Singapore may become second Chinese enclave to surpass U.S. in nominal per-capita GDP
Singapore is poised to overtake the United States in nominal per-capita GDP this year.
Last year, Macau (US$49,745) surpassed the United States (US$47,132) in nominal per-capita GDP. This year, Singapore is likely to join Macau and also surpass the United States.
In early April, the IMF released its 2011 projections for U.S. and Singaporean nominal per-capita GDP (see
):
United States $48,666
Singapore $48,286
However, the Singaporean economy unexpectedly "rose at an annual rate of 23.5 percent last quarter from the previous three months...and compares with the 11.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 14 economists. The central bank said separately it will allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate more."
Between the twin effects of an unexpectedly surging Singaporean economy and a faster appreciation in the Singaporean dollar, I expect Singapore's per-capita GDP to significantly increase beyond the $380 gap that separates the United States and Singapore.
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Singapore Allows Further Currency Gains as GDP Grows Twice Estimated Pace
By Shamim Adam
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s economy grew more than twice the pace economists estimated in the first quarter and the central bank said it would allow further gains in the currency in the third tightening of monetary policy in a year.
The Singapore dollar jumped to a record after a trade ministry report showed gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 23.5 percent last quarter from the previous three months. That’s up from 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter, and compares with the 11.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 14 economists. The central bank said separately it will allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate more.
The island’s dollar has climbed 10 percent over the past year, the best performer in Asia outside Japan, as policy makers used the currency as their main tool to fight inflation. Earnings at Singapore companies including lender DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and property developer City Developments Ltd. have surged after the economy’s expansion boosted demand for loans and spurred home prices to a record.
“We were taken aback by the strength of the economy in the first quarter,” said Chua Hak Bin, a Singapore-based economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Still, the central bank’s tightening is less aggressive than in the past” and will result in a more modest appreciation in the currency than the past two decisions, reflecting the uncertainties in the global economy, he said.
Currency Jumps
The Singapore dollar jumped to S$1.2496 a dollar after the central bank’s semi-annual policy statement. It traded at S$1.2505 as of 8:59 a.m. local time.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore revalued the currency in April 2010 and said in October it would steepen and widen the trading band while seeking a modest and gradual appreciation. The central bank guides the Singapore dollar against a basket of currencies within an undisclosed band.
“Economic activity is likely to be sustained at a high level for the rest of the year, even as the underlying growth momentum moderates,” the central bank said. Today’s policy “adjustment takes into account the tighter policy stance adopted in April and October last year, which will continue to have a restraining effect on the economy and prices,” it said.
The central bank will re-center the currency’s band upwards, while keeping it below the prevailing level of the nominal effective exchange rate, it said today. There will be no change to the slope or width of the band, it said."