China's strategy in Korean peninsula

33 minutes ago

Jura said:

now
"Update: North Korea nuclear test and missile launch ceased
International 2 hours ago
North Korea decided to discontinue the nuclear test and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch experiment from the 21st at the Central Committee meeting of the Korean Labor Party on the 20th and abandon the nuclear test site in the north."
更新：北朝鮮 核実験とミサイル発射を中止

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国際 2 hours ago
北朝鮮は20日に開かれた朝鮮労働党の中央委員会総会で、21日から核実験と大陸間弾道ミサイル（ICBM）発射実験を中止し、北部の核実験場を廃棄すると決定した。

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now I read
China welcomes DPRK's decision to suspend nuclear, ICBM tests
Xinhua| 2018-04-21 12:57:11

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China on Saturday welcomed the decision made by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to suspend nuclear tests and inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang made the remarks on Saturday in a statement.

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AssassinsMace said:

Because like before North Korea said they would stop when negotiating with the Clinton Administration and then the Bush Administration charged they were breaking the deal. Trump doesn't want to look like a fool especially when he likes to point to previous administrations' failures. The fact is the ultimate goal of the US is regime change in North Korea. Nothing short of that will satisfy the US even after Trump leaves office.

Just look at Obama at the UN meeting at Copenhagen during his first year in office. Obama knew no agreement at this summit was ever going to get passed Congress thus Obama would get blamed internationally for its failure because that's what happened to Bush at Kyoto. So what did Obama do to avoid that? He proposed that all the sacrifices for the environment are the developing world's responsibility while the developed world didn't have to do anything. That guaranteed a country like China would protest and reject and Obama could then blame China for failing the environment and the world so it would take the onus off of him and the US who would've been eventually caused the failure at Copenhagen. All that bull just so Obama doesn't look bad.

Saying that North Korea is not linking US troop withdrawal to North Korea giving up its nukes when that's not the case is setting up an out for Trump to save face if talks fail.

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Perhaps it's just dawned on Trump ,that after Kim's visit to China to pay his respects to Xi, that Kim can't agree to anything without Xi's approval.

Exactly. NK never explicitly dropped the condition for withdarwal of US troops - it was included as part of the "End of Hostilities" against his country demand that was open-ended, intentionally vague, and "catch-all" phrase to include US nuclear umbrella, US alliance with SK/JPN, US troops.... to give NK as best negotiating tactic and room as possible.

SK Prez said NK did not bring up troop withdrawal, but not bringing it up is not the same as dropping the demand... "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" logical fallacy. Unless we hear directly from NK itself confirm it, we can take what SK says with grain of salt, it's a biased actor that's pro-peace regardless of lies.

It's stupid for NK to broadcast it's list of demands (much less concessions) BEFORE the actual negotiations (Trump-Kim) summit has begun. (That would give Trump extra info to decide if he wants to cancel the Trump-Kim summit or not, NK wouldn't be that dumb to give extra info)

So the ONLY way to interpret this is that they are Hyping up the expectations and if it all fails, Trump will just blame NK for "over-promising" and "under-delivering" in a classic Blame style.

NK has given no concessions, no specific demands, no promises, nothing before the actual negotiations begin. This is typical Western media propaganda to shape public opinion.

North Korea Drops Troop Demand, but U.S. Reacts Warily....



" Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, has removed a key obstacle to negotiations with Washington by no longer demanding that American troops be removed from South Korea as a condition for denuclearizing his country, the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, said Thursday.

For decades, the reclusive country, an ally of China, has persistently demanded the withdrawal of 28,500 American troops in South Korea, citing their presence as a pretext to justify its development of nuclear weapons. The demand has always been a nonstarter for South Korean and American negotiators."

timepass said:

North Korea Drops Troop Demand, but U.S. Reacts Warily....

" Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, has removed a key obstacle to negotiations with Washington by no longer demanding that American troops be removed from South Korea as a condition for denuclearizing his country, the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, said Thursday.

For decades, the reclusive country, an ally of China, has persistently demanded the withdrawal of 28,500 American troops in South Korea, citing their presence as a pretext to justify its development of nuclear weapons. The demand has always been a nonstarter for South Korean and American negotiators."

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nytimes is probably stretching it. I would appreciate someone here to quote President Moon's words from a SK source before I make an assessment.

There is two interpretations, none of which means US troop withdrawal is off the table.

1) NK never explicitly brought it up, but wrapped it in a zongzi basket demand of "End of Hostilites" against his country demand.

SK President isn't lying. NK never mentioned withdrawal of US troops, but not bringing it up is not the same as dropping it.

The Media and SK tries to portray it as a concession from NK, but it is never explicitly dropped by NK and not independently confirmed by NK either.

2) NK acknowledged it won't expect US troop withdrawal as a PRECONDITION for starting denuclearization.

Precondition means "US withdrawal first, then NK begins denuclearizing process". US may very well insist on IAEA inspections to verify process and simultaneously reciprocating with troop reduction. Probably unacceptable for US to concede completely first then begin process for de-nuking.

So this still leaves open the possibility of US troop withdrawal Simultaneously with IAEA inspections.


I really hate SK and West media trying to portray NK as making concessions by omission and distortion of facts. these people aren't exactly explicitly lying, but they are misrepresenting facts and leaving out details never independently confirmed by NK.

NK has only made Goodwill gestures to the extent NK can ensure summit takes place. However, it does not entail core China-NK alliance interests such as elimination of THAAD and their auxiliary apparatuses, USFK Troops and Command alliance system.


The first advice on negotiating that Xi probably told Kim was to get THAAD out at minimum. Let's be honest, THAAD (and by extension US troops) has no justification to continue after denuclearization and end of Korean war with peace treaty/non aggression pact.

If THAAD (by extension US troops/bases) continue after denuclearization and ending of Korean war with peace treaty/non aggression pact, then we all will know the true intention of these equipment and system (it's a formal attempt to contain China's rise).

When NK says reciprocation of "US-SK Goodwill", it means US-SK don't try to moralize or shift the goal post and play victim card.

It's equivalent to Indian's playing victim card with their provocative "Forward policy".

These "forward outposts" of US bases on China's doorsteps is highly provocative if US keeps insisting they are purely defensive ... Yet NK's nukes is not purely defensive and for only deterrence against US troops? Give me a break with that double standard.

US has absolutely no reason to maintain troops in SK if the threat of NK nukes are eliminated, Korea war ended by peace treaty / non aggression pact.

Phead128 said:

US has absolutely no reason to maintain troops in SK if the threat of NK nukes are eliminated, Korea war ended by peace treaty / non aggression pact.

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Imperialism is never rational; it's driven by an uncivilized, irrational, animalistic instinct to dominate.

North Korea test site could be unusable after collapse - Chinese scientists

Chinese scientists have concluded that North Korea's nuclear test site has partially collapsed, potentially rendering it unusable.

The test site at Punggye-ri has been used for six nuclear tests since 2006.

After the last, in September, a series of aftershocks hit the site, which seismologists believe collapsed part of the mountain's interior.

On Saturday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced he was suspending his country's nuclear and missile tests.

The surprise declaration came ahead of historic talks with South Korea and the US...

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NK’s announcement of a suspension in nuclear testing is probably far less significant than many in the West would like to think.

Far more likely that NK geologists concluded that their nuclear test site is out of commission, so NK could not carry out more tests anytime soon, (i am, of course ruling out open atmospheric tests, which would be massively dangerous as the fallout could potentially land in a densely populated area in any of the neighbouring countries, and have the same effect as a dirty bomb attack) even if they wanted to.

This announcement thus costs NK nothing, but buys them a lot of goodwill and time.

Don’t be surprised if after months of digging in a suitable mountain and finishing a new test site, NK throws a random temper tantrum and restarts nuclear tests.

China would have developed a strategy for the Korean Peninsular. President Xi probably advised/convinced President Kim IL Jun during the latter's recent visit to China that it would be beneficial to have a dialogue with Trump, regardless of earlier threats & name callings: Trump "dotard" and Kim as "rocket man". The step-by-step strategy would soon be unfolding with Kim's Panmunjom upcoming meeting with President Moon of South Korea, & later with US President Trump. The problem with the US President is (a) he is unpredictable & can change his mind at a whim & (b) he is surrounded by a few hawkish advisors like Bolton etc. The region and the world will watch how the US-North Korean Leaders meetings would progress. A well known saying is "Pride goes before a Downfall" - hopefully the leaders of the parties concerned would take heed.