China's Space Program News Thread
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Different or same payload?
The way I heard it is this:
A while ago the plan was for MSR to happen in 2030, using a single Long March 9 launch
More recently, post Chang'e 5 the plan changed to 2028, using a Long March 5 and a Long March 2B to create the stack in LEO, then head to Mars
If what Ruohong Zhao says is true then the plan is going to happen another 2 years earlier. Surely this would be done with two or more launches since there's no way Long March 9 will be ready in 2026. If this mission does happen in 2026 it would decisively beat NASA's plan for Mars sample return.
When is 921 rocket expected to be ready anyway?
If China goes for two launches approach, there is no need to wait for 921. Two launches of CZ-5 or CZ-5+CZ-3B would be enough. Note it is CZ-3B, not 2B. Both launches will enter Mars orbit separately, a month or couple of months apart depending on the launching method. Therefor, it has to be CZ-3B because 2B is a two stage rocket that can not send payload to Mars.
The detailed study is published as 火星采样返回任务轨道方案初步设计 (Initial mission orbit design of MSR) in 2019, the article was actually submitted in April 2018. This is during the time when CZ-5 was in trouble, killing the idea of two launches for a moment.
Since CZ-5 is proven reliable since the launch of Y3 in December 2019, the idea of two launch approach in the study becomes feasible. From now on, in terms of launching vehicle there is no difference between the mission in 2022 and 2028, the only unknown factor is the lander-ascenter combo which will be partially verified by Tianwen-1. In the study, the earliest date considered was actually 2026.
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Fair enough.
If this does go down in 2026 I wonder if it would cause a new Sputnik Crisis.
It won't go down.
US might contract SpaceX to do the Mars mission.
Thats not a possibility but a certainty.
One plan of SpaceX is to send components for a Mars base prior to Crewed launch.
They could task one of those launches to bring back samples.
"For the purpose of Studying the soil before sending humans"
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