Chinese Economics Thread

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
China should take back Taiwan soon, for national security reasons.

Nah nah. Time is on the side of the one rising. It is the US that is running out of time.

China can at anytime in the future hold a wechat referendum asking 1.5b chinese whether they should still regard taiwan island as theirs, once the vote goes through the ccp will have no choice but to carry out the will of 1.5b Chinese to repatriate the island back. And it will drown out whatever voice of the measly 24m chinese in taiwan island has.
 

BMEWS

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nah nah. Time is on the side of the one rising. It is the US that is running out of time.

Dollar crash or civil war this year... not to mention it remains to be seen how COVID develops in the US come winter
Trump is not going to give up election without a fight... goons already deployed to all major cities... its gonna get interesting... throw in a possible US attack on SCS and all bets off the table...
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
Dollar crash or civil war this year... not to mention it remains to be seen how COVID develops in the US come winter
Trump is not going to give up election without a fight... goons already deployed to all major cities... its gonna get interesting... throw in a possible US attack on SCS and all bets off the table...

Any form of military conflict initiated by the US will lead to ASEAN giving up on American totally. Probably Duderte will be the first one to demand them to get out of SCS.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
The narrative of "You can have either security or economic interdependence with China" is a western narrative that is without an ounce of understanding for the asian mindset and historical relation. France and Germany belong to the western hemisphere, don't impose their historical trend onto Asians.

Well this is the dominating narrative between US-China relations. It’s not about western or eastern mindset.

Economic interdependence did not prevent war between France and Germany prior to WWI. It most likely won’t for US and China, or China and Taiwan, despite extensive economic interdependence with each other. If it did, we wouldn’t have the current conflict today. If US China conflict is about trade, it would have been solved already. If China and Vietnam dispute can be solved by more economic trade, it would have been solved already.

Conflict can still happen even if it means having huge economic consequences between countries. Because the politics are such that the politics and securities will always trump economic interdependence.

This is the central dilemma in the territorial disputes between China, India, US, Vietnam, Philippines, and also between the overall US -China relationship.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
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Welp.

India has lots of wasted potential. The large population of youth will be wasted if they’re not educated and given opportunities.

If India becomes like China GDP in 20 years, Indians will have less kids and suffer same problem like China in 50 years. Lots of uneducated and unskilled older people being supported by a small youth population.
 

SimaQian

Junior Member
Registered Member
... And a Chinese hegemony in ur region is a threat to your security. Just look at how the US treats the smaller Latin American countries in our region. Imagine what will happen to you under a Chinese hegemony.

This is the exact argument US is making to all the SEA nations as well.

I think this maybe a wrong argument.

For the last 2000 years of history China, 18 of the last 20 centuries, China and India were the largest economies on the planet
until those western imperialists undermine both India and China.


Here
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and here
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1.) Back in year 14 AD, the Romans imported so much China stuff that Roman silver went to China and nothing going back to Rome
https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/6z11p0
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2.) Most of global gold and silver in 16th and 19th centuries went to China

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3.) And we should never forget, British solution to their money problems was opium.
They wanted Chinese people stoned and dumb to get their money back.

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4.) And the US trade deficit
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5.) And the latest, just few days ago
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See history never repeats but it often rhyme.


Yet China (or India for this matter) seldom use their money and resources
to impose their will on weaker countries. China use it to protect the trade routes. That is why during the Tang dynasty (year 800),
they were forced to subjugate parts of Central Asia to control the trade routes going to Constantinople and Europe in general.

Why there is a Great Wall of China in first place? Walls are basically to keep other people out. In this case, the northern barbarians.
Those barbarians just plunder and pillage those poor farmers in northern China and several month long journeys trade caravans from Xian to Samarkand or Constantinople.

If China was a hegemon by then, it could have conquered back Northern Vietnam in 13th or 14th century (Norther Vietnam was part of China for almost a 1000 years. They rebelled and gain independence.). Or conquered the Korean peninsula. Why they didnt?
Well the Chinese emperors in the Ming dynasty in 14th century realize how costly to wage war very far away.
Instead they focus in defence, they strengthen the Great Wall, because they thought northern invaders still pose a great threat. And it really was.


Now in the 21st century, the norther barbarians are already subdued, the Great Wall has lost its function.
Yet the barbarians are now coming from the sea thousands of kilometers away. China never sent a single warship to their shores.
Yet these barbs are coming to China shores waving their flags and say it is freedom of navigation.
That is why its time for China to put a great wall on the sea to keep these barbarians out.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The Australian are smug they think China won't dare to cut trade with her because of China's dependence on Aussie iron and coal export and geographically close but thing might change in the future
The four new VLOC terminals approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) are in Rizhao, Yantai and Lanshan in Shandong province, and Sanduao in Fujian province, according to Chinese metals market data specialist Mysteel Global, and add to seven already operating in China.

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Australia’s spot as China’s top source for iron ore under threat as new mega ports open door for Brazil, Africa
  • Very large ore carriers (VLOC) used by Brazilian mining giant Vale, as well as miners in Africa, can carry more than twice the cargo of normal ships
  • Australia shipped a record amount of iron ore to China in June, with total iron ore exports accounting for a quarter of the country’s overall goods exports
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    Published: 4:30am, 25 Jul, 2020
    Updated: 4:30am, 25 Jul, 2020

    The total value of all Australian iron ore exports in the fiscal year to June 2020 rose to over A$100 billion (US$71 billion), representing more than a quarter of Australia’s total goods exported. Photo: Fleetmon
The total value of all Australian iron ore exports in the fiscal year to June 2020 rose to over A$100 billion (US$71 billion), representing more than a quarter of Australia’s total goods exported. Photo: Fleetmon
Australia’s share of China’s iron ore imports may be at risk following the opening of four new ports that can operate berths for extra-large ships, opening up new possibilities for greater imports from Brazil and Africa.

Very large ore carriers (VLOC) are bigger than many skyscrapers and can carry more than twice the cargo of normal iron ore transport ships, up to 400,000 tonnes, meaning they reduce transport costs and delivery time.
This will increase competition for Australian mines, which have so far benefited from their closer proximity, with China accounting for nearly 90 per cent of all of
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so far this year.

The four new VLOC terminals approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) are in Rizhao, Yantai and Lanshan in Shandong province, and Sanduao in Fujian province, according to Chinese metals market data specialist Mysteel Global, and add to seven already operating in China.
 
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