departure on the economy and on society, through the example they set, can be dire.

An even bigger cause of concern is that, when rich people pack their money and leave, not only are they no longer identifying with their country, but they are also avoiding their social obligations. While the reason behind these people's decision matters little, the undeniable fact is that they make money from this society, but they refuse to give anything back.

Rich people who decide to move to a foreign country should know that, by doing so, they are stoking the dissatisfaction among those who stay behind. The poor get angrier because they cannot leave, and their hatred towards the remaining rich grows even bigger. This is the most corrosive thing that can happen to a society.

I especially think the inherent idea that everyone wants to leave China is a bit awkward at best and wishful thinking at worst.
Thoughts?
 

Player 0

Junior Member
^It's overblown, Americans and Europeans who are wealthy often emigrate to other countries like Singapore or Hong Kong where they find living conditions better suited to their needs, should there be alarmist talk about this?

In any case it's just another issue of creating reforms to meet the demands of market forces, lack of private schools, health and food safety regulations and wealth disparity need to be tackled anyway and if the government is unable to that successfully this is the result. This is all a very recent trend that has only been happening for the last couple of years anyone who jumps on this and inflates this as some kind of crisis that will cause China's downfall is just that: sensationalism, get back to me in the next ten years and see how the government responds and what the ultimate fate of this issue is.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Brain drain... money... what else propaganda reasons are they going to think of next? They said that back during the 1997 Hong Kong handover. Oh and lets not forget how they acquired that money... They'll soon find the rules and regulations of the West even more hampering and the West will probably see what they do as criminal. China where the government controls the movement of people who can so easily leave? What happened to Kadeer's billions? If it were so easy to transfer money, why does the US complain about how American corporations can't take their money out of China? Who has said living in China is a picnic to reveal to the world that thought the opposite? That's why it sounds made up. What about all the Chinese that went back to China to start businesses. Look at some of the richest self-made female billionaires in the world that come from China. A couple of them were living in the US beforehand. Let's spin that.

And beware of Time magazine. They recently merged with the Daily Beast and their editor Tina Brown had some dedication to women in power issue. I looked for what Chinese would be in there. Did I find half of the top twelve richest self-made female billionaires in the world that happen to come from China including number one? Nope, as far as I read. They had Hollywood celebrities. They had Oprah. They had JK Rowling lauded as one of the richest self-made women. You'd figure it would be a grand statement for women especially in light of the criticism of how women are treated in China but I certainly didn't see number one richest self-made woman in there at least. Who were in there? People I never heard of but I did notice the few in there had something in common. They all had a Westernized look. Now I get it. They weren't going to show the top richest self-made woman in there because she looked more like someone you'd walk by in Chinatown and not Wall Street or Rodeo Drive. Advertising that you can become one of the richest self-made women in the world in China doesn't work in their scheme of things.
 
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