Chinese Economics Thread

One interesting thing to consider is why China has sent J-10 variants for the past three exercises. Su-27SK/J-11A is easy enough: they use the same radar and has the same general aerodynamics configuration as Vietnamese flankers. With the exception of the Gripen, which is employed by Thailand, no other South East Asian country uses delta-canard fighters. With the maturation of WS-10 engines, I wonder if China is trying to push J-10C exports to Thailand.

That came out quite a few months ago when I first published my H-20/stealth bomber piece as my first piece I wrote for the diplomat.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The national interest has this bad habit of republishing old articles and only mentioning a few paragraphs down that it's an old article from months or even years ago.



In any case, he cited my piece but ended up going on an entirely different trajectory, as well as adding in some details which I think many of us here would label as dubious or incorrect.
I kindly ask the Moderators proficient in the Chinese language to check what does this say
:
 

Quickie

Colonel
Wow...


Anyone has paid access?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

After 24 Hours, China Still Unaware of Calls Mentioned by Trump
Bloomberg News
August 27, 2019, 4:10 PM GMT+8
Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

China declined to confirm
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with the U.S. that President Donald Trump claimed happened over the weekend, during which Trump said China indicated it wanted to work toward a trade deal.

You've reached your free article limit.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Looks like the Chinese public is not as clueless to the trade war as the advocates for trade war would like to imagine.

The U.S. has some advantages, Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Its economy is 50 percent larger and relies less on imports and exports, "so the near-term pain will be greater for China," wrote Prasad, who is also a professor on trade policy at Cornell University.

I'm always amazed by how some of these experts made their calculation.

How is 21 Trillion 50% larger than 14 Trillion? Probably the same way that Trump did when he said the U.S. economy is twice as big as China's.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China defiant on Trump's trade war, but some fear it hurts them too
"If you don’t need our 1.4-billion people market, fine," said Dong Jian, a taxi driver in Beijing. "If we are being bullied we will fight back."

BEIJING — President Donald Trump may have struck a conciliatory tone in recent days, saying he was optimistic of making a deal to end his trade war with China. But on the streets of Beijing, the mood was mainly one of defiance at the tit-for-tat.

"We have never been afraid of anyone," said Yang Fang, who sells toy guns at a market in the city. He believes the trade war is "just an attempt by the U.S. to maintain its hegemony and stop China's development."


On Monday, Trump claimed
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, and that they "want to make a deal." However, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware of any calls between the nations.

The state-controlled China Daily newspaper said Tuesday that "China wants to make a deal, but that deal can only be reached based on equality and mutual respect."

190827-china-yuan-mc-938_1bbe009cc3da1dcaaa0145de15db99c0.fit-760w.JPG


A securities company in Beijing on Monday.Wang Zhao / AFP - Getty Images
Trump's comments,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, were an apparent pivot after last week saw the latest salvos fired between the world's two largest economies. Beijing announced new tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods in retaliation to Washington's own tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China.

In response, Trump tweeted that he would be hiking tariffs on a combined $550 billion of Chinese goods, and he also "ordered" U.S. businesses that deal with China to begin looking for alternatives. Experts say in reality such a drastic measure would be
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

NBC News spoke with people on the street Monday. Most of these interviews were conducted before Trump's comments at the G-7, though the president's words did not receive widespread coverage here.

Dong Jian, a taxi driver in Beijing, was among many who reacted defiantly to Trump's part in the eye-for-an-eye exchanges.

"If you don’t need our 1.4-billion people market, fine," he said, referring to China's status as the world's most populous country. "We don't like the trade war but if we are being bullied we will fight back."

"Remember you are only some 300 million, let’s see what happens to your soybeans," he added, a reference to U.S. agricultural imports.

190827-china-trade-mc-941-2_d1733544ac4be32ee3aa995c4716f0ba.fit-760w.JPG


Yang Fang, who sells toy guns in a Beijing market.Eric Baculinao
It's true that the trade war has at least the potential to cause pain for U.S. businesses and consumers.

New calculations
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
found if the new tariffs take effect as planned they will cost the average American household around $1,000. And the American Chamber of Commerce in China said some 75 percent of its members — who are U.S. companies and individuals operating in China —
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that the trade war is having a negative impact on their business.

But it is also causing pain for Chinese companies, such as textile exporters in Suzhou
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Overnight into Monday, China's currency, the yuan, sank to an 11-year low not experienced since the 2008 financial crisis.

China has lost 5 million jobs and two million manufacturing jobs due to the Trump Tariffs. Trumps got China back on its heels, and the United States is doing great.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Trump
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that China had lost "five million jobs" because of the trade war in the past year. He appeared to be referring to estimates by China International Capital Corp, a bank.

The U.S. has some advantages, Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Its economy is 50 percent larger and relies less on imports and exports, "so the near-term pain will be greater for China," wrote Prasad, who is also a professor on trade policy at Cornell University.

However, China may also have some benefits, such as its command economy, dominated by state-run enterprises, and one-party state that may be better equipped at stopping bad economic news from spreading among its people.
China's Commerce Ministry denounced the latest U.S. moves as "unilateral, protectionist bullying and extreme pressurizing" and warned that the U.S. will have to "eat its own bitter fruit."

Jennifer Jiang, a college student, agreed with the official line.

"The bigger loser in a trade war will be the Americans, especially low-income Americans, because they will be paying more for their needs," she said.

She added that "here in China, we don't really feel the effects of trade war, we have everything," she said, pointing to the well-stocked shelves in a grocery store.

190827-china-trade-mc-941_1bbe009cc3da1dcaaa0145de15db99c0.fit-760w.JPG


The U.S. flag flies over Chinese shipping containers that were unloaded at the Port of Long Beach, in Los Angeles County.Mark Ralston / AFP - Getty Images file
Yang, the toy gun vendor in the Beijing market, said it was not only about economics.

"The Chinese have the ability to endure great hardships, but I doubt if the Americans can endure hardships too," he said.

But not everyone is so bullish.

Fang Zheng is the manager of Good Neighbor, a convenience store chain in Beijing. He believed that “China has no choice but to fight back against increased tariffs, but in the end we prefer a peaceful resolution.”

Han Dongdong, who works for Swedish telecoms company Ericsson, said he was worried about the impact the trade war might have on China's youth.

"We don’t feel any effects now," she said while shopping for shoes. "But if it continues, our economy will be affected, so China and the U.S. should try to find a compromise."

Trump has long since criticized China for what he deemed unfair practices, accusing it of manipulating its currency and carrying out flagrant intellectual property theft.

"This trade war is probably because the Americans think we have deceived them or we have not kept our promise," said Abbot Zhang, a marketing agent for a children's basketball training camp. He reckons Trump might have a point.

"We should therefore try to work out agreements with the Americans and prove that we will carry them out," he said.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Looks like the Chinese public is not as clueless to the trade war as the advocates for trade war would like to imagine.



I'm always amazed by how some of these experts made their calculation.

How is 21 Trillion 50% larger than 14 Trillion? Probably the same way that Trump did when he said the U.S. economy is twice as big as China's.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China defiant on Trump's trade war, but some fear it hurts them too
"If you don’t need our 1.4-billion people market, fine," said Dong Jian, a taxi driver in Beijing. "If we are being bullied we will fight back."

BEIJING — President Donald Trump may have struck a conciliatory tone in recent days, saying he was optimistic of making a deal to end his trade war with China. But on the streets of Beijing, the mood was mainly one of defiance at the tit-for-tat.

"We have never been afraid of anyone," said Yang Fang, who sells toy guns at a market in the city. He believes the trade war is "just an attempt by the U.S. to maintain its hegemony and stop China's development."


On Monday, Trump claimed
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, and that they "want to make a deal." However, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware of any calls between the nations.

The state-controlled China Daily newspaper said Tuesday that "China wants to make a deal, but that deal can only be reached based on equality and mutual respect."

190827-china-yuan-mc-938_1bbe009cc3da1dcaaa0145de15db99c0.fit-760w.JPG


A securities company in Beijing on Monday.Wang Zhao / AFP - Getty Images
Trump's comments,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, were an apparent pivot after last week saw the latest salvos fired between the world's two largest economies. Beijing announced new tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods in retaliation to Washington's own tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China.

In response, Trump tweeted that he would be hiking tariffs on a combined $550 billion of Chinese goods, and he also "ordered" U.S. businesses that deal with China to begin looking for alternatives. Experts say in reality such a drastic measure would be
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

NBC News spoke with people on the street Monday. Most of these interviews were conducted before Trump's comments at the G-7, though the president's words did not receive widespread coverage here.

Dong Jian, a taxi driver in Beijing, was among many who reacted defiantly to Trump's part in the eye-for-an-eye exchanges.

"If you don’t need our 1.4-billion people market, fine," he said, referring to China's status as the world's most populous country. "We don't like the trade war but if we are being bullied we will fight back."

"Remember you are only some 300 million, let’s see what happens to your soybeans," he added, a reference to U.S. agricultural imports.

190827-china-trade-mc-941-2_d1733544ac4be32ee3aa995c4716f0ba.fit-760w.JPG


Yang Fang, who sells toy guns in a Beijing market.Eric Baculinao
It's true that the trade war has at least the potential to cause pain for U.S. businesses and consumers.

New calculations
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
found if the new tariffs take effect as planned they will cost the average American household around $1,000. And the American Chamber of Commerce in China said some 75 percent of its members — who are U.S. companies and individuals operating in China —
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that the trade war is having a negative impact on their business.

But it is also causing pain for Chinese companies, such as textile exporters in Suzhou
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Overnight into Monday, China's currency, the yuan, sank to an 11-year low not experienced since the 2008 financial crisis.

China has lost 5 million jobs and two million manufacturing jobs due to the Trump Tariffs. Trumps got China back on its heels, and the United States is doing great.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Trump
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that China had lost "five million jobs" because of the trade war in the past year. He appeared to be referring to estimates by China International Capital Corp, a bank.

The U.S. has some advantages, Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Its economy is 50 percent larger and relies less on imports and exports, "so the near-term pain will be greater for China," wrote Prasad, who is also a professor on trade policy at Cornell University.

However, China may also have some benefits, such as its command economy, dominated by state-run enterprises, and one-party state that may be better equipped at stopping bad economic news from spreading among its people.
China's Commerce Ministry denounced the latest U.S. moves as "unilateral, protectionist bullying and extreme pressurizing" and warned that the U.S. will have to "eat its own bitter fruit."

Jennifer Jiang, a college student, agreed with the official line.

"The bigger loser in a trade war will be the Americans, especially low-income Americans, because they will be paying more for their needs," she said.

She added that "here in China, we don't really feel the effects of trade war, we have everything," she said, pointing to the well-stocked shelves in a grocery store.

190827-china-trade-mc-941_1bbe009cc3da1dcaaa0145de15db99c0.fit-760w.JPG


The U.S. flag flies over Chinese shipping containers that were unloaded at the Port of Long Beach, in Los Angeles County.Mark Ralston / AFP - Getty Images file
Yang, the toy gun vendor in the Beijing market, said it was not only about economics.

"The Chinese have the ability to endure great hardships, but I doubt if the Americans can endure hardships too," he said.

But not everyone is so bullish.

Fang Zheng is the manager of Good Neighbor, a convenience store chain in Beijing. He believed that “China has no choice but to fight back against increased tariffs, but in the end we prefer a peaceful resolution.”

Han Dongdong, who works for Swedish telecoms company Ericsson, said he was worried about the impact the trade war might have on China's youth.

"We don’t feel any effects now," she said while shopping for shoes. "But if it continues, our economy will be affected, so China and the U.S. should try to find a compromise."

Trump has long since criticized China for what he deemed unfair practices, accusing it of manipulating its currency and carrying out flagrant intellectual property theft.

"This trade war is probably because the Americans think we have deceived them or we have not kept our promise," said Abbot Zhang, a marketing agent for a children's basketball training camp. He reckons Trump might have a point.

"We should therefore try to work out agreements with the Americans and prove that we will carry them out," he said.

21 - 14 = 7. 7 trillion is 50% of 14 trillion.
 
21 - 14 = 7. 7 trillion is 50% of 14 trillion.
LOL yes, but that

[US] economy is ... larger [than Chinese]

statement needs to take the US number as reference,

so in fact the US economy (=21t) is about 33% larger economy than Chinese economy (=14t),

as 100% in this context corresponds to 21t;

if a 21t US economy had been 50% larger than Chinese economy, it would've meant 10.5t (not 14t) Chinese economy
 

Quickie

Colonel
21 - 14 = 7. 7 trillion is 50% of 14 trillion.

Why not divide by 21 or the average of 21, 14?

In wiki, it listed six ways of doing it.

6b915be29a0f9a5267018f90014a74c6a04551f1


As with relative change, the relative difference is undefined if f(x, y) is zero.

Several common choices for the function f(x, y) would be:

  • max(|x|, |y|),
  • max(x, y),
  • min(|x|, |y|),
  • min (x, y),
  • (x + y)/2, and
  • (|x| + |y|)/2

If (x + y)/2 is used. ==> 40%

If max(|x|, |y|) is used. ==> 33%
 
Last edited:

Quickie

Colonel
LOL yes, but that

[US] economy is ... larger [than Chinese]

statement needs to take the US number as reference,

so in fact the US economy (=21t) is about 33% larger economy than Chinese economy (=14t),

as 100% in this context corresponds to 21t;

if a 21t US economy had been 50% larger than Chinese economy, it would've meant 10.5t (not 14t) Chinese economy

That's how I see it too.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
LOL yes, but that

[US] economy is ... larger [than Chinese]

statement needs to take the US number as reference,

so in fact the US economy (=21t) is about 33% larger economy than Chinese economy (=14t),

as 100% in this context corresponds to 21t;

if a 21t US economy had been 50% larger than Chinese economy, it would've meant 10.5t (not 14t) Chinese economy

I’m just trying to figure out how they came up with the number. Only way they could’ve gotten 50% is if they did the same calculation. I’m not saying that the conclusion they reached is correct.

I think if they really meant that the Chinese economy is 10.5 trillion dollars they would’ve said “the U.S. economy is twice as big”. Doesn’t that sound more dramatic and better illustrate the point?
 

Just4Fun

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thats what I said, he cant ordered them not to buy from China.

But he can sanction firms doing business with China on natonal security ground.
I know its a bit of a streach. But technically, he can and have done on very flimsy evidence!

Trump can't sanction GM, or Ford, or Boeing, or any other US backbone companies, as he sanctions Huawei no matter how far he stretches national security, unless he could successfully win a congressional support to declare war against China. If the US were at war against China, Trump's presidential power could go unlimited.

If he pursues the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) avenue to sanction big American firms for doing business in China, which has been Trump's calculation and probably was the basic reasoning of his now notorious "Order", he will have to go through endless courtroom fights because the intended targets of IEEPA are foreign countries entities, not backbone American corporations. If he uses IEEPA to order GM moving out China, everyone who has lost money, or perceptively could lose money, due to his GM order can take Trump to the court and ask for compensation. So, his sanction against GM can go nowhere because there are millions of GM investors who want GM to profit from its Chinese operations.
 
That's how I see it too.
I’m just trying to figure out how they came up with the number. Only way they could’ve gotten 50% is if they did the same calculation. I’m not saying that the conclusion they reached is correct.

I think if they really meant that the Chinese economy is 10.5 trillion dollars they would’ve said “the U.S. economy is twice as big”. Doesn’t that sound more dramatic and better illustrate the point?
LOL just to finish here:

if you went to your nearest math teacher and asked

"Economy "A" is 21 trillion, and economy "B" is 14 trillion; by how many percent econ. "A" is bigger than "B"?"

s/he would answer "by 33% (rounded)"
 
Top