After reading your comments, I am convinced you are an Indian. Chinese don't think and operate like Indians.
Chinese Aviation Industry
- Thread starter FriedRiceNSpice
- Start date
lcloo
Captain
True. Commercial airline manufacturing is all about making profit, not pioneering advance high-tech aircraft. Supersonic Concord was a success technologically but a failure commercially, sub-sonic Airbus and Boeings rule the sky.
COMAC should go one small step at a time. The priority is to break the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing, and getting acceptance and confidence of foreign airline operators and air passengers. This will need at least a decade of commercial operations in China's domestic flight routes to assure foreigners on the safety and reliability of COMAC made aircraft.
I never said abandon the basics. I just said start developing hypersonics/supersonics as well. So let's sum up:
(1) China has tried developing commercial aviation since the Shanghai Y-10 in 1970. Today is the 50th year anniversary. The result is zero. Not a single ticket has been sold on any Chinese plane even comparable to the Boeing 707, which came out 62 years ago! So even if no hypersonics/supersonics developed successfully from now until 2070, hypersonics/supersonics would still be more successful than what China has been doing so far.
(2) For those saying "Oh, China needs to get the basics right first, even though there has been no return for 50 years, it will be a return in a couple of years! I promise!" the reality is China is not gaining ground, it is falling further behind. In the time China spent developing the ARJ21 from 2002 until today, companies like Boeing and Embraer have already developed an entirely new generation of jets. By the time China's jets become operational they are no longer competitive, like the ARJ21 is not. The only reason the ARJ21 has any airline customers at all is because of politics. China is chasing a target that is moving faster than it.
(3) This is not without cost. China has sunk $76 billion into AVIC/Comac and a lot of this money went to western suppliers. Meanwhile western suppliers will use that money to do more R&D that will further make China even more dependenton them.
If Comac goes on the entity list all its efforts go to zero, all its efforts since 2008 become worthless. Not only is the C919 have to be completely redesigned, all the testing redone, and the existing prototypes worthless, but the 38 ARJ21's currently in operation are grounded due to lack of maintenance support, and the airlines that purchased them have to write off a total loss.* How does this make sense? Why would an airline in any foreign country buy a jet that is manufactured by a company that could be put on the Entity List at any time? I am the one who wanted China to pursue better relations with the US to begin with. Posters here disagreed, so now I am proposing China take steps to defend itself from the consequences of that... and posters again disagree! It's like people here want China to get into a fight without trying to win. Set up a dependency and permanent inferiority.
All I did is I dare to suggest trying something new (not even giving up existing efforts) and suddenly I have a huge gang of people reacting like I've proposed the end of the world. China is in a disadvantageous position which means it's not the worst thing ever to consider thinking outside of the box of doing research into new technologies.
* In fact this whole episode exposes a major problem with China buying Boeing and Airbus planes, which is that if the US govt orders Boeing to end maintenance support (and pressures EU to do the same) then China's jets are no longer safe to fly AT ALL. There goes all civilian air travel in China, overnight.
(1) China has tried developing commercial aviation since the Shanghai Y-10 in 1970. Today is the 50th year anniversary. The result is zero. Not a single ticket has been sold on any Chinese plane even comparable to the Boeing 707, which came out 62 years ago! So even if no hypersonics/supersonics developed successfully from now until 2070, hypersonics/supersonics would still be more successful than what China has been doing so far.
(2) For those saying "Oh, China needs to get the basics right first, even though there has been no return for 50 years, it will be a return in a couple of years! I promise!" the reality is China is not gaining ground, it is falling further behind. In the time China spent developing the ARJ21 from 2002 until today, companies like Boeing and Embraer have already developed an entirely new generation of jets. By the time China's jets become operational they are no longer competitive, like the ARJ21 is not. The only reason the ARJ21 has any airline customers at all is because of politics. China is chasing a target that is moving faster than it.
(3) This is not without cost. China has sunk $76 billion into AVIC/Comac and a lot of this money went to western suppliers. Meanwhile western suppliers will use that money to do more R&D that will further make China even more dependenton them.
If Comac goes on the entity list all its efforts go to zero, all its efforts since 2008 become worthless. Not only is the C919 have to be completely redesigned, all the testing redone, and the existing prototypes worthless, but the 38 ARJ21's currently in operation are grounded due to lack of maintenance support, and the airlines that purchased them have to write off a total loss.* How does this make sense? Why would an airline in any foreign country buy a jet that is manufactured by a company that could be put on the Entity List at any time? I am the one who wanted China to pursue better relations with the US to begin with. Posters here disagreed, so now I am proposing China take steps to defend itself from the consequences of that... and posters again disagree! It's like people here want China to get into a fight without trying to win. Set up a dependency and permanent inferiority.
All I did is I dare to suggest trying something new (not even giving up existing efforts) and suddenly I have a huge gang of people reacting like I've proposed the end of the world. China is in a disadvantageous position which means it's not the worst thing ever to consider thinking outside of the box of doing research into new technologies.
* In fact this whole episode exposes a major problem with China buying Boeing and Airbus planes, which is that if the US govt orders Boeing to end maintenance support (and pressures EU to do the same) then China's jets are no longer safe to fly AT ALL. There goes all civilian air travel in China, overnight.
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China is following a similar path to that they followed with both high speed rail and nuclear power plants.
They imported a lot of hardware in the onset of things but later made their own made in China versions.
Both those programs have been highly successful.
My main gripe with the aviation sector imports is that unlike in high speed rail and nuclear power plants China isn't using the latest technologies but older generation hardware to a large degree. That means it is more similar to the auto business and may result in lackluster products. But Western sanctions on a lot of technologies bar China from doing much better than this at the time.
They imported a lot of hardware in the onset of things but later made their own made in China versions.
Both those programs have been highly successful.
My main gripe with the aviation sector imports is that unlike in high speed rail and nuclear power plants China isn't using the latest technologies but older generation hardware to a large degree. That means it is more similar to the auto business and may result in lackluster products. But Western sanctions on a lot of technologies bar China from doing much better than this at the time.
@gadgetcool5 i honestly don’t understand your point...
1, China in the 70s is vastly different from what it is in 2020s
2, the Aviation industry itself is vastly different today vs the 70s
3, the Shanghai Y-10 was only ever in the prototype stage, as I understand it, it only had 3 prototypes and a few hundred hours of flight time and never entered serial production, which are exactly the very basics we are talking about... at least the ARJ21 is in serial production
4, your example of using Shanghai Y-10 is flawed, the aviation industry in China never developed as a whole as a result of the Shanghai Y-10 and thus effectively China never caught up in the first place. As I have already explained with my small arms example, getting something into serial production is vastly different and far more complex than just having a design and a few prototypes
5, China is not falling further behind... with the ARJ21 production/assembly line, more components are produced in China as a result, which is a step in the right directly. While with the venture of C919 there has been some joint venture setup for some key components production in China. Both of which are valuable experience and infrastructure for the future.
6, from 2002 to today, companies like Boeing and Embraer can develop a new generation of jets is because they have the expertise, accumulated practical knowledge of the decades producing jets and a revenue stream to support it... and China is having problems because of exactly these points... therefore it has to start from lower starting point, there were practically no experience gained from the 70s venture, as explained before... even I can DIY a modern gun with enough time, the materials and machine tools but I can’t put it into mass production and compete with say H&K on pricing and reliability.
7, yes the ARJ21 has a market because of politics, the Chinese market then couldn’t possibly support the development like the market today can. As such the ARJ21 or the C919 doesn’t have to compete with more advanced jets instead it fills and fits into what China needs and provide the revenue needed to further develop other models.
8, every development project has costs... your idea of leapfrogging would require just as much costs but instead the industry has to start from scratch instead of having some base to work from... what do you think would happen to the project otherwise? It would like trying to develop the J20 without first experiencing J10, J11, J15, J16 etc
9, if the Chinese simply continue with supersonic/hypersonic without developing the industry base it would have to work with western companies anyway... while allowing the western companies to touch upon the new tech since the components ordered would have to fit with the new tech and design... This would allow western companies to analysis and possibly leapfrog instead due to their robust industry base and experience.
10, about the entity list... this would in turn force the Chinese industry to start using all the knowledge and experience gained to reproduce the components needed, just like it has done with military equipment after 1989... it may not allow the jets to reach the international market... but it wasn’t really the point to begin with and it doesn’t need to enter the international market straight away either... see point 7
11, the better relationship you advocated for with US is basically capitulation by China... it would turn into a situation like Japan or worst India... aggressive moves by China and human rights issues were only pretexts, the real motives is to ensure China can never be tech independent. Huawei was a case in point, they design chips, their own systems and have a hand in the establishment of 5G standards and technologies... but they still use infrastructure from US in the chips manufacturing and US software, so the US is still gaining from the development... but because the US doesn’t have absolute control, the only thing they can do is to destroy it... we have prior examples with the French and Japanese. This means that Huawei have reached the point where the US is concerned enough to make the move.
12, the whole point of ARJ21 and C919 was the beginning steps to mount a defence, you can’t start from zero and expect a good result... and developing new tech is on going regardless of what other moves are made.
13, one additional point about the Aviation industry is the airport infrastructure... let’s say China is able to develop a new plane entirely with supersonic or hypersonic... but due to differences in design necessary to accommodate for the new technologies, there might be a need for changes in the airport infrastructure to accommodate these new planes much like the introduction of 747 did back in the day. Can there be guarantees that such a situation would not become reality and if such a situation does become reality would the airports around the world be willing invest the money needed to make these changes. There were reasons why the Concord, if I am not mistaken, remains the only supersonic airliner to ever enter commercial service, while all others remain on the drawing board never even seeing the prototype stage. This new supersonic/hypersonic plane might not be commercially viable immediately whilst waiting for these potential issues to be solved... therefore all the money invested will not see return for even longer...
14, the US government is unlikely to ban the sell and support of Boeing or Airbus... it would harm their interests too much... even now the only banned companies for US semiconductor components is Huawei and ZTE, not the whole industry. If it does happen, it would be an unprecedented event, unlike any sanctions before it and the ramifications might be more far reaching than the US can imagine. Further, there is still the high speed trains to rely on in the immediate aftermath.
1, China in the 70s is vastly different from what it is in 2020s
2, the Aviation industry itself is vastly different today vs the 70s
3, the Shanghai Y-10 was only ever in the prototype stage, as I understand it, it only had 3 prototypes and a few hundred hours of flight time and never entered serial production, which are exactly the very basics we are talking about... at least the ARJ21 is in serial production
4, your example of using Shanghai Y-10 is flawed, the aviation industry in China never developed as a whole as a result of the Shanghai Y-10 and thus effectively China never caught up in the first place. As I have already explained with my small arms example, getting something into serial production is vastly different and far more complex than just having a design and a few prototypes
5, China is not falling further behind... with the ARJ21 production/assembly line, more components are produced in China as a result, which is a step in the right directly. While with the venture of C919 there has been some joint venture setup for some key components production in China. Both of which are valuable experience and infrastructure for the future.
6, from 2002 to today, companies like Boeing and Embraer can develop a new generation of jets is because they have the expertise, accumulated practical knowledge of the decades producing jets and a revenue stream to support it... and China is having problems because of exactly these points... therefore it has to start from lower starting point, there were practically no experience gained from the 70s venture, as explained before... even I can DIY a modern gun with enough time, the materials and machine tools but I can’t put it into mass production and compete with say H&K on pricing and reliability.
7, yes the ARJ21 has a market because of politics, the Chinese market then couldn’t possibly support the development like the market today can. As such the ARJ21 or the C919 doesn’t have to compete with more advanced jets instead it fills and fits into what China needs and provide the revenue needed to further develop other models.
8, every development project has costs... your idea of leapfrogging would require just as much costs but instead the industry has to start from scratch instead of having some base to work from... what do you think would happen to the project otherwise? It would like trying to develop the J20 without first experiencing J10, J11, J15, J16 etc
9, if the Chinese simply continue with supersonic/hypersonic without developing the industry base it would have to work with western companies anyway... while allowing the western companies to touch upon the new tech since the components ordered would have to fit with the new tech and design... This would allow western companies to analysis and possibly leapfrog instead due to their robust industry base and experience.
10, about the entity list... this would in turn force the Chinese industry to start using all the knowledge and experience gained to reproduce the components needed, just like it has done with military equipment after 1989... it may not allow the jets to reach the international market... but it wasn’t really the point to begin with and it doesn’t need to enter the international market straight away either... see point 7
11, the better relationship you advocated for with US is basically capitulation by China... it would turn into a situation like Japan or worst India... aggressive moves by China and human rights issues were only pretexts, the real motives is to ensure China can never be tech independent. Huawei was a case in point, they design chips, their own systems and have a hand in the establishment of 5G standards and technologies... but they still use infrastructure from US in the chips manufacturing and US software, so the US is still gaining from the development... but because the US doesn’t have absolute control, the only thing they can do is to destroy it... we have prior examples with the French and Japanese. This means that Huawei have reached the point where the US is concerned enough to make the move.
12, the whole point of ARJ21 and C919 was the beginning steps to mount a defence, you can’t start from zero and expect a good result... and developing new tech is on going regardless of what other moves are made.
13, one additional point about the Aviation industry is the airport infrastructure... let’s say China is able to develop a new plane entirely with supersonic or hypersonic... but due to differences in design necessary to accommodate for the new technologies, there might be a need for changes in the airport infrastructure to accommodate these new planes much like the introduction of 747 did back in the day. Can there be guarantees that such a situation would not become reality and if such a situation does become reality would the airports around the world be willing invest the money needed to make these changes. There were reasons why the Concord, if I am not mistaken, remains the only supersonic airliner to ever enter commercial service, while all others remain on the drawing board never even seeing the prototype stage. This new supersonic/hypersonic plane might not be commercially viable immediately whilst waiting for these potential issues to be solved... therefore all the money invested will not see return for even longer...
14, the US government is unlikely to ban the sell and support of Boeing or Airbus... it would harm their interests too much... even now the only banned companies for US semiconductor components is Huawei and ZTE, not the whole industry. If it does happen, it would be an unprecedented event, unlike any sanctions before it and the ramifications might be more far reaching than the US can imagine. Further, there is still the high speed trains to rely on in the immediate aftermath.
by78
General
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The Y 10 was concelled because China at that time does not have the financial wherewithal to support civilian airline industry Money was short and there is more urgent need that has to be adressed So Nothing is done for another 30 years But in the mean time China concentrate on getting their military jet fighter industry off the ground and They make progress spectacularly starting from scratch now China is basically independent when it come to military fighter
Back then the country was poor so there is no demand for civilian airline. Nobody travel o air most people travel by train But even that the basic ground transport is inadequate so they need to address that first which they did China now has the largest high speed train in the world totaling 25000 km and growing.
Now that the ground transport is more or less in good shape They can now turn the attention to air tranport as the demand is growing due to prosperity majority of people can afford to travel by air .
So it is not like China cannot do do it but she make the choice of not pursuing civilian aircraft desing because there is no need back then! Sometime I cannot understand Gadgetcool logic other than trying to bash China for no reason Yup I thing he is Indian allright !
ARJ21 is a succesfull design It was all metal construction because that was the state of art of technology at that time and You need to set up the infrastracture for Civilian air line industry thing like maintenance depot, Spare part depot and service. Training , building component supply network etc. before you go to bigger thing . ARJ21 serve that purpose, You need to crawl before you can run.
See what happened to country that pursuit aircraft design without financial whereeithal or market The go bankrupt eg Canada with Bombardier and Brazil with Embraer,Indonesia with the PTN.
For China air transport is a luxury For the masses China has excellent rail network that basically can reach most of the major cities and county town
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Well, even if you wanted to go with all metal construction, you could use Al-Li to shave down the weight and make a more competitive aircraft. Otherwise you are doing a rehash of 1980s technology in the 2020s. Al-Li is at least 1990s or 2000s era technology.
It is in common enough use it should be considered in any new metal aircraft. I know the A320 and B737 aren't particularly new designs either. But that is precisely why China had a chance to leapfrog these aircraft and it wasted it in my opinion.
In the higher end of the market, with widebodies, the bar to compete is a lot higher. Since aircraft, be it the A350 or the B787, use composite materials and more modern designs which are at most a decade old.
It is in common enough use it should be considered in any new metal aircraft. I know the A320 and B737 aren't particularly new designs either. But that is precisely why China had a chance to leapfrog these aircraft and it wasted it in my opinion.
In the higher end of the market, with widebodies, the bar to compete is a lot higher. Since aircraft, be it the A350 or the B787, use composite materials and more modern designs which are at most a decade old.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Al-li metal goes thru many iteration and It was not until the 3rd generation Al-Li that they are comfortable enough to use it in a plane. I don't think Al-li technology is available in China back in 2000's because the third generation Al-Li is only marketed by the west only in early 1990's So it is impossible for China to have this metallurgy back in 2002 when they start designing ARJ21.
But ARJ 21 is conservative design reflecting Chinese mature technology at that time ARJ 21 use supercritical wing It is not like technology of 1980's There is no need to push the best technology like MRj21 when latter it was found to have many deficiency. Starting a civilian plane from scratch it is already daunting challenge why add more complication and head ache just to have the bragging right ARJ 21 meet China demand for regional jet serving the high plateau west and while at the same time providing the stepping stone for better plane which is Comac CJ 919 that's all. The main goal is not export as Chinese internal demand were enough to meet the development cost . Export is icing on the cake But experience and skill developed in buildingcivilian plane is invaluable and priceless
Third (3rd) generation Al-Li alloys and their applications
In the early 1990s, 3rd generation Al-Li alloys were introduced to the market, and these alloys featured a reduced Li concentration (Li < 2 wt%) to overcome the previously mentioned limitations of former Al-Li alloys , , . Alloys such as AA2076, AA2065, AA2055, AA2060, AA2050, AA2199, AA2099, AA2397, AA2297, AA2198, AA2196, and AA2195 were developed for aircraft and aerospace applications, and they are 3rd generation Al-Li alloys . The densities, developers, and nominal compositions of 3rd generation Al-Li alloys are listed in .
The mechanical and physical properties of the 3rd generation Al-Li alloys were tailored to fulfil the requirements of the future aircraft, including weight savings, reduced inspection and maintenance, and performance . For instance, Al-Li alloy 2195 was used instead of AA2219 for the cryogenic fuel tank on the space shuttle, because it provides a lower density, higher modulus and strength than the AA2219. Al-Li alloy 2198-T851 was produced to substitute the AA2524-T3 and AA2024 in aircraft structures, because it has an excellent damage tolerance, low density, and high fatigue resistance compared with the stated alloys .
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AFAIK the US imported Al-Li technology from Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The DC-XA LOX tank for example was made in Russia if I remember correctly.
Older alloys may have worse performance but they were already in use for many applications.
The DC-XA LOX tank for example was made in Russia if I remember correctly.
Older alloys may have worse performance but they were already in use for many applications.