China's Space Program Thread II

[sangye]

I don't know where you got that diea from, but plans and proposals for at least 65 satellite constellations have been released by various Chinese entities. According to declarations made to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the total number of planned LEO satellites declared by China has reached 80,000. The need for reusable launch vehicles is therefore astronomical, as is the need for engines.

Well, given that the LM-12A will be only one of the multiple (8) Chinese medium/heavy lift reusable rockets in operation within the next 5 years, competing for a spot at Wenchang commercial launchpads alongside all the other (eight) players for a spot of the 60 launches a year? And this is assuming Wenchang-C3 and C4 are completed tomorrow.

Also, assuming they actually want to make it reusable and comparing it with the player that has captive the international market for themselves, there is "only" 17 Falcon-9 boosters concurrently in service at any given time (let us ignore Falcon Heavy), each with a lifespan of around 3 years before being expended, totalling a whopping 51 Merlin 1D in addition to 134 (2024 figures) expendable second stage Merlin 1D vacuum engines per year this figure doesn't even reach the 200 engines a year needed. And, again, in case you missed the first part, this is the most successful rocket company in history with a captive world market pushed by imperialistic ambitions of the hegemon nation.

And you want the LM-12A to use 300 engines/year? How? Where are you going to fit them? Where will they launch from? What sort of reusability should we expect if you require that many engines per year? Explain.

 

[taxiya]

There seems to be a missunderstanding of the 300 per year production rate. Here is link from CNSA in 2023.

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The 300 per year includes at least three type of engines, YF-102, YF-102V and YF-209. According to the link above, YF-209 is used for 2nd stage as well. We don't know if YF-102 has only one variant or two (one reusable and one expendable). We know that Tianbing uses YF-102 in expendable fashion. This is to say that there are multiple launchers using engines from this factory and some are expendable 1st stage and all 2nd stage engines are expendable. All together the number 300 doesn't look excessive.

More importantly, 300 is the capacity of the production line, not the actual number being produced every year.

 

[taxiya]

delete

 

[by78]

Well, given that the LM-12A will be only one of the multiple (8) Chinese medium/heavy lift reusable rockets in operation within the next 5 years, competing for a spot at Wenchang commercial launchpads alongside all the other (eight) players for a spot of the 60 launches a year? And this is assuming Wenchang-C3 and C4 are completed tomorrow.

Also, assuming they actually want to make it reusable and comparing it with the player that has captive the international market for themselves, there is "only" 17 Falcon-9 boosters concurrently in service at any given time (let us ignore Falcon Heavy), each with a lifespan of around 3 years before being expended, totalling a whopping 153 Merlin 1Ds plus the 134 a year (2024 figures) expendable second stage Merlin 1D vacuum engines this figure doesn't even reach the 200 engines a year needed. And, again, in case you missed the first part, this is the most successful rocket company in history with a captive world market pushed by imperialistic ambitions of the hegemon nation.

And you want the LM-12A to use 300 engines/year? How? Where are you going to fit them? Where will they launch from? What sort of reusability should we expect if you require that many engines per year? Explain.

I re-read my reply to your post and realized that I had lazily left out some important context. Let me flesh it out better this time. My point is that China's future launch needs and launch capacity will far exceed anything any company or country has achieved today. To use SpaceX as a kind of high (or mid) water mark is in my view too conservative. China's reusable launch market is in its infancy, with many horses currently in the race. A crucial competitive aspect in this race is lowering launch cost, and for that they need scale as soon as possible across the supply chain, which is why private upstarts and state stalwarts are feverishly building capacity. The vast majority of them will fail for various technical and economic reasons, but to not scale up at this early stage is fatal. The production line in question may or may not ever reach its full capacity, or it may even be abandoned entirely. Such is the nature of an industry in its infancy: waste and duplication is a necessary part of the process.

 

[taxiya]

Also, assuming they actually want to make it reusable and comparing it with the player that has captive the international market for themselves, there is "only" 17 Falcon-9 boosters concurrently in service at any given time (let us ignore Falcon Heavy), each with a lifespan of around 3 years before being expended, totalling a whopping 51 Merlin 1D in addition to 134 (2024 figures) expendable second stage Merlin 1D vacuum engines per year this figure doesn't even reach the 200 engines a year needed. And, again, in case you missed the first part, this is the most successful rocket company in history with a captive world market pushed by imperialistic ambitions of the hegemon nation.

51 + 134 to launch and maintain 7000 sats for now. SpaceX plans to go to 12000 or even 34400 in the end. Then you can imagine how many engines it need if you don't want to prolong the launch. The yearly production rate could be well above 400.

Now imagine 80000.

 

[sangye]

I re-read my reply to your post and realized that I had lazily left out some important context. Let me flesh it out better this time. My point is that China's future launch needs and launch capacity will far exceed anything any company or country has achieved today. To use SpaceX as a kind of high (or mid) water mark is in my view too conservative. China's reusable launch market is in its infancy, with many horses currently in the race. A crucial competitive aspect in this race is lowering launch cost, and for that they need scale as soon as possible across the supply chain, which is why private upstarts and state stalwarts are feverishly building capacity. The vast majority of them will fail for various technical and economic reasons, but to not scale up at this early stage is fatal. The production line in question may or may not ever reach its full capacity, or it may even be abandoned entirely. Such is the nature of an industry in its infancy: waste and duplication is a necessary part of the process.

I am sorry, but that's a nothing burger. I don't see how 300 reusable engines a year at this stage in the game is feasible or logical. By the time the launch capacity is nearing those needs, the mega rockets LM-9 size will be in operation and will render these first-generation reusable rockets obsolete which is why SpaceX stopped all investments on the development of the Falcon family. You want to future proof your industry you use these rockets as a stepping stone towards full reusable platforms like the Starship or the LM-9, not this. Might as well just build 300 LM-3 a year if you want to brute-force your way into a Starlink, this is stupid.

 

[taxiya]

I am sorry, but that's a nothing burger. I don't see how 300 reusable engines a year at this stage in the game is feasible or logical. By the time the launch capacity is nearing those needs, the mega rockets LM-9 size will be in operation and will render these first-generation reusable rockets obsolete which is why SpaceX stopped all investments on the development of the Falcon family. You want to future proof your industry you use these rockets as a stepping stone towards full reusable platforms like the Starship or the LM-9, not this. Might as well just build 300 LM-3 a year if you want to brute-force your way into a Starlink, this is stupid.

As I said in post

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it is not 300 YF-102 reusable, but including YF-102V and YF-209 vacuum, also production line like everything else has a margin.

 

[sangye]

As I said in post

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it is not 300 YF-102 reusable, but including YF-102V and YF-209 vacuum, also production line like everything else has a margin.

Oh, sorry, I have you ignored, so I don't see your posts.

 

[by78]

Guangchuan 01 and 02 have successfully established an inter-satellite laser communications link with a stable transmission rate of 10Gbps. The two satellites were developed by the private company Laser Starcom and are used to verify key laser communication technologies for large constellations.

Laser Starcom's Guangchuan 01 and 02 have successfully established an inter-satellite laser communications link with a stable transmission rate of 400Gbps. The two satellites were 640km apart during the test, and were able to transmit 14.4 TB of data.

 

[by78]

The Magpie Bridge constellation project, to be completed in three decadal phases, finishing around 2050. The project will not only establish a Lunar-Earth communications and control network but will also feature a constellation of remote-sensing satellites orbiting the moon.

On March 20, the China Manned Space Office announced that CASC has won the

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. Although I haven't been able to locate the press release on CMSE's website, I'm sharing it here because multiple outlets have reported this.