China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft

Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Y-20, Self-reliance in strategic airlift

The amount of aircraft that China has been producing in the last 10-yearshas been impressive! The Y-20 is just another example of China making leaps and bounds in improving the quality and of its military and providing it with a strategic power projection.

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The Y-20 will not enter service before 2017, according to two Chinese military academics, Zhang He and Li Wei, writing in China Youth Daily, a major national newspaper. They also say that the Y-20 airframe incorporates composite materials .

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The Y-20 is an entirely new design, even though it is close in size and shape to the Il-76, which uses the same Saturn D-30KP medium-bypass engine as the Chinese airlifter's prototype. The Y-20 prototype is powered by four Russian D-30 series turbofan engines and the production aircraft will sport the WS-20 engines. Compared with the Il-76, the Y-20 has a shorter wingspan and a shorter, but slightly wider, fuselage. The Y-20 is larger than the Airbus A400M and has about the same fuselage diameter, but is much smaller than the Boeing C-17.

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Any thoughts from fellow forum members?
 
MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
MiG-29 said:
I disagree because in globalization suppliers mean also customers, when France buys Tiger Helicopter is buying german but also french, same is England with Eurofighter, it is buying italian, german and spanish products buy also british.

Airbus also reflects that philosophy since the begining, it was an pan European product.
C-309 is a brazilian lead project that has suppliers from Argentina, Chile, Colombia, whom will also buy C-309 for their respective air forces.

If China builds Y-20 only for her air force the price is all paid by China alone, it limits its exportability.

To give you a simple exmaple. Y-20 has limited Chances of being exported in the CIS simple because Russia will want to export Il-476, Europe is out of the question, since they have A-400M, North america too out of the question, India? out of the question too since they have MTA and they probably will buy Il-476 just by alliance with Russia or A-400Ms with alliance with France.

South america too is out of the question since Brazil already has market there for the C-309 and most south american air forces do not have needs beyond C-309.
Japan? out of the question.

So when you end up you find it hs exportability only to very few nations in Africa or Asia.

In few words, globalization means you make alliances so your products are bought by your friends or allies.
Click to expand...

The reality is that China is siege by the US-bloc and that leave it with very little "allies" to call for, save a few banana states and rogue states. If not for China's active role in the global economy, it'd be in the same dire strait as the USSR did back in the day. So your model of globalization just doesn't work for China.

And you just proved yourselves how you missed the point completely - Franco-German co-op projects like the Tigre attack helicopter have the backdrop of EU which both are principle, if not leading, members so they're in the same bloc, and a pretty solid one to boot, despite all the bickering and PIGGS and stuff; though the A400M is running the risk of falling apart but that has to do with the project's member states aren't as rich as they were, not the kind of design bickering that plague other co-op projects, and certainly you won't hear somebody embargo some key component techs to crash the project, the worst happened was just quit the project.

Now back to Y-20...

Export market for Y-20 is very limited from the beginning or under the best circumstances anyway, because anyone who are in the market shopping for transport of this category would most likely got the money to buy C-17, or Il-476 if on a pinch, because both have active production line so delivery schedule can be forecast, their performance has proven and spare parts availability is ensured. Things like that are out of reach for the poor nations really, they better off charter private flights or buy 2nd-hand turboprop transports for their needs.

Y-20's goals are 2-fold:
1. to laid the badly needed groundwork for China in the modern heavy airlifter production capability, which is a blank slate before this;
2. to fulfill PLAAF & PLAN aviation branch's need for such a platform, especially when the Ilyushin is already at capacity as it is to fulfill the demand, and the Russians are dragging their feet in the negotiations; on the other hand Antonov's An-70 project is still god-knows-when to reach production stage...yes, this is the "being grabbed at the nuts" part.

PLAAF's transport capability alone has a large demand for expansion as itself, the demand for just the transport variant would be enough to keep XAC production almost to capacity for years...y'know, it's not like Japan whose defense industry have to run at below capacity to keep it running due to the small domestic demand.
 
L

Lion

Senior Member
Y-20 do not need any export order. Just the domestic market alone will be enough.

If there is any export order for military transport plane. Y-9 will come in on time. Countries like Algeria, Sudan, Egypt, Sri Lanka will likely be the customer. They do not need to transport some heavy mechanized. Some light APC or humanitarian aid to disaster area will do.

Isn't Venezula just received the end order of some delivered Y-8?
 
MiG-29

MiG-29

Banned Idiot
MwRYum said:
So your model of globalization just doesn't work for China.

PLAAF's transport capability alone has a large demand for expansion as itself, the demand for just the transport variant would be enough to keep XAC production almost to capacity for years...y'know, it's not like Japan whose defense industry have to run at below capacity to keep it running due to the small domestic demand.
Click to expand...

I will tell you why i disagree.

Globalization is a global fact, all nations in 2013 are affected by it, China is not exception.

In aviation you can see it in the fact European investment in China goes to Airbus build there to Eurocopter plants.
Boeing also does work there, Bombardier too.
Britan also does work there with Spey engines for JH-7s; Russia with consultancy to licenses such as in Z-10 or J-11, or supplying engines like in the Y-20, J-31 or J-10 cases.

China already is in the global village.

However i understand the Chinese goal, the Chinese want to get the most of technological knowledge and manufacturing ability so in future joint programs they can be leading partners like in JF-17 or K-8.


The ability to make a jet does not make you to have the ability to sell it aviation is full of programs that backrupted their makers.

Russia is a good example, Il-96 has had mediocre sales, Tu-204 has had similar destiny despite these are good aircratf.

Y-20 has probably the posibility of becoming a profitable if it is exported, otherwise it will be a soviet style project that only the PLAAF buys.

Competition is strong these days, because globalization is increasing the ability of many nations to build jets.

Brazil today has a plan for a C-130 cargo plane to be sold by Embraer as a replacement for what many know is a good niche.

Indian and Russia with MTA are going to build a cargo plane to more or less directly compete with Embraer`s program.


For China, Y-20 will allow to build jets that in future programs might lead to a leading role in a joint venture.

For example a Ukranian-Russian-Chinese replacement for An-124 in a hypothetical case.

Or design an engine with Russia or even with India for a Airbus type jet.

Believe me competition is just heating up in aviation, and will heat up even more.

Embraer for that reason skipped the C909, MS-21, MRJ niche, since they know some of these projects will fail.

Having the ability of building a jet is something does not guarantee you success, See Ukraine, which struggles to build AN-124 and even An-148s.
 
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L

Lion

Senior Member
MiG-29 said:
I will tell you why i disagree.

Globalization is a global fact, all nations in 2013 are affected by it, China is not exception.

In aviation you can see it in the fact European investment in China goes to Airbus build there to Eurocopter plants.
Boeing also does work there, Bombardier too.
Britan also does work there with Spey engines for JH-7s; Russia with consultancy to licenses such as in Z-10 or J-11, or supplying engines like in the Y-20, J-31 or J-10 cases.

China already is in the global village.

However i understand the Chinese goal, the Chinese want to get the most of technological knowledge and manufacturing ability so in future joint programs they can be leading partners like in JF-17 or K-8.


The ability to make a jet does not make you to have the ability to sell it aviation is full of programs that backrupted their makers.

Russia is a good example, Il-96 has had mediocre sales, Tu-204 has had similar destiny despite these are good aircratf.

Y-20 has probably the posibility of becoming a profitable if it is exported, otherwise it will be a soviet style project that only the PLAAF buys.

Competition is strong these days, because globalization is increasing the ability of many nations to build jets.

Brazil today has a plan for a C-130 cargo plane to be sold by Embraer as a replacement for what many know is a good niche.

Indian and Russia with MTA are going to build a cargo plane to more or less directly compete with Embraer`s program.


For China, Y-20 will allow to build jets that in future programs might lead to a leading role in a joint venture.

For example a Ukranian-Russian-Chinese replacement for An-124 in a hypothetical case.

Or design an engine with Russia or even with India for a Airbus type jet.

Believe me competition is just heating up in aviation, and will heat up even more.

Embraer for that reason skipped the C909, MS-21, MRJ niche, since they know some of these projects will fail.

Having the ability of building a jet is something does not guarantee you success, See Ukraine, which struggles to build AN-124 and even An-148s.
Click to expand...

Out of so many thing you talk about. You miss a biggest point. The biggest market for aviation is in China. Ukraine fail because they dont have a market for it product. China will be a different ball.
 
MiG-29

MiG-29

Banned Idiot
Lion said:
Out of so many thing you talk about. You miss a biggest point. The biggest market for aviation is in China. Ukraine fail because they dont have a market for it product. China will be a different ball.
Click to expand...

No Ukraine does not fail for that reason, is the relations you make what makes you buyers.

Embraer is hardly sold in Brazil, in fact Embraer aircraft are mostly sold in Europe, the US and they have footing in China, the US with manufacturing plants, Embraer has connections with Japan, since E-190 has Japanese made wings, or by Japanese providers.

Embraer is the third largest aircraft manufacturer of the world. Sukhoi is similar, Russia did not buy Su-27s for almost 15 years, but Sukhoi is one of the most important providers of fighter aircraft.

You do not need to sell in your own market, in fact Europe and the US are still the largest markets with 55% of the market and China only has 11%

Source
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The prospects of growth say by 2030 China, the US and Europe will have a 20% each.

Y-20 as such could have give the experience to develop an important asset to China for 2025, however consider a prospect is based upon what they think will happen based upon the past, is not a prophecy but a prediction

Ukraine has failed because Eastern Europe only amounts for 1% of the worlds passenger share, and Ukraine has lost most of its markets to european, canadian, Brazilian and American manufacturers
 
L

Lion

Senior Member
MiG-29 said:
No Ukraine does not fail for that reason, is the relations you make what makes you buyers.

Embraer is hardly sold in Brazil, in fact Embraer aircraft are mostly sold in Europe, the US and they have footing in China, the US with manufacturing plants, Embraer has connections with Japan, since E-190 has Japanese made wings, or by Japanese providers.

Embraer is the third largest aircraft manufacturer of the world. Sukhoi is similar, Russia did not buy Su-27s for almost 15 years, but Sukhoi is one of the most important providers of fighter aircraft.

You do not need to sell in your own market, in fact Europe and the US are still the largest markets with 55% of the market and China only has 11%

Source
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The prospects of growth say by 2030 China, the US and Europe will have a 20% each.

Y-20 as such could have give the experience to develop an important asset to China for 2025, however consider a prospect is based upon what they think will happen based upon the past, is not a prophecy but a prediction

Ukraine has failed because Eastern Europe only amounts for 1% of the worlds passenger share, and Ukraine has lost most of its markets to european, canadian, Brazilian and American manufacturers
Click to expand...

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Boeing believe China will be the future for aviation industry growth. This included Cargo plane.
 
MiG-29

MiG-29

Banned Idiot
Lion said:
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Boeing believe China will be the future for aviation industry growth. This included Cargo plane.
Click to expand...
China is an important market, because it grows at 6.5% annually while the american at 3.3% but you forget that the US market in 2011 was 28% of the world`s; while China was only 11% so the growth of the US market is proportionally growing as fast as the Chinese.

The document i gave you never said Asia is not growing in fact they expect from Asia more orders than from North America, however you forget that China is only of the most important markets and still you have africa, Latin america and middle east that take another Chunk of the world market.

To put it in simple words, If a manufacturer has good sales in Africa, middle east, Europe, North america, Latin america and some of Asia it can be one of the largest.

In fact that is what Embraer, Bombardier, Airbus or Boeing do however they do sell aircraft to China.

Is China important? yes it is, i did not deny it.
But that is far from what you pretend to say, China is a very important market, one of the largest in the world, true, a promising one, but not the only one niether the largest.

Can Y-20 give to China the tools to create an important economic asset? certainly yes it can, however it does not mean it is the end of Airbus, Boeing, Embraer or Bombardier, it only means that C919 or Y-20 give the place China deserves as a large country and market.

It only means China is creating a new player that will heat up the competition, but as i told you sooner or later China will need to do joint ventures, and certainly Y-20 or C919 are joint ventures since many of their sub-systems are not Chinese.
 
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