China's Space Program Thread II

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nativechicken

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tomboy said:
Does CZ-10B use methane as fuel? It's much larger than a Falcon 9 FT B5 (3.66m diameter, 69.8m tall) yet payload is alot less (18.5t for downrange recovery vs 16t).
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Very simply, FT9's maximum payload capacity is designed based on the optimal dimensions for a 3.7-meter diameter 2-stage rocket.
CZ10B has a larger diameter. However, its height is slightly smaller than FT9. This indicates its aspect ratio has not been fully utilized.
CZ10's aspect ratio can reach the level of FT9, which means a maximum height > 90m (currently it is a 3-stage configuration)
While CZ10B's maximum height is less than 70m. Therefore, CZ10B's current configuration is not its true optimal solution.
Secondly, there is the total thrust of the first-stage engines. This total thrust is not much greater than the first-stage total thrust of the Falcon 9.
However, the 5-meter vehicle body is significantly larger and much heavier than the 3.7-meter vehicle body, and considering the second stage of the CZ10 series is also actually on the smaller side
So it is normal that the payload capacity is a bit lower. Achieving 16t with first-stage recovery is already sufficient.
The design of CZ10 is an optimal design centered on a CBC configuration 3-stage rocket. The single-stick 2-stage configuration cannot possibly be the optimal design
 
Tomboy

Tomboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
sunnymaxi said:
2023 report card is not appropriate..

View attachment 166709

not comparing with USA.. but China's space payload has been more than doubled since 2023. look at the 2025 chart and it will continue to increase further.
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While no doubt Chinese launch has doubled in two years, US launch has also doubled, with the US likely going to push over two hundred attempts this year compared to 108 in 2023. The gap is not really closing as people expect.
 
Tomboy

Tomboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
escobar said:
LM-12A expendable capacity: 9t at 200km. Reusable capacity for a 200km near-Earth orbit is ≥6 tons, for a 500km orbit it is ≥3 tons
View attachment 166717
There is a CZ-12A version with 9 LY-70s and 4.2 diameter body.
View attachment 166718
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Well, the video explained why CZ-12A's payload stats is completely abysmal. They were suppose to conduct a 100km VTVL test after the 75km test but they rushed it and just instead modified and retrofitted the original 100km test article with a upper stage and called it a day.

This rocket's sole purpose, putting it bluntly is to land properly. It was never going to be a viable product.
 
G

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
klagla026 said:
Out of the first 10 Falcon 9 first-stage landing attempts, 9 failed to achieve a successful landing. So don't expect everything to work flawlessly the first time.

  • Sep 29, 2013 (Flight 6): – Failure (uncontrolled spin during descent).
  • Apr 18, 2014 (Flight 9): – Semi-failure (soft touchdown but destroyed by waves).
  • Jul 14, 2014 (Flight 10): – Semi-failure (soft touchdown but tipped over, hull breached).
  • Sep 21, 2014 (Flight 13): – Failure (descent controlled but insufficient propellant for full landing burn).
  • Jan 10, 2015 (Flight 14): – Failure (hard impact due to grid fin issue).
  • Feb 11, 2015 (Flight 15): – Semi-failure (soft touchdown achieved, but no recovery due to conditions).
  • Apr 14, 2015 (Flight 17): – Failure (hard impact due to valve malfunction).
  • Dec 21, 2015 (Flight 20): – Success (intact vertical landing and recovery).
  • Jan 17, 2016 (Flight 21): – Semi-failure (soft touchdown but landing leg failed, booster tipped and exploded).
  • Mar 4, 2016 (Flight 22): – Failure (hard impact from high-velocity reentry).

Meanwhile China already has extremely efficient rockets for satellite constellations like the Long March 8A and Long March 6A.
But once China figures out this landing properly, expect them to flood low earth orbit with their megaconstellations like they are doing with electric vehicles.
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Yeah but look at the details. The Falcon 9 achieved a soft touchdown with its second attempt, on April 18, 2014. Neither the Zhuque-3 nor the Long March 12A achieved a soft touchdown, and from the looks of it, the latter was quite far off. Even more frightening, it took a year and a half between the first soft touchdown success and the first recovery success. So by that standard, even if a Chinese rocket achieves a soft touchdown lets say next year, that could mean the road to an actual successful recovery will take until 2027 or 2028.

By that time, the U.S. will be so far ahead China's efforts will be virtually those of an also-ran. So the situation actually is quite dire and if China wants to remain competitive in space, more cooperation between competing efforts, more resources, and urgency must be brought to bear. Unfortunately that's where we are.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
Tomboy said:
While no doubt Chinese launch has doubled in two years, US launch has also doubled, with the US likely going to push over two hundred attempts this year compared to 108 in 2023. The gap is not really closing as people expect.
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China has 90+ launches this year while US sit on 190+ launches currently.

in next two to three years, China is going to close the gap in number of launches but payload will take time. there are bunch of heavy rockets coming next year with Wenchang space center planning for 3X more launch in 2026.

initial problem was, lack of launch pads and heavy rockets. this issue mostly resolved now. then comes reusability of Rockets.

we have some members who likes to exaggerate.. the situation is dire , need to cooperate , more funding.. which is absolutely no true. just coz two rockets failed.
 
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J

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
sunnymaxi said:
China has 90+ launches this year while US sit on 152-153 launches currently.

in next two years, China is going to close the gap in number of launches but payload will take time. there are bunch of heavy rockets coming next year with Wenchang space center planning for 3X more launch in 2026.

initial problem was, lack of launch pads and heavy rockets. this issue mostly resolved now. then comes reusability of Rockets.

we have some members who likes to exaggerate.. the situation is dire , need to cooperate , more funding.. which is absolutely no true. just coz two rockets failed.
Click to expand...

US is at almost 200.
 
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