Chinese Economics Thread

Rising China

Junior Member
:china::china::china:

Fang Says Yuan Internationalization May Be Faster Than Expected
September 16, 2010, 10:52 AM EDT

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The internationalization of the Chinese yuan may be “quicker than everybody expects” and Shanghai will be one of the world’s top three financial centers by 2015, said Fang Xinghai, director general of the Chinese city’s financial services office.

Rising trading volumes on Shanghai’s stock exchange, bond and commodity markets will help improve its global financial status, Fang said at a forum in Shanghai today. Former Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said yesterday in Toronto that closer integration between markets in mainland China and Hong Kong was vital to more quickly promoting the international use of the yuan, according to a transcript obtained today by Bloomberg News.
China’s central bank ended the yuan’s two-year dollar peg on June 19 after holding the currency stable during the global financial crisis to aid exporters. Shanghai is home to China’s currency and bond trading platform, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, also known as CFETS.

Luo Jun, Judy Chen. Editors: Andrew Janes, Sandy Hendry
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Luo Jun in Shanghai at [email protected].
 

Spartan95

Junior Member
That's not actually my argument.

Dude, my point (to state it more explicitly) is that the riots in Jakarta during the mid-90s targeted the Chinese community because they were treated as the scapegoats for the financial crisis (although they were not the cause of it).

Now, why is this the case? Was there ever any official explanation as to why the riots took place in Chinese areas?

Perhaps the Chinese community there were indeed "viewed with suspicion" by segments of the population (particularly those who started the riots)?

You may not like the deduction, but that doesn't mean that it is not possible (or exist in reality).
 

Quickie

Colonel
Dude, my point (to state it more explicitly) is that the riots in Jakarta during the mid-90s targeted the Chinese community because they were treated as the scapegoats for the financial crisis (although they were not the cause of it).

Now, why is this the case? Was there ever any official explanation as to why the riots took place in Chinese areas?

Perhaps the Chinese community there were indeed "viewed with suspicion" by segments of the population (particularly those who started the riots)?

You may not like the deduction, but that doesn't mean that it is not possible (or exist in reality).

As to why only the ethnic chinese communities are targeted, the reasons are very much more complicated than what can be explained by the passing remark in that short sentence, which I think tends toward blaming the chinese communities themselves. We seem to disagree on the appropriateness of the words used. So let it be.
 

Rising China

Junior Member
:china::china::china:

No to yuan pressure: China central bank adviser
(AFP)

19 September 2010

BEIJING — An adviser to China’s central bank said Sunday that unlike Japan in the 1980s, Beijing would not cave in to foreign pressure to let its exchange rate appreciate, a financial news website said.

Li Daokui’s comments come after US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called for Beijing to address trade distortions by letting the yuan strengthen.
‘China as it stands now is not Japan in 1985, it is not a country that completely relies on external demand,’ he said at the China CEO Forum taking place in Beijing, in a speech transcribed on finance.qq.com.
‘We will not appreciate the yuan solely because of external pressure.’
Li appeared to refer to the 1985 Plaza Accord, where Japan agreed to let its yen currency appreciate against the dollar.
China pledged in June to loosen its grip on its currency, but Geithner said Thursday that despite the move, the yuan’s value was ‘essentially’ unchanged in the past two years because of ‘very substantial’ intervention by authorities.
Since June the yuan has appreciated about 1.6 percent against the greenback and gained about 0.7 percent this week ahead of Geithner’s testimony to Congress.
Critics accuse Beijing of keeping its currency — and thereby its exports — artificially cheap, which it denies.
Li said this kind of pressure would not abate in the coming decade.
‘Protectionism against China and India will continue to increase and pressure on the RMB currency will also continue,’ he said, according to the transcript.
 

Martian

Senior Member
WTO places Taiwan 16th in export rankings

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"According to the WTO’s latest statistics, Taiwan was the world’s 16th largest exporter and 17th largest importer in the first half of 2010." (Photo: Taipei. Taiwan's economic capital city.)

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"WTO places Taiwan 16th in export rankings
* Publication Date:09/17/2010
* Source: Taiwan Today
* By Audrey Wang

Taiwan advanced one spot to become the world’s 16th largest exporter and 17th largest importer in the first half of 2010, according to statistics released Sept. 16 by the World Trade Organization.

According to the WTO’s short-term merchandise trade statistics, Taiwan’s exports in the first six months of the year surged by 49.1 percent from a year ago to US$131.92 billion, overtaking the position of Spain in the economies surveyed.

Taiwan’s imports soared to US$119.98 billion, posting the largest annual gain of 64.8 percent among the top 30 importing countries.

The Bureau of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Economic Affairs said the encouraging results can be credited to the country’s robust recovery after the global financial crisis in 2008.

Among all regions worldwide, mainland China continued to top the lists with both the highest exports and imports in the world. South Korea jumped two spots and three spots in the imports and exports categories to finish at No. 9 and No. 7, respectively.

The BOFT said South Korea’s wide variety of export items helped the country recover faster than Taiwan, whose major exports are concentrated more densely in the information and communication technology sector.

Now that Taiwan has signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with mainland China, it will be better positioned to enter free trade agreements with its major trading partners, the BOFT noted.

The ECFA and the expected FTAs should both help Taiwan’s trade volume continue to expand and the nation should move up further in the global trade rankings next year, the BOFT said. (HZW)

Write to Audrey Wang at [email protected]"

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"Taiwan's rapid economic growth in the decades after World War II has transformed it into an advanced economy as one of the Four Asian Tigers.[9] This economic rise is known as the Taiwan Miracle. It is categorized as an advanced economy by the IMF and high-income economy by the World Bank. Its technology industry plays a key role in the global economy.[10] Taiwanese companies manufacture a large portion of the world's consumer electronics, although most of them are now made in their factories in mainland China.[11]"
 

Martian

Senior Member
Huawei to set up $500m plant in India

huawei.jpg

Huawei India

huaweis7tablet.jpg

Huawei S7 tablet

huaweishowsofflowcostan.jpg

Huawei Android smartphone

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"Huawei to set up $500m plant
Shalini Singh, TNN, Sep 20, 2010, 01.12am IST

NEW DELHI: Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer Huawei has tipped the telecom equipment security debate strongly in its favor by deciding to set up a local manufacturing base in Chennai with an investment of $500 million. This will be the first large investment in telecom manufacturing since telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran left office as telecom minister in May 2007.

Confirming the development, A Sethuraman, executive director, Huawei India, told TOI that this multi-product facility, which is to be constructed across an area of 30,000 sq ft near Sriperumbudur will become operational before the end of December. According to him, the investment will be staggered over the next 5 years.

Tamil Nadu is often called India's Shenzen after Maran attracted a host of telecom manufacturing investments to the state from 2005 onwards, including Nokia, Ericsson, LG, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Alcatel Lucent, Nortel and others.

Huawei already has an R&D centre in India which is its biggest outside China, employing 2,000 people. Its India operations have been drawing overall investments of $150 million/year over the past decade. According to the company, it has a total employee base of 6,000 people of which 95% are Indians, while creating indirect employment for 20,000 additional people through its partner ecosystem.

Huawei sells equipment in over 100 countries and claims to serve 46 of the world's top 50 telecom operators. Its global turnover in 2009 was $30 billion of which India sales accounted for roughly 7%. Huawei's turnover for 2010 is projected to hit $36 billion, though India failed to generate any significant contracts until just a month ago owing to home ministry fears that Chinese equipment makers were placing malaware and spyware in their equipment. While all foreign telecom equipment orders were practically suspended over these concerns, Chinese firms faced the real threat of an outright ban, despite the fact that most of India's telecom operators already use Chinese equipment.

On August 3, the ToI had reported that Huawei had turned this threat into a huge opportunity by becoming the first firm to concede to the home ministry's demand to share its source codes with them. Apart from its inherent price advantage, this helped Huawei score heavily against its competitors who refuse to share their source codes.

Huawei's decision to manufacture locally will give it a further edge as it is aimed at checkmating not only its big European and US competitors but also removing any shadow boxing opportunities for India's security agencies. With local manufacturing and investments, the government will have greater access to Huawei's manufacturing operations but also much less room for taking refuge in conspiracy theories. This will force the Indian government to now take a clear stand on how it will deal with its security risk perceptions relating to Chinese equipment makers.

"The manufacturing facility will provide a time-to-market advantage to our customers, faster return on investments and future-proofing of technology or removing obsolescence by enabling compatibilities and smoother integration," says Sethuraman."
 

Martian

Senior Member
Port of Shanghai is the world's busiest

shanghaiport335191775k.jpg

Port of Shanghai is the world's busiest

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"Shanghai port's container throughput ranks first in the world
13:25, September 21, 2010

"Due to the strong recovery of China's imports and exports, the Port of Shanghai's total container throughput in the first eight months of 2010 stood at more than 19 million standard containers; making it the largest container port in the world.

According to statistics, the Port of Shanghai's container throughput stood at more than 2.6 million standard containers in August 2010; up nearly 21 percent compared to the same period last year and setting a new monthly record. As the two core ports of the Shanghai International Shipping Center are under construction, the throughput of the Yangshan Deepwater Port and Waiguoqiao Port kept increasing.

In August, the Yangshan Port Area's total throughput amounted to 960,800 standard containers; up almost 37 percent compared to the same period last year; including an underwater throughput of 380,400 standard containers, up nearly 9 percent from the previous year. The Waigaoqiao Port Area completed a throughput of more than 1.3 million standard containers; up more than 14 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.

Benefiting from the high-speed growth in August, the port's total throughput has exceeded that of Singapore (19.01 million standard containers) and has taken first place in the world for the first time.

The number of ships and people entering and exiting China in the two ports of Shanghai both reached their highest levels. According to statistics of the Yangshan Frontier Inspection Station, the Yangshan Deepwater Port received and sent 805 ships in August; up nearly 11 percent compared to that of July; and received and sent 18,001 people; up nearly 18 percent compared to that of July.

By People's Daily Online"
 
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Martian

Senior Member
Brazil's huge new port highlights China's drive into South America

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A Chinese delegation visits the Acu port in Sao Joao da Barra, Brazil. China is on track to become Brazil's No. 1 investor in 2010, with Chinese investment in Brazil topping $20 billion in the first half of this year. (Getty)

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"Brazil's huge new port highlights China's drive into South America
Investments guarantee Chinese access to soy, oil and other badly needed resources

* Tom Phillips in Sao Joao da Barra
* guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 15 September 2010 21.02 BST

The 'super port' in Sao Joao da Barra is the largest port investment in Brazil and will have capacity for the largest ships in the world.

Blades slicing through the morning heat, the helicopter rose from the tarmac and swept into a cobalt sky, high above Rio's Guanabara Bay.

It powered north-east over deserted beaches, dense Atlantic rainforest and fishing boats that bobbed lazily in the ocean below. Then finally, 80 minutes on, the destination came into view: a gigantic concrete pier that juts nearly two miles out into the South Atlantic and boasts an unusual nickname: the Highway to China.

Dotted with orange-clad construction workers and propped up by dozens of 38-tonne pillars, this vast concrete structure is part of the Superporto do Acu, a £1.6bn port and industrial complex that is being erected on the Rio coastline, on an area equivalent to 12,000 football pitches.

Reputedly the largest industrial port complex of its type in the world, Açu is also one of the most visible symbols of China's rapidly accelerating drive into Brazil and South America as it looks to guarantee access to much-needed natural resources and bolster its support base in the developing world.

When Acu opens for business in 2012, its 10-berth pier will play host to a globetrotting armada of cargo ships, among them the 380-metre long Chinamax – the largest vessel of its type, capable of ferrying 400,000 tonnes of cargo.

Millions of tonnes of iron ore, grain, soy and millions of barrels of oil are expected to pass along the "Highway" each year on their way east, where they will alleviate China's seemingly unquenchable thirst for natural resources.

"This project marks a new phase in relations between Brazil and China," Rio's economic development secretary, Julio Bueno, said during the recent visit of about 100 Chinese businessmen to the port complex, which is being built by the Brazilian logistics company LLX and should receive billions of dollars of Chinese investment.


This new phase of engagement with Brazil and South America, is part of China's "going out strategy" – an economic and, some say, diplomatic push for Chinese companies, many of them state-run, to invest abroad, snapping up access to minerals, energy and food by pouring the country's colossal foreign reserves into overseas companies and projects.

China is expected to overtake Japan as the world's second largest economy this year and may already be the world's greatest energy consumer. Now it is set to become Brazil's top foreign investor, with its companies plowing $20bn into the country in the first six months of 2010, compared with $83m in 2009. A recent study by Deloitte predicted that Chinese investments in Brazil could hit an average of about $40bn a year between now and 2014, with companies throwing money at sectors ranging from telecommunications, infrastructure and farming, to oil, biofuels, natural gas, mining and steel manufacturing.

"Relations with Brazil in all areas have entered a new era," Qiu Xiaoqi, China's ambassador in Brazil, recently told the state news agency Xinhua.

The surge in China's South American spending is not just a Brazilian phenomenon. Ecuador has already signed around $5bn of bilateral deals with China this year, including $1.7bn to help build a hydro-electric dam and $1bn investments for oil exploration and infrastructure projects.
That compared with Chinese investment of just $56m in 2009.

Chinese companies have sunk $1.4bn into mining operations in Peru this year, while in April Hugo Chávez announced that the Chinese, already major sponsors of Venezuelan oil exploration, had agreed to open a $20bn credit-line for the "Bolivarian revolution".

Michael Klare, author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, a book about the growing tussle for global resources, described today's China as "the shopaholic of planet Earth".

"The Chinese authorities understand that to sustain the country's continued growth, they will have to ensure that its industries are provided with adequate supplies of energy, minerals, and other basic raw materials," he said. But the "going out" strategy went far beyond business transactions, he added.

"They seek to fashion a multipolar world in which no single power – read the United States – plays an overwhelmingly dominant role. To this end, they seek to bolster ties with rising regional powers like Brazil and South Africa."

In Sao Joao da Barra, the city nearest to Acu and one of Rio state's poorest regions, the Chinese presence is being felt even before Brazil's Highway to China is complete.

Keen to impress, LLX staff at the Açu port lay on hot water and Mandarin interpreters for visiting Chinese dignitaries. Sao Joao da Barra's town hall, meanwhile, has started offering free Mandarin lessons to locals interested in working with the wave of Chinese guests that is anticipated.

"You should see a 10-year-old boy saying, 'I understand … the Chinese are coming and when the Chinese industries come I want to work for them and if I speak Mandarin I'll have a competitive advantage on the others'," beamed Eike Batista, the billionaire entrepreneur behind the superport and one of the most vocal cheerleaders for Chinese advances into Brazil. "[It is] wonderful."

Leonardo Gadelha, LLX's CFO, said during a recent tour of the port: "This is part of a Chinese strategy of going to the market more and more. They are already a very considerable presence in Africa and we are now going through this moment in Brazil."

The Highway to China lay "in the middle" of this blossoming relationship with China, he said, adding: "We are betting that … this will continue growing."

Not all Brazilians, or indeed western governments, share such enthusiasm.

"There are many in Washington who worry about China's growing presence in Africa and Latin America and claim that this poses a threat to America's long-term strategic interests," said Klare, noting, however, that the US' "fixation" with Afghanistan and the war on terror meant there had been virtually no reaction.

In Brazil meanwhile China's arrival has prompted cries of neo-colonialism. "The Chinese have bought Africa and now they are trying to buy Brazil," the prominent economist Antônio Delfim Netto complained in a recent interview with the Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper, warning that it was a "grave mistake" to allow a foreign state to buy "land, minerals [and] natural resources" from another sovereign power.

Batista, Brazil's richest man, rejected such criticism, saying: "The association between Brazil and China is a two-way highway." Chinese companies such as Wuhan Iron and Steel had committed to helping build a $5bn steel mill at the port complex, rather than always shipping out primary resources to process at home, he pointed out. "You want to get three tonnes of raw iron ore, [so] produce one tonne of steel in Brazil," he said. "That philosophy is sinking in and is great for both sides."

Neither would Chinese companies be allowed to flood the complex with hordes of foreign workers as had happened in Africa, said Gadelha, the CFO.

"If it was up to them they would bring lots of Chinese workers as they are used to doing," he admitted. "[But] Brazil's legislation is very strict in this sense."

Batista suggested that rather than complaining about China's courtship of Brazil, western powers should urge their own companies to pay more attention to the region themselves.

"In the last 15 years or so the [American and European] CEOs have stopped coming here and that is why they are a little bit behind," he said. "We are pushing European companies and saying: 'You're not really understanding what is happening in Brazil'."

"Don't put Brazil in the same bag as our neighbours," he added. "We are not Central America. We are not Venezuela. We are not Argentina."

• This article was amended on 17 September 2010. The original referred to the 380-metre wide ChinaMax. This has been corrected."
 
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Martian

Senior Member
U.S. proportion of China's trade will diminish

chinatoptradepartners1.jpg

U.S. constituted 13.9% of China's trade in 2007.

The United States has fallen into second place on China's list of major trade partners for 2007 and the trend of diminishing relative importance is likely to continue.

Firstly, the developing world is growing much faster than the developed world. With larger economies, the developing world will conduct more trade with China and the U.S. proportion will shrink.

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"BRIC Nations to Drive Global Growth
Brazil is forecast to grow 5.5%- 6% this year, China 10%, India 7%, Russia 5.5%
May 19, 2010"

Secondly, China has signed free-trade-agreements (i.e. FTA) with ASEAN (e.g. CAFTA) and Taiwan (e.g. ECFA). CAFTA came into effect on January 1st of this year and trade between China and ASEAN has increased dramatically. The China-Taiwan ECFA came into effect on September 12, 2010 and it should also significantly boost future trade.

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"China-Malaysia trade surges 67% in H1

Sep. 24, 2010 (China Knowledge) - China, the world's largest exporter, saw its bilateral trade with Malaysia soared 67% year on year to US$35 billion in the first half of this year, due to the launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area at the beginning of this year, said Pi Qing, the Chinese consulate-general, in Kuching, East Malaysia, sources reported.
...
In the first half of this year, trade value between China and the ASEAN countries rose 55% year on year to US$136.5 billion. China's exports to the ASEAN jumped 45% to US$64.6 billion during the period, while its imports from these countries grew 64% to US$71.9 billion."

Thirdly, China is growing economically at 8 to 10% a year. As the manufacturing center of the world, China's economic growth requires raw materials. However, the United States is not a major exporter of commodities. Hence, China's economic boom is benefiting areas like Australia, Brazil, and Africa. By increasing imports from commodity exporting nations, those nations grow wealthy and will have the money to buy more goods from China.

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"Australia enjoying economic boom
By Wayne Cole, Reuters
Last Updated: September 22, 2010 4:13am

SYDNEY - Australia is in the midst of a modern gold rush as voracious Asian demand for resources stokes a boom in mining investment that should last years; setting it far apart from much of the rest of the developed world."

Fourthly, the American consumer is heavily in debt and "tapped out." There won't be sustained significant growth in American demand for China's products for many years to come.

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"20 Signs That The American Consumer Is Now Completely Tapped Out
Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse | Sep. 15, 2010, 10:09 AM
...
The truth is that living on credit for decades has caught up with us as a nation. Americans are absolutely drowning in mortgage debt, car loans, credit card debt and student loan debt. As wages have stagnated, credit has enabled many of us to pursue the American Dream and to live far beyond our means, but that doesn't last forever. Now tens of millions of Americans are completely and totally tapped out. But without the return of the voracious American "consumer" there is not going to be a full economic "recovery".

For decades, the American consumer has always returned with a vengeance. Continually expanding debt loads have fueled a level of prosperity that most of humanity only dreams of. But unfortunately, no debt bubble lasts forever.

Now the consumer debt bubble in America has started to pop, and many are wondering what is going to fuel the U.S. economy if American consumers are unwilling or unable to do it any longer."

What is one of the major implications of the diminishing American role in international trade? One important trend that we are likely to see is that other countries are satisfied with their economic growth and trade relationship with China. China's growing imports (e.g. imports "grew 64% to US$71.9 billion" from ASEAN in the first half of this year) and free-trade-agreements are spurring growth in their countries.

Increasingly, America will have to confront China alone with U.S. complaints and dissatisfaction. Ironically, China is the largest growing major export market for American products.

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"U.S. set to be a posse of one on China yuan at G20
Sun Sep 26, 2010 12:07pm EDT

* Geithner may stand alone on currency issue
* G20 host South Korea says yuan inappropriate topic
* U.S. administration tries to placate Congress
* China's economic clout silences critics

By Paul Eckert

WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner faces a lonely campaign to make China's currency a major issue at the next Group of 20 summit as would-be allies shrink from confronting Beijing."

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"China fastest-growing US overseas market: Geithner
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-09-17 10:02

WASHINGTON - US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday said that China was the fastest- growing major overseas market for the United States and the two countries had very significant economic interests in their relationship."

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"China Trade Surplus Narrows as Imports Jump
By BETTINA WASSENER
Published: September 10, 2010

HONG KONG — A surprisingly large increase in imports caused China’s trade surplus to narrow in August, data released Friday showed.
...
But economists were surprised by the size of the growth in China’s imports — up 35.2 percent from August 2009. That appeared to signal that domestic demand had rebounded despite Beijing’s efforts in recent months to rein in the pace of Chinese economic growth and to slow the inflationary pressures that had built up as a result."
 

Martian

Senior Member
Is China's Real Economy Already the Size of the U.S.?

Electricity is a good reflection of the real size of an economy. According to Lester Thurow (a famous economist and former dean at the MIT Sloan School of Management), electricity is a fundamental component of economic activity. The measurement of electricity consumption does not suffer from monetary exchange rate distortions caused by currency traders.

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1 World 17.480.000.000.000
2 United States 3.892.000.000.000
3 China 3.271.000.000.000
4 European Union 2.926.000.000.000
5 Japan 1.080.000.000.000
6 Russia 1.003.000.000.000
7 Germany 549.100.000.000

In 2009, China consumed almost as much electricity as the United States (i.e. 3,271 vs. 3,892 terawatt-hours). Using electricity consumption as the measurement standard, China's economy is already approximately the size of the U.S. economy.

Why do we think that China's economy will keep booming for the next ten years? China has been busy signing Free Trade Agreements (i.e. FTAs) with Southeast Asia and Latin America that come into effect this month. See
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and
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Based on new information, I need to amend the incorrect data in the following table on estimated Chinese power consumption.

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1 World 17.480.000.000.000
2 United States 3.892.000.000.000
3 China 3.271.000.000.000
4 European Union 2.926.000.000.000
5 Japan 1.080.000.000.000
6 Russia 1.003.000.000.000
7 Germany 549.100.000.000

Based on updated information, China's 2009 consumption of electricity was 3,643 terawatt-hours. This makes the claim even more compelling that China's economy is basically the size of the U.S. economy if they are measured by electricity consumption. It's 3,643 terawatt-hours vs. 3,892 terawatt-hours.

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"China's power consumption grows 6% in 2009
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2010-01-06 10:07:46

BEIJING, Jan. 6 (Xinhua) -- China's electricity consumption in 2009 grew 5.96 percent year on year to 3.643 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWhs), the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in a statement on its website Wednesday."
 
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