Chinese Economics Thread

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
WTF is this supposed to mean - the Chinese side does not want to disclose the terms of the phase 1 trade deal? Or it's actually the American side that wants to keep them under wraps?



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Xi better gets it straight - there will be repercussions if he attempts to keep the Chinese public in the dark from such important issues.

To be honest, there is no way that the Chinese public will be kept in the dark from the details of the deal, if the deal is unfavorable to the strategic and core interest of China. Think about it, if Xi's team is in such a bad position that they have to beg the US to not disclose the details, it would have mean that China have capitulated. If China have capitulated, the deal would have been signed already. If such a deal is extremely favorable to the US, do you think that Trump could keep his mouth shut about it in the upcoming election?

If the deal is so strategically favorable to the US that it actually succeeds in caging all of China's potential to ever challenge the US, the US administration will need to worry about negative backlash from the Chinese public that could simply thwart the deal. If this is the case, the US will use ALL the media power they have to paint a picture that leads the public into believing the opposite of a extremely good deal (for the US). And such a media maneuver will take at least a couple of years to complete, given the current political climate (of all-out sino-american confrontation).

If the US has gained everything they want in the deal, they would paint the picture of an "equal and mutually beneficial agreement", they would emphasize how much the US has "backed down and compromised" because they are "genuinely hoping for a good relation with China".
 

supercat

Major
To be honest, there is no way that the Chinese public will be kept in the dark from the details of the deal ...

On second thought, the Trump negotiation team cannot keep the American public in the dark either. I guess I worried too much. There will be either no deal, or if there is a deal, the terms of the deal will be made public.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Preliminary means they're still negotiating and aren't going to agree before Dec 15th. Trump didn't want to see the stock market tanking. Trump blinked and he doesn't want anyone to see that he did. Trump is keeping it under wraps because it falls "long" of everything he said he was going after China for. The next round of tariffs or "the rest of China's exports" were going to hurt the US more because they were going to include all the US corporations that outsourced to China. Trump has been avoiding them. Does this mean the trade war is over? No. All this means is if Trump wins re-election he won't have to worry about being voted into office a third term and he might just go scorched earth on China and the world. Like Trump has honor and will follow an agreement?
 
Yesterday at 8:09 PM
Tuesday at 8:12 AM
updating with
Trade war: China remains tight-lipped on talks as December 15 tariff deadline looms
  • China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng says only that ‘the two teams are keeping in close communication’
  • Lead negotiators from China and US are expected to speak by phone before Sunday, when new tariffs are due to be implemented, says former US trade official

so follow the link
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if interested
now
Trump Approves U.S.-China Trade Deal to Halt Dec. 15 Tariffs

December 12, 2019, 8:30 PM GMT+1 Updated on December 13, 2019, 4:28 AM GMT+1
  • Deal includes promise by China to buy more U.S. farm goods
  • Terms have been agreed, but legal text yet to be finalized
and it says to me 'You've reached your free article limit.' so I can' read
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but I skimmed over
Trade war: US and China said to agree on ‘phase one’ deal, with new US tariffs set aside
  • US President Donald Trump gives the settlement his approval, Bloomberg reports
  • US tariffs of 15 per cent on US$160 billion of Chinese goods, scheduled for Sunday, will be postponed, news outlets say

follow the link
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if interested, I guess I'll wait until next week
 
let me speculate an info about possible deal reached China, because:
Clipboard595.jpg


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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Yesterday at 8:09 PM
now
Trump Approves U.S.-China Trade Deal to Halt Dec. 15 Tariffs

December 12, 2019, 8:30 PM GMT+1 Updated on December 13, 2019, 4:28 AM GMT+1
  • Deal includes promise by China to buy more U.S. farm goods
  • Terms have been agreed, but legal text yet to be finalized
and it says to me 'You've reached your free article limit.' so I can' read
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

but I skimmed over
Trade war: US and China said to agree on ‘phase one’ deal, with new US tariffs set aside
  • US President Donald Trump gives the settlement his approval, Bloomberg reports
  • US tariffs of 15 per cent on US$160 billion of Chinese goods, scheduled for Sunday, will be postponed, news outlets say

follow the link
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if interested, I guess I'll wait until next week
Yeah, the only thing that actually means anything is Trump halts tariffs. There is nothing in there, from China promises to buy "more" agriculture, to China promises IP protections, that means anything definable in law or economics.
 
Last edited:

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Trump is using this rhetoric too much, he’s going through the pump n dump cycles too quickly, i’m betting he made some hedge fund friends through this and made some good commission along the way

pumping the market with trade deal news will work until it doesn’t
 
Yesterday at 8:22 AM
let me speculate an info about possible deal reached China, because:
Clipboard595.jpg


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while now
Trade war breakthrough: US and China reach phase-one deal
  • The agreement covers a wide range of issues, including intellectual property protection, technology transfers and agricultural purchases
  • As an immediate result, a new 15 per cent tariff on around US$160 billion of Chinese goods, scheduled to come into effect on Sunday, was cancelled

so follow the link
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if interested, also kind of conciliatory sounding Glob. Times
Phase one trade deal a step forward, a new beginning
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
I begin to wonder whether Peter Navarro is actually working for China. He is playing Trump to sabotage the US economy by not having a deal and continue with tariffs.

If Navarro was working for China, he would have more than one imaginary friend.

The Trump got himself into this position by using Amazon as a recruitment tool for top officials.

That is such a ridiculous thing no intelligence agency could possibly have predicted to set up a long term plant for.

As for the trade deal, it’s not really a trade deal as the western MSM is claiming, it’s just a temporary cease fire.

Look at the timing and who said what.

December 15 is right smack in the middle of Christmas shopping season. The orders would have been made months ago, with contracts signed and deposits paid and zero chance of finding alternative sources of goods outside of China since all factories would have all their capacity planned and used up for this most busy of shopping seasons months ago.

That means that if Trumps tarriffs kick it, it will only be American retailers and consumers who will feel the immediate hit to their bottom line and wallets. Chinese manufacturers are not going to feel a thing (unless they choose to help absorb part of the tarriff hit, but a. They could not be compelled to do so, and b. Even if some chose to do so, it will be on an individual basis and only in extremes, like if their American customer would go out of business otherwise), because as every single economic expert has said from the start, it is the American side that pays Trump’s tarriffs when goods arrive in American ports.

With Presidential elections just around the corner next year, even Trump would have to out-Trump himself to think a massive 15% price hike to most Americans’ Christmas shopping bills would help his re-election chances.

Then let’s look at the wording and who said it, although the MSM is trying desperately to spin this as some kind of American victory with emphasis on how Trump can snap tarriffs back in the event of ‘Chinese non-compliance’, that is really just a red herring, since either side could re-instate or even levy additional new tarrifs any time they bloody well want.

That’s like a boxer who is sitting on his backside on the canvas saying, ‘I can get back up and start throwing punches again any time I want’.

Now let’s look at what the agreement covers; the US has agreed to massively roll back existing tarrifs on top of stopping the threatened new round. All the American side has said is that China has agreed to buy farm products.

No mention of intellectual property; Chinese industrial planning and policy; or any of the other myriad of ridiculous American demands from the start of the trade war.

In fact, if we think back to the start, buying more American farm products was what China offered at the very beginning to help narrow the trade deficit.

So after all this drama, America has dropped all their ridiculous demands and settled for what China has offered from the very beginning.

How does anyone see a Chinese capitulation happening here?

What more, we have zero actual figures on just how much American farm goods China is to purchase; at what date and at what price.

With Trumps character and temperament, as well as the domestic political pressures he is under, I have zero doubt that he would be shouting from the rooftops the exact details of this deal if it was in America’s favour. He would be the first to brag all over Twitter about how many billions he just made the American people if his deal was actual advantageous.

It would not surprise me at all if China is buying the surplus farm goods the American government was forced to buy from American farmers to bail them out, and at a significant discount.

It is also noteworthy that China has said precisely nothing through all of this.

Normally, when two sides sign a deal or ceasefire, both heads of states sign together. But so far it is only Trump who has signed.

So the more you look at this, the more this looks like an unilateral ceasefire on the American side, to avoid the massive holes these new proposed tarriffs would shoot in America’s own feet; with America coming back to China’s opening offer of farm goods purchases as a tiny figleaf to make it look like China has actually also offered up something to avoid it looking like a total capitulation on Trump’s side.

China is not stupid, and could easily have built in insurance clauses to any purchase agreement.

With those in place, a big purchase of US pork would make good economic and political sense for China given the swine flu issues in China, and with Chinese New Year also not far off, such a move could reverse the massive pork price inflation seen in China this year just in time for Chinese New Year.
 
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