Just forcing it on China is bad enough.
China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
- Start date
Just forcing it on China is bad enough.
You got it. I agree with you 100%.
China doesn't need to offer a "Grand Bargain" because a) it doesn't believe US will start pre-emptively strike North Korea, b) SK ally has no appetite for war on Korean peninsula, and c) China already stalemated Korea, it has no fear of losing NK to US-SK military alliance in round 2.
So given this, time is on China's side. Let China become a economic powerhouse. Let NK eventually adopt the Chinese-Vietnamese model of economic reform and let a pro-China faction do a military coup to install a pro-Beijing puppet state in the long term to denuclearize. It's no rush from China's perspective to heed US demands for NK denuclearization when NK nukes are a distraction of US forces away from Taiwan and SCS.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
My goooshh this is petty. North and South Korea are finally ready to get together, show a small symbol of family unity at a global goodwill sports competition, and Pence's job is to roll around and be disruptive? And this is right after Trump, his president, is trying to take credit for North Korea's outreach as a good thing! Does every politician in Trump's cabinet think that coordination makes them too boring/predictable or something?
If I were a Korean in charge, I'd revoke his visa or more make sure his seat is in the general audience so he could look up and see the politicians from North and South Korea chatting and toasting in the upstairs closed door VIP box.
Mike Pence to stop North Korea 'hijacking' Winter Olympics, aide says
The vice-president, Mike Pence, will stop North Korea “hijacking” the , an aide said on Sunday, by using his own presence at the Games to remind the world “everything the North Koreans do at the Olympics is a charade to cover up the fact that they are the most tyrannical and oppressive regime on the planet”.
Such rhetoric contrasts with recent diplomatic exchanges between North and South Korea. The two countries will , which begin in Pyeongchang on Friday. They will also field a joint women’s ice hockey team.
Diplomacy around the Games has been hailed as a success, at odds with confrontational and from the White House and Pyongyang since Donald Trump became president last year.
Kim Jong-un’s deliverable to US soil has fuelled tension, as have Trump’s aggressive speeches and tweets on the subject. Last month, a false alarm of spread panic in Hawaii.
Trump, who has repeatedly threatened military action, criticised North Korea in his State of the Union speech to Congress this week, at which was a praised guest.
A spokesperson for North Korea’s foreign ministry the speech reflected “the height of Trump-style arrogance, arbitrariness and self-conceit”.
Pence is due and some early events, as part of an Asia tour.
The Axios website quoted the unidentified aide to the vice-president as saying: “At every opportunity, the VP will point out the reality of the oppression in by a regime that has enslaved its people. We will not allow North Korea’s propaganda to hijack the messaging of the Olympics.
“We are seeing unprecedented level of international cooperation on the maximum pressure strategy targeting the Kim [Jong-un] regime, and the vice-president will make clear that this maximum pressure campaign will only intensify.”
Axios quoted another unidentified government source as saying: “North Korea wants to make this about cute photo ops. The vice-president is countering North Korea’s desire to control the message.
“We’re not going to cede two weeks of world media to North Korea.”
In January, Trump spoke approvingly of the Olympic rapprochement, for which he appeared .
He said: “A lot of people have said and a lot of people have written that without my rhetoric and without my tough stance – and it’s not just a stance, I mean this is what has to be done – that they wouldn’t be talking about Olympics, they wouldn’t be talking right now.”
If I were a Korean in charge, I'd revoke his visa or more make sure his seat is in the general audience so he could look up and see the politicians from North and South Korea chatting and toasting in the upstairs closed door VIP box.
Mike Pence to stop North Korea 'hijacking' Winter Olympics, aide says
- Vice-president believes North’s presence ‘a charade’
The vice-president, Mike Pence, will stop North Korea “hijacking” the , an aide said on Sunday, by using his own presence at the Games to remind the world “everything the North Koreans do at the Olympics is a charade to cover up the fact that they are the most tyrannical and oppressive regime on the planet”.
Such rhetoric contrasts with recent diplomatic exchanges between North and South Korea. The two countries will , which begin in Pyeongchang on Friday. They will also field a joint women’s ice hockey team.
Diplomacy around the Games has been hailed as a success, at odds with confrontational and from the White House and Pyongyang since Donald Trump became president last year.
Kim Jong-un’s deliverable to US soil has fuelled tension, as have Trump’s aggressive speeches and tweets on the subject. Last month, a false alarm of spread panic in Hawaii.
Trump, who has repeatedly threatened military action, criticised North Korea in his State of the Union speech to Congress this week, at which was a praised guest.
A spokesperson for North Korea’s foreign ministry the speech reflected “the height of Trump-style arrogance, arbitrariness and self-conceit”.
Pence is due and some early events, as part of an Asia tour.
The Axios website quoted the unidentified aide to the vice-president as saying: “At every opportunity, the VP will point out the reality of the oppression in by a regime that has enslaved its people. We will not allow North Korea’s propaganda to hijack the messaging of the Olympics.
“We are seeing unprecedented level of international cooperation on the maximum pressure strategy targeting the Kim [Jong-un] regime, and the vice-president will make clear that this maximum pressure campaign will only intensify.”
Axios quoted another unidentified government source as saying: “North Korea wants to make this about cute photo ops. The vice-president is countering North Korea’s desire to control the message.
“We’re not going to cede two weeks of world media to North Korea.”
In January, Trump spoke approvingly of the Olympic rapprochement, for which he appeared .
He said: “A lot of people have said and a lot of people have written that without my rhetoric and without my tough stance – and it’s not just a stance, I mean this is what has to be done – that they wouldn’t be talking about Olympics, they wouldn’t be talking right now.”
Jura The idiot
General
China should explicitly warn South Korea that any attempts at developing independent nuclear deterrent will be met with overwhelming economic sanctions by China and Japan.
China should also warn that should South Korea acquire nuclear weapons, China will enact full-scale economic sanctions and cut-off diplomatic relations with South Korea, and also have Japan, European Union, and United States join in the sanctions as well.
China should also warn that should South Korea acquire nuclear weapons, China will enact full-scale economic sanctions and cut-off diplomatic relations with South Korea, and also have Japan, European Union, and United States join in the sanctions as well.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
And how is China going to dictate to Japan, EU and USA their foreign policies? I would think if SK want nukes, they got to ask uncle Sam permission first and have obviously got it. So US will veto ur idea.
Let's not make threat to someone who is not doing wrong for the moment (THAAD excluded, but a minor compared with nukes).
There are noises in SK calling for nuclear arms, but that is nothing worse than noises among some Chinese (language) writers/readers arguing China to somehow tolerate NK nukes. Making unwarranted threat to SK is counter productive to the situation and even worse, to divide SK-China relationship, only serving US interest.
If something eventually happens, China will do what she sees fit, WITHOUT relying or depending on Japan or anybody else. The LAST thing that any Chinese want to see is China buddy up with Japan to force somebody.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Am I missing something? Why are we talking about China, US, and Japan sanctioning SOUTH Korean nukes? I just checked the headlines and there isn't any news saying South Korea is going to have nukes or at least I haven't seen such an article, which I expect to make headlines... What are we talking about?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I was just about to reply that that was a very random and improbable post about SK nukes coming from seemingly nowhere.
Besides, as NK is demonstrating, sanctions does precious little to disuade a nation from pursuing nukes if they are hell bent on it.
The only proven effective way to stop a nation hell bent on getting nukes from doing so is the Israeli option.
If SK or Japan starts pursuing nukes, they will get only a short window (because of the speed at which they could leverage their advanced civilian nuclear industry to develop nuclear weapons) in which to cease and desist with comprehensive Chinese and UN verification inspections and monitoring afterwards till the end of time, or every one of their nuclear reactions turns into radioactive craters.
Sanctions won’t even be seriously considered.
Japanese nuclear weapons is a fundamental red line China will be fully prepared to fight a nuclear war to stop. It won’t be publically stated, but any Japanese leader who is stupid enough to doubt that will be reminded of it in no uncertain terms behind closed doors. Which will pretty much be their first and last opportunity to pull back before China swings its biggest (non-nuclear) hammer.
SK is just unfortunately caught in the middle, as usual, since if they went for nukes, Japan will almost certainly follow. And with tensions between the Koreas as they are, China will also not entertain the possibility of a full blown nuclear exchange between the Koreas.
China doesn’t want any nukes in Korea, but it isn’t prepared to fight a potential nuclear war to roll back NK nukes.
If SK ever want to unitify with the north under its primacy, total nuclear disarmament will be a non-negotiable condition from China.
Besides, as NK is demonstrating, sanctions does precious little to disuade a nation from pursuing nukes if they are hell bent on it.
The only proven effective way to stop a nation hell bent on getting nukes from doing so is the Israeli option.
If SK or Japan starts pursuing nukes, they will get only a short window (because of the speed at which they could leverage their advanced civilian nuclear industry to develop nuclear weapons) in which to cease and desist with comprehensive Chinese and UN verification inspections and monitoring afterwards till the end of time, or every one of their nuclear reactions turns into radioactive craters.
Sanctions won’t even be seriously considered.
Japanese nuclear weapons is a fundamental red line China will be fully prepared to fight a nuclear war to stop. It won’t be publically stated, but any Japanese leader who is stupid enough to doubt that will be reminded of it in no uncertain terms behind closed doors. Which will pretty much be their first and last opportunity to pull back before China swings its biggest (non-nuclear) hammer.
SK is just unfortunately caught in the middle, as usual, since if they went for nukes, Japan will almost certainly follow. And with tensions between the Koreas as they are, China will also not entertain the possibility of a full blown nuclear exchange between the Koreas.
China doesn’t want any nukes in Korea, but it isn’t prepared to fight a potential nuclear war to roll back NK nukes.
If SK ever want to unitify with the north under its primacy, total nuclear disarmament will be a non-negotiable condition from China.
The world community will unanimously pass an UNSC resolution imposing sanctions on South Korea. If the US dared to veto the UNSC resolution, it will be a huge black mark on US world reputation and credibility, since it would expose US hypocrisy on non-proliferation.
US will not veto the UNSC resolution since it will give impetus to other US enemies to abrogate treaties and get nuclear weapons (read: Iran), and if South Korea's biggest trading partners (China, Japan, US, EU) sanctioned them, the SK economy will collapse instantly.
Japan will automatically sanction South Korea, without China's asking. Japan views South Korea as a near-peer economic competitor in the technology field, and does not want to see another nuclear Korean power since Japanese traditionally look down upon Koreans (former colony). Japan is heavily anti-nuclear weapons nation with strong principle on anti-nuclear proliferation, so China doesn't need to request Japanese sanctions on SK, the Japanese would gladly impose it on South Korea to make a statement.
China should convey this threat of sanctions in private with South Korean leader. Not in public, but privately, so the South Koreans know the seriousness of developing nuclear weapons.
SK conducted it's nuclear weapons research in absolute secrecy in 1970's after US withdrew from Vietnam war. US intelligence found out and forced SK to abandon it's secret nuclear program.
It would be naive to believe that China should wait until mainstream media reports on SK nuclear ambitions before formulating a strategy to prevent it. By then, it would be too little, too late to impose sanctions since SK would have had years of secret nuclear development and a few prototype bombs.
Seeing as how South Korea had secret nuclear weapons programs in 1970's that was discovered by US CIA and under intense US pressure, shut down by US CIA.... some nations become nuclear "out of nowhere" when it's least expected because they conduct it in total secrecy.
As Iran demonstrates, sanctions does A LOT to dissuade a nation from pursuing nuclear weapons. NK was not integrated into international trade as Iran and SK is today, and NK has a Superpower patron that gives it backdoor aid to prop it up to avoid regime collapse.
Unless SK gets a free pass by US on sanctions, there is no way SK can survive a worldwide sanctioning campaign, just like how Iran could not survive and had to negotiate at the end of the day.
Iran was stopped from pursing nuclear development with sanctions. A nation that is well-integrated into international trade system like Iran and SK can easily be forced to give up nukes. NK was never integrated into international trade system and has a Superpower patron, so it's a apples to oranges comparison.
NK achieved nuclear weapons a long time ago, yet Sanctions are still being seriously considered. This logic doesn't make sense, you are saying that AFTER achieving nuclear status, sanctions won't be seriously considered. But NK has been a nuclear state for a long long time, so why is sanctions still being considered?
I would hope you are correct.
Totallly correct
I agree with these statements
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