Chinese Economics Thread

[hullopilllw]

What i don't understand is what can australia get by bending over backwards to appease the us and antagonize China their no 1 trading partner and the main buyer of its exports? Already australia economy is in the worst shape since ww2 due to covid19, don't they need China more than ever?

maybe the australian politicians did not realise that ? nor do they feel that way. the ongoing speeches seem to indicate they think the problem can be easily redemied by shifting the export to other trade partners like korea japan and india.

the best way to not be dependent on china is to stop selling to china. uh.

 

[Petrolicious88]

What i don't understand is what can australia get by bending over backwards to appease the us and antagonize China their no 1 trading partner and the main buyer of its exports? Already australia economy is in the worst shape since ww2 due to covid19, don't they need China more than ever?

It’s pretty simple. Australia is THE strongest ally of the US, has been for decades. It’s the only country to send troops to every single US lead wars in the last few decades.

Australia was the first to Ban Huawei after talking to the US. It was the first to call for an investigation on the origin of Coronavirus; supposedly right after PM Morrison met with Pompeo.

Yes Australia depends on China for exports, but the US argument to Australia is simple. Security trumps economic interdependence. You first need security before prosperity. And a Chinese hegemony in ur region is a threat to your security. Just look at how the US treats the smaller Latin American countries in our region. Imagine what will happen to you under a Chinese hegemony.

This is the exact argument US is making to all the SEA nations as well.

 

[xiabonan]

It’s pretty simple. Australia is THE strongest ally of the US, has been for decades. It’s the only country to send troops to every single US lead wars in the last few decades.

Australia was the first to Ban Huawei after talking to the US. It was the first to call for an investigation on the origin of Coronavirus; supposedly right after PM Morrison met with Pompeo.

Yes Australia depends on China for exports, but the US argument to Australia is simple. Security trumps economic interdependence. You first need security before prosperity. And a Chinese hegemony in ur region is a threat to your security. Just look at how we the US treats the smaller Latin American countries in our region. Imagine what will happen to you under a Chinese hegemony.

This is the exact argument US is making to all the SEA nations.

But it doesn't sell well in SEA, despite SEA nations being smaller, weaker, less developed, closer to China and has more disputes with China and less dependent on China than Australia. China-SEA trade has been growing enormously for years, and SEA is now China's top trade partner as a region. No SEA country banned Huawei (except maybe Vietnam), but Vietnam has a bitter history with China. Even that, Vietnam supports China's HK national security law. China and Vietnam can cooperate where possible. China-Myanmar, China-Cambodia, China-Thailand relations are better than ever, and the Philippines basically discarded the South China Sea arbitration which it has won. The Singaporean PM has voiced his support for China on numerous issues and called for China-US cooperation in the region. China-Malaysia, China-Indonesia relations are also good.

Australia claims that it has vital interests in the South China Sea because the safety of trade routes is essential to its national security and prosperity. Australia wants to protect its trade with China, from China. It somehow feels insecure that if China dominates the SCS its trade will suffer - does this mean China will attack its own merchant ships on the SCS hence making Australia suffer?

 

[xiabonan]

Australia's insecurity is understandable, but misplaced and will only work to undermine its security. Working with China is the best way to remain safe and prosperous in the region. Australia and Australians get enormously nervous when they see signs of "Chinese influence" in their country, and see everything as somehow controlled or related to the CCP. It's become a paranoia by this point. With this kind of irrational fear, it's only going to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Accept that China's going to have its fair share of influence over Australia, and make peace with that fact. Neither China nor the CCP is interested in changing the political regime of Australia, what for? As long as China could continue to access cheap Australian primary resources, there's no reason why it wants to change Australia, or any country's political system for that matter.

China only asks others to not want to change its own regime, is that a big ask? For the US and countries like Australia, they seem unable to accept that China, a country with a different race, history, religious outlook, and regime, can be successful and prosperous, and this is a threat to them, why? Who said that Caucasian, Christian, Western liberal capitalist democracies are the only path for mankind and only countries which fit this description can be No.1?

 

[Petrolicious88]

But it doesn't sell well in SEA, despite SEA nations being smaller, weaker, less developed, closer to China and has more disputes with China and less dependent on China than Australia. China-SEA trade has been growing enormously for years, and SEA is now China's top trade partner as a region. No SEA country banned Huawei (except maybe Vietnam), but Vietnam has a bitter history with China. Even that, Vietnam supports China's HK national security law. China and Vietnam can cooperate where possible. China-Myanmar, China-Cambodia, China-Thailand relations are better than ever, and the Philippines basically discarded the South China Sea arbitration which it has won. The Singaporean PM has voiced his support for China on numerous issues and called for China-US cooperation in the region. China-Malaysia, China-Indonesia relations are also good.

Australia claims that it has vital interests in the South China Sea because the safety of trade routes is essential to its national security and prosperity. Australia wants to protect its trade with China, from China. It somehow feels insecure that if China dominates the SCS its trade will suffer - does this mean China will attack its own merchant ships on the SCS hence making Australia suffer?

That’s true. But note that none of SEA nations want the US to leave the region either.

The US is pushing them to choose sides, and eventually many of them may have to choose. You can have either security or economic interdependence with China, but you can’t have both. And in a conflict, if you remain neutral, we will then consider you our enemy.

One more note about Security vs Economic Interdependence. Prior to WWI, France and Germany also had extensive economic interdependence with each other. Yet the policies of each country still pushed them to war, twice in 25 years.
Thus, US and China economic interdependence is not a guarantee that war will not happen. Countries will always eventually choose security over everything else. SEA nations will have to choose. US corporations that has extensive business ties in China will have to choose as well.

 

[Tyler]

It’s pretty simple. Australia is THE strongest ally of the US, has been for decades. It’s the only country to send troops to every single US lead wars in the last few decades.

Australia was the first to Ban Huawei after talking to the US. It was the first to call for an investigation on the origin of Coronavirus; supposedly right after PM Morrison met with Pompeo.

Yes Australia depends on China for exports, but the US argument to Australia is simple. Security trumps economic interdependence. You first need security before prosperity. And a Chinese hegemony in ur region is a threat to your security. Just look at how the US treats the smaller Latin American countries in our region. Imagine what will happen to you under a Chinese hegemony.

This is the exact argument US is making to all the SEA nations as well.

China should take back Taiwan soon, for national security reasons.

 

[hullopilllw]

That’s true. But note that none of SEA nations want the US to leave the region either.

The US is pushing them to choose sides, and eventually many of them may have to choose. You can have either security or economic interdependence with China, but you can’t have both. And in a conflict, if you remain neutral, we will then consider you our enemy.

One more note about Security vs Economic Interdependence. Prior to WWI, France and Germany also had extensive economic interdependence with each other. Yet the policies of each country still pushed them to war, twice in 25 years.
Thus, US and China economic interdependence is not a guarantee that war will not happen. Countries will always eventually choose security over everything else. SEA nations will have to choose. US corporations that has extensive business ties in China will have to choose as well.

You got it the wrong way. Security relation is away built on top of economic relation. And relation doesnt have tp be dependency. Without a good economic relation, there is no way a nation will be your military partner. If you cant even put food on the table, how can you be concerned about having military adventurism elsewhere?

That is why Australia is now in a dilemma, she wants geopolitical and economic containment of China, but then her economy is dependent on China.

For ASEAN nations, they have stated very clearly that they have no real military tension with China, they may have disputes over the islands in SCS but they are not letting it affect their primary linkage which is economic relation. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines has made that very clear, in fact, their economies are getting more and more integrated into the Chinese as we speak.

The narrative of "You can have either security or economic interdependence with China" is a western narrative that is without an ounce of understanding for the asian mindset and historical relation. France and Germany belong to the western hemisphere, don't impose their historical trend onto Asians.

Just as Mahathir said recently :

MOHAMAD: No, I don’t think so. I think—we have traded with China for nearly two thousand years—(laughter)—exchanging forest products with Le Ko Wei (ph) and things like that. But China never conquered us. We have relations with Europe. The Portuguese came to Malaysia in 1509. Two years later, they came and conquered us. So I always feel that I’m safer with China than with Europe. (Laughter.)

 

[BMEWS]

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[hullopilllw]

It’s pretty simple. Australia is THE strongest ally of the US, has been for decades. It’s the only country to send troops to every single US lead wars in the last few decades. Strongest ideological and military ally YES. But economic ally No much longer, when the trade deal US forced on China is now adversely affecting Australia's export.

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Australia was the first to Ban Huawei after talking to the US. It was the first to call for an investigation on the origin of Coronavirus; supposedly right after PM Morrison met with Pompeo.

Yes Australia depends on China for exports, but the US argument to Australia is simple. Security trumps economic interdependence. You first need security before prosperity. And a Chinese hegemony in ur region is a threat to your security. Just look at how the US treats the smaller Latin American countries in our region. Imagine what will happen to you under a Chinese hegemony.

Wrong. Australia didn't prosper due to security. No nation including China, ever threatened nor show an intention to invade Australia. The huge economic growth Australia overwhelmingly enjoyed over the 2 decades is provided by none other than China, to such scale that if there is no China, you can expect the Australia economy to be smaller today. China is the one factor that allows Australia to grow through all the last 3 world economic recession, no one else can make up for it. Chinese hegemony in the region is only going to make Australian elites feel depressed now that they can no longer feel all superior bullying Indonesians and Papuas into signing ore deals that only favour Australian companies. All players in South East Asia have no problem accepting China as the biggest player, it is only Australia that makes it into such huge matter simply because she is the only one that hadn't seen thousand years of strong chinese influence in this region before british brought them along.

This is the exact argument US is making to all the SEA nations as well.
Which is not going well. By threatening to sanction Indonesia if they proceed to receive Su-35, labelling Singapore as currency manipulator just because ethic chinese has a habit of high saving, stirring human rights nonsense in Myanmar, intervention in Thailand politics, punishing those that dare to impose digital/data tax on Google/Spotify/Apple on sales proceed of digital service. Asians are not dumb to fall for the same shit American diplomats push for repeatedly, esp Indonesians whose Freeport Gold Mine is robbed off by the US. We used to be quiet simply because the economic relation with US is of utmost importance, but our primary trading partner now is no longer US.

 

[hullopilllw]

Australia's insecurity is understandable, but misplaced and will only work to undermine its security. Working with China is the best way to remain safe and prosperous in the region. Australia and Australians get enormously nervous when they see signs of "Chinese influence" in their country, and see everything as somehow controlled or related to the CCP. It's become a paranoia by this point. With this kind of irrational fear, it's only going to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Accept that China's going to have its fair share of influence over Australia, and make peace with that fact. Neither China nor the CCP is interested in changing the political regime of Australia, what for? As long as China could continue to access cheap Australian primary resources, there's no reason why it wants to change Australia, or any country's political system for that matter.

China only asks others to not want to change its own regime, is that a big ask? For the US and countries like Australia, they seem unable to accept that China, a country with a different race, history, religious outlook, and regime, can be successful and prosperous, and this is a threat to them, why? Who said that Caucasian, Christian, Western liberal capitalist democracies are the only path for mankind and only countries which fit this description can be No.1?

The fear is their own doing, no one is to be blamed. Australians have never bothered to try and understand non-western cultures in their own term. Those that truly understand China will have no fear.

Just as Justin Marques said : The west thinks of itself as the most cosmopolitan of all cultures. But it is not. In many ways, it is the most parochial, because for 200 years, the West ha been so dominant in the world that it's not really needed to understand other cultures, civilizations. Because, at the end of the day, it could, if necessary by force, get its own way.

This TED talk was from 2011, you can see how deeply he understand the western vs chinese mindset and how it plays out today.

start at 13:55