China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft

Mig-29, the goal of any PLAAF program is to first fulfill their own need and then export when they build up enough production level. At this point, they need IL-76s because the domestic production level for Y-20 is unlikely going to be enough for a while.

tphuang said:

Mig-29, the goal of any PLAAF program is to first fulfill their own need and then export when they build up enough production level. At this point, they need IL-76s because the domestic production level for Y-20 is unlikely going to be enough for a while.

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In my opinion, i think the Chinese are going for two goals.
The strategic one, which is make a pure domestic aircraft regardless of its exportabiliy and the global one which is get the skills to get enough bargain power in joint ventures.


Global aircraft manufacturers are becoming not any more pure national brands, in fact G&E or Pratt and Whitney are brands that do already a lot of out sourcing, Boeing does the same.

So sooner or later China will do the same.

C919 is an example, many of its sub-systems are not chinese, in the case of Y-20 i do not think only the engines are Russian, since in the case of C919 many sub-systems are not chinese.

If you consider Y-20 also carries troops, then it has similar requirements to an airliner, so is unlikely Y-20 will have all the sub-systems Chinese and C919 won`t.

Today many aircraft are not national projects, B-787 is not american, but an international program, lead by an american company true but where people of many nations are part of.

To give you a better idea. why american companies outsource? simple, to reduce costs, so even if Y-20 or C919 compete with american, Brazilian or European products since Embraer, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Garret, RR or GE outsource the price of equivalent western products is cheapening up.

So my whole point was do not surprise if China does joint ventures because it is a normal practice these days

I would like to add some few things concerning the market for transport aircrafts. I would like the forum members to try to assert if what I am thinking is viable. Brazil is going forward withe the KC-390 which is a project to create a transport aircraft with 21 tonnes (23 tons) of cargo, and secondly india is going forward with a project UAC/HAL Il-214 to project supporting a maximum payload of 20 tonnes.

Link:

Link:

Would it be interesting for India to go together with Brazil and cooperate on the KC-390 Project.

Thanks

mehdi said:

I would like to add some few things concerning the market for transport aircrafts. I would like the forum members to try to assert if what I am thinking is viable. Brazil is going forward withe the KC-390 which is a project to create a transport aircraft with 21 tonnes (23 tons) of cargo, and secondly india is going forward with a project UAC/HAL Il-214 to project supporting a maximum payload of 20 tonnes.

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Would it be interesting for India to go together with Brazil and cooperate on the KC-390 Project.

Thanks

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Most of the military Il-214 are for Russia. Would it be acceptable for the US as well as Russia that US companies contribute to a combined KC-390/Il-214 project as they now contribute to KC-390?
China needs a similar aircraft and will develop it separately. I can imagine a combine of the BRIC countries undertaking such a project together but only in the medium term. KC-390 has gone to far to be rolled in a common project. But they might decide to develop an aircraft with 10 tonnes load twin turboprop with propellers similar to those of An-70, perhaps rope in Ukraine as well. This project would not be of strategic importance and would not need parts from the US yet could provide an aircraft with superior performance in its class.
One interesting possibility is the development of a four-engine version where a nacelle contains two engines driving a combining gearbox. This version would be excellent for hot and high airfields. It could also provide the option of a maritime patrol aircraft that shuts down half its engines during the patrol. P-3 Orion aircraft do this but then suffer the drag of two stopped propellers.

mehdi said:

I would like to add some few things concerning the market for transport aircrafts. I would like the forum members to try to assert if what I am thinking is viable. Brazil is going forward withe the KC-390 which is a project to create a transport aircraft with 21 tonnes (23 tons) of cargo, and secondly india is going forward with a project UAC/HAL Il-214 to project supporting a maximum payload of 20 tonnes.

Link:

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Link:

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Would it be interesting for India to go together with Brazil and cooperate on the KC-390 Project.

Thanks

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IMO that's too late to join ! Even if I'm not sure about the current progress on the Il-214 both types are now concurring projects.

Anyway I think a similar type in that class would also be "very" interesting for the PLAAF.

Deino

Deino said:

IMO that's too late to join ! Even if I'm not sure about the current progress on the Il-214 both types are now concurring projects.

Anyway I think a similar type in that class would also be "very" interesting for the PLAAF.

Deino

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Very True, and as Master Delft has reminded us by bringing up the P-3, the C-130 Hercules has been the preeminant and gold standard of Tactical Airlift for over 50 years, as the reigning queen, she is still in production. She has lots of emulators and would be competition, in fact I am intriqued by the A-400, it appears to be a very fine flying and sophisticated little sister and should serve very well, while some will no doubt predict that it will replace the C-130, it will not, and the reason is "simplicity". The C-130 is a simple, proven, tried, and true, airlifter, while some will tell us its an antique, two things keep it relevant. 1.The laws of aerodynamics do not change. 2.Todays C-130 is not my Daddy's C-130, it continues to evolve in a positive way. While the C-17 is an amazing aircraft, and the C-5 Galaxy is still something to see, talk about aluminum overcast, and those high bypass turbofans are large and powerfull, with a unique sound, and the very lovely C-141 is now history????, they lack the one element that has kept the C-130 relevant, to be simple, it is "simplicity", the C-130 has always been enough airlifter for everyday use, it is big enough, will get into and out of small unimproved strips, and it is fast enough. The Chinese are building the Y-20 in the same genre as the C-117 and the C-130, and to my eye it appears to be enough airlifter for every day use and at the same time not technological overkill? The A-400 is quite an airplane and I love the airshow routine, it has the same nimble handling the C-130A did fifty years ago when flown by the Horsemen, but it is a lot of airplane, and only time will tell if it will be "simple" enough to last, same with the Y-20, which also looks to be a winner?? Air Force Brat

MiG-29 said:

China is an important market, because it grows at 6.5% annually while the american at 3.3% but you forget that the US market in 2011 was 28% of the world`s; while China was only 11% so the growth of the US market is proportionally growing as fast as the Chinese.

The document i gave you never said Asia is not growing in fact they expect from Asia more orders than from North America, however you forget that China is only of the most important markets and still you have africa, Latin america and middle east that take another Chunk of the world market.

To put it in simple words, If a manufacturer has good sales in Africa, middle east, Europe, North america, Latin america and some of Asia it can be one of the largest.

In fact that is what Embraer, Bombardier, Airbus or Boeing do however they do sell aircraft to China.

Is China important? yes it is, i did not deny it.
But that is far from what you pretend to say, China is a very important market, one of the largest in the world, true, a promising one, but not the only one niether the largest.

Can Y-20 give to China the tools to create an important economic asset? certainly yes it can, however it does not mean it is the end of Airbus, Boeing, Embraer or Bombardier, it only means that C919 or Y-20 give the place China deserves as a large country and market.

It only means China is creating a new player that will heat up the competition, but as i told you sooner or later China will need to do joint ventures, and certainly Y-20 or C919 are joint ventures since many of their sub-systems are not Chinese.

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All these talk about civilian market has nothing to do with Y-20. The Y-20 is a military transport created to fill PLAAF's needs, not a civilian airliner made for export. The talk about export is also entirely meaningless for two reasons. First, China's lack of experience in production of such a large aircraft means production rate will be slow and that there won't be extra capacity left for export. Second, countries such as India with enough money to buy large transports will go for Western aircraft, whereas countries that do consider China/Russia/Ukraine aircraft will not have money to pay.

Your argument revolves around the expectation that China should cooperate with Russia, but "should" does not have the same meaning as "is", and the simple reality right now is that Y-20 is not a joint venture. China's plan on replacing Russian engines on the Y-20 with domestic WS-20s already shows China has no intent of cooperation.

As for the C919, the reason it contains a lot of foreign sub-systems is due to political reasons, not because it is good to cooperate. And by foreign sub-systems, they must be Western sub-systems and not Russian sub-systems. Without those Western sub-systems, Europe and US will not give out certifications. Without those certifications, Chinese made airliners cannot fly for commerical purposes in sky of the West.

Rather than being an example of what China should be doing, the C919 is an anti-example showing what China shouldn't be doing. The C919 being full of western sub-systems mean money earn from each airraft will go back to the West, so China's share in civilian aviation market at the end will be zero. Futhermore, by using western sub-systems, the C919 will be as costly as an airliner from the West. There will be no cost incentive for even Chinese airlines to purchase the aircraft.

Engineer said:

Your argument revolves around the expectation that China should cooperate with Russia, but "should" does not have the same meaning as "is", and the simple reality right now is that Y-20 is not a joint venture. China's plan on replacing Russian engines on the Y-20 with domestic WS-20s already shows China has no intent of cooperation.

As for the C919, the reason it contains a lot of foreign sub-systems is due to political reasons, not because it is good to cooperate. And by foreign sub-systems, they must be Western sub-systems and not Russian sub-systems. Without those Western sub-systems, Europe and US will not give out certifications. Without those certifications, Chinese made airliners cannot fly for commerical purposes in sky of the West.

There will be no cost incentive for even Chinese airlines to purchase the aircraft.

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Fact number one Y-20 flies with russian engines and China did a large order of those same engines.

Fact two C919 has at this moment a Soviet style market, mostly Chinese airliners are buying the product.

Reality number one, if Y-20 is only bought by China with 0 export market, the aircraft is unprofitable, why? let me remind you military aircraft do not represent a gain if they are financed by a government that also buys it.

Why the Soviet Union bankrupted ? simple weapons are only expenses, why Russia only exported during the 1990s and most of the 2000-2010 decade? simple the Russian government was unwilling to have expenses so Russian manufacturers went for profits.

Is Chinaa wealthy nation? reality 2, No China has still hundreds of millions of people with a low income, and with still standards of living lower than all western developed nation and still lower than even most emerging markets.

Does China needs to expend money in social programs?
Yes of course, so buying Y-20 for PLAAF does not mean any improvement of the quality of living for the Chinese citizens as the Soviet Citizens did not get inprovement for having a powerful military machine.

So does China need to export? yes they do

Why joint ventures are important simple it opens new markets to your products?
Why western and Japanese manufactures have joint ventures with Chinese firms in China? to open the Chinese market.

why western engine manufacturers cooperate within them selves?

same reason lower risks, costs in R&D and open new markets

The Engine Alliance, a 50/50 joint venture between GE Aviation and P&W, was formed to produce an engine for the Airbus A380. The Engine Alliance competes directly with Rolls-Royce for A380 engine business and holds a roughly equal market share with Rolls-Royce


International Aero Engines AG, a consortium comprised of P&W, Rolls-Royce, German engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines GmbH and the Japanese Aero Engines Corporation, produces the V2500 engine for use in the Airbus A319/A320/A321 aircraft.

MiG-29 said:

Fact two C919 has at this moment a Soviet style market, mostly Chinese airliners are buying the product.

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His point wasn't that the C919 can't sell overseas. His point was that without certification, the plane wouldn't even be allowed to fly, AT ALL, over Europe/North America. With Russian parts, the plane wouldn't be granted as easy certification by the European and North American agencies.

MiG-29 said:

Fact number one Y-20 flies with russian engines and China did a large order of those same engines.

Fact two C919 has at this moment a Soviet style market, mostly Chinese airliners are buying the product.

Reality number one, if Y-20 is only bought by China with 0 export market, the aircraft is unprofitable, why? let me remind you military aircraft do not represent a gain if they are financed by a government that also buys it.



Is Chinaa wealthy nation? reality 2, No China has still hundreds of millions of people with a low income, and with still standards of living lower than all western developed nation and still lower than even most emerging markets.

Does China needs to expend money in social programs?
Yes of course, so buying Y-20 for PLAAF does not mean any improvement of the quality of living for the Chinese citizens as the Soviet Citizens did not get inprovement for having a powerful military machine.



Why joint ventures are important simple it opens new markets to your product.

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We don't rule out the possibility of joint venture as demonstrated in Z-15 and AC313 helo.

But for Y-20 is too late. It will be a full domestic product. WS-20 engine already declared in the pipeline. I do see Y-20 as a strategic project which CCP can afford to loses money in this project. It do benefit the civilian with such huge plane involve in overseas evacuation and natural disaster help out. Just like space station which I believe will be very costly and doesn't learn much profit. Still it goes on.