Launched and its called Instagram Reels.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Launched and its called Instagram Reels.
They can sell shares of it, and Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple and Google will all bid for it --- and they will all fight for it like crazed bulls because it is the most valuable mobile and social property right now. Bytedance gets a lot of money, stoking the coals while its hot, and bring the money back to China.
Look, this kind of social-mobile company depends on advertising revenue otherwise, you will be operating at a big loss. You are not going to get much advertising revenue with the global and US economy right now and for the foreseeable future.
Well it is no surprise really, it will happened sooner or later. It just the covid 19 has made it happen sooner.
But it us all symbolic really. Because the real power lies with US dollars as the world currency status. Also in the financial institutions such as the world bank and IMF. Both must have US and European chief as per their "tradition" lol.
I remember the financial crisis in 2008. And how China bail them out, yet USA resisted reform to give China a bigger voice and vote on both institutions. So even turn USA knows that's where the real power lies.
Well, someone made the calculation. And I can find it at moment.
But I'll try and explain here.
It us assumed that USA will decrease this year by 10% And increase next e years at 3% per year. That's roughly equals 10% (I know its not the same it should be 1.03^3. But for sake of simplicity and easy, let's called it 10 %) that means USA should be back where they are now.
Meanwhile China to grow this year and next three years averaging out at 5% per year should give it at least 20% over the next 4 years (again I know we need you compound it, but let's use it for simplicity) that mean China's economy is going to be 1/5 bigger than it is today.
Today China is $14T at 2019. 1/5 would add another $3T. That's $17T. Still way short of US $21T. So how is it possible? It is further assumed that the RMB will have appreciate as countries and China are moving away from the dollar world and the massive stimulus USA has to dampened it's growth and the dollar's attractiveness. It is assumed RMB will increase in value by 20% by year 4. This would lead to $17T x 1.2. And there you have it.
And we are being very conservative about China's growth rate, and bullish about US growth rate. But like all things about the future, you have to take it with a large dose of salt.
Out of topic but Bolsonaro became president after a coup and illegal imprisonment of Lula the socialist candidate who was favorable to win elections. Something similar happened in Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela. An ongoing masterplan
and Bolivia where Evo Morales won the election fairly.
A Bitter Election. Accusations of Fraud. And Now Second Thoughts.
A close look at Bolivian election data suggests an initial analysis by the O.A.S. that raised questions of vote-rigging — and helped force out a president — was flawed.
Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia, left the country following a contentious election.Credit...Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times
By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Maria Silvia Trigo
- June 7, 2020
As the preliminary vote count began, on Oct. 20, 2019, tensions ran high. When the tallying stopped — suddenly and without explanation — then resumed again a full day later, it showed Mr. Morales had just enough votes to eke out a victory.
Amid suspicions of fraud, protests broke out across the country, and the international community turned to the Organization of American States, which had been invited to observe the elections, for its assessment.
The organization’s statement, which cited “an inexplicable change” that “drastically modifies the fate of the election,” heightened doubts about the fairness of the vote and fueled a chain of events that changed the South American nation’s history. The opposition seized on the claim to escalate protests, gather international support, and with military support weeks later.
Now, , using data obtained by The New York Times from the Bolivian electoral authorities, has found that the Organization of American States’ statistical analysis was itself flawed.
The conclusion that Mr. Morales’s share of the vote jumped inexplicably in the final ballots relied on incorrect data and inappropriate statistical techniques, the researchers found.
“We took a hard look at the O.A.S.’s statistical evidence and found problems with their methods,” said Francisco Rodríguez, an economist who teaches Latin American studies at Tulane University. “Once we correct those problems, the O.A.S.’s results go away, leaving no statistical evidence of fraud.”
Mr. Rodríguez conducted the study with Dorothy Kronick, an expert on Latin American politics at the University of Pennsylvania, and Nicolás Idrobo, a doctoral student at the same university who is the co-author of a textbook on advanced statistical methods. Their study is a working paper that has not yet been peer reviewed.
Counting votes in La Paz in October 2019.Credit...David Mercado/Reuters
To be sure, the authors said their analysis focused only on the O.A.S.’s statistical analysis of the voting results, and does not prove that the election was free and fair. In fact, there were a lot of documented problems with the vote.
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That was to prevent China from getting lithium from Bolivia to make batteries for its EV to export to the world...
and Bolivia where Evo Morales won the election fairly.
A Bitter Election. Accusations of Fraud. And Now Second Thoughts.
A close look at Bolivian election data suggests an initial analysis by the O.A.S. that raised questions of vote-rigging — and helped force out a president — was flawed.
Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia, left the country following a contentious election.Credit...Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times
By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Maria Silvia Trigo
The election was the most tightly contested in decades: Evo Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, was running for a fourth term, facing an opposition that saw him as authoritarian and unwilling to relinquish power.
- June 7, 2020
As the preliminary vote count began, on Oct. 20, 2019, tensions ran high. When the tallying stopped — suddenly and without explanation — then resumed again a full day later, it showed Mr. Morales had just enough votes to eke out a victory.
Amid suspicions of fraud, protests broke out across the country, and the international community turned to the Organization of American States, which had been invited to observe the elections, for its assessment.
The organization’s statement, which cited “an inexplicable change” that “drastically modifies the fate of the election,” heightened doubts about the fairness of the vote and fueled a chain of events that changed the South American nation’s history. The opposition seized on the claim to escalate protests, gather international support, and with military support weeks later.
Now, , using data obtained by The New York Times from the Bolivian electoral authorities, has found that the Organization of American States’ statistical analysis was itself flawed.
The conclusion that Mr. Morales’s share of the vote jumped inexplicably in the final ballots relied on incorrect data and inappropriate statistical techniques, the researchers found.
“We took a hard look at the O.A.S.’s statistical evidence and found problems with their methods,” said Francisco Rodríguez, an economist who teaches Latin American studies at Tulane University. “Once we correct those problems, the O.A.S.’s results go away, leaving no statistical evidence of fraud.”
Mr. Rodríguez conducted the study with Dorothy Kronick, an expert on Latin American politics at the University of Pennsylvania, and Nicolás Idrobo, a doctoral student at the same university who is the co-author of a textbook on advanced statistical methods. Their study is a working paper that has not yet been peer reviewed.
Counting votes in La Paz in October 2019.Credit...David Mercado/Reuters
To be sure, the authors said their analysis focused only on the O.A.S.’s statistical analysis of the voting results, and does not prove that the election was free and fair. In fact, there were a lot of documented problems with the vote.
Lying press New York Times. Nobody cares that they admit their error AFTER the rigged election took place. They built consent for it, and shit for brains liberals all fell in line because MUH DEMOCRACY.
Next time Evo should live up to the Western caricature and ban the right wing opposition from government. Its clear they are a bunch of snakes who want to sell the country out to the West.
Bill Bishop: "What does it say about Xi's vision of opening the economy when the multinationals that attended the symposium Xi chaired for business leaders Monday were told when invited that they could only send ethnic Chinese executives?"