China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

Franklin said:

The way I see this deal is that either AVIC is behind this or the owners of AICC has gone bonkers. Maybe China is not interested in the AN-225 itself but want the tech transfer to improve future production and future designs.

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Certainly they want the tech, regardless. However, there are several legitimate uses for this aircraft, including flying rockets and parts (e.g. CZ-5) to Hainan, flying aircraft components for large/jumbo aircraft around like Airbus does and the obvious military uses.

Its a smart move to buy something like this given the cost that would be incurred if china needed a superheavy aircraft and wanted to develop it from scratch.

The other thing that cannot be overlooked here is the political situation in Ukraine. I (my own opinion) is that the Ukraine is starting to sell what it can because it needs the cash but also out of pure spite to Russia.

subotai1 said:

The other thing that cannot be overlooked here is the political situation in Ukraine. I (my own opinion) is that the Ukraine is starting to sell what it can because it needs the cash but also out of pure spite to Russia.

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They sure need the cash but it won't damage Russia. If Russia needs more very large transports it would rather buy them from China than from Kiev.
BTW the availability of the engines for China is a price in itself.

Given that the AN-225 fuselage is already in storage and the similarities to the AN-124, I suspect the Phase 1 cost is really, really cheap.

Plus China will probably have a requirement for heavy/bulky lift in the future.

Hyvamethyst said:

Finally, in my opinion companies like Antonov and Progress are valuable strategic assets Ukraine has, it just seems like they might be giving away too much of that advantage in return for not quite enough, even if at the moment there's no utilization for those advantages. But then, no idea what the terms of the deal are, so who knows.

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Besides what delft has said, I also want to comment on this one.
Preserve precious human competence is more valuable than anything for Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine's problem in developing new industrial product is lack of capital investment and a gap of brain power. For capital, once the economy recover, it will be available almost immediately, but for brain power, if one or two generations scientist and engineers retired, you won't have competent people for decades.

If Ukraine keep the tech in a safe, their engineers will loose jobs, nothing to practice, no money to train and recruit, the business is dead. But if Ukraine sell it to China, preferably forming a joint venture, that will keep the jobs for Ukraine, and finance their future.

Buying the An 225 from Ukraine must also be seen as an attempt to warn off Russia to stick to its contracts as there are other sellers on the market (remember the incessant delays in deliveries of previously ordered transports etc.).
It also is a matter of common sense and caution not to become overly dependant on any single supplier.
It even just might be due to personal gain; after all who knows what the personal benefits to both signing parties were???
Only time will tell.

Is the D-18T even relevant for China anymore ? Its over 30 years old already.

Akkarin said:

Is the D-18T even relevant for China anymore ? Its over 30 years old already.

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The issue is probably simply: what alternative engine could power such a beast ?

For the An-225 specifically ? Nothing indigenous, at least not in the near-future.

But some posters are talking about the D-18T as if it has some large impact on the chinese aerospace industry instead of just being the engine that needs to be used in the An.

example:

Insignius said:

Do you realize what this means?

Technology for the D-18T turbofan engines with 230kn thrust. In China's possession.

The possibilities are endless.

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Akkarin said:

Is the D-18T even relevant for China anymore ? Its over 30 years old already.

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A 230 kN high bypass turbofan engine is always relevant. Even if its design is out of date now. China can still learn a lot from it for its own high bypass turbofan engine programs and the engine can always be modernized using the latest technologies and techniques available to China and the Ukraine. And the modernized or even the original engines can always be used for other platforms and purposes than the An-225.

The D-18T is obviously the most valuable part of the deal. The airframe has little utilities as it is too big, although it could potentially be used as the first stage in a two-stage-to-orbit vehicle.