Although I don't give much weight to this particular news piece. I must say that it is not out of logic that Y-20 does get foreign orders ALREADY now. C919 is a good example, it has not even flied yet, but the order stands at 507 although mostly Chinese orders. But then Y-20 is military aircraft, many countries have no chance to western equivalent and Il-76 is too old. Also Il-76 was produced in Kazakhstan, Russia only begin to produce it recently, so the Russian plants are no more experienced in producing airframes of this size than China. The only advantage that Russia has is D-30 which can sway potential customers right now. For a potential customer to consider a heavy lift aircraft in the near future, the planning and evaluation probably need to start now, and some kind of MOU being signed soon so they will get it in the first possible time.
China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft
- Thread starter Totoro
- Start date
Airliners need to have foreign orders to be considered a successful product rather than just a product for the Chinese market. Military transport for a country like China's goal is to advance China's military, not to improve the reputation of China's civilian aerospace industry.
Something strategic like Y-20 will be used to fill plaaf requirements first and that is huge. They have no reason to try exporting it for a while. It will take a while just to ramp up production, since they don't have foreign suppliers for certain parts who are used to mass production for an airliner. You just need to look at recent import of IL-76 and export of Y-8 to see how fast these deals can come together.
I think I didn't make myself clear. I didn't mean China would make export for reputation or profit as the priority for Y-20. I am totally against that idea. What I meant was the possibility of inquiry from potential customers for a future buy. Of course, PLAAF's own need always come first, no doubt about that.
As the chance of this news being so slim, I feel a bit ridiculous for me to continue talking about it now.
foxmulder_ms
Junior Member
This is not a top secret plane. If it finds customers it should be sold. There may not be an active search for customers but if someone shows an interest, why say "no"? Export for reputation and/or profit are great reasons.
JayBird
Junior Member
I think the problem is not keeping Y-20 a secret plane, but China can't even make enough Y-20 for domestic demand in the foreseeable future. There are not enough production lines to build Y-20 for export. It will take a while before China's own need is fullfilled. Then we will think about exporting Y-20 to other countries.
foxmulder_ms
Junior Member
I find "China's needs are too big" argument rather weak because there wont be a downpour of orders anyway... Lets consider China can build 20 Y-20 in the coming 5 years. If Pakistan orders 2, will it be a catastrophe for PLAAF to wait 6 months for the additional 2? USA is simultaneously selling F-35 while USAF is buying it, too. Exports are nothing but good things for most of the military equipment production.
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Zool
Junior Member
I would think China has a requirement on the order of 100+ Y-20's to fulfill the role of Heavy Transport & AWACS. Manufacturing 10 per year would still take at least a decade to meet domestic need without consideration for exports. I personally don't see Y-20 exports to materialize for at least a few years after serial production begins.
Edit - add Aerial Refueling Platform to that list as well.
Edit - add Aerial Refueling Platform to that list as well.
JayBird
Junior Member
There is Polite-robber's watermark on the picture you posted, if he is the one who said no. 785 then I think is real. His words are usually pretty credible.