The leader of DPRK, Kim Jong Un, has scheduled the dismantlement of its nuclear bomb test site for sometime between May 23 and 25. Kim has pledged to discontinue nuclear tests, marking a step forward towards the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
DPRK state news service KCNA reported on May 12 that all tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test ground will be collapsed with explosions. Entrances will be blocked, and all observation facilities, research buildings and security posts will be removed. The agency also said journalists will be invited to ensure transparency.
Donald Trump has tweeted thanks to the DPRK for its plan to destroy its nuclear test site, calling it "a very smart and gracious gesture."
Pyongyang announced the date for the dismantlement a month prior to Kim Jong Un's meeting with Trump in Singapore on June 12. It's widely seen as progress in the DPRK nuclear issue. But skeptics point out that Kim has yet to make any public commitment to give up his arsenal, which includes missiles capable of reaching the US. Washington says it's seeking "complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization" of the DPRK and stresses that verification will be key.
For DPRK, inviting foreign journalists to the highly sensitive military site to observe its shutdown may be another gesture of goodwill before the summit, as is has the just-released three American citizens, who were described as hostages by Donald Trump.
However, many analysts are skeptical that Kim, who only said the facilities were shut down because Pyongyang had completed developing nuclear weapons and there was no more need to conduct tests, will really give up his hard-won prize even for extremely generous economic assistance.
"The fate of autocrats like Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, who gave up their weapons programs only to be toppled in Western-backed military actions, has been noted in Pyongyang," The Guardian pointed out.
"Trump’s decision to pull out of the nuclear agreement his predecessor Barack Obama forged with Iran may also give Kim pause for thought about the durability of any deal he makes with a US president."
“It looks like a drama before the summit,” Stephen Nagy, an assistant professor at Tokyo’s International Christian University, told Deutsche Welle. "The two sides hope to enter the negotiations with the strongest position. Each has its own priorities for different issues. North Korea regards maintaining the survival of the regime as its basic position. And we must not forget what they are doing all these years. They are very good at this, and they are very likely to ask for prices, but they still go their own way.”
Nagy believes that Kim Jong Un has recently used the "being soft" strategy very skillfully. He has twice visited China and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He also held a historic meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. DPRK's enchantment offensive has begun to bear fruit. Not only has the Pyongyang regime been recognized, but both South Korea and China are also considering whether to ease the sanctions.
However, in Nagy’s opinion, Kim Jong Un has an intention beyond that. He will also try to obtain more returns from the international community by announcing his abandonment of the nuclear weapons program. “He may ask the United States and South Korea to cancel the joint military exercise. The United States may agree to change the exercise location to other areas far from the demilitarized zone, and he will also demand more development assistance to develop the North Korean economy.” Besides, asking the international community to lift the sanctions will also be the price that Kim Jong Un could propose.
A day before the DPRK’s announcement of the dismantling of the nuclear site, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “If North Korea takes bold action to quickly denuclearize, the United States is prepared to work with North Korea to achieve prosperity on the par with our South Korean friends,” during a joint news conference with South Korea’s top diplomat.
It only takes one month to get to the Trump-Kim summit in June. At present, both parties are rushing to express their positions on some key issues and both governments have emphasized that this meeting may be the best opportunity for the Korean Peninsula issue to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough over the past 60 years and the good opportunity cannot be missed. However, whether security in northeast Asia can achieve a substantial breakthrough or not depends on how the US and DPRK leaders have reached a deal. We will wait and see.
