If Navarro was working for China, he would have more than one imaginary friend.
The Trump got himself into this position by using Amazon as a recruitment tool for top officials.
That is such a ridiculous thing no intelligence agency could possibly have predicted to set up a long term plant for.
As for the trade deal, it’s not really a trade deal as the western MSM is claiming, it’s just a temporary cease fire.
Look at the timing and who said what.
December 15 is right smack in the middle of Christmas shopping season. The orders would have been made months ago, with contracts signed and deposits paid and zero chance of finding alternative sources of goods outside of China since all factories would have all their capacity planned and used up for this most busy of shopping seasons months ago.
That means that if Trumps tarriffs kick it, it will only be American retailers and consumers who will feel the immediate hit to their bottom line and wallets. Chinese manufacturers are not going to feel a thing (unless they choose to help absorb part of the tarriff hit, but a. They could not be compelled to do so, and b. Even if some chose to do so, it will be on an individual basis and only in extremes, like if their American customer would go out of business otherwise), because as every single economic expert has said from the start, it is the American side that pays Trump’s tarriffs when goods arrive in American ports.
With Presidential elections just around the corner next year, even Trump would have to out-Trump himself to think a massive 15% price hike to most Americans’ Christmas shopping bills would help his re-election chances.
Then let’s look at the wording and who said it, although the MSM is trying desperately to spin this as some kind of American victory with emphasis on how Trump can snap tarriffs back in the event of ‘Chinese non-compliance’, that is really just a red herring, since either side could re-instate or even levy additional new tarrifs any time they bloody well want.
That’s like a boxer who is sitting on his backside on the canvas saying, ‘I can get back up and start throwing punches again any time I want’.
Now let’s look at what the agreement covers; the US has agreed to massively roll back existing tarrifs on top of stopping the threatened new round. All the American side has said is that China has agreed to buy farm products.
No mention of intellectual property; Chinese industrial planning and policy; or any of the other myriad of ridiculous American demands from the start of the trade war.
In fact, if we think back to the start, buying more American farm products was what China offered at the very beginning to help narrow the trade deficit.
So after all this drama, America has dropped all their ridiculous demands and settled for what China has offered from the very beginning.
How does anyone see a Chinese capitulation happening here?
What more, we have zero actual figures on just how much American farm goods China is to purchase; at what date and at what price.
With Trumps character and temperament, as well as the domestic political pressures he is under, I have zero doubt that he would be shouting from the rooftops the exact details of this deal if it was in America’s favour. He would be the first to brag all over Twitter about how many billions he just made the American people if his deal was actual advantageous.
It would not surprise me at all if China is buying the surplus farm goods the American government was forced to buy from American farmers to bail them out, and at a significant discount.
It is also noteworthy that China has said precisely nothing through all of this.
Normally, when two sides sign a deal or ceasefire, both heads of states sign together. But so far it is only Trump who has signed.
So the more you look at this, the more this looks like an unilateral ceasefire on the American side, to avoid the massive holes these new proposed tarriffs would shoot in America’s own feet; with America coming back to China’s opening offer of farm goods purchases as a tiny figleaf to make it look like China has actually also offered up something to avoid it looking like a total capitulation on Trump’s side.
China is not stupid, and could easily have built in insurance clauses to any purchase agreement.
With those in place, a big purchase of US pork would make good economic and political sense for China given the swine flu issues in China, and with Chinese New Year also not far off, such a move could reverse the massive pork price inflation seen in China this year just in time for Chinese New Year.
Actually, the information available so far shows little real gain for the US. A real victory for the US will need to consist of at least one of two things:
1. To structurally dismantle the state capitalism of China, which means that China can no longer subsidize and command its own core industry. This will mean that China will no longer have the ability to conduct gigantic project like the Made-In-China-2025, or OBOR, etc.
2. To force China's central bank (the People's Bank of China) to become a private institution like the Fed, and thus strips the CCP Politburo of its power to set monetary policy of China.
Anything else is simply too insignificant or strategically irrelevant, and isn't worth starting a trade war or ending it. If Trump really decide to make this deal an effective ending point of the trade war, it would look to me like it's a decisive victory for China. This is because what concession China is willing to “give” is actually things that benefits China. China have always welcomed US agricultural products and high tech manufactured goods. And after the Power of Siberia pipeline goes into commission, it's actually an opportune moment for China to open the door for importing US LNG. All of these are working in China's interest.
The only potential risk I see from information so far, is the opening financial market to US financial capitals. The US have extensive knowledge in manipulating the financial market, so much so that their ability in the financial market could very well be weaponized. However, since it is the Chinese mainland we are talking about, it could mean that it will take years for the US to get the gist of how things work in China's financial market. And this Financial War will be the fought on China's home field. So it is both risky and safe. This is because Chinese decision maker believe that a Financial War is inevitable between China and the US. Therefore it is much better if China can draw US "financial forces" into Chinese homeland for this upcoming Financial War, instead of having to fight the US "financial forces" in a faraway foreign market.
I am really impressed how the Chinese team is able to get away with what they have now. Or it could simply be that Trump doesn't want this to drag on for too long.
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