China's strategy in Afghanistan.

solarz

Brigadier
For what's next in Afghanistan: I believe the best chance is a powerful and centralized secular or moderate Islamic government. The Kingdom of Afghanistan and the Republic of Afghanistan eras were fairly modern and good for Afghans. They don't need a monarchy back, but the strong, central leader is crucial for modernization.

How do you have a secular Islamic government?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
How do you have a secular Islamic government?
Something like Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria or Egypt. A government that has modern civil laws and institutions organized for the purposes of economic development, while still allowing Islam as part of everyday traditions.

This is as oppose to something like Saudi Arabia or old Taliban where there is a literal god-king, using shariah as the sole source of laws and the purpose of government is religion.

This is important because it is best for China if the government responds to economic incentives. A government that does not respond to economic incentives means China has a harder time influencing them.
 

weig2000

Captain
During the entire post pre-trump Cold War era the US had little real need to consider repercussion, both mid and long term, of its own action. So it’s foreign policy establishment is has long fallen out of the habit of doing its homework. Blinken’s entire career had been forged during that era. In effect blinken is a foreign policy specialist who cut his teeth in the era of wanting and not in thinking and real planning. In any other era, he would be called a career foreign policy hack.

Forget about Trump and his administration, which was a foreign policy disaster. Just look at what has happened since Biden took office. It's been astounding what they have "accomplished" in merely a few months.

Iran - A return to JCPOA was highly anticipated initially. That hope was almost completely dashed while hardliners took power in Iran now.

Russia - The halfhearted effort to win over Russia was dead before it could even start. Calling Putin "killer" and continued provocations on Ukraine and other issues made Russia more determined than ever to embrace alliance with China.

China - China held hope to at least establish some kind of normal relationship with the US under Biden administration. It sent two of its highest diplomatic officials to the remote and cold Anchorage to meet their counterparts, despite all the belligerent US rhetoric and actions before the meeting. The US didn't even bother to make some symbolic gestures (for example, agree to re-open Houston/Chengdu consulate offices); Blinken and Sullivan instead indulged in "from-the-position-of-strength" condescending and scolding against the Chinese (to score domestic points). That was the last straw. Immediately after the Anchorage meeting, China signed the 25-year, $400 billion strategic deal with Iran at long last; invited Russian foreign minister Lavrov to Guilin for close consultation; gathered ASEAN foreign ministers to China for meetings on regional issues. Russia and China are now in a de-facto alliance.

Afghanistan - The unfolding US withdrawal crisis.

So, in a short span of a few months, the Eurasia strategic and geopolitical landscape have significantly changed. A potential China-Russia-Iran block is looming, with the US/NATO out of the picture.

On the "friends and allies" front, which is the area that Biden promised the biggest change from Trump, Biden team has made a lot of efforts and noises, without much results of substance to show.

QUAD - much hope was placed on it, but it's almost dead on arrival, with India being mauled left and right and deeply weakened. The whole idea of the US's Indo-Pacific strategy (from Obama's Pivot to Asia) was premised on India's joining the clique, however reluctantly.

EU/NATO - The US was able to squeeze out some statements on human rights, Xinjiang "genocide" and, concerns on stability in Taiwan Strait (a huge accomplishment!). The allies felt enough pressure to have sent or plan to send some ships through SCS to demonstrate solidarity, with their journeys either staying away from Chinese territory or potentially adding a friendly port of call in China. Hard to imagine the US can rely on these allies in a Taiwan or SCS contingency.

ASEAN - The US is working hard on it, with high-level visits and conference calls. But it's been a tough sell and it's very difficult to image that the US can make much headway there.

To summarize, the diplomatic scorecard for the Biden team has been terrible so far.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
How do you have a secular Islamic government?

You don't. The term is meaningless, like "2+2=elephant"

More importantly, even the 'sharia' models that exist right now fail the test of being "Islamic." The key requirement for a truly "Islamic" legal framework is to have all constitutional-law derived from Quranic axioms alone. However, current 'sharia' models all fail this test. Most of 'sharia law' is a result of shenanigans like 'abrogation' and the 'consensus of the scholars' being raised to a level above the Quran. This is how they overrule the Quran with their own sectarian rules or the hadith, while pretending they are "Islamic."

Most Muslims have no idea this is even happening. Their priests/mullahs/muftis don't advertise this fact (they will only admit it when asked direct questions.) But a lot of good research has been done on this by actual academic scholars, like Wael Hallaq, John Burton and W.G. Clarence Smith etc. There have been a few Muslim scholars who've done a lot of good research on this issue, most notably, G.A. Perwez. But most of our so-called 'religious scholars' are sectarian traditionalists, who are just blindly following previous generation's scholars and their cultural traditions.
 
Last edited:

KYli

Brigadier
Why would you go after a fringe out of a fringe. Feminism in China is much more radical and has much more supports both within China and the West.
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Why would you go after a fringe out of a fringe. Feminism in China is much more radical and has much more supports both within China and the West.

Because according to the PRC Constitution, Chinese government has an obligation to prevent Han supremacism? Also the government is already checking the influence of feminist groups.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Because according to the PRC Constitution, Chinese government has an obligation to prevent Han supremacism? Also the government is already checking the influence of feminist groups.
CCP has suppressed Han and discriminated against Hans for decades to cultivate national unity and ethnic harmony. What more can you ask. Beside this isn't Han supremacy, it is just a regular frustrated dude that is venting his frustration.
 
Top