China's strategy in Afghanistan.

weig2000 said:

Begin with trade, and select investment projects carefully. Large-scale and long-term infrastructure investments should wait. Coordinate with neighboring and stakholding countries (Pakistan, Iran, Russia etc.).

Click to expand...

Yes. I recently saw somewhere that China could start making new roads and repairing them. This is a very low cost investment which can provide immediate and visible benefits to the Afghan people.

Now for the larger projects, this would have to wait until we get a clearer picture of Afghanistan and how the Taliban will rule

PiSigma said:

Forgot to add, SA felt dangerous, not as Arnie advertised. Everyone was being watched. Not all those 20k are tourists, we were just there on tourist visa to do consulting. There is no sights to see or beach to hang at in SA, or stuff to buy. Really no reach for a real tourist to go there.

Iran on the other hand got awesome attractions that are open to non Muslim tourists. Food is great, and Persian girls are hot, I don't know what SA girls look like.

Click to expand...

That's two vs one now, so I guess SA is a heavy police state.

Look at other Central Asian 'stans'. The only ones that are doing okay (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) rely on energy exports. The rest export labor to Russia (which is becoming less friendly toward Central Asian migrant workers, I heard). And that's with decades of Soviet subsides, no major armed conflicts (a few border clashes and civil wars notwithstanding), low level of extremism and long tradition of secular government. It's hard to get excited about the prospect of 'nation-building' in Afghanistan when even a good outcome looks so meager. And honestly China should at most contribute to a UN-led international effort.

You guys are just simply engaging what is probably SleepyStudent in another guise?

Why bother engaging a troll?

The reality of the situation in KSA is likely to be more nuanced than what is being discussed here and I can see glaring points being skirted in the discussion.

eg; Personal experiences varies depending on who and where you are. Female in KSA vs Male in KSA experience vastly different vibes. Females enjoying life as an expat in foreigners only zones/compounds will likewise feel a different vibe compared to a female constantly coming into contact with conservatist elements in KSA society (you know ... like that 74% that prefer women to wear face coverings and stay at home)

eg; 300K foreigners live in KSA but .... ? How many are there as Oil & Gas expats? How many live in foreigners only compounds and live priviliged lives sheltered from interaction with mainstream, conservative KSA Muslims? The devil is in the details.

I highly doubt that KSA has transformed literally overnight into this modern, western styled, tourist mecca. One party on this forum is definitely giving a very PR spun view of what KSA could possibly be. Change is afoot certainly but I doubt that a society transforms that quickly. The 75% of men that want to see women in face coverings (not just head coverings) don't suddenly start opening doors for women and taking lip from them.

I'll agree that KSA has "officially" made moves to open up from it's closed kingdom stance since 2019. But I'll withhold judgement on this. Could be that MBS is really trying to reform the Kingdom into a more secular, modern society or could be he's simply dangling some carrots to gain popular support to oust the hardline clergy that has/had a heavy stake in Saudi politics. Go read more in depth reports on this, it's not quite all Saudi spring. It'll take a few years for this to play out that's for sure.

Bottom line. We can't expect everyone to share our POV and there's no point trying to convince a faceless, nameless stranger on the internet that he/she is wrong. Just leave your facts out there. Discerning readers will read both sides and make up their minds.

This is OT enough as it is.

OppositeDay said:

Look at other Central Asian 'stans'. The only ones that are doing okay (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) rely on energy exports. The rest export labor to Russia (which is becoming less friendly toward Central Asian migrant workers, I heard). And that's with decades of Soviet subsides, no major armed conflicts (a few border clashes and civil wars notwithstanding), low level of extremism and long tradition of secular government. It's hard to get excited about the prospect of 'nation-building' in Afghanistan when even a good outcome looks so meager. And honestly China should at most contribute to a UN-led international effort.

Click to expand...

I think this is where the US went wrong, same as the Soviets did. Both had unrealistically high expectations of what they could achieve. China has the advantages of having no delusions of a "civilizing mission" or grand vision. If she can cut a deal with the Taliban to keep unrest out of Xinjiang and establish a secure corridor to Pakistan and Iran then that's a big win. Anything else is just the cherry on the cake.

BERLIN, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Germany estimates there are still between 10,000 and 40,000 local staff working for development organisations in Afghanistan who have a right to be evacuated to Germany if they feel they are endangered, Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday.

Click to expand...

finance.yahoo.com/news/germanys-merkel-says-10-40-104025066.html

While the US is the biggest loser during the current Afghan withdrawal crisis, another big player, India, is also quietly nursing its wounds. India has become visibly isolated among its neighbors and the larger upcoming Eurasia geopolitical setup. It appears that India has had so much bad luck and significantly weakened ever since it allied with the US with a clear anti-China goal. Or is it just bad luck?

FireyCross said:

I think this is where the US went wrong, same as the Soviets did. Both had unrealistically high expectations of what they could achieve. China has the advantages of having no delusions of a "civilizing mission" or grand vision. If she can cut a deal with the Taliban to keep unrest out of Xinjiang and establish a secure corridor to Pakistan and Iran then that's a big win. Anything else is just the cherry on the cake.

Click to expand...

of course china has an unavoidable civilizing mission, it’s to wean the taliban from such pritive religions fundamentalism as would lead it to be driven more by perception of common cause with coreligionists than with secular benefits of modernization.

while at the beginning of every government, there will always be the goal of making the country more rich. the question is when it becomes undeniably clear that the needs of modernization would be incompatible with such interpretation of islam as would justify keeping a bunch of people whose main claim to personal value is religious exhibitionism, which will lose, modernization or religious exhibitionism?

Richard Santos said:

of course china has an unavoidable civilizing mission, it’s to wean the taliban from such pritive religions fundamentalism as would lead it to be driven more by perception of common cause with coreligionists than with secular benefits of modernization.

while at the beginning of every government, there will always be the goal of making the country more rich. the question is when it becomes undeniably clear that the needs of modernization would be incompatible with such interpretation of islam as would justify keeping a bunch of people whose main claim to personal value is religious exhibitionism, which will lose, modernization or religious exhibitionism?

Click to expand...

Ridiculous. China didn't give a hoot about what the Taliban want to believe in.

solarz said:

Ridiculous. China didn't give a hoot about what the Taliban want to believe in.

Click to expand...

the notion that china can safely ignore the power of religious fundamentalism in a neighbor is itself ridiculous. militant islamic fundamentalism ultimately has absolutely no conception that it’s influence ought to be constrained by any secular borders or institutions, even those of established or aspiring superpowers.

It is true there may be wider range of behavior that is more or less consistently tolerable to china at the moment had previously been the case with the US, but the center of gravity of taliban behavior is still likely to quickly move towards, and possibly cross to outside, of these relaxed boundaries.