Yeah, now that I think about it you're right. Its over.
Chinese Aviation Industry
- Thread starter FriedRiceNSpice
- Start date
Considering the excessive OPSEC even in civilian aviation industry, no news does not necessarily mean it's not happening. Also, indigenizing ARJ-21 is a rather low priority compared to delivering C919.
In China, regional airliners are facing strong competition from high speed trains. For some components of ARJ-21, the small total size of the orders on the airplane probably will never justify the cost to develop domestic substitutes. If there are components that can be shared between ARJ-21 and C919, there are chances for them to be indigenized on ARJ-21.
It's all about sorting the priorties.
Strategically, commercial airliners are less critical to China's economical and social development. There isn't urgency for indigenization. I don't see the US and EU to completely cut off civilian aviation supplies any time soon, aircrafts or components. There are not many options left with the US and EU to balance trade with China. If that does happen one day, it will be in a full out war (not necessarily a war that involves military forces). In such situation, the CPC politburo won't be worried too much if the Chinese commercial airlines are ground to halt.
In civilian aviation, full indigenization has never been the goal because that wouldn't make sense economically and technologically. What China needs is the bargain power the assures uninterruptible foreign supplies. Such power can come from absolute dominance in a few key areas or dominance in many fields without key shortcomings. This is actually true for semiconductors, too.
I think the current approach is the best one. In this approach, the aircrafts are the platforms for most domestic suppliers to even have a chance in the game. The SOEs begin with building the platforms even if it means to buy most key parts and components from foreign sources. Until we see Chinese aviation components suppliers able to compete at the world stage, I think it is going to be way forward.
Unrealistically demanding full indiginezation does more harm than good.
It took China less than a decade to replicate the whole high speed train technology. If you think it is simpler than aircraft. Well. It is not.
China had to overcome huge barriers to get the WS-10 operational in a good way but ever since they hit that milestone a lot of the rest is falling into place. We now have WS-20 operational as well. I also think the AECC engines for the C919 should be ready sooner than a lot of people think.
Also unlike what I have seen several people on Twitter say. Well. The truth is the Irkut MC-21 is more advanced than the A320NEO and 737MAX. The A320 uses a 1980s era airframe and the 737 uses an airframe from the 1960s. Both were based on even earlier airframes. The MC-21 uses a modern airframe and composite wings. The Sukhoi Superjet is as modern or more than other aircraft in its category. Both aircraft still use a lot of foreign content. But there has been a program to replace it for over 5 years. I doubt it will take the Russians long to replace it all. As for another comment I heard, that the Russians do not have enough engine production, the current production line for PD-14 engines is for like a dozen engines per year. That is like six aircraft. There are plans to ramp it up. They did not do it because there was no market demand for it back then. Aeroflot, in its infinite wisdom, wanted the US engines. The MC-21 was also originally to have come into service much earlier however because of sanctions after the annexation of Crimea and technical issues the whole program was delayed by two years. So it turned out they finished aircraft certification around the time the PD-14 came online and the aircraft prototype with its engine was flying. Now the Russian industry claims they will ramp up production of Sukhoi Superjet to 40 units per year. Like what? How will they do it without Western supply of SaM-146 engine hot section and other parts? I think they are bonkers. PD-8 engine is still in the test stand.
Anyway, this is a long march until China gets its own advanced commercial aviation. It has not been a priority in the past but I think China will get there.
China had to overcome huge barriers to get the WS-10 operational in a good way but ever since they hit that milestone a lot of the rest is falling into place. We now have WS-20 operational as well. I also think the AECC engines for the C919 should be ready sooner than a lot of people think.
Also unlike what I have seen several people on Twitter say. Well. The truth is the Irkut MC-21 is more advanced than the A320NEO and 737MAX. The A320 uses a 1980s era airframe and the 737 uses an airframe from the 1960s. Both were based on even earlier airframes. The MC-21 uses a modern airframe and composite wings. The Sukhoi Superjet is as modern or more than other aircraft in its category. Both aircraft still use a lot of foreign content. But there has been a program to replace it for over 5 years. I doubt it will take the Russians long to replace it all. As for another comment I heard, that the Russians do not have enough engine production, the current production line for PD-14 engines is for like a dozen engines per year. That is like six aircraft. There are plans to ramp it up. They did not do it because there was no market demand for it back then. Aeroflot, in its infinite wisdom, wanted the US engines. The MC-21 was also originally to have come into service much earlier however because of sanctions after the annexation of Crimea and technical issues the whole program was delayed by two years. So it turned out they finished aircraft certification around the time the PD-14 came online and the aircraft prototype with its engine was flying. Now the Russian industry claims they will ramp up production of Sukhoi Superjet to 40 units per year. Like what? How will they do it without Western supply of SaM-146 engine hot section and other parts? I think they are bonkers. PD-8 engine is still in the test stand.
Anyway, this is a long march until China gets its own advanced commercial aviation. It has not been a priority in the past but I think China will get there.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
If the US thought that card was viable, it would have already played it during the trade war. Nonetheless, I welcome them to do it. It will be a delay for China, but just like Huawei, it would fast track the transformation of a product from a Chinese box of foreign parts to a truly Chinese product. One needs only to look at China's military aviation to see how it always goes.
False logic. Russia and China don't move at nearly the same pace. Russia used to produce fighter jets when China could only produce bicycles. Now China produces a 5th gen fighter with more advanced tech than Russia.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
There are those excuses and then there is the result. There is nothing that Trump would not have sacrificed (except perhaps Ivanka) to win his grudge war against China.
No, spending decades to make products that make rivals inferior. In every one of those categories, China's aircraft are at least world standard, competitive with the best or better, but pundits will waste time inventing reasons to assuage their fears calling Chinese products inferior simply because there's no fight to test them out. The only thing that can be compared is safety, which is indicative of work culture and meticulousness, an aspect of military aviation in which China is well ahead of Russia and the US. And safety is the main thing for civilian aviation.
It's an issue of need. China did not prioritize a successor to the H-6 because it was the least important aspect to China's air force given how it was to fight.
They don't get delayed 2 decades because of imaginary sanctions either.
And Boeing got pulled back off the shelves after multiple crashes causing hundreds of deaths. Wouldn't even see the C919 delays when standing next to this giant.
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Russia is just a much more natural fit for aviation to develop because of its wide expanses. Until remote places like Xinjiang, Tibet, or Inner Mongolia develop more the aviation market in China will be limited. China is still huge however and you have international travel to take into consideration. So in global terms Chinese market is still huge. The thing is the problem with international travel is that you have BS like certification to consider. The main aviation certification authorities in the world are in the US and Europe. The one in the US was certainly a factor in the huge delays in the entry into service of ARJ21. Only place which traditionally did not use US or European certification was Africa. Because the place was ridden with Soviet aircraft. So without Western certification China would be limited to sales there and maybe countries like Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago and they are hugely dependent on aviation but have limited capital to spend on expensive aircraft.
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Not strictly China but the West is planning to roll out electric planes within a decade. I wonder if China has any electric plane plans?
Electric Planes Are Coming Sooner Than You Think
Electric aviation is no flight of fancy: Leading airlines like United and EasyJet are onboard as early adopters, with the first U.S. commercial routes slated for 2026.
You may be boarding an electric plane sooner than you think. The first rollouts for a major airline—with United—are due in 2026, and countries like Denmark and Sweden have announced plans to make all domestic flights fossil fuel–free by 2030.
The past year has propelled the aviation industry ever closer toward a goal of viable commercial electric aircraft. United Airlines announced in July that it’s buying 100 19-seater, zero-emission electric planes from Swedish startup Heart Aerospace; they are set to take flight for short hops in the United States in 2026.
Sorry but electric planes are a scam atm. Just look at how much heavier a EV is than a gasoline car, and realise that weight is a 10x bigger issue for flight