Chinese Economics Thread

[delft]

China has started development of a fascinating new nuclear power concept, Thorium Molten Salt Reactor, that is fundamentally cheaper to produce, install and use than the current light water reactors. I understand that a difficult problem, fuel reprocessing, has been solved and they will likely be as active as in the introduction of high speed rail. So in about ten years time these things should start to replace coal burning power plants, and give cheaper electricity than anywhere else.
The original idea stems from a nuclear power bomber aircraft conceived in the US in the 1950's and work is going on in several other countries, but China is putting much more in this development.

 

[bladerunner]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

Norway is the largest economy in northern Europe (at least we were in early 2009), but it has almost no industry to speak of (not in Norway at least).

Thats a shame I was up that way 20yrs ago, whats happened to the aluminium,oil industry , manufacturingfrom primary products etc.

The reason why I was up that way was because the Finnish Consular General showed me something thatwas in side a small lock cap plastic bag ,and it would not have weighed more than a few ozs. The minute I saw it I instantly new it was worth a good deal of money if not millions if one owned the sole distribution rights to N.Z.
After being given the Ok by the Finnish manufacturers I went over there with the Consular General in tow , only to be turned down.They were not even interested in any meeting to even talk about it.
Disappointed I turned my attention to Norway but nothing.

Have a guess at what the product was and the copious amount of money i dreamed of making from it?

 

[bladerunner]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

double posting

 

[Maggern]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

Thats a shame I was up that way 20yrs ago, whats happened to the aluminium,oil industry , manufacturingfrom primary products etc.

The reason why I was up that way was because the Finnish Consular General showed me something thatwas in side a small lock cap plastic bag ,and it would not have weighed more than a few ozs. The minute I saw it I instantly new it was worth a good deal of money if not millions if one owned the sole distribution rights to N.Z.
After being given the Ok by the Finnish manufacturers I went over there with the Consular General in tow , only to be turned down.They were not even interested in any meeting to even talk about it.
Disappointed I turned my attention to Norway but nothing.

Have a guess at what the product was and the copious amount of money i dreamed of making from it?

Uh, considering it was Finland, I guess something related to telecommunications? I have no idea

As for the oil here I didn't count it. I realize now that it's called primary industry, but I thought more in line with aluminium plants and construction of oil infrastructure to be the main heavy industries here. The oil is processed almost exclusively outside of Norway. Of course we have manufacturing and some heavy industries, but they really play a minute part of the economy as a whole (which was my point). Most of Norway's revenue come from exporting crude and gas, and the customary financial and service sectors.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

Manufacturing is very important for an economy indeed. But today, most of the western economies are built around the service economy. Very few of them have significant manufacturing bases left (except the US and Germany). The financial crisis is a clear indicator on how important the financial sector, rather than manufacturing, is for most western European countries. In the end, consumer capacity is perhaps the most important economic factor. Manufacturing itself is waste unless it can be consumed. Large manufacturing economies are dependant on consumers to buy their goods. Of course the ooposite is true as well, a consumer economy can quickly fall apart if there is no manufacturing to satisfy the needs. The advantage of such economies is that they can often create industry to fill the basic needs of its consumers if there is no external producer. Manufacturing economies cannot create a consumer base if there is a lack of consumers domestically.

Norway is the largest economy in northern Europe (at least we were in early 2009), but it has almost no industry to speak of (not in Norway at least).

No I completely disagree with your position . the financial crisis of 2008 proof once for all that countries like germany and china that has viable manufacturing thrive while the much touted "service industry" countries like Great Britain and US is languishing in recession.

The rooster coming home to the roost because to much "Innovation" in the financial services. I remember ENRON with their "Asset light industy" that is touted as the best thing since slice bread by the the like of Yale and Harvard school of economic as the wave of future. Turn out it is nothing but Ponzi scheme!

There is so much you can do with selling insurance or real estate to each other Atter all it was called service industry meaning to service something If the underlying economy is not there there is nothing to service.

Take example real estate. Real estate fourish when you have growing wages but if the idustry collapse and people thrown out the street Where real estate go nowhere but into the dump

Norway do have industry namely Oil and Gas. The income and royalty from that industry support the welfare state of Norway and high wages

 

[bladerunner]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

Uh, considering it was Finland, I guess something related to telecommunications? I have no idea

Nothing so glamorous as that, It was nothing more than a Horse shoe nail made by "Mustad. It was a Swedish company nail made under licence in Finland.... dam

THey were in the process of diverging their manufacturing and regionalising it. And it was their goal to take over the company in New Zealand that currently handled their product. The market which consisted of 200,000 horses being regularly shod plus several thousand race horses week in and week out.



THeir is no other supplier of horse nails in NZ that is worth mentioning , as the MUstad brand are recognised as the best in the world. For a brief moment I thought I had come across a excellent alternative.
THeres a terriffic mark up on the nails, at the time they cost 0.5cents each and retail between 10-12cents each and each horse requires 24 nails. JUstDo the maths as a sole supplier, it would have been a nice earner on the side.

So from a miltary point of view I was outflanked and decimated.


However there are . I think that are worth pointing out,

That low tech manufacturing is now the preserve of Asian nations or 3rd world countries is not necessarily true as under certain circumstances quality still trumps price.

I still cannot understand why Nustad which I thought had its roots in Norway, felt the need to transfer their manufacturing of nails to Finland and to Australia, thus depriving their own folk of work.

 

[bladerunner]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

No I completely disagree with your position . the financial crisis of 2008 proof once for all that countries like germany and china that has viable manufacturing thrive while the much touted "service industry" countries like Great Britain and US is languishing in recession.

The rooster coming home to the roost because to much "Innovation" in the financial services. I remember ENRON with their "Asset light industy" that is touted as the best thing since slice bread by the the like of Yale and Harvard school of economic as the wave of future. Turn out it is nothing but Ponzi scheme!

There is so much you can do with selling insurance or real estate to each other Atter all it was called service industry meaning to service something If the underlying economy is not there there is nothing to service.

Take example real estate. Real estate fourish when you have growing wages but if the idustry collapse and people thrown out the street Where real estate go nowhere but into the dump

Norway do have industry namely Oil and Gas. The income and royalty from that industry support the welfare state of Norway and high wages

Thats why countries like Brazil are having a serious rethink (see post1249)South American with anything between 25% to 40% pop earning less than $2 a day is in the same position India and to some extent China was a few years ago, and should follow similar steps to improve the livelihood of its population.

 

[Maggern]

Re: "Americans now consider Asia more important than Europe by a 47%-to-37% margin"

No I completely disagree with your position . the financial crisis of 2008 proof once for all that countries like germany and china that has viable manufacturing thrive while the much touted "service industry" countries like Great Britain and US is languishing in recession.

The rooster coming home to the roost because to much "Innovation" in the financial services. I remember ENRON with their "Asset light industy" that is touted as the best thing since slice bread by the the like of Yale and Harvard school of economic as the wave of future. Turn out it is nothing but Ponzi scheme!

There is so much you can do with selling insurance or real estate to each other Atter all it was called service industry meaning to service something If the underlying economy is not there there is nothing to service.

Take example real estate. Real estate fourish when you have growing wages but if the idustry collapse and people thrown out the street Where real estate go nowhere but into the dump

Norway do have industry namely Oil and Gas. The income and royalty from that industry support the welfare state of Norway and high wages

I disagree with your position again . Yes there is problems with pure service economies (like Iceland). But then as in every aspect of life it's a matter of proportions. A secondary industry-heavy economy won't make the really big money, and a service-heavy economy will be extremely vulnerable to fluctuations as it has no real secondary base to fall back upon.

PS: Norway survived as it did (most scandinavian countries survived at some point, but norway more so) almost solely because it continued to churn out goods that all the world continued to demand (that is, oil, and secondly financial services).

 

[Martian]

Taiwan's GDP is forecast to hit US$506.82 billion this year

Taiwan: Good probability of becoming 20th-largest economy in the world for this year.

Taiwan is experiencing explosive growth. Its economy is forecast to reach the 1/2-trillion-dollar GDP milestone this year, which is two years ahead of the IMF's original projection. Based strictly on an economic comparison, Taiwan is 1/3 the size of the Russian or Indian economy.

If Belgium, Sweden, Poland, and Saudi Arabia cannot stay ahead of Taiwan this year then Taiwan will have become a G-20 nation, based on economic performance (see

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).

However, Taiwan is not recognized as a country by the international community (e.g. "One China" policy) and membership in the G-20 is based on more than just economics. Political consideration is an important factor in obtaining G-20 membership.

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"UPDATE: Taiwan Revises 4th-Quarter GDP Upward; Remains Upbeat On 2011
FEBRUARY 17, 2011, 5:33 A.M. ET

(Adds economists' comments on 2011 GDP growth outlook.)


By Fanny Liu and Aries Poon
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


TAIPEI (Dow Jones)--Taiwan's fourth-quarter economic growth was marginally faster than the government previously estimated as the island received a boost from strong exports and private investment, the statistics agency said Thursday, adding it expects the domestic economy to continue to expand at a fast clip this year in tandem with improvements in the global economy.

Revised data from the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics issued Thursday showed the island's gross domestic product grew 6.92% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, higher than the 6.48% growth the agency reported Jan. 31.

Taiwan's economy grew 10.82% in 2010, above the 10.47% increase estimated earlier, the statistics agency said. The annual growth rate last year was the fastest since 1987, when the economy grew 10.68%.

The higher growth rate in 2010 resulted in a higher base effect, which led Taiwan to revise its forecast for economic growth in 2011 to 4.92%, down from its initial estimate of 5.03%, even though the government boosted its real GDP estimate for this year to NT$14.905 trillion (US$506.82 billion) from NT$14.874 trillion, the agency said.

Taiwan's economy received a boost from robust global demand for its electronics and petrochemical products, and the island stands to benefit from a combination of new electronics product launches, continued high global energy prices, flush liquidity from easy global money conditions, and warming ties with China.

"The government's initial (2011) forecasts were a little high. Numbers are bound to look weaker this year because of the base effect," said Erik Lueth, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. "Taiwan is one of the most open economies in Asia. It's on the top of the list in terms of exposure to demand outside of Asia."

Although global food and energy prices will likely remain elevated in the near future, Taiwan trimmed its forecast on inflation for this year. The agency said home rentals--which accounted for about 20% of the island's consumer price index basket--"will likely remain stable" partly due to the government's recent slew of measures to cool the property market, which will offset some of the inflationary pressure.

A softer view on inflation "gives the central bank a bit more slack in tightening. But for now, given the central bank is already well on course for a steady inflation path, we don't see any need for them to ramp up that pace," said Donna Kwok, an economist at HSBC.

The agency also said it expects Taiwan's exports to grow 11.72% this year, up from its earlier estimate of 11.10% growth, but still much slower than the 34.84% increase in 2010. Imports will likely rise 10.24% this year, up from an earlier estimate of a 9.87% increase but still lower than the stellar 44.17% rise in 2010.

-By Fanny Liu and Aries Poon, Dow Jones Newswires, +886 25022557, [email protected]

--Paul Mozur contributed to the article."

 

[Schumacher]

Another international deal for China's HSR, this time with Kazakhstan. If all goes well, we can expect deals with Thailand and Malaysia to be announced in the next few months.

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"China and Kazakhstan will jointly build a high-speed railway connecting the central Asian nation's cities of Astana and Almaty, with the project to be completed in 2015, the Kazakhstan Railways president Askar Mamin said Tuesday in Beijing.

Trains on the 1,050-kilometer-long double-track planned line connecting Kazakhstan's capital Astana with its biggest city Almaty, will run at a maximum speed of 350 km per hour, serving 5 million passengers annually, said Mamin at a luncheon party with entrepreneurs from China and Kazakhstan.

Experts in China estimate that 65 percent of the line will run along the ground, with the rest 370 km made up of bridges and elevated railways.

Mamin, who is accompanying Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev on a three-day visit to China, said a memorandum of understanding had been signed with China's railways authorities.

According to the memo, the line will use the most advanced Chinese technology and new generation locomotives and cars.

Also, design institutes in both countries will work together on a feasibility study, while specialist firms from China and Kazakhstan will jointly construct the railway, says the memo.

China has quickly developed technology and skills to build high-speed railways over recent years. Its high-speed railways have carried more than 600 million passengers since the first line began operation in April 2007, Lu said.

By 2010, China's newly-built high-speed railways extended 4,674 km, of which 47 percent could run trains traveling at speeds of up to 350 km per hour, such as the Beijing to Tianjin and Wuhan to Guangzhou lines, He said.

Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev arrived in Beijing on Monday afternoon for a three-day state visit.

During the visit, he expressed the wish to further cooperate with China in more projects in high-tech and railways and road-building sectors. He said the Astana to Almaty high-speed line is just one of them."