People should not be so cocky without considering the consequence of strike against noko. It won't be pretty
What One Photo Tells Us About
North Korea’s Nuclear Program
By
and
FEB. 24, 2017
Experts who want to pierce North Korea’s extreme secrecy have to be creative. One surprisingly rich resource: the country’s own propaganda, like the photo below.
KCNA/Handout/European Pressphoto Agency
Images like this one might look silly, but they are rich with insights into the country’s military and politics. By using high-tech forensics and traditional detective work, analysts and intelligence agencies can use photos to track North Korea’s internal politics and expanding weapons programs with stunning granularity.
Several experts walked us through this photo of Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, unveiling what he claimed was a new nuclear device. But the image, from March 2016, may show more than Mr. Kim intended: the possible range of the missile behind him, his relationship with the military, even his precise location.
The Bomb
North Korea calls this its first miniaturized nuclear warhead, small enough to fit on a missile. Analysts call it the disco ball.
Jeffrey Lewis, an analyst at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, used the photo to estimate the device’s size, from which he deduced its weight — a few hundred kilograms — and its destructive yield, about 20 kilotons, roughly equivalent to the atomic bombs that the United States dropped on Japan.
But more important than yield was its small size – about 60 centimeters in diameter – which appears to match North Korea’s claim that it can fit on their long-range missiles, a major leap forward for the country’s nuclear prowess.
Wiring
Nozzle
NUCLEAR
WARHEAD
Plug
Analysts are unsure about the metal plug. It could be a routine component to trigger detonation or it could be used to inject gas, making the device more efficient. This would allow North Korea to build more warheads out of limited plutonium supplies, multiplying the size of its arsenal.
There’s also disagreement over the nozzle. Some suspect it’s a safety feature used to enter the nuclear “pit” just before detonation; others say it could be used to arm the warhead. Analysts hope new images will emerge that will help them solve these riddles.
The Missile
Even a glimpse of the intercontinental missile in the background reveals important information. David Schmerler, also with the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, noticed the white lettering, which is Korean for “support.” Missile airframes are fragile and so have to be rested where the frame is strongest — between the internal tanks.
Exterior of the KN-08 missile
The KN-08, shown behind Kim Jong-un,
is designed for a range of 7,200 miles,
but has had no flight tests to date.
AT LEAST 62 FEET
Source:NTI/CNS
By measuring the number and size of those tanks, Mr. Schmerler was able to effectively
the missile’s interior and deduce information like the type of fuel used. Altogether, this reveals that the missile is designed for a range of thousands of miles — enough to reach Washington, D.C., if the technology is perfected.
A Wave of Warheads
The potential range of North Korea’s current weapons, particularly the KN-14 and KN-08 missiles, would put most of the world in reach of its nuclear warheads.
Canada
KN-14
6,200 miles
United
States
KN-08
7,200 miles
Source: The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
By Troy Griggs
Melissa Hanham, also of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, is pairing these findings with a series of
North Korea has released of rocket engine tests, some for the KN-08. Analysis of the flame from the engine, particularly its color, confirm it’s designed to be able to reach the East Coast of the United States one day.
