China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Yes, the highest level officials in US "intelligence" don't know the hell what they're talking about. And they make important strategic assessments based on what they "know" that are the basis of US foreign policy?

Yes that's why China should seek its own power enough to protect itself from anyone without regard to any other countries' feelings about it.

LesAdieux said:

so much "blowjobs" about THAAD from China before the deployment: if SK allows the deployment to go ahead, China will do this and this and this...and after the deployment, China has been looking for excuses to accept it quietly as usaul.

you have grossly over estimated China's capacity and will.

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Let's have a look at China's capacity and will.

• China is now the world's largest trading nation
• China is the world's largest economy in terms of actual output of goods and services.
• China is likely to become the world's largest economy in terms of exchange rate in the next 5-10 years.
• Back in 2014, China quietly passed the USA to become the world's largest spender on commercial R&D spending

• When there is an unfriendly leader in Taiwan, sanctions go on for years
• When the Dalai Lama is hosted by a small country, sanctions go on for years
• When there was the China-Japan island clach, the sanctions went on for years.

Based on the above, do you still think China will accept THAAD quietly and go on with business as usual?

sanblvd said:

I agree with your 2nd assessment, but for Option 1, I think just as you said that the prospect of China going to war with US is going to be a huge deterrence China, but I think it should be the other way around more, its actually even a bigger deterrence for US to wanting to go to war with China on Korea peninsula.

US didn't win that war 60 years ago when it literally had more than half of the firepower in the world while Chinese army was pure infantry, then it will not win a war today with a fully mechanized China near door.

What US is most afraid is casualty combined with unclear outcome, so in the end I think its far more likely that US will blink first and accept a ICBM capable NK than to going to war with China and NK.

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Now we get to the crux of the argument.

Who is more afraid of a land war on the Korean peninsula, and who will back down first if there is a crisis?

Is it China or the USA?

Because a miscalculation on who has the greater resolve will result in events escalating.

Remember that the neocons in the US may very well be thinking that now is the time to fight China, before it is too late to contemplate.

In comparison, the moderates may argue that the US has to accept that NK has ICBMs.

@plawolf

If SK wants a peaceful reunification, then they will have to swallow their distaste and offer the Kims some meaningful and lasting role in the new United Korea. So either a power sharing government, or make him the Queen or Empress of the new united Korea or sth big on symbolism but light on actual power.

But odds are it will require the death of Fatty K and a more acceptable Kim to succeed him for that to become a realistic possibility.

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Realistically, there's no such thing as an equitable reunification. SK has twice the population and an economy some 50x larger.

Even if SK offered Kim a symbolic role in a unified Korea - it means Kim will lose control of the police and the army. The population of SK already hates Kim. And after a few years of reunification, the population of NK will understand what has happened to them under the rule of the Kims.

And when the entire Korean population has near-universal hatred of the Kims, he is going to end up on the chopping block because he no longer has the police or army or political power to keep him safe.

In a unified Korea, the only escape for Fatty Kim is a comfortable exile in China, in exchange for his cooperation and keeping the nukes unused.

---

Did the Chinese turn against the CCP when China opened up because the outside world was more advanced and richer, or were they too busy making up for lost time getting rich and enjoying the new economic fruits on offer?

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These Chinese didn't turn against the CCP during the reform period because there was no alternative ideology or country available. Taiwan and HK are just too small. Plus they were still a military dictatorship and British colony when China started opening up and getting rich

In comparison, North Korea has South Korea right next door, which has twice the population and where people are 25x richer. The fastest way for people in North Korea to get rich is to be absorbed by South Korea.

Well, considering the most likely cause of an internal uprising would be a CIA plot, I don't think it would be out of the question for China to provide such assurances.

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A grassroots uprising is just not credible in North Korea. But a coup against Kim is distinctly possible, if orchestrated by China.

China is by far the dominant partner in North Korea for trade, investment, political exchanges and military exchanges.

So all the border guards, military commanders, business owners and political leaders in North Korea are in contact with their Chinese counterparts. And they know that if Fatty Kim gets into a war with the USA, only China can save NK or provide the NK elite with a safe exile.

The US has nothing like this.

AndrewS said:

Let's have a look at China's capacity and will.

• China is now the world's largest trading nation
• China is the world's largest economy in terms of actual output of goods and services.
• China is likely to become the world's largest economy in terms of exchange rate in the next 5-10 years.
• Back in 2014, China quietly passed the USA to become the world's largest spender on commercial R&D spending

• When there is an unfriendly leader in Taiwan, sanctions go on for years
• When the Dalai Lama is hosted by a small country, sanctions go on for years
• When there was the China-Japan island clach, the sanctions went on for years.

Based on the above, do you still think China will accept THAAD quietly and go on with business as usual?

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I think the endgame for China is for South Korea to drift outside of the US sphere, and at promote at least a "friendly neutrality," between ROK and herself. Antagonizing the South Korean people and government through economic sanctions will not be conducive to the long term goal, especially when from the South Korean point of view, they didn't really have a choice (superficially similar to how China felt when Trump through a tantrum over China not doing enough in North Korea). Over the past two decades or so, the South Korean people as well as government have grown to be more and more wary of US interference, and some would even go as far to say that there is a substantial level of resentment toward the US in Korea now. China should consider long term strategic goals and capitalize on such trends, rather than push SK away, back towards orbit around the US. Furthermorre, the ROK military is effectively under the command of the US military, so I'm not sure even how much of a say they have in such an issue.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I think the endgame for China is for South Korea to drift outside of the US sphere, and at promote at least a "friendly neutrality," between ROK and herself. Antagonizing the South Korean people and government through economic sanctions will not be conducive to the long term goal, especially when from the South Korean point of view, they didn't really have a choice (superficially similar to how China felt when Trump through a tantrum over China not doing enough in North Korea). Over the past two decades or so, the South Korean people as well as government have grown to be more and more wary of US interference, and some would even go as far to say that there is a substantial level of resentment toward the US in Korea now. China should consider long term strategic goals and capitalize on such trends, rather than push SK away, back towards orbit around the US. Furthermorre, the ROK military is effectively under the command of the US military, so I'm not sure even how much of a say they have in such an issue.

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I would say China's informal sanctions against ROK is doing just what you suggest. It presents South Koreans with a clear and stark choice: go along with the US against our interests, and you'll not be getting our business.

Is it a coincidence that shortly after THAAD deployment was approved, the SK president was impeached, and a much more China-friendly president was elected?

solarz said:

I would say China's informal sanctions against ROK is doing just what you suggest. It presents South Koreans with a clear and stark choice: go along with the US against our interests, and you'll not be getting our business.

Is it a coincidence that shortly after THAAD deployment was approved, the SK president was impeached, and a much more China-friendly president was elected?

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My opinion is that the impeachment of the SK president was actually coincidence.

She was actually pretty friendly to China, but got exasperated when she couldn't wean China from North Korea.

But I think a SK President may be able to do so in the future.

However, that would require a China which is overwhelmingly dominant in both economic/military terms on the Korean peninsula AND for that SK President to offer the termination of the US-SK military alliance and the removal of all US troops from Korea.

If there is a China-SK alignment, it's just a matter of time before NK is absorbed.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I think the endgame for China is for South Korea to drift outside of the US sphere, and at promote at least a "friendly neutrality," between ROK and herself. Antagonizing the South Korean people and government through economic sanctions will not be conducive to the long term goal, especially when from the South Korean point of view, they didn't really have a choice (superficially similar to how China felt when Trump through a tantrum over China not doing enough in North Korea). Over the past two decades or so, the South Korean people as well as government have grown to be more and more wary of US interference, and some would even go as far to say that there is a substantial level of resentment toward the US in Korea now. China should consider long term strategic goals and capitalize on such trends, rather than push SK away, back towards orbit around the US. Furthermorre, the ROK military is effectively under the command of the US military, so I'm not sure even how much of a say they have in such an issue.

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Yes.

So the question is how to persuade South Korea that an alignment with China is preferable to that with the USA?

1. From a military perspective, China would need a miltary that can overmatch the combined US/SK forces on the Korean Peninsula.

2. From an economic perspective, SK would need to be further enmeshed into the Chinese economic orbit (ie. more trade with China than the rest of the world combined)

3. From a cultural/political perspective, China needs to shed its negative image of poverty/restrictions/low-tech/etc. That requires hi-tech Chinese companies to go abroad and also for China to have a sophisticated media industry (eg. the Chinese bike-sharing startups expanding to the streets of Korea and Chinese movies/TV/film becoming popular in Korea)

The media industry is one of the most interesting at the moment, because there is going to be a huge wave of "quality" Chinese action movies in the future. That is due to the blockbuster success of Wolf Warrior 2, which is likely to be the highest grossing film of 2017 anywhere in the world.

For those not familiar with Wolf Warrior 2, I would summarise it as a Chinese version of Rambo who single-handedly saves black Africans from white American mercenaries. There's great action scenes but the storyline is way over the top and nationalistic.

If future action movies can tweak this, they should be able to travel around the world pretty easily because it is the action scenes that primarily sell the movie, rather than the language as demonstrated by Hollywood

And as any South Korean who has been to the USA can tell you, they've been on the receiving end of the negative stereotypes about meek yellow-skinned Asians being subordinate to Whites. So a similar movie with a yellow-skinned action hero beating a White American baddie should really resonate with the South Korean public, given the high level of anti-Americanism show in every SK opinion poll.

Today at 7:59 AM

Jura said:

now I read
US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman arrives in Beijing after Seoul visit
2017-08-15 12:36 GMT+8

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and
Senior Chinese military official vows to work through difficulties with US
2017-08-15 23:12 GMT+8

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A senior Chinese military official on Tuesday pledged to work through difficulties in the development of military relations between China and the US, according to a statement released by China's Defense Ministry on its official website.

Fang Fenghui, a member of China's Central Military Commission (CMC) and chief of the Joint Staff Department under the CMC said this as he met Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff who is in Beijing for a three-day visit.

"The Chinese military is willing to make efforts with the US side to strengthen strategic communication, increase strategic mutual trust, deepen practical cooperation, appropriately handle problems and disputes and effectively manage and control risks," said Fang.

Fang said Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump have together mapped out a blueprint on the development of the relations between the two militaries, and pointed out that cooperation was the only correct choice for the two countries, and that both militaries could certainly become good cooperative partners.

Dunford, for his part, said the two militaries should set up a communication and coordination mechanism, in a bid to enhance mutual trust and reduce misjudgment and friction.

The two sides need to resolve the existing problems in a constructive way, he added.

The statement said the two also discussed issues on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Taiwan and the South China Sea, and signed a framework agreement on a China-US military dialogue mechanism.

Before the talks, Fang held a welcome ceremony for the top US military official and accompanied him during an inspection of the guard of honor of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

Dunford just concluded his visit to South Korea on Monday.

After his first visit to China as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he is also expected to visit Japan over the next few days.

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now I read
Sanctions may cost DPRK 1.4 billion US dollars in 2017 2017-08-15 18:01 GMT+8

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The DPRK is likely to lose 1.4 billion US dollars of trade revenues in 2017 due to global sanctions on its nuclear program.

The country’s closest trading partner, China, has also suspended part of its trading with the DPRK.

Trade between the two countries is growing but the pace of growth has eased significantly. In the first five months, bilateral trade went up 14 percent from a year ago, much slower than the 37 percent in the first quarter, despite robust exports from China to the DPRK in April and May that raised eyebrows in Washington.

The DPRK is dependent on China's coal imports. Following the sanctions being imposed, China has not bought any coal from the DPRK since February. But there has been no trade data for crude between China and the DPRK since 2013.

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