bladerunner
Banned Idiot
However there are many "Catch Twenty Two " situations hiding in the wings.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Martian
Senior Member
World's largest exporters: #1 China, #2 United States, #3 Germany
#1 China: $1.58 trillion in 2010 exports
#2 United States: $1.28 trillion
#3 Germany: $1.264 trillion ($16 billion less than U.S.)
"As U.S. Exports Soar, It’s Not All Soybeans
By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: February 11, 2011
AMERICAN exports of goods rose 21 percent in 2010 to $1.28 trillion, as the world trading system shook off the effects of the financial crisis, according to figures released on Friday.
It was the sharpest rise in American exports since 1988, and it enabled the United States to pass Germany and again become the world’s second-largest exporter, behind China. The margin between the United States and Germany was only $16 [billion], a difference of just 1.2 percent, and could vanish as preliminary figures are revised.
But assuming the difference holds, it was the first time since 2002 that United States exports exceeded those of Germany when both were measured in dollars. A major reason for that was the weakness of the euro during the year as Europe was forced to bail out first Greece and then Ireland. Germany’s exports rose 18 percent when measured in euros, but just 13 percent in dollars.
Both countries fell further behind China, whose export volume rose 31 percent, to $1.58 trillion.
The increase in American exports came as manufacturing employment in the United States rose by 0.9 percent in 2010, the first annual increase since 1997. But the level of exports remained slightly below the amount recorded in 2008, before the financial crisis took hold.
The accompanying charts show the trends over the last decade in overall exports and within the manufacturing sector, whose importance has slipped but which still provided 74 percent of the country’s exports in 2010.
The sharpest decline in exports came in the category of computers and electronic products. In 2000, that sector accounted for a quarter of all manufactured exports. By 2010, its share was barely more than one-eighth.
To some extent that may reflect the decline in prices for computers. Since the figures are in current dollars, a constant volume would show up as a decline in prices. But it also probably reflects a trend toward moving computer assembly operations overseas, particularly to China.
Exports of chemical products rose particularly rapidly during the decade. In the charts, the chemical products are combined with products based on petroleum, coal, plastics and rubber. That sector’s exports rose at a compound annual rate of 9.5 percent during the decade.
The textile industry has been in decline for decades, but exports of fabric and clothing still amounted to $15.9 billion in 2010.
The export of agricultural products, including fish and lumber, rose 18 percent during the year to $65.7 billion. Exports of processed food, beverages and cigarettes, which are included in the manufacturing industry, were up 17 percent to $56.2 billion.
The figures belie a popular image of the United States as no longer making products, and being largely dependent on food exports. The total of agriculture-related exports in 2010, $122 billion, is less than the value of exports of either chemical or transportation products."
#1 China: $1.58 trillion in 2010 exports
#2 United States: $1.28 trillion
#3 Germany: $1.264 trillion ($16 billion less than U.S.)
"As U.S. Exports Soar, It’s Not All Soybeans
By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: February 11, 2011
AMERICAN exports of goods rose 21 percent in 2010 to $1.28 trillion, as the world trading system shook off the effects of the financial crisis, according to figures released on Friday.
It was the sharpest rise in American exports since 1988, and it enabled the United States to pass Germany and again become the world’s second-largest exporter, behind China. The margin between the United States and Germany was only $16 [billion], a difference of just 1.2 percent, and could vanish as preliminary figures are revised.
But assuming the difference holds, it was the first time since 2002 that United States exports exceeded those of Germany when both were measured in dollars. A major reason for that was the weakness of the euro during the year as Europe was forced to bail out first Greece and then Ireland. Germany’s exports rose 18 percent when measured in euros, but just 13 percent in dollars.
Both countries fell further behind China, whose export volume rose 31 percent, to $1.58 trillion.
The increase in American exports came as manufacturing employment in the United States rose by 0.9 percent in 2010, the first annual increase since 1997. But the level of exports remained slightly below the amount recorded in 2008, before the financial crisis took hold.
The accompanying charts show the trends over the last decade in overall exports and within the manufacturing sector, whose importance has slipped but which still provided 74 percent of the country’s exports in 2010.
The sharpest decline in exports came in the category of computers and electronic products. In 2000, that sector accounted for a quarter of all manufactured exports. By 2010, its share was barely more than one-eighth.
To some extent that may reflect the decline in prices for computers. Since the figures are in current dollars, a constant volume would show up as a decline in prices. But it also probably reflects a trend toward moving computer assembly operations overseas, particularly to China.
Exports of chemical products rose particularly rapidly during the decade. In the charts, the chemical products are combined with products based on petroleum, coal, plastics and rubber. That sector’s exports rose at a compound annual rate of 9.5 percent during the decade.
The textile industry has been in decline for decades, but exports of fabric and clothing still amounted to $15.9 billion in 2010.
The export of agricultural products, including fish and lumber, rose 18 percent during the year to $65.7 billion. Exports of processed food, beverages and cigarettes, which are included in the manufacturing industry, were up 17 percent to $56.2 billion.
The figures belie a popular image of the United States as no longer making products, and being largely dependent on food exports. The total of agriculture-related exports in 2010, $122 billion, is less than the value of exports of either chemical or transportation products."
Martian
Senior Member
China is officially world's 2nd-largest economy: $5.879 trillion
China is officially world's 2nd-largest economy at $5.879 trillion. Japan falls into 3rd-place at $5.474 trillion.
"China moves to world's No.2 economy as Japan's GDP shrinks
UPDATED Andrew Monahan
From: Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2011 11:15AM
Against a backdrop of a snow-capped Mount Fuji, skyscrapers soar at Yokohama port, south of Tokyo. (Picture: AP. Source: The Australian)
JAPAN ceded its spot as the world's second biggest economy to China in 2010, with a contraction in the fourth quarter as the strong yen contributed to an export slump, the end of auto subsidies depressed car purchases and a new tobacco tax hit cigarette sales.
The Japanese economy's fall from its 42-year reign in the number two spot behind the US comes as pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Naoto Kan to halt further decline. But merely achieving moderate growth ahead may prove difficult as the government grapples with a staggering public debt, prolonged deflation and low approval ratings.
Real gross domestic product contracted 1.1 per cent in annualised, seasonally adjusted terms in the October-December period, slowing sharply from a revised 3.3 per cent expansion in the previous period, government data showed today.
The result marks the first contraction since a revised 1.9 per cent pull back in July-September 2009. It compares with the median forecast for a 2.4 per cent contraction in a poll of economists by Dow Jones Newswires. In on-quarter terms, real GDP contracted 0.3 per cent, compared with revised 0.8 per cent expansion in the July-September period.
Japan's nominal GDP for 2010 was Y479.223 trillion, or $US5.474 trillion ($5.465 trillion), falling below the $US5.879 trillion figure for China in the same year.
While China's economy surpassed Japan's based on quarterly data for the two countries in the March-June period, today's reading marks the first time that China has done so on a full-year basis, the standard generally used for global rankings.
China's success story overshadows the fact that Japan's economy expanded for all of 2010. Growth in the first three quarters of the year meant that even with the poor showing in the fourth quarter, Japan's real GDP for the full year expanded 3.9 per cent on year.
While China overtakes Japan, it is also helping it along. Japanese exports to China hit a record Y13.087 trillion in 2010. The rapidly growing Chinese market for everything from cars and high-tech electronics to beverages is galvanising corporate Japan.
Naoki Izumiya, president of the beer-maker Asahi Breweries, said last week that the company's business in China has "increasing potential and appeal," a remark that rings true for various Japanese firms.
Continued growth in the Chinese economy as well as further pick-up in the US is expected to help Japan's economy bounce back in the first quarter of 2011.
Some analysts said that the numbers were stronger than expected but did not necessarily bode well for the economy since part of the rise was due to higher inventories, which could result in a slowdown in production if consumption remains weak.
Mizuho Research and Consulting senior economist Norio Miyagawa said he now expects full-year 2011 growth of less than 2 per cent. "Japan's weak consumer spending will likely keep weighing on the economy," he said.
Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano put the issue of China's growing economic clout growth in a positive light, saying that its high growth rate benefits all of Asia.
"We are pleased to see China's economy rapidly developing," he said in comments to reporters soon after the figures were announced.
A rebound can come none too soon for Japanese workers. Smaller northern winter bonuses dragged down earnings late last year. The jobless rate hovers around 5 per cent as firms hesitate to ramp up hiring, except for contract positions that pay less and offer fewer benefits.
The bleak jobs situation is hurting personal spending. Many young Japanese don't enjoy the kind of job stability and wage growth their parents did. New cars and other high-priced goods are out of reach for many in this younger generation.
Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 60 per cent of Japan's GDP, was down 0.7 per cent on quarter, compared with a revised 0.9 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Government purchasing incentives for fuel-efficient cars expired in September, weighing on car sales in the fourth quarter.
Consumption also suffered as smokers bought fewer cigarettes, after a tax introduced in October pushed up prices.
The falls overwhelmed a jump in sales of flat-panel televisions and other electronics covered by an incentive program for environmentally friendly products that was scaled back in December.
Domestic demand contributed 0.2 percentage point to the rate of GDP contraction, after adding a revised 1.0 percentage point to the GDP expansion in the previous quarter.
External demand, or exports minus imports, contributed 0.1 percentage point to the GDP contraction, after subtracting 0.1 percentage point from the GDP expansion in the previous quarter.
Exports fell 0.7 per cent on quarter, due in part to the strong yen, after rising a revised 1.5 per cent in the previous period. The contraction was the first since exports slid in the January-March quarter of 2009 as trade plummeted amid the global financial crisis.
The fall in exports came as the yen surged during the period, making Japanese goods more expensive overseas and eating into profits sent back to Japan.
Tokyo intervened in currency markets for the first time in more than six years in September, but the attempt failed. In early November, the US dollar sank to Y80.21, its lowest level in fifteen years and near the post-World War II record low of Y79.75.
Capital expenditure, which accounts for 16 per cent of GDP, rose 0.9 per cent on quarter, slowing from a revised 1.5 per cent gain in the previous quarter.
Despite some easing recently in price falls, entrenched deflation continues to weigh on business investment by pushing up real borrowing costs and prompting consumers to delay purchases as they wait for prices to fall further. That is one reason firms have remained reluctant to spend more despite generally strong earnings, economists say.
The GDP deflator, the broadest measure of price trends, was minus 1.6 in the quarter, compared with a revised minus 2.1 in the July-September period.
One bright spot during the period was real estate. Private residential investment increased 3.0 per cent on quarter, higher than a revised 1.8 per cent rise in the previous period. Discounted mortgage rates and a government purchasing incentive scheme for environmentally friendly properties have encouraged more people to buy homes despite anaemic growth in income."
China is officially world's 2nd-largest economy at $5.879 trillion. Japan falls into 3rd-place at $5.474 trillion.
"China moves to world's No.2 economy as Japan's GDP shrinks
UPDATED Andrew Monahan
From: Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2011 11:15AM
Against a backdrop of a snow-capped Mount Fuji, skyscrapers soar at Yokohama port, south of Tokyo. (Picture: AP. Source: The Australian)
JAPAN ceded its spot as the world's second biggest economy to China in 2010, with a contraction in the fourth quarter as the strong yen contributed to an export slump, the end of auto subsidies depressed car purchases and a new tobacco tax hit cigarette sales.
The Japanese economy's fall from its 42-year reign in the number two spot behind the US comes as pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Naoto Kan to halt further decline. But merely achieving moderate growth ahead may prove difficult as the government grapples with a staggering public debt, prolonged deflation and low approval ratings.
Real gross domestic product contracted 1.1 per cent in annualised, seasonally adjusted terms in the October-December period, slowing sharply from a revised 3.3 per cent expansion in the previous period, government data showed today.
The result marks the first contraction since a revised 1.9 per cent pull back in July-September 2009. It compares with the median forecast for a 2.4 per cent contraction in a poll of economists by Dow Jones Newswires. In on-quarter terms, real GDP contracted 0.3 per cent, compared with revised 0.8 per cent expansion in the July-September period.
Japan's nominal GDP for 2010 was Y479.223 trillion, or $US5.474 trillion ($5.465 trillion), falling below the $US5.879 trillion figure for China in the same year.
While China's economy surpassed Japan's based on quarterly data for the two countries in the March-June period, today's reading marks the first time that China has done so on a full-year basis, the standard generally used for global rankings.
China's success story overshadows the fact that Japan's economy expanded for all of 2010. Growth in the first three quarters of the year meant that even with the poor showing in the fourth quarter, Japan's real GDP for the full year expanded 3.9 per cent on year.
While China overtakes Japan, it is also helping it along. Japanese exports to China hit a record Y13.087 trillion in 2010. The rapidly growing Chinese market for everything from cars and high-tech electronics to beverages is galvanising corporate Japan.
Naoki Izumiya, president of the beer-maker Asahi Breweries, said last week that the company's business in China has "increasing potential and appeal," a remark that rings true for various Japanese firms.
Continued growth in the Chinese economy as well as further pick-up in the US is expected to help Japan's economy bounce back in the first quarter of 2011.
Some analysts said that the numbers were stronger than expected but did not necessarily bode well for the economy since part of the rise was due to higher inventories, which could result in a slowdown in production if consumption remains weak.
Mizuho Research and Consulting senior economist Norio Miyagawa said he now expects full-year 2011 growth of less than 2 per cent. "Japan's weak consumer spending will likely keep weighing on the economy," he said.
Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano put the issue of China's growing economic clout growth in a positive light, saying that its high growth rate benefits all of Asia.
"We are pleased to see China's economy rapidly developing," he said in comments to reporters soon after the figures were announced.
A rebound can come none too soon for Japanese workers. Smaller northern winter bonuses dragged down earnings late last year. The jobless rate hovers around 5 per cent as firms hesitate to ramp up hiring, except for contract positions that pay less and offer fewer benefits.
The bleak jobs situation is hurting personal spending. Many young Japanese don't enjoy the kind of job stability and wage growth their parents did. New cars and other high-priced goods are out of reach for many in this younger generation.
Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 60 per cent of Japan's GDP, was down 0.7 per cent on quarter, compared with a revised 0.9 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Government purchasing incentives for fuel-efficient cars expired in September, weighing on car sales in the fourth quarter.
Consumption also suffered as smokers bought fewer cigarettes, after a tax introduced in October pushed up prices.
The falls overwhelmed a jump in sales of flat-panel televisions and other electronics covered by an incentive program for environmentally friendly products that was scaled back in December.
Domestic demand contributed 0.2 percentage point to the rate of GDP contraction, after adding a revised 1.0 percentage point to the GDP expansion in the previous quarter.
External demand, or exports minus imports, contributed 0.1 percentage point to the GDP contraction, after subtracting 0.1 percentage point from the GDP expansion in the previous quarter.
Exports fell 0.7 per cent on quarter, due in part to the strong yen, after rising a revised 1.5 per cent in the previous period. The contraction was the first since exports slid in the January-March quarter of 2009 as trade plummeted amid the global financial crisis.
The fall in exports came as the yen surged during the period, making Japanese goods more expensive overseas and eating into profits sent back to Japan.
Tokyo intervened in currency markets for the first time in more than six years in September, but the attempt failed. In early November, the US dollar sank to Y80.21, its lowest level in fifteen years and near the post-World War II record low of Y79.75.
Capital expenditure, which accounts for 16 per cent of GDP, rose 0.9 per cent on quarter, slowing from a revised 1.5 per cent gain in the previous quarter.
Despite some easing recently in price falls, entrenched deflation continues to weigh on business investment by pushing up real borrowing costs and prompting consumers to delay purchases as they wait for prices to fall further. That is one reason firms have remained reluctant to spend more despite generally strong earnings, economists say.
The GDP deflator, the broadest measure of price trends, was minus 1.6 in the quarter, compared with a revised minus 2.1 in the July-September period.
One bright spot during the period was real estate. Private residential investment increased 3.0 per cent on quarter, higher than a revised 1.8 per cent rise in the previous period. Discounted mortgage rates and a government purchasing incentive scheme for environmentally friendly properties have encouraged more people to buy homes despite anaemic growth in income."
Martian
Senior Member
According to U.N., China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008
To verify for yourself that China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008, click on the link to U.N. statistics:
Under the category of "GDP and its breakdown at current prices in US Dollars," select "All countries for all years - sorted alphabetically."
After opening the spreadsheet, look at cell #691 for "China (manufacturing)." Look at the two right-most columns on the spreadsheet. It will show that China's manufacturing sector produced $1.87 trillion dollars in 2008 and $2.05 trillion in 2009.
In comparison, look at cell #3471 for "United States (manufacturing)," the U.N. data show that U.S. manufacturing accounted for $1.79 trillion dollars in 2008 and $1.78 trillion in 2009.
The U.N. data conclusively show that China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008.
To verify for yourself that China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008, click on the link to U.N. statistics:
Under the category of "GDP and its breakdown at current prices in US Dollars," select "All countries for all years - sorted alphabetically."
After opening the spreadsheet, look at cell #691 for "China (manufacturing)." Look at the two right-most columns on the spreadsheet. It will show that China's manufacturing sector produced $1.87 trillion dollars in 2008 and $2.05 trillion in 2009.
In comparison, look at cell #3471 for "United States (manufacturing)," the U.N. data show that U.S. manufacturing accounted for $1.79 trillion dollars in 2008 and $1.78 trillion in 2009.
The U.N. data conclusively show that China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008.
Schumacher
Senior Member
Re: According to U.N., China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008
China trying to make further inroads into Latin America.
"China goes on the rails to rival Panama canal
Proposed Colombian railway linking Atlantic and Pacific coasts would make it easier for China to export goods to Americas
China is proposing to build a rail link to rival the almost century-old Panama canal, the Colombian president has said.
The 220km rail connection would connect Cartagena, on the northern Atlantic coast of Colombia, with its Pacific coast – making it easier for China to export its goods through the Americas and import raw materials such as coal.
"It's a real proposal … and it is quite advanced," Juan Manuel Santos told the Financial Times (subscription).
Although the link would be almost three times the length of the canal that cuts through neighbouring Panama, the president added: "The studies [the Chinese] have made on the costs of transporting per tonne, the cost of investment, they all work out.
"I don't want to create exaggerated expectations, but it makes a lot of sense … Asia is the new motor of the world economy."
The success of the planned connection would depend on costs as well as speed. Sceptics point out the canal is undergoing a $5.25bn (£3.3bn) expansion to double its capacity.
Panama also has a rail route, built almost 60 years before the canal, which is more expensive than the waterway for shippers but faster.
Rodolfo Sabonge, the Panama Canal Authority's vice-president for research, told the FT he was more concerned about competition from US rail freight services, which allow Asian exports to reach the east coast from west coast ports.
A shipping executive told the newspaper that moving containers on to and off the link at either end would probably cost $200 each in addition to $100 fees for the rail transport. In comparison, fees for the canal are around $100 a container.
....................................................."
China trying to make further inroads into Latin America.
"China goes on the rails to rival Panama canal
Proposed Colombian railway linking Atlantic and Pacific coasts would make it easier for China to export goods to Americas
China is proposing to build a rail link to rival the almost century-old Panama canal, the Colombian president has said.
The 220km rail connection would connect Cartagena, on the northern Atlantic coast of Colombia, with its Pacific coast – making it easier for China to export its goods through the Americas and import raw materials such as coal.
"It's a real proposal … and it is quite advanced," Juan Manuel Santos told the Financial Times (subscription).
Although the link would be almost three times the length of the canal that cuts through neighbouring Panama, the president added: "The studies [the Chinese] have made on the costs of transporting per tonne, the cost of investment, they all work out.
"I don't want to create exaggerated expectations, but it makes a lot of sense … Asia is the new motor of the world economy."
The success of the planned connection would depend on costs as well as speed. Sceptics point out the canal is undergoing a $5.25bn (£3.3bn) expansion to double its capacity.
Panama also has a rail route, built almost 60 years before the canal, which is more expensive than the waterway for shippers but faster.
Rodolfo Sabonge, the Panama Canal Authority's vice-president for research, told the FT he was more concerned about competition from US rail freight services, which allow Asian exports to reach the east coast from west coast ports.
A shipping executive told the newspaper that moving containers on to and off the link at either end would probably cost $200 each in addition to $100 fees for the rail transport. In comparison, fees for the canal are around $100 a container.
....................................................."
Spartan95
Junior Member
Re: According to U.N., China has been the world's largest manufacturer since 2008
That's the development trend of nations. US used to be the world's largest manufacturer as its economy develops in earlier years. And before that, it was UK.
Thus, in 20, 30 or 40 years time, India or Brazil is likely to be the world's largest manufacturer as PRC moves up the value chain in economic development.
That's the development trend of nations. US used to be the world's largest manufacturer as its economy develops in earlier years. And before that, it was UK.
Thus, in 20, 30 or 40 years time, India or Brazil is likely to be the world's largest manufacturer as PRC moves up the value chain in economic development.
Martian
Senior Member
China has collateral on U.S. debt
"But if the tension between the US and China gets really nasty, we cannot rule out the possibility of the US refusing to honour all or part of its foreign debts. A future Congress might claim they were unfairly accumulated – that China abused its trading relationship with the US – and therefore should be repaid at a discount."
----------
My reply in the comment section:
This is a flawed idea. China has collateral in the form of U.S. foreign direct investment in China. If the United States renege on its debt to China, the Chinese government will retaliate and seize sufficient American factories (e.g. GM plants), service businesses (e.g. KFC), and intellectual property (e.g. Coca Cola bottling plants producing secret Coke formula) to offset the reneged debt.
"But if the tension between the US and China gets really nasty, we cannot rule out the possibility of the US refusing to honour all or part of its foreign debts. A future Congress might claim they were unfairly accumulated – that China abused its trading relationship with the US – and therefore should be repaid at a discount."
----------
My reply in the comment section:
This is a flawed idea. China has collateral in the form of U.S. foreign direct investment in China. If the United States renege on its debt to China, the Chinese government will retaliate and seize sufficient American factories (e.g. GM plants), service businesses (e.g. KFC), and intellectual property (e.g. Coca Cola bottling plants producing secret Coke formula) to offset the reneged debt.
Last edited:
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
That would be rather stupid even entertaining it. Why? Because I wouldn't be surprised that could possibly happen especially if someone like Sarah Palin took office. China isn't the only ones carrying US debt. China could sell-off starting a panic on world markets and say bye-bye to the US economy. And then there's war after that.
^You mean like there was a war after the USSR collasped?
I honestly doubt even if that happened it would get that far, where would the financing come in the event a war should start? Considering that the entire US economy for the last decade has had to rely entirely on foreign creditors to stay afloat, how will a supposedly capitalist nation work for free?
I honestly doubt even if that happened it would get that far, where would the financing come in the event a war should start? Considering that the entire US economy for the last decade has had to rely entirely on foreign creditors to stay afloat, how will a supposedly capitalist nation work for free?
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
War in the sense that Americans will blame China for collapsing their economy regardless of how they just robbed China for a trillion dollars. The state of the US economy is a result of bad policies by the US government. But how they cover that up is blaming everyone else but themselves. I agree that it will probably never come to that because like I said it was stupid just to entertain it without thinking it going to affect more than China.