China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
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Blackstone
Brigadier
It's not hard to believe Zhongnanhai would send in the PLA should US troops cross the 38th Parallel. We saw that movie in 1950, and there's every reason to believe there will be a sequel should it happen again. On the other hand, I could see a situation where Beijing and Seoul strike a bargain where China helps ease the DPRK into the arms of the ROK, in return for a list of demands which includes Finlandization of a united Korea, and US forces off the Korean Peninsula.
Finlandization is basically an American delusion. Between Finland and the Soviet Union, the latter was culturally, economically, and technologically decrepit and had nothing to offer the Finns. China, on the other hand, is technologically competitive, the second-largest economy in dollar terms, and is working on developing its soft power. If the Chinese don't screw up, a Sinocentric order in Asia is inevitable.
China and Korea, as a cultural entity, have no fundamental conflicts of interest. Chinese claims to Kogoryo are merely out of political expediency, and we can point to the Sino-Russian border treaties, as well as the ceding of Mongolia, to see how quickly the Chinese are willing to forget about territorial claims if they're politically expedient.
China and Korea, as a cultural entity, have no fundamental conflicts of interest. Chinese claims to Kogoryo are merely out of political expediency, and we can point to the Sino-Russian border treaties, as well as the ceding of Mongolia, to see how quickly the Chinese are willing to forget about territorial claims if they're politically expedient.
Don't know about the South Korean government but the Young 30 something Koreans I had a chance to interact with over the years all say they don't want a United Korea as it comes with a price that they are not willing to pay and the fact is they are not West Germany.
I don't think you've thought this one through. In order for China to ensure a favorable post-war order on the peninsula, it needs to have troops occupying most if not all of NK. In order for that to happen, the PLA will need to either go through the NK army or the combined US/SK army. It's obvious which army is easier to defeat, and I think you can see now why China needs to do the heavy lifting.
It's easier to say you want the Americans and the SKs to do the bud nipping, but it's entirely unrealistic.
Excellent, that's the type of reassurance I spoke of earlier that China needs to give NK--the unofficial and non-binding type that can make KJU feel safe to provoke a war so the rest of my plan can be set in action.
Agreed, "Finlandization" of the Korean peninsula would mean a unified Korea coming into China's belt, especially given the assistance that only China is uniquely positioned to offer to build up NK. This is essentially the goal of my plan.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Tell me something, Inst, what exactly do you think Finlandization means vis-a-vis China/Korea? Keep in mind the US would oppose such an outcome, if it has sufficient power to prevent it.
Vis a vis Finland, it meant that the Soviet Union had effective suzerainty over Finland, which was still sovereign, but had to consult Soviet leadership on foreign policy decisions. Vis a vis China and South Korea, it does imply that a united Korea would be as much in the Chinese camp as say, Belarus is in the Russian camp, but the specific details are more sketchy.
Do remember that talk about tribute to the Chinese is ahistorical nonsense. In most cases, the tribute trade was profitable for the tributary nation in that in return for acknowledging Chinese supremacy, the tributary was bribed off with more expensive return gifts. The actuality of the Chinese tributary system was closer to the Chinese bribing neighbors to indulge their delusions of grandeur than military extortion.
In truth, the Chinese tribute system is a misnomer and is better replaced with something less propagandistic.
Do remember that talk about tribute to the Chinese is ahistorical nonsense. In most cases, the tribute trade was profitable for the tributary nation in that in return for acknowledging Chinese supremacy, the tributary was bribed off with more expensive return gifts. The actuality of the Chinese tributary system was closer to the Chinese bribing neighbors to indulge their delusions of grandeur than military extortion.
In truth, the Chinese tribute system is a misnomer and is better replaced with something less propagandistic.
@ Blackstone: Check this out:
It's an argument that the American world system is fundamentally the same as the old Chinese tributary system. It'd be informative to you on the old Ming-Qing tributary system, and informative to others in its analysis of American hegemony.
It's an argument that the American world system is fundamentally the same as the old Chinese tributary system. It'd be informative to you on the old Ming-Qing tributary system, and informative to others in its analysis of American hegemony.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Generally speaking, the young have excessive ideals and passion, but governed by paltry wealth, experience and wisdom. That is why it's usually the old who decides policies and steer the levers of power, while the young pay with their blood and vigor.