Chinese Economics Thread

C

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
jimmyjames30x30 said:
I couldn't disagree more. First of all, the US is a superpower. The core power of a superpower is its brain power. Your rhetoric reeks of Japanese kamikaze fanaticism. The US didn't pick fight with China out of a whim. The US pick fight with China the same reason it fought British Empire, Spain, Germany, Japan and USSR. This is a strategic move that the US will eventually make, regardless of what China does. The US didn't pick a fight with China out of opportunism, this decision to fight China is based on the fundamental principle of US foreign policy and global strategy. The US will need to suppress any emerging challenger power regardless of who they are. Any endeavor of trying to scare and discourage the US from aggression is as stupid as Japanese attack on pearl harbor. The Japanese thought that a surprise attack will force the US to the negotiating table and make the US opt for neutrality. They totally misread the US.

China, on the other hand, knows very well what the US bottom line is. Therefore, China does NOT in any way perceive this conflict/competition with the US to be a short war. This will be a long march, a war of attrition. Both nation has enough resources to regroup even after a huge defeat. If China somehow obtain a early decisive victory, what do you think will happen? Let me tell you, it will antagonize and provoke the US more and more: this will only aggressively force the US to drastically change its own tactic and approach, even revolutionize its method of attack, or undergo drastic social reform and changes to increase its effectiveness.

China can only win this war, if it can effectively draw the US into a lengthy and complex mess of a draining pit. This draining pit drains time. The worst thing China can do is go give the US a rude awakening. China need to keep the US in a divided and chaotic state of mind, China also need to keep the US to put time and resources in meaningless quarrels the like of "forced technological transfer", "espionage", "human rights", etc. It needs to keep the US in a constant state of internal debate over whether the deal is good enough for the US.

The worst thing that can happen, is for China to give the US a rude awakening, and effective allow the US to transform itself into a war time command economy, with a right-wing fascist collectivist system whose ideology is hell-bent on destroy China and the Chinese as how Hitler wants to destroy Bolshevism and Jews.
Click to expand...
Yes, China should not make any hawkish action to give US and it's allies legit claim for sanctions or worse. What China needs is more time and divisions in US and it's allies while continue to caltivate close engagement with rest of the world.
 
J

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chish said:
Yes, China should not make any hawkish action to give US and it's allies legit claim for sanctions or worse. What China needs is more time and divisions in US and it's allies while continue to caltivate close engagement with rest of the world.
Click to expand...

You think too small. The US wants to destroy the China threat, this is a huge endeavor. Sanctions couldn't even destroy Iran, North Korea and Russia. Sanction is nothing to China. In fact, China would rather the US resorts to sanction, instead of what I said earlier.

China's biggest nightmare would be for the US to turn into a wartime command economy, and mobilizes an unlimited End War with China. So far, the overwhelming majority of the US public and elites, don't want to sacrifice their comfort and "freedom" lifestyle, in order to fight an end war with China. This is to China's advantage. They talk big, but in order to put their action where their mouth is, they would have to sacrifice a lot of their lifestyle and comfort.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Yesterday at 7:25 AM
Jura said:
numerous anti-Trump quotes inside
Do the numbers in Donald Trump’s ‘phase one’ trade deal work? US critics worry they don’t
so follow the link
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also checked the press release
China, U.S. agree on text of phase one trade deal
Xinhua| 2019-12-13 23:07:32
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Click to expand...
and in the most recent development
Trade war: China halts introduction of new tariffs on US goods
  • Beijing holds fire on duties of 5 and 10 per cent that were set to take effect at noon on Sunday
  • Move comes after US also shelves new tariffs and agrees to halve some of those already in place

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the press release is
China suspends planned additional tariffs on some U.S. products
Xinhua| 2019-12-15 13:04:12
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Last edited:
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
jimmyjames30x30 said:
I couldn't disagree more. First of all, the US is a superpower. The core power of a superpower is its brain power. Your rhetoric reeks of Japanese kamikaze fanaticism. The US didn't pick fight with China out of a whim. The US pick fight with China the same reason it fought British Empire, Spain, Germany, Japan and USSR. This is a strategic move that the US will eventually make, regardless of what China does. The US didn't pick a fight with China out of opportunism, this decision to fight China is based on the fundamental principle of US foreign policy and global strategy. The US will need to suppress any emerging challenger power regardless of who they are. Any endeavor of trying to scare and discourage the US from aggression is as stupid as Japanese attack on pearl harbor. The Japanese thought that a surprise attack will force the US to the negotiating table and make the US opt for neutrality. They totally misread the US.

China, on the other hand, knows very well what the US bottom line is. Therefore, China does NOT in any way perceive this conflict/competition with the US to be a short war. This will be a long march, a war of attrition. Both nation has enough resources to regroup even after a huge defeat. If China somehow obtain a early decisive victory, what do you think will happen? Let me tell you, it will antagonize and provoke the US more and more: this will only aggressively force the US to drastically change its own tactic and approach, even revolutionize its method of attack, or undergo drastic social reform and changes to increase its effectiveness.

China can only win this war, if it can effectively draw the US into a lengthy and complex mess of a draining pit. This draining pit drains time. The worst thing China can do is go give the US a rude awakening. China need to keep the US in a divided and chaotic state of mind, China also need to keep the US to put time and resources in meaningless quarrels the like of "forced technological transfer", "espionage", "human rights", etc. It needs to keep the US in a constant state of internal debate over whether the deal is good enough for the US.

The worst thing that can happen, is for China to give the US a rude awakening, and effective allow the US to transform itself into a war time command economy, with a right-wing fascist collectivist system whose ideology is hell-bent on destroy China and the Chinese as how Hitler wants to destroy Bolshevism and Jews.
Click to expand...
The smartest thing I read on internet today.
 
C

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Jura said:
interestingly, "opportunities to the United States" offered inside
China-U.S. trade deal bullish news for both countries, rest of world: Chinese FM
Xinhua| 2019-12-15 12:25:54
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This phase-1 is not a signed deal yet. There is still no agreement to details yet as both seem to have different interpretations or expectations. The best this phase-1 does is a temporary ceasefire to escalation. Both sides trying to buy time before the trade dispute cycle starts all over again.
 
T

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you take a look inside the tesla model 3 motor inside, they are mostly supplied by Korea.

Shanghai Tesla also plan to use LG battery for model 3.

Wait the minutes, Tesla plant built in Shanghai , why is all those important components come from Korea??

Majority of customers buying Tesla model 3 will be Chinese not korean.

Korean very aggressive to get into Tesla supply chain, not only motor components, batteries but also supplying alot of the automation equipment in Tesla US factory

Tesla Shanghai built in China China needs to actively get into Tesla supply chain!
 
F

Franklin

Captain
The problem with the US trade deficit is not with China or any other country but with the US itself. Unless they start to realize that it won't change. Despite the many tarrifs the US trade deficit has grown larger and US industrial production has fallen.

The US-China trade deal leaves a large American deficit and a permanent collision course

Unacceptably large U.S. trade deficits with China will continue in the absence of Beijing’s firm commitment to balance the bilateral trade flows.
Trade spats will grind on, and so will political and security disputes as the U.S.-China strategic competition continues unabated.
Markets will have to take that in stride, focusing on the fact that asset prices are determined by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Looking at the latest U.S.-China trade numbers, one wonders how the agreement announced last week could lead to an acceptable balance of bilateral trade accounts.

China’s surplus on its U.S. goods trade in the first ten months of this year was $294.5 billion, and amounted to 40% of America’s total trade gap.

During the same period, Beijing slashed U.S. exports to China 14.5% to $87.6 billion. By contrast, Chinese goods sales to the U.S. were more than four times larger at $382.1 billion.

In spite of that, reports indicate that Beijing promised to increase — over the next two years — its purchases of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion.

If that’s all Beijing is offering, its exports to the U.S. would have to be halved from their current annual rate of $462.4 billion to reach a meaningful narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit with China.

How likely is that?

The sad truth is that the U.S. will continue to run huge wealth (and technology) transfers to China financed by America’s increasing net foreign debt that will show as net foreign assets on China’s books.

Other big issues — such as intellectual property protection, forced technology transfers, illegal industry subsidies and exchange-rate management — are appearing as declaratory statements rather than clearly defined legal arguments. Their enforcement mechanism takes the form of bilateral consultations at technical levels that could escalate to top echelons in case of serious disagreements.

It is obvious that political expediency took precedence over an agreement to close the U.S. trade gap with China as a matter of American national security.

That clearly transpires from official statements.

Washington is emphasizing China’s promises of larger purchases of farm and other American products, even though reports of $200 billion of likely Chinese imports from the U.S. over the next two years would still leave huge American trade deficits.

China is not mentioning any such promises. Chinese state media is pointing out that Beijing concluded a “trade agreement based on the principle of equality and mutual respect,” and that the expansion of China’s markets will lead to increasing imports of goods and services from abroad “including the United States under the WTO rules as well as market rules and business principles.”

All that sounds like an armistice rather than a credible end to the trade war.

Beijing would do well to realize that large and systematic imbalances on its U.S. trade cannot continue, regardless of who wins American presidential elections next year. Those imbalances are a provocation for a country experiencing a soaring public debt of more than $23 trillion, sharply deteriorating current budget conditions, and a calamitous net foreign investment position of -$10.56 trillion.

It should not be difficult for Beijing strategists to understand that their U.S. trade problem is a major roadblock to any meaningful improvement in the two countries’ deeply troubled relations.

For Beijing, it should all be very simple: buy more, much more from the U.S., or slash rapidly and radically extravagantly large sales to the U.S.

Why China did not move in that direction early enough to prevent a serious deterioration of its U.S. ties is part of a geopolitical calculus Beijing may wish to reconsider.

Investors should watch trade numbers for reliable signs of the real value of last week’s agreement.

Meanwhile, Washington will continue to praise its achievements in an election year, even though trade deficits with China will remain far too large to ignore. Trade spats will grind on. And so will other political and security issues the U.S. will pursue in its increasing strategic competition with China.

Any silver lining for financial markets? Yes, a friendly Federal Reserve, because asset prices will always be determined by the course of monetary policy.
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
86 pages wow
China faces ‘huge challenge’ in living up to US trade promises as it ‘needs to buy US$300bn worth of goods in next two years’
  • Beijing’s response reflects caution about possible missteps ahead while Americans give details of its pledges to boost imports
  • Government adviser says Chinese appear less excited that the Americans about the ‘phase one’ agreement, which commit it to buying ‘lots more agricultural goods’

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if interested
 
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