China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

Blitzo

Blitzo

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superdog said:
Good investigation. If that is the case then this is not a fraud. But I still have serious doubts that they will be able to domestically produce and fly An-225 in less than 3 years. Building manufacturing facilities, sorting out supply chains, and getting all the personnel and training in place would already take years to complete.

You can't compare this with car assembly lines. The Ukrainians most likely do not have an efficient assembly line for the An225 because it is not a serial production aircraft, only one has been produced and the production has stopped for many years. Even if they do have such a system, it will still be very different from the mass production of cars. Because for cars many parts are highly interchangeable with small customizations, and the supply chain has been matured in China. For the An225 it is not the case, the system, the standards, the technical requirements, these would be quite different from what the Chinese are doing, and it will take time to sort out (adapt to the Antonov standard or change it to Chinese standards). Not to mention the whole thing is orders of magnitude higher in complexity than cars.

I also doubt that China would want to mass produce this thing as-is. The tech is a bit old, and this is not the most practical class of strategic lifters, as compared to the C5 or An124. Afterall It was designed to carry a space shuttle. It is reasonable if they want a couple of these for special needs, but I don't see them building this in the dozens. Yet if they only want one or two the most economical way is to just buy from the Ukrainians. So I believe there will be more to it, the manufacturing base, if built, will not be just for making the An225 as is.
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I've read that the first aircraft "to fly" in 2019 would be a rebuild of the existing second airframe in Ukraine, not a freshly built one from China. If that is the case then a flight in 2019 is quite viable.

As for An-225 production in China... honestly, who knows. They might end up taking the tech and scaling it down a notch to something An-124 sized and modernizing it, but that might actually be more expensive than simply modernizing the An-225 directly.

And while C-5 or An-124 are a bit smaller than An-225, they're not exactly that much more "practical" than An-225 especially compared to the likes of C-17, Il-76 or Y-20.
Projected operating costs of a modernized An-225 will probably be the sticking point.
 
superdog

superdog

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Bltizo said:
I've read that the first aircraft "to fly" in 2019 would be a rebuild of the existing second airframe in Ukraine, not a freshly built one from China. If that is the case then a flight in 2019 is quite viable.

As for An-225 production in China... honestly, who knows. They might end up taking the tech and scaling it down a notch to something An-124 sized and modernizing it, but that might actually be more expensive than simply modernizing the An-225 directly.

And while C-5 or An-124 are a bit smaller than An-225, they're not exactly that much more "practical" than An-225 especially compared to the likes of C-17, Il-76 or Y-20.
Projected operating costs of a modernized An-225 will probably be the sticking point.
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The original report says there will be a domestically produced one in 2019, that's what my comment was based on.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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superdog said:
The original report says there will be a domestically produced one in 2019, that's what my comment was based on.
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Yes, but Antonov themselves seem to be saying the 2019 airframe will be one that is rebuilt by Antonov themselves and delivered to AICC...

From their FB page, that I posted in #2728:
"The first stage of this interaction consists in construction of the second modernized AN-225 Mriya at ANTONOV Company and delivery of this aircraft to AICC. "
 
H

Hyvamethyst

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Well this is an incredible surprise, when the first reports surfaced in Chinese media I along with many others assumed it would be one of those hoaxes the small regional media outlets fall for so often. It certainly seemed plausible, considering the claims, the location, the company involved, and the banner that read "A-225".

I recall AVIC being quoted saying they'd produce something about this size, but I'm curious how many of them they'll make before moving on to something derived from it.
The civilian market only needs so many super large freighters, and the services of the current An-225 isn't even required all that often, so the primary purpose would presumably be military applications and acquiring the technology for research. I imagine the produced airframes will be the single-tail variant, but it's still an aircraft designed for airlifting a space shuttle, and just like NASA's converted 747 for the same purpose, it doesn't do all that well as a strategic airlifter. Not to mention, the technology is getting old at this point, and while it's certainly newer than the heavies currently in service, it's not by much. A modernization program would at best improve the avionics, since the other prime targets for improvement such as the material and engine are already beyond what China's industries can manage by themselves.

Since Chinese media has taken to claiming there will be a full technology transfer from Antonov and other companies associated with the An-225, including aircraft structure, engines, blueprints, and production rights, that would essentially make it a testing and training program to make sure they can actually do it before going with a domestic design. I'm rather doubtful of that claim though, considering it doesn't sound like Ukraine would be getting their worth from a deal like that.
 
Blitzo

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Hyvamethyst said:
Well this is an incredible surprise, when the first reports surfaced in Chinese media I along with many others assumed it would be one of those hoaxes the small regional media outlets fall for so often. It certainly seemed plausible, considering the claims, the location, the company involved, and the banner that read "A-225".

I recall AVIC being quoted saying they'd produce something about this size, but I'm curious how many of them they'll make before moving on to something derived from it.
The civilian market only needs so many super large freighters, and the services of the current An-225 isn't even required all that often, so the primary purpose would presumably be military applications and acquiring the technology for research. I imagine the produced airframes will be the single-tail variant, but it's still an aircraft designed for airlifting a space shuttle, and just like NASA's converted 747 for the same purpose, it doesn't do all that well as a strategic airlifter. Not to mention, the technology is getting old at this point, and while it's certainly newer than the heavies currently in service, it's not by much. A modernization program would at best improve the avionics, since the other prime targets for improvement such as the material and engine are already beyond what China's industries can manage by themselves.

Since Chinese media has taken to claiming there will be a full technology transfer from Antonov and other companies associated with the An-225, including aircraft structure, engines, blueprints, and production rights, that would essentially make it a testing and training program to make sure they can actually do it before going with a domestic design. I'm rather doubtful of that claim though, considering it doesn't sound like Ukraine would be getting their worth from a deal like that.
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I imagine if China does build An-225 domestically in some form, it will be a modernized version, at least with glass cockpit and modernized navigation/avionics and cargo hold ergonomics.
If they're more ambitious they could choose to use more modern materials for construction as well.

I significantly doubt they will build An-225s to the exact blueprint that they are supplied with, without modernization.
I'm also unsure as to whether they'd want to go with an entirely new domestic design -- that would invite a degree of additional risk and delay, whereas I imagine the military would be quite keen on getting some very large strategic airlifters as quick as practically possible.


As for what Ukraine gets out of it -- I imagine that if China really does build An-225 domestically, Antonov will be the prime source for consulting and expertise to help with setting up production, testing, etc, which will provide a nice source of jobs for their company, beyond the current agreement as it is.
 
H

Hyvamethyst

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Bltizo said:
I imagine if China does build An-225 domestically in some form, it will be a modernized version, at least with glass cockpit and modernized navigation/avionics and cargo hold ergonomics.
If they're more ambitious they could choose to use more modern materials for construction as well.

I significantly doubt they will build An-225s to the exact blueprint that they are supplied with, without modernization.
I'm also unsure as to whether they'd want to go with an entirely new domestic design -- that would invite a degree of additional risk and delay, whereas I imagine the military would be quite keen on getting some very large strategic airlifters as quick as practically possible.


As for what Ukraine gets out of it -- I imagine that if China really does build An-225 domestically, Antonov will be the prime source for consulting and expertise to help with setting up production, testing, etc, which will provide a nice source of jobs for their company, beyond the current agreement as it is.
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Well yes, there will undoubtedly be modernization, but the extend of which might be up for debate. Avionics almost certainly, but for the structure that might be more problematic. Given the nature of how these state-owned conglomerates work, I'm going to assume the C919 and Y-20 represent the pinnacle of what they can do at the moment, even if they are designed for entirely different purposes. Rumor has it both have had problems related to materials and structural weight, C919 especially, with COMAC not entirely trusting domestic aluminum fabricators being up to the challenge.

As to the new design, that's exactly what I'm speculating on. Produce several airframes for the military to get their large strategic airlifter as early as possible, get the training and operating practice going, etc. And after a while, rather than an entirely new design, work on something derived from the Antonov, maybe even like a heavily modified variant, that's more suited to specific operating needs and maybe taking note of strengths and weaknesses in domestic manufacturing, since it's still a somewhat aging aircraft with certain unnecessary features.

Finally, in my opinion companies like Antonov and Progress are valuable strategic assets Ukraine has, it just seems like they might be giving away too much of that advantage in return for not quite enough, even if at the moment there's no utilization for those advantages. But then, no idea what the terms of the deal are, so who knows.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
Hyvamethyst said:
Finally, in my opinion companies like Antonov and Progress are valuable strategic assets Ukraine has, it just seems like they might be giving away too much of that advantage in return for not quite enough, even if at the moment there's no utilization for those advantages. But then, no idea what the terms of the deal are, so who knows.
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Ukraine is a basket case politically and economically. Saving the jobs of the well trained people even is their job in China is well worth doing.
As for technology: wing spars are made with huge hydraulic presses. I well remember that in the sixties US didn't have a large press and built the wings of C-5 from a large number of parts. The result was that after a short time the cargo weight of these aircraft was restricted to 25 tons until new wings could be manufactured. Some time later France bought a 40k tons press in USSR which then was the largest in the Western World ( is it still? ). Has China a large press, perhaps for the production of parts of pressure vessels for nuclear reactors?
 
MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
Because Antonov still haven't release any official announcement or press statement, I still have very strong doubt of the news' authenticity.

Civilian market prospect...we know there are 26 operable An-124 in civilian operators' service and they're the go-to when you've very large and heavy cargo to fly to somewhere when water route is not possible. We know the operators worked their An-124 fleet hard but haven't exactly heard that there's a shortage.

But military there's another thing entirely, something that China would really want but not available...y'know, things like air freight rocket sections from production complexes in Mainland to Hainan, or IRBM/ICBM TEL for long distance fast transit, something like that.
 
Equation

Equation

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Dannhill said:
Here's another report. It's be interesting to see how many of these beauties China would produce.

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The AN-225 was developed in the USSR to transport the space shuttle "Buran." The heavy transport aircraft was to bring the ship from the place of production to the place of take-off, and could act as a carrier fir its first stage. The AN-225, was from its inception, and still today is the largest and heaviest aircraft in the world.
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I wonder if China's version of the AN-225 will be carrying a space shuttle of their own as well? Why not?:D:cool: Anyway if this news about the selling and producing of AN-225 is true, I will be spazzing. I love this big plane!:p:D
 
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