China's Space Program Thread II
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Space Pioneer will conduct the first stage hot fire test in next few hours.
first stage hot fire test scrub for today
2024-06-27 15:47 Beijing
Xinhua News Agency: China plans to launch Tianwen-2 around 2025 to carry out an asteroid exploration mission, and Tianwen-3 and Tianwen-4 missions around 2030 to carry out a Mars sample return mission and a Jupiter exploration mission, respectively.
Small nitpick with the first translation but the first tidbit should probably be more like "The Keyhole can attain a resolution of 0.1m, and the Gaofen 11 can attain a similar standard". He didn't give a number for the Gaofen, which the original translation implies. Really interesting interview though.An of Mr. Li Deren of the Chinese Academy Sciences concerning China's remote sensing capabilities. Two specific tidbits stood out:
1) Gaofen-11 optical satellites have a resolution of around 10cm, on par with the most capable American counterpart KH-11 Key Hole.
2) Many Chinese observation satellites now have the capability of locating and tracking moving targets at sea with an accuracy of within 10 meters. Moreover, the tracking information can be quickly transmitted to end users within one minute via geostationary communication satellites and fiber optic and 5G ground networks.
If you look at the history of rocket development, there was a period of around 20 years from the early 1990s to the mid 2010s where rocket development stalled out and hit a brick wall, because the two leading space superpowers at that time America and the Soviet union/Russia were basically constantly shooting themselves in the foot.
America had issues with the space shuttle- the Columbia/challenger disasters, leadership issues at NASA due to said disasters, the fall of the soviet union meant that there was no one to challenge in a dick measuring contest anymore, which resulted in a constantly shrinking budget and no clear long term plan which resulted in various cancelled rockets and the over budget jobs program that was the SLS. Meanwhile the soviet union fucking collapsed... And Russia has been on a downward spiral ever since. Not to mention that the soviet union collapsing meant that China snatched up a bunch of ex-soviet rocket engineers and rocket technology transfers.
This was a once in a century opportunity where the two global leaders in a such a crucial technology basically stopped development for 20 years and nobody else really stepped in to fill the vacuum until SpaceX. And China completely wasted it. If China was smart, they could have used this 20 years to modernize and catch up to the cutting edge, start taking over the global launch market, establish themselves as the leaders in space. Instead of using this once in a lifetime opportunity to catch up fast, China instead stuck her head in the sand and started huffing hydrazine fumes while jerking off with the same 20 year rocket designs until SpaceX smashed past the brick wall and got the field moving again.
China has fallen wayyyy behind and it's embrassing itself by smashing hypergolic rockets onto villages, but it's really all it's own fault. Can you imagine any other important techologny field being stagnant for 20 years, say in semiconductors or A.I or biology and China just gave up on trying to catch up to the cutting edge? Now that rockets is in an active state of development again and a moving target, I wonder how much further China will fall behind. They couldn't catch up in a field that stagnated for decades, there's no way that the country can move at the pace that SpaceX is moving at.
I don't like the saying that "China cannot innovate and can only steal/copy" but it's basically true here. Imagine getting 20 years to catch up, doing nothing noteworthy in that 20 years and suddenly going lightspeed copying everything that SpaceX does once China realizes how important reusable rockets is.
America had issues with the space shuttle- the Columbia/challenger disasters, leadership issues at NASA due to said disasters, the fall of the soviet union meant that there was no one to challenge in a dick measuring contest anymore, which resulted in a constantly shrinking budget and no clear long term plan which resulted in various cancelled rockets and the over budget jobs program that was the SLS. Meanwhile the soviet union fucking collapsed... And Russia has been on a downward spiral ever since. Not to mention that the soviet union collapsing meant that China snatched up a bunch of ex-soviet rocket engineers and rocket technology transfers.
This was a once in a century opportunity where the two global leaders in a such a crucial technology basically stopped development for 20 years and nobody else really stepped in to fill the vacuum until SpaceX. And China completely wasted it. If China was smart, they could have used this 20 years to modernize and catch up to the cutting edge, start taking over the global launch market, establish themselves as the leaders in space. Instead of using this once in a lifetime opportunity to catch up fast, China instead stuck her head in the sand and started huffing hydrazine fumes while jerking off with the same 20 year rocket designs until SpaceX smashed past the brick wall and got the field moving again.
China has fallen wayyyy behind and it's embrassing itself by smashing hypergolic rockets onto villages, but it's really all it's own fault. Can you imagine any other important techologny field being stagnant for 20 years, say in semiconductors or A.I or biology and China just gave up on trying to catch up to the cutting edge? Now that rockets is in an active state of development again and a moving target, I wonder how much further China will fall behind. They couldn't catch up in a field that stagnated for decades, there's no way that the country can move at the pace that SpaceX is moving at.
I don't like the saying that "China cannot innovate and can only steal/copy" but it's basically true here. Imagine getting 20 years to catch up, doing nothing noteworthy in that 20 years and suddenly going lightspeed copying everything that SpaceX does once China realizes how important reusable rockets is.
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Different departments. Rockets=/=space station, or a Mars rover. This is like trying to give the PLAN the credit for the J-20. Why not give SpaceX credit for the James webb space telescope too while we're at it. Yes, other aspects of space development are moving fast, but rockets are literally the most important part of a space program and they were ignored for decades. The YF-100 is a good engine, but too bad that like there's like 5 rockets a year that's launching that uses the YF-100, compared to the 50-60 launches a year that China can output.
Is it not true that
1) The hypergolic rockets have basically been in service for like 30 years straight with no major upgrades
2) The modern cryogenic rocket roll-out have been progressing at a snail's pace and were introduced very late into China's development cycle
3) The pace is extremely slow for a rocket development. America went from first orbital flight to a super heavy rocket in 9 years. China went from making orbit in 1970 to a super heavy rocket in ??? years, because it hasn't even flown one yet.
4) The speed of rocket development has skyrocketed in the last 5 years, with dozens of different rocket and rocket engines designs, most of which are reusable and are of extremely powerful rockets, most of the dozen or so F9 clones can carry >15 tons to LEO, making them the 2nd most powerful rocket in China, only behind the LM5. Where was this speed 20 years ago? Oh yeah, no SpaceX to copy...
The CZ-5 rocket comparison is hilarious. China sent her first rocket into orbit in 1970, the CZ-5 made her maiden launch in 2016, 46 years. Do you know how long it took America or the soviet union from first orbit to first heavy lift rocket? Less then 10 years.
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What is so magical about a tiny market of Space Launching. By its very definition, launching things into space is costly that very few can afford. Only the most affluent governments can afford to launch satellites. Moreover, other than communication and surveillence, what else can you do with satellites? Moreover, developing satellites is the most costly part of the whole system, not actual launching.
Space is not a consumer facing technology. Its like submarine cable. Its important but a niche market.
If Space X wants to waste billions and develop new tech, go ahead. China will simply copy it and outproduce it to oblivion with cheaper cost. Just like AI, space launching is a bubble that will burst when the next US recession hits.
It is also impressive that the Jinlin constellation can detect and pinpoint “wild fires” with its infrared imaging sensor, send the precise locations to the firefighters on ground within 20 seconds. Replacing “wild fires” with “missile launch sites”, you have an early warning satellite system that can respond in real time.An of Mr. Li Deren of the Chinese Academy Sciences concerning China's remote sensing capabilities. Two specific tidbits stood out:
1) Gaofen-11 optical satellites have a resolution of around 10cm, on par with the most capable American counterpart KH-11 Key Hole.
2) Many Chinese observation satellites now have the capability of locating and tracking moving targets at sea with an accuracy of within 10 meters. Moreover, the tracking information can be quickly transmitted to end users within one minute via geostationary communication satellites and fiber optic and 5G ground networks.