I was just thinking from the discussion of another thread :
Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??
The latest focus is still improving J-8, a 2nd/3rd generation fighter that's 40+ years old (and 50+ years old from western standard).
The latest export to Pakistan the JF-17 / FC-1 is at best a 4th generation fighter in the same class as F-16, but more likely 3rd generation fighter in the same class as Northrop F-5...
And China is still developing the J-11B!!
It is plenty obvious to every logical/sensible observer to come to the conclusion - China is still technologically/infrastructurally/institutionally far behind the west and Russia by atleast 30+ YEARS in aviation (in the space arena? 50+ years).
I will say it again, at the most optimistic projection - China will have 5th generation fighter by 2030 or later. The AVIC will continue its development at a snail pace - "polishing" and SUPERFICIALLY IMPROVING the J-10, J-11B (probably putting DSI and other superficial crap that actually decrease the performance) until its finally "on par" with the original design they were cloning/"inspired" from (J-10 : F-16/IAI Lavi/Eurofighter Typhoon; J-11B: Su-27/Su-30/Su-35/Su-37).
I am willing to bet AVIC doesn't even have a blueprint of "5th generation" fighter on their table even right now - and it won't until 2020 or later. It will have to wait until it digested the lesson from 3rd/4th generation, and learn from video and abroad the Russian/American 5th generation before it can even try to attempt on its own.
To Rhino123 : This is what I am asking you :
Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??
I'm sorry, but WTF??
"The latest focus is still improving the J-8"...????
By latest, do you mean the most recent? (If they came out with a plan yesterday to install some new avionics or whatever to existing J-8's then sure I'll bite -- but you make it sound like all the development is going to the J-8!)
Haven't you heard of the J-10B, J-11B, J-15?
And what do you mean by superficially improving the J-10 and J-11B? I'll understand if you say the J-11B is/was moving along a bit slow, but superficial improvements?? If you want to compare the J-11B to the Flankers China received back in the 90's...
And the J-10B, simply from pictures is obviously much more capable than the J-10, even if the posts of it having AESA radar were false.
You also claim that the J-10, J-11B were "cloned" from the F-16, Lavi, Eurofighter and Flanker series, respectively... No one is saying the J-11B isn't a "clone" of a flanker -- but it's plain ignorant to say "oh it looks the same therefore it performs the same" (which is what you're implying at least). New materials, avionics, engines have an impact on performance as well... At least I am certain that the J-11B isn't a decrease in performance from the PLAAF's old Su-27's...
And really, do you want to get into the argument that J-10 is a clone of F-16/Lavi/Eurofighter? (Let's through gripen and rafale in the mix as well, just for fun eh?...)
On China getting 5th gen fighters... I can direct to the CCTV interview of the PLAAF general saying that they will get 5th gen fighters from 2017-2019 (onlast year's airforce day), and that a general wouldn't be making such a claim if they weren't completely certain that such an event would be guaranteed (espicially so as China is very sensitive about face -- if a 5th gen fighter didn't emerge 2017-2019 then it woudl be quite a loss of face)...
But really I think the best compromise would be simply to wait a couple of decades and then come back to this question with a definite answer.
(Btw; it's quite ridiculous to call the Jf-17 comparable to the F-5/third generation... Did third generation planes have MRAAM (fire and forget) missiles? Fly by wire? And the JF-17 can be modified for varying avionics, so if a client decides to install an AESA...)